Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Mike,
I'm not saying he can't do it, but I do think he's a huge risk. Most obviously, his game count in the last 3 seasons: 9, 6, 11. Secondly, it would appear just on the surface of it, some of those games were quite generous in their SC:disposals ratio. 21 to 23 disposals for 116, 109 and 100 is a little higher ratio than we'd normally suspect. Lastly, moves like this sound good, but rarely become permanent. If the opposition have a tallish player in the Forward line causing problems, who is the first person to get dragged from on-ball duties to mind him? Gilbert. He might play 18+ games, and he might average 90+, but I don't want to back him for either.



No. I don't think he can. See post #5348 above.



Grigg has been on the edge of breaking out since his debut season in 2013, where he played 5 games at the end of the season for: 29, 96, 90, 109, 89. You answered your own query, in that he has really struggled to be best 22 since then, and a few have gone past him in the last 2 seasons. No use taking a risky player, if the biggest part of the risk is the player even getting selected!



Nothing in my bag of stats, but I can give you some advice. There are probably only 5 or 6 genuine chances, and the best thing to do is, look at their draws. For example, JJK is probably favourite in most markets, but has a tough early draw, so is likely to drift in betting in the first 5 or 6 rounds. Franklin has an easyish draw, and could firm, etc. Keep an eye on their coming games, and bet accordingly. It can be a good market to get involved in backing and laying on Betfair!

Thanks mate love your work as always!

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hi Rowsus

Zac Williams is one of the gems you have uncovered and recent comments by the Ask the Coach indicates he is seen as in or in calculations for best 22.

Elsewhere on the site was a good analysis of all the players who benefitted from Mumford being out, primarily defenders.

Now Zac's scores cannot be compared (pre/post) given he didn't play a full game I think until Mummy was out, however, do we think maybe the 89 from Zac could have been inflated like Heath Shaw?

Will be watching his scoring rate through the NAB cup closely to assess whether we can still pencil him in for around 89 with maybe upside or whether it may be 80 with upside. Looking through prior years, without knowing his TOG%, he does look good for 80-85 as a minimum with natural progression possibly delivering better.

Not sure if you have to TOG% in prior years and scoring rate per 100%.

Thanks for all your hard work and quality insights.

 

[benderiffic]

G'day row, I was just wondering your thoughts on lonergan and hallihan with the news that swallow and o'meara look cooked for the early part. This question is more in relation to the draft format

 

[Manikato1]

SCOTT Lycett is not guaranteed a spot alongside Nic Naitanui following Callum Sinclair's departure to the Sydney Swans, with recruit Jonathan Giles and versatile tall Jeremy McGovern both genuine challengers for West Coast's support ruck role, coach Adam Simpson says.

"So that's a good sign for him (referring to Jonathon Giles)and then now with (Eric) Mackenzie coming back (Jeremy) McGovern might be able to flip and flop and maybe ruck at some stage as well."

There is an article on the current ruck situation at West Coast on the AFL website and above is a couple of paragraphs about McGovern and some possible ruck time.

Interested in your thoughts on this Rowsus.

 

[Manikato1]

And while I think of it I am interested in your assessment of Mitch Robinson as a FTB in your 2015 player review thread.

Is the assessment based on the 2015 season or career history? My understanding of FTB is that they usually only score well when their team wins and particularly against the weaker teams.

In 2015 Mitchell scored 8 tons. Three were against weaker teams (GC twice and Carlton) and the rest were not against teams I would call weak given 4 of them played finals and the other finished 9th (Port, Adel, North M, Hawthorn and WB).

Also of the 8 tons 5 were in losses and only 3 were in wins. He played some crap games in the first half of the season but he spread it around not just against the good teams (48 v St Kilda and 89 v Carlton). Just curious of that assessment if based on 2015 data.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Zac Williams is one of the gems you have uncovered and recent comments by the Ask the Coach indicates he is seen as in or in calculations for best 22.

