Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Such is Fyfe]

Hey Rowsus,
Thanks for the insight on Weitering its sort of good then if he is pushing upwards of 20% ownership.
Was just wondering your thoughts on a good d4 option. I have Brodie Smith but im very disappointed with his lack of midfield time, so he forces himself out of my team. What your thoughts be on a potential POD in Macmillian, Johannisen, Rampe or Sheridan?
Cheers

 

[jarrad_]

are you still keen on zac williams after tonight?

looks like wilson could be a good option?

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus, Tippett's scoring from Round 15 to finals last year is the reason why he came onto a lot of our watchlists (through your Player analysis), but I was wondering whether his better scoring might have occurred due to Buddy's absence?
Does Tippett score higher without Buddy?

 

[Aenimist]

Hey Rowsus thought I'd swing you my first question of the pre season.

I've been on the Nicholls train for R2 for quite a while now (Gawn R1), and know you were hot on him too. My intention is to use him as a stepping stone of sorts into Goldy - but that is simply hoping/praying that Goldy has at least one bad game early to drop his price enough.

How do you forecast Nicholls scoring in the first half of the season and his projected price rise?

Basically I'm now just wondering if I find the cash for Goldy and be done with it - but I've resisted all pre season due to price alone!

Keen to hear your thoughts.

Cheers.

 

[siwel]

Rowsus, BOOMER.... yes/no and any insight you can provide on him to sway me one way or another?

 

[Rowsus]

With the void left by Treloar at GWS, do you see any potential upside for say a Griffen or Greene type?

Griffen didn't have a preseason last year with a lingering back issue and was used mostly off the HB. From all reports, he's had an uninterrupted preseason this time around and have shed some kilos during the off season. Could he get back playing more of the SC friendly role like at the Bulldogs for this year hence potentially improving on his output from last year?

Greene didn't really kicked on from the back half of 2014 and his 2015 season was a bit of a step backward. Another year older and going into his 5th season of AFL, could he return to the form which saw him averaged 128.6 in a 7 games stretch to finish off the 2014 season?

If you had the choice of taking one, which one would you take?

Obviously someone benefits from Treloar being out, but keep in mind in 2015, Shiel only played 14 games, Coniglio 18, Scully 17, Palmer 14 and to a lesser extent, Steele only 7. So there were plenty of missing players, even with Treloar there, so those players had opportunities to step up in a number of games last season anyway. Griffen had one good season, and two useful seasons, and Greene has never produced a useful Keeper season. Greene has the advantage over Griffen of being cheaper, and having DPP. Griffen has the advantage over Greene, in having "been there, done that". It is generally better to back a player to return to former levels, than to back a player to make it to a new level. Generally. I'm not particularly in love with either of them. I had Greene last year, and he was taken out of games at times, with just his opponent running with him, as opposed to tagging him. That worries me. If he has a strong NAB3, with plenty of on-ball minutes, I guess he becomes a bit more viable. There is the cushion of only needing him to average 95, as opposed to Griffen needing to go 105+. Greene is a chance to fill a cheapish F5/6, and potentially could do even better. The downside with him would "only" appear to be a weak F6 trap, to a failed value pick, that didn't lose much if any cash. His NAB3 should be the best indicator for you.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,
Thanks for the insight on Weitering its sort of good then if he is pushing upwards of 20% ownership.
Was just wondering your thoughts on a good d4 option. I have Brodie Smith but im very disappointed with his lack of midfield time, so he forces himself out of my team. What your thoughts be on a potential POD in Macmillian, Johannisen, Rampe or Sheridan?
Cheers

Hey SiF,
I agree. If we view Weitering as a poor pick, the more teams that have him, the better.
My thoughts on Macmillan (in 1% of teams) and Rampe (1.5%) should be well known by now, through my preview/review thread. It has also been revealed, that Sheridan (6% and growing!) has been in my team since before SC opened. Johannisen's popularity (1.8%) might grow after his next NAB game, if he performs well in what should be a near full dress rehearsal. Go Mac, if you think his legs are ok, or Sheridan.

