Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Mudflap · 1 Mar 2016

Rowsus there are a number of players in the 200 - 250k range that are tempting (Wells, Anderson, Mills, Simpkin, Weller, Crowley and more). How many of these types do you think you can select and what does a 225K player need to average to be better value than a 123K player?

Darkie · 1 Mar 2016

Darkie said:

Rowsus said:

Thanks Row, very helpful! That would be a substantial change, at about 10-15 points per game if it's 2-3 H2A ... so around 10% of a premium ruck's score. It's probably even bigger than I would have guessed.

I managed to find some data in the prospectus on which teams use the boundary the most. The "good" news is that the rucks from those teams are not overly SC relevant (or at least not popular on here). Collingwood, Carlton and St Kilda are all listed at 42.7-43.2%, with a cluster of teams behind that at around 38% (Adelaide, GWS and North all 38.1-38.5%). West Coast are mid-pack at 9th with 37.2%, so it seems like it's pretty even below the top three - ie, a similar headwind for most rucks.

Maybe we do get the drop-off in ruck scoring anticipated last year, just a year later than expected?

Rowsus · 2 Mar 2016

thommus said:

thommus,
it's hard to do any projections on that, as Dangerfield just didn't miss many games! My thoughts are, that Sloane should be ok, as he gathers a lot CP's, which can be translated as, he wins his own ball, and doesn't need others giving it to him. I can see him being a useful pick, but maybe more as an upgrade target. This allows us to see how he goes without Dangerfield, and gives Adelaide a chance to get through their toughish early draw.

Rowsus · 2 Mar 2016

Mudflap said:

Mudflap, I think the answer to that lies in your own answer to a different question. How many (base price) Rookies do you think will still be getting games in Round 3 and Round 4? If you think it won't present a problem, I would try and cap my selection of these more expensive Rookie type of players at 2. If you think it will be a problem, you might need to put 4 of these players you list, just to keep 22 players in your starting line up, without burning early trades to do it.

As to what these players need to do, to be better value than a $123k player, everyone will have different opinions. To my mind, they are taking the place of a player who's main job was to produce cash, so these players need to produce that same cash. Keep in mind, we are not comparing the $225k player with the first $123k player picked in your team, but with the last $123k player picked on that line. Generally the MN will tend towards 5000, in round numbers. With an approximate price difference of $100k, it means the $225k player needs to outscore the $123k player by 20/game. It can depend on the line we are talking about, but if you were hoping for say 55/game from that $123k Rookie, remembering he was the last picked one, not the first, then the $225k player needs to average 75. These numbers put the $123k Rookie on a course to be about $260-$270k when traded out, and the $225k player on course to be $360-$370k when traded out.

Rowsus · 2 Mar 2016

Darkie said:

Always happy to help, Darkie.

Just to further demonstrate the point, here are some stats on the top Rucks from 2015:

[table="width: 550"]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Ave Ruck[/td]
[td]Average[/td]
[td]Percentage[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td][/td]
[td]Contests[/td]
[td]Hitouts[/td]
[td]H2A's From[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]Involved In[/td]
[td]To Advantage[/td]
[td]Cont's Involved In[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Goldstein[/td]
[td]87.5[/td]
[td]14.1[/td]
[td]16.1%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Martin S[/td]
[td]75.4[/td]
[td]8.1[/td]
[td]10.7%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Jacobs[/td]
[td]82.7[/td]
[td]12.5[/td]
[td]15.1%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Sandilands[/td]
[td]67.9[/td]
[td]13.5[/td]
[td]19.9%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mumford[/td]
[td]84.8[/td]
[td]12.4[/td]
[td]14.6%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Naitanui[/td]
[td]58.4[/td]
[td]10.8[/td]
[td]18.5%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Gawn[/td]
[td]75.7[/td]
[td]11.9[/td]
[td]15.8%[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Blicavs[/td]
[td]34.1[/td]
[td]4.3[/td]
[td]12.7%[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

From the table, we can see that these Rucks are averaging 15.4% H2A's from contests they are involved in. If the number of contests drops by around 15 due to the new "Deliberate Out Of Bounds" interpretation, then these guys do indeed lose on average around 2 H2A's per game.