Elsewhere on the site was a good analysis of all the players who benefitted from Mumford being out, primarily defenders.

Now Zac's scores cannot be compared (pre/post) given he didn't play a full game I think until Mummy was out, however, do we think maybe the 89 from Zac could have been inflated like Heath Shaw?

Will be watching his scoring rate through the NAB cup closely to assess whether we can still pencil him in for around 89 with maybe upside or whether it may be 80 with upside. Looking through prior years, without knowing his TOG%, he does look good for 80-85 as a minimum with natural progression possibly delivering better.

Not sure if you have to TOG% in prior years and scoring rate per 100%.

Thanks for all your hard work and quality insights.

Hi GFB,
Williams is coming into his 4th season, and in each of his first 3 seasons he seemed to play his games in 2 separate lots. He has played 31 games, so let's break them up into the 6 different periods.

Games 1 - 3
Rnds 5, 6, 7 of 2013 - ave TOG% 48%, SC ave 29, SC/100%TOG 60.1

Games 4 - 11
Rnds 12, 14, 17 - 22 of 2013 - ave TOG% 70%, SC ave 70, SC/100%TOG 100.5

Games 12 - 13
Rnds 5 & 6 of 2014 - ave TOG% 79%, SC ave 56, SC/100%TOG 70.3

Games 14 - 19
Rnds 16 - 20 & 23 of 2014 - ave TOG% 77%, SC ave 68, SC/100%TOG 87.9

Games 20 - 22
Rnds 6, 7, 8 of 2015 - ave TOG% 21%, SC ave 12, SC/100%TOG 55.6

Games 23 - 31
Rnds 12, 14 - 17, 20 - 23 of 2015 - ave TOG% 79%, SC ave 88, SC/100%TOG 110.2

There appears to be an upward trend there, and also, it appears the more games he can string together, the better he goes. I'm not too concerned about the Mumford/GWS losing factor. Williams wasn't playing Deep defence, and was more a half back wing, as indicated by his Ins50 and RB50 being close together (21 to 26). If he's had a good pre-season, I think he can cement a spot, and be a good pick. If he hasn't, hopefully that will show up in the NAB Cup, or he doesn't get selected!

 

[Rowsus]

G'day row, I was just wondering your thoughts on lonergan and hallihan with the news that swallow and o'meara look cooked for the early part. This question is more in relation to the draft format

G'day bender,
as you may be aware, I had Lonergan as a sneaky little POD. He then goes large in the NAB, and then Swallow dives out of the team 3 days later! (See what I did there? ). I think if he goes half ok in either of the next 2 NAB's, he will become a very popular midprice pick. Given he can be picked in the Def line, he is a much better pick than Hallahan, who is Mid only, and $80k more expensive. It's much easier at the price and position difference, for Lonergan to be a good pick, than it is for Hallahan. It's hard to see Hallahan doing better than a nice score here or there, but at his price, you need to average around 105. Lonergan only needs low 90's to be considered ok.
In the draft format it really depends on how deep your League is drafting. I was in a League that only drafted 150 players in total, and you probably are looking at a Hallahan type with your last pick in a League like that, just if you wanted a POD sitting on your bench. Once again, I think Lonergan might serve a better purpose in this format as well, than Hallahan would, but I wouldn't be trying to be too cute, and pick him too early. If he goes before you get to him, he goes. I think there will be similar picks available in the draft format.

 

[Rowsus]

There is an article on the current ruck situation at West Coast on the AFL website and above is a couple of paragraphs about McGovern and some possible ruck time.

Interested in your thoughts on this Rowsus.