 

[Rowsus]

are you still keen on zac williams after tonight?

looks like wilson could be a good option?

I'm not as keen on him as I was. I have 4 value Defs I am tossing up: Sheridan, Lonergan, Howe and Williams. I will start with between 2 and 4 of them. I really would like to see something a bit more positive from Williams in their last NAB, before comitting to him.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, Tippett's scoring from Round 15 to finals last year is the reason why he came onto a lot of our watchlists (through your Player analysis), but I was wondering whether his better scoring might have occurred due to Buddy's absence?
Does Tippett score higher without Buddy?

Hey B18,
Buddy played 19 H&A games in 2014, and 17 in 2015.
Tippett's break up for those seasons is:
2014: 11 games at 75.4 - the two games that Buddy missed, Tippett scored 44 and 57
2015: 20 games at 89.6 - the three games that Buddy missed, Tippett scored 86, 64 and 157. It should be noted, all 3 of those games were after Tippett took over the main Ruck role, and also Tippett/Buddy had two games where they both missed.
I don't think there is anything in those figures to support that Tippett scores better without Buddy. You could mount an argument for the opposite, but in the small samples we have, I will pluck for no Buddy affect on Tippett.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus thought I'd swing you my first question of the pre season.

I've been on the Nicholls train for R2 for quite a while now (Gawn R1), and know you were hot on him too. My intention is to use him as a stepping stone of sorts into Goldy - but that is simply hoping/praying that Goldy has at least one bad game early to drop his price enough.

How do you forecast Nicholls scoring in the first half of the season and his projected price rise?

Basically I'm now just wondering if I find the cash for Goldy and be done with it - but I've resisted all pre season due to price alone!

Keen to hear your thoughts.

Cheers.

Hey Aenimist,
the biggest problem we have with forecasting that is, we don't know what structure GC are aiming for. Will Nicholls go one out, with say Wright or one of the other tall Forwards giving him a chop out, or will Currie or Brooksby play? I think Nicholls could be useful one out, but won't grow much if partnered. With home games in Rounds 1 and 3 against Essendon and Carlton, you might easily get mis-lead. He might Ruck one out against them, but then get partnered against Fremantle, Brisbane and North in Rounds 2, 4 and 5. My guess is, the difference is as much 20/week, so it really is important. You would want a really solid lead in their last NAB, to commit to Nicholls. Most Clubs treat the last NAB as close to a dress rehearsal as they can. If he Rucks mainly one out against Jacobs in that game, you should have your answer, one way or the other!

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, BOOMER.... yes/no and any insight you can provide on him to sway me one way or another?

Siwel, nothing much has changed for me, since I wrote this in the table thread back on 17/12/2015

Brent Harvey (FTB)

Season - 22 games at 90.1 (2014 20 games at 107.7)
MCG - 2 games at 102.0 (MCG wins 1 at 109.0, MCG losses 1 at 95.0)
Etihad - 11 games at 80.5 (Etihad wins 6 at 89.3, Etihad losses 5 at 69.8)
Simonds - 1 games at 104.0 (Simonds wins 1 at 104.0, Simonds losses 0 at 0.0)
Blundstone - 3 games at 112.3 (Blundstone wins 3 at 112.3, Blundstone losses 0 at 0.0)
Interstate - 5 games at 90.4 (Interstate wins 2 at 122.0, Interstate losses 3 at 69.3)
Wins - 13 games at 102.3
Losses - 9 games at 72.4