Gummers · 2 Mar 2016

Hi Rowsus,

Massive fan of the work you do. I know there isnt a lot of focus on Supercoach Draft, but I'd love your thoughts on who your first pick would be if you were late in the draft order (ie pick 9-10-11 out of 12 or 14 coaches). The league is of medium depth, but more importantly, has captains.

I'd say that (kinda obviously) that Fyfe, GAJ, Dangerfield, Pendles, Goldstein would not be available for those down the pick order.

Thanks!

Rowsus · 3 Mar 2016

Gummers said:

Hi Gummers, thanks for the kind words.

In a draft like that, you need to nail a Captain option, and a good Ruck option early. Both of those can disappear quickly in draft Leagues. Obviously Goldy fits both needs, but as you suggested, he should be gone by then. I would contemplate taking Martin/Sandilands as an option to fill both Captain/good Ruck roles as well. Assuming you've nailed the first 5 picks, I'd be looking at the likes of:
Hannebery, JPK, Priddis, Martin, Sandilands, Gray, Beams, and even Mundy, who had the equal most 100+ scores in 2015 with 18.
Good luck!

DicemanReturns · 3 Mar 2016

Don't forget about Heath Shaw, defenders are thin!

Dan45 · 3 Mar 2016

Darkie said:

Good job thinking of the deliberate out of bounds rule. Do you have the stats for the other teams (specifically Brisbane, given Martin will also be relatively popular)? Are there any teams who use the boundary substantially less than 37%? Also, does the prospectus do stats on how teams are attacked against? If some teams force their opponents to use the boundary more often, they would be affected in the same way.

Also, for Rowsus: I'm curious as to the reasoning behind the estimated drop of 15 throw-ins per game.

BigRuss · 3 Mar 2016

Dan45 said:

Good job thinking of the deliberate out of bounds rule. Do you have the stats for the other teams (specifically Brisbane, given Martin will also be relatively popular)? Are there any teams who use the boundary substantially less than 37%? Also, does the prospectus do stats on how teams are attacked against? If some teams force their opponents to use the boundary more often, they would be affected in the same way.

Also, for Rowsus: I'm curious as to the reasoning behind the estimated drop of 15 throw-ins per game.

Correct me if im wrong, but isnt the new deliberate interpretation NAB only?

THCLT · 3 Mar 2016

BigRuss said:

I think it's for the whole season mate as per the article from released on the AFL website on 17/12/2015. Basically, benefit of the doubt will no longer be afforded to players who 'deliberately' put the ball OOB.

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-12-17/afl-cracks-down-on-dangerous-tackles

Darkie · 3 Mar 2016

Rowsus said:

Thanks again Rowsus. Good % stats for Sandi and NN, if only they can get to a few more contests!

Dan45 said:

I don't think the prospectus has stats on teams forcing their opponents to use the boundary, although you're probably right about the implications of that. As for the other teams' percentages, Brisbane is actually right in line with WC. The only teams notably below 35% are Port (34.3), Syd (33.9), Geelong (32.5), Essendon (31.7) and Freo (18th). Probably only a notable positive (purely in a relative sense, it's potentialoy bad for everyone) for Sandi and Tippett amongst the rucks that currently look SC relevant to me.

BigRuss said:

That may be right BigRuss, I wasn't sure where to check that. I gather some of the NAB rules are being trailed for application this year, although I'm not certain whether the deliberate out of bounds rules is one of them.

Bomber18 · 3 Mar 2016

I think players will learn to "pretend" to make an effort to keep the ball in play and take it out under pressure. It might take a while though.

Darkie · 3 Mar 2016

Bomber18 said:

Just read this, for those interested:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-02-29/catspies-set-record-for-goals-bonanza-on-friday-night

Bomber18 · 3 Mar 2016

Darkie said:

average of 36 throw ins per game which is similar to last season, good to hear!