The thing that interested me most, was McGovern playing Forward. His Rucking won't produce that many points, and I can't see him doing loads of it. But he is one of the better readers of the ball in flight, which makes him a good marking option in the Forward line. He's a chance to play from the square for a quarter or so, while JJK leads/pushes up. If he can kick 30-35 goals for the season, and still take the odd intercept mark in Defence, he could be a very good pick. Don't forget, those games he scored well in, in 2014, were often where he kicked goals. I will be watching his NAB closely, to see if we can nut out what his role will be! I said in my preview/review of him, that I thought it might be McGovern that benefitted the most from the return of Mackenzie and Brown, and not Yeo, like many others were saying.

 

[Rowsus]

And while I think of it I am interested in your assessment of Mitch Robinson as a FTB in your 2015 player review thread.

Is the assessment based on the 2015 season or career history? My understanding of FTB is that they usually only score well when their team wins and particularly against the weaker teams.

In 2015 Mitchell scored 8 tons. Three were against weaker teams (GC twice and Carlton) and the rest were not against teams I would call weak given 4 of them played finals and the other finished 9th (Port, Adel, North M, Hawthorn and WB).

Also of the 8 tons 5 were in losses and only 3 were in wins. He played some crap games in the first half of the season but he spread it around not just against the good teams (48 v St Kilda and 89 v Carlton). Just curious of that assessment if based on 2015 data.

To be honest, it might have been a bit unfair on him, and it was just 2015. He did average around 42% higher in winning games, than he did in losing games though! Technically, that makes him more of a DHS*, than a FTB.

* DHS = DownHill Skier

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Hi Rowsus.

Do you think Aaron Hall becomes a viable pick with the news about Swallow and O'Meara likely to miss the early part of the season and even Prestia in doubt for round 1.

I know these players have to come back at some stage but my thinking is that at worst I would need to trade Hall out at some stage but best case scenario is he stamps himself in the Suns midfield and keeps churning out good SC scores even when the other mids return from injury.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks mate.

 

[Adrenaline]

hi row

i apologise if you have covered this question this week. i know we cant take a lot out of the nab cup but it seems that tippett will be swans number 1 ruckman. I read your review regarding tippett and it seems very positive except he is not a durable player. in your opinion, is tippett a must have? do you expect him to avg 95-100 or more? and if you did include him into your team, would you place him in the fwd line or in the rucks?

Thanks row

 

[kakarot]

Hi Rowsus.

Do you think Aaron Hall becomes a viable pick with the news about Swallow and O'Meara likely to miss the early part of the season and even Prestia in doubt for round 1.

I know these players have to come back at some stage but my thinking is that at worst I would need to trade Hall out at some stage but best case scenario is he stamps himself in the Suns midfield and keeps churning out good SC scores even when the other mids return from injury.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks mate.

Further to Ben's question, would running with Longergan (D), Hall (F) and the great man in the middle be overkill?

 

[lappinitup]

Hi BC,
no, not all. I can see him being a good pick, but I can't see him turning into a must have. I'm hoping he might turn into a must have though!
But seriously, he'd need to average 100+ to be even considered a must have, and I'm not sure he can do that. I'll be happy with anything 92-93+, if I get to use him as Ruck coverage a few times.

Adrenaline, think the above helps with Rowsus' view on Tippet.

In terms of positions, rowsus and others have mentioned his average is helped by approx. 2-3 per game he fills in for your ruckmen, if you choose him as a forward. So believe most picking him, will hope for him to play the F6 role, and have a DPP in their rucks so Tippet can provide coverage when needed.

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus... absolutely dominating on here again this year.

I have a two part question. Last season Tom McDonald seemed to come from nowhere and lift his average from 70 odd into the mid 90's.

1- What changed in his game to get that increase in points?
2- Do you see any other players (that are similar to McDonald at this time last year in age, stats etc) that may do the same this year? (was looking at Hombsch, Nick Haynes and Michael Talia as possibles)

 

[siwel]

Hi Rowsus, can I get your thoughts on Sam Gray please

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus.

Do you think Aaron Hall becomes a viable pick with the news about Swallow and O'Meara likely to miss the early part of the season and even Prestia in doubt for round 1.