Of note...
Harvey was green vested twice in 2015: Rnd 15 - 39, 36% TOG and Rnd 23 - 27, 39% TOG. When he wasn't vested he averaged close enough to 90% TOG, and close enough to 96 in SC. He also scored significantly higher in winning games than losing games in 2015, enough to call him a FTB. So there appears to be two scenarios with Boomer coming into 2016.
Scenario 1 - he is at the lowest opening price he has ever been in SC. He came in to 2010 with a 2009 average of 87.7, but opened at $499,300 in 2010. He has a built in discount with those 2 subbed games, which obviously can't be repeated in 2016. He has averaged 100+ in 8 of the 11 years SC has been running, so all in all, he's a great pick, and we'd all be crazy to overlook him.
Scenario 2 - those vested games were a warning. Boomer is likely to get rested during the season, or get managed game time, and have some games where his TOG% will be significantly below his recent near 90% average. Those things will combine to throw in 2 or 3 lower scores, and 2 or 3 games where you'll need to use a bench player to cover him. Add in the fact that North have a tougher draw this season, and might win fewer games in 2016. All in all, it makes him too risky.
It's also interesting to note his ground size break up:
Small grounds - 13/80.2 (11/88.8 w/out 2 subbed games) (wins - 7/91.4, losses 6/67.2 (4/80.5 w/out sub games))
Medium grounds - 4/99.5 (2/122.0, losses 2/77.0)
Large grounds - 5/108.2 (wins 4/111.5, losses 1/95.0)
Medium and Large grounds combined 9/104.3 (wins 6/115.0, losses 3/83.0)
Nth Draw in 2016: SMLSMSSSSSLSSS[bye]MSSSSLLS - Interstate games

He still might be given games with 50-60% TOG, as mini rests. That type of thing wasn't unheard of, before we had vests.

I think he will look a really useful pick, in many games, but might struggle to live up to a season long "good pick". If he does "fail", it won't be by much though, but still enough to annoy you!

 

[jarrad_]

thanks for the reply regarding williams

what do you make of aaron mullet?

went pretty well on the weekend and is only 199k

hopefully he scores as well with one of your fav's mcmillan back this week

 

[Rowsus]

thanks for the reply regarding williams

what do you make of aaron mullet?

went pretty well on the weekend and is only 199k

hopefully he scores as well with one of your fav's mcmillan back this week

Always happy to help ,
Mullet's a 24yo coming into his 6th season, and has only played 52 games. He has never averaged in the 80's. It would surprise me if he suddenly became SC relevant.

 

[Aenimist]

Good call mate. Will keep an eye out on NAB 3.

 

[manyproblems]

Nick Riewoldt, I want him. His move to the wing and change to rotations this year will help his SC game. Before the game went fitness mad (2012), Nick was ahead of everyone being the fittest key forward and possibly fittest in the league with all the running and marks up the ground. When Richo moved to the wing (2008?), his SC went from 82 to 97. Without the concussion game last year, Roo would have averaged 95. Do you think he can be a good pick? I need a 495k- F3 and I'm thinking Roo or Boomer but leaning towards Roo. Do you think Nick can be a good pick?

 

[Bomber18]

Thanks for the response Rowsus! Adding the finals games where Tippett had high scores too without buddy had me thinking, but the sample size is just too small as you said.

 

[Slammer]

G'day Rowsus,

How are you?

This is my first thread this season and haven't really had much time to get my team organised just yet. I guess it starts now.
Great to see you are back in fine form again answering all these posts. Your work is outstanding and much appreciated. Thankyou.

My first question and apologies if you have answered previously is the Ruck. I am looking at staying away from Goldy and Martin purely due to their price. It seems to rob me of other positions in my team.
Am I mad? Or do I need to have at least one of them in my team?

Cheers

 

[The Misfit]

are you still keen on zac williams after tonight?

looks like wilson could be a good option?

Convert scores to TOG output and Williams is front, I think they will both play FWIW

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,
How do you think reduced interchange numbers will affect the scoring of players with poor durability? Looking at Dustin Martin as a selection in particular

 

[jarrad_]

Convert scores to TOG output and Williams is front, I think they will both play FWIW

i knew they would both play but i think that wilson will take to many of williams's points to be worth it