Rowsus · 4 Mar 2016

Dan45 said:

BigRuss said:

THCLT said:

Darkie said:

Bomber18 said:

I agree with THCLT. My reading of it is, it is in for the 2016 season. Certainly being practiced, and possibly "refined" for interpratation during the NAB, but I'm pretty sure it's here to stay.
I also agree with B18, that in many cases the players will learn to sell the fact, that they were unaware exactly where the line is to avoid being penalised.

Rowsus · 4 Mar 2016

Rowsus said:

Dan45 said:

Darkie said:

Bomber18 said:

I knew there was a chance I either mis-heard, or mis-remembered those numbers! I was actually mucking around on the internet about 3 or 4 weeks ago, and I found a site that broke up Ruckmen's tapout stats to Boundary throw ins/Centre bounces/Stoppages, but for the life of me, I can't find it again, so if anyone knows this site, or where we find those stats, please let me know.
So in the meantime, let's take a slightly different approach to work this out.

In 2015 there were 206 games played, which means there were 824 quarters. There were 5,176 goals kicked, that gives us exactly 6,000 Centre Bounces for the season. There were 17,707 Hitouts recorded for the season, so if we take the 6,000 off, that leaves 11,707 from Throw Ins and other Stoppages. Right there we can see I obviously got my Throw In numbers wrong, as that equates to a combined average of 56.8/game combined Throw Ins and other Stoppages. Of course, we need to acknowledge that not every Stoppage results in a Hit Out, so there are more Stoppages than Hit Outs, but let's ignore that for now. According to the link Darkie provided (thanks Darkie

), there are roughly 37 Throw Ins in a game, which leaves around 20 ball ups. Visually that seems wrong, but I'm not prepared to stick my neck out and say it is. If there are only 37 Throw Ins/game, then the number will likely only drop by 5-7 game, so the better Rucks may only lose around 4-5 points/game because of it. The 5-7 is just my guess, and remember, it is made up of Throw Ins lost to Free Kicks paid, AND where the player decided to keep the ball in play, due to the new interpretation.

Interestingly, we do know Sandilands Hit Outs from Throw Ins (423), which resulted in 120 H2A's. source

Such is Fyfe · 4 Mar 2016

Hey Rowsus,
What do you make of Weitering ? (Sorry if already answered) And what do you think of him at D4?
Cheers

Rowsus · 4 Mar 2016

Such is Fyfe said:

Hey SiF,
it's a bit hard to judge, from the little we have seen, but at the moment, I won't be touching him. Tall Defs traditionally aren't good scorers, and that goes double for Tall Def Rookies. Those that take him need to hope he averages around 75-80, otherwise a $123k Rookie that averages 55-60 will make the same cash as him.

THCLT · 4 Mar 2016

With the void left by Treloar at GWS, do you see any potential upside for say a Griffen or Greene type?

Griffen didn't have a preseason last year with a lingering back issue and was used mostly off the HB. From all reports, he's had an uninterrupted preseason this time around and have shed some kilos during the off season. Could he get back playing more of the SC friendly role like at the Bulldogs for this year hence potentially improving on his output from last year?

Greene didn't really kicked on from the back half of 2014 and his 2015 season was a bit of a step backward. Another year older and going into his 5th season of AFL, could he return to the form which saw him averaged 128.6 in a 7 games stretch to finish off the 2014 season?

If you had the choice of taking one, which one would you take?

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Mudflap

Darkie

Leadership Group

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Gummers

Rising Star Nominee

Rowsus

Statistician

DicemanReturns

Dan45

Debutant

BigRuss

THCLT

BBL|05 Winner

Darkie

Leadership Group

Bomber18

Leadership Group

Darkie

Leadership Group

Bomber18

Leadership Group

Rowsus

Statistician

Rowsus

Statistician

Such is Fyfe

Rowsus

Statistician

THCLT

BBL|05 Winner