I know these players have to come back at some stage but my thinking is that at worst I would need to trade Hall out at some stage but best case scenario is he stamps himself in the Suns midfield and keeps churning out good SC scores even when the other mids return from injury.

What are your thoughts?

Thanks mate.

Hi BB,
Let's look closer at his hot streak from Round 17 on:

Rnd 17 - 100 - main Mids that day were: Ablett (15% TOG), Rischitelli, Bennell, Hall, Leading possession getters: Bennell (39!), KK, Hall, Lynch, Missing mids: Ablett (mostly), Prestia, Hallahan, Swallow, O'Meara

Rnd 18 - 92 - main Mids that day were: Bennell, Miller, Lonergan. Leading possession getters: Bennell, KK, Matera, Hall. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Rischitelli, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow

Rnd 19 - 150 - main Mids that day were: Rischitelli, Miller, Lonergan, Hall. Leading possession getters: Hall, KK, Lonergan, Matera. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow

Rnd 20 - 127 - main Mids that day were: Hall, Rischitelli, Lonergan, Bennell. Leading possession getters: Hall, Lonergan, KK, Bennell. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow

Rnd 21 - 139 - main Mids that day were: Hall, Rischitelli, Lonergan. Leading possession getters: Hall, Rischitelli, Matera, KK. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow

Rnd 22 - 95 - main Mids that day were: Lonergan, Hall, Matera, Rischitelli. Leading possession getters: Matera, KK, Hall, Lonergan. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow

Rnd 23 - 98 - main Mids that day were: Miller, Rischitelli, Stanley. Leading possession getters: Hall, KK, Rischitelli, Stanley. Missing Mids: Ablett, Prestia, Hallahan, O'Meara, Swallow, Bennell

There's a few things to look at there. First of all, look at the "main Mids" in his hot streak. This is based on who was winning the clearances, with a weighting on Centre clearances. It's not a strong list of players. Then rather at looking who will be missing Round 1, look at who comes back in. Ablett, Hallahan, in the early rounds Prestia will join them, and then possibly/eventually O'Meara. Also the list of highest possession getters in those rounds isn't that strong either. Hall is pretty inexperienced, so it is a bit harsh/hard to label him yet, but on last year it would look like he is SC relevant when he is the main man, but drops his bundle when pushed two or three back into a minor role. The question becomes, if you take the risk on him, is will he get enough games in, in the limelight, before Prestia/O'Meara come back, and how will he perform with Ablett/Hallahan in the team? Given his price tag of $428k, it all looks too risky, even though he is available in the Forward line. He only kicked 11 goals spread across 8 games in 2015, which would tend to say, if he's not getting a good share of those Midfield minutes, he'll likely to struggle to be a good SC pick.

Further to Ben's question, would running with Longergan (D), Hall (F) and the great man in the middle be overkill?

Given one is a Def, and one is a Fwd, I don't think so. You're not trying to pluck a Collingwood 2012 type result, where they had 3 Mids go 18+/120+. You're only looking for a mid-low 90's, a high 90's and 110+, so I don't think it is overkill at all, if you like all 3. Given 2 of them are medium-high risk, I would only take all 3 if you aren't taking too many risks elsewhere in your team.

 

[Rowsus]

hi row

i apologise if you have covered this question this week. i know we cant take a lot out of the nab cup but it seems that tippett will be swans number 1 ruckman. I read your review regarding tippett and it seems very positive except he is not a durable player. in your opinion, is tippett a must have? do you expect him to avg 95-100 or more? and if you did include him into your team, would you place him in the fwd line or in the rucks?

Thanks row

Hi Row. Tippet set to the bargain fwd you can't afford not to start?
Would love your thoughts as i recall he was in your plans early on

Hi BC,
no, not all. I can see him being a good pick, but I can't see him turning into a must have. I'm hoping he might turn into a must have though!
But seriously, he'd need to average 100+ to be even considered a must have, and I'm not sure he can do that. I'll be happy with anything 92-93+, if I get to use him as Ruck coverage a few times.

Adrenaline, think the above helps with Rowsus' view on Tippet.

In terms of positions, rowsus and others have mentioned his average is helped by approx. 2-3 per game he fills in for your ruckmen, if you choose him as a forward. So believe most picking him, will hope for him to play the F6 role, and have a DPP in their rucks so Tippet can provide coverage when needed.

Thanks lappinitup
Ad, If this didn't fully answer your query, then please re-word the question, and I will have another go at it.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus... absolutely dominating on here again this year.

I have a two part question. Last season Tom McDonald seemed to come from nowhere and lift his average from 70 odd into the mid 90's.

1- What changed in his game to get that increase in points?

Thanks for the kind words, Mudflap
The main thing that changed in his game, was he seemed more willing to back himself to run off his opponents in 2015, something he didn't do a lot of in previous seasons. This was greatly responsible for a rise in some of his key stats: Disposals up nearly 27% to 19, Marks up nearly 47% to 7, and his intercept marking was also up. Combine those with a 20% reduction in Clangers, and a 48% increase in CP's, and it's little wonder he enjoyed such a good season! Roos' main goal when he took over was to instill good Defence disciplines, which he did. He flagged in the pre-season of 2015 that it might be time to add a little offence to the defence, which he did, and players like TMcD got the license to back themselves in, when the occassion suited.

2- Do you see any other players (that are similar to McDonald at this time last year in age, stats etc) that may do the same this year? (was looking at Hombsch, Nick Haynes and Michael Talia as possibles)

Given I believe a lot of TMcD's improvement came from a game plan shift, it's hard to use it as a model to predict who might do something similar in 2016. The likes of Rance and TMcD seemed to gain more SC rewards in 2015 than they did in the lead up years. Was there some sort of paradigm shift? Who knows, but it didn't seem to match what we were seeing in previous seasons. I can't see any players that I can pin-point for that sort of breakout, particularly as a lot of their point scoring involved them running off their opponents. If you can find a tallish Defender, that has been recording some good time trial times in the pre-season, that might be a good starting point.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, can I get your thoughts on Sam Gray please

Hi siwel,
there are a couple of parallels we can draw on with S Gray.
He is similar to Aaron Hall, in that he made hay while the sun was shining, with Wines and Polec out. Will their return impact his role?
Secondly, he is the Port Adelaide equivalent of Tom Mitchell. He kills it in the lower level, in this case the SANFL, but can struggle if given minor roles in the big stuff. In 2013 Gray played 20 games in the SANFL, he was leading or second leading possession getter in 14 of those 20 games, and he was 3rd or 4th in another 3 games. His other 3 games were 5th, 8th and 10th, and he also kicked Goals in most of his games. Until the last 3 games of 2015 in the AFL, where he averaged 35 possessions, he had never recorded numbers like that in the AFL. Once again, we are left trying to guess what his role might be, and just like Mitchell until last season, what his JS is like. If you are of the opinion he has good JS, and will play more Mid, than small Forward, he looks like a good choice. If he ends up playing small Forward, he will end up being a poor choice. In the first NAB his role looked promising, but Rnd 1 NAB games can be deceiptive. Look for what role he plays in the Rnd 3 NAB, before you commit to him. You'd want to see lots of on ball time, before you spent $480k on what might turn out to be a small forward.

 

[Such is Fyfe]

Hi Rowsus,
Just wanted to get your thoughts on the set and forget ruck option compared to getting 1 premo ruck with a cheaper option?
I'm starting Stefan Martin and Lobbe, with the plan of getting rid of Lobbe at the 500k mark for Goldy, but I'm very indecisive because on one hand you can use the extra cash somewhere elsewhere to improve your team if I choose the Lobbe option but if I go Goldy and Martin then I don't have to waste a trade on my rucks unless there's an LTI.
Love to here your thoughts please