Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Just wanted to get your thoughts on the set and forget ruck option compared to getting 1 premo ruck with a cheaper option?
I'm starting Stefan Martin and Lobbe, with the plan of getting rid of Lobbe at the 500k mark for Goldy, but I'm very indecisive because on one hand you can use the extra cash somewhere elsewhere to improve your team if I choose the Lobbe option but if I go Goldy and Martin then I don't have to waste a trade on my rucks unless there's an LTI.
Love to here your thoughts please

Hi SiF,
I think if you're not starting Goldy, then Martin and a value pick is the best way to go, imo. I am currently in that boat, but I am having trouble identifying a value pick! I have no confidence in Lobbe hitting $500k, but against that, I have no confidence in any of the other Rucks increasing significantly in value either! History shows us, that going in with last seasons R1/R2 as your starting Rucks has been a regrettable choice. That doesn't mean that will be the case this season, but when you add in the fact that it has never cost more to start last seasons R1/R2, it just adds to the risk. You also have to weigh up, will it take 3 trades to bring Goldy in later? If you are of the opinion it will, or will be close to 3 trades, then you should start him. 3 trade upgrades are terrible and wasteful. Apart from your two Captain choices, I think this situation (needing 3 trades to bring them in later) is the only other acceptable excuse to pay what you are pretty sure is overs for a player. If you think you can bring Goldy in down the track using 2 - 2.5 trades, then don't start him, and pounce when the price is right.

 

[siwel]

Hi siwel,
there are a couple of parallels we can draw on with S Gray.
He is similar to Aaron Hall, in that he made hay while the sun was shining, with Wines and Polec out. Will their return impact his role?
Secondly, he is the Port Adelaide equivalent of Tom Mitchell. He kills it in the lower level, in this case the SANFL, but can struggle if given minor roles in the big stuff. In 2013 Gray played 20 games in the SANFL, he was leading or second leading possession getter in 14 of those 20 games, and he was 3rd or 4th in another 3 games. His other 3 games were 5th, 8th and 10th, and he also kicked Goals in most of his games. Until the last 3 games of 2015 in the AFL, where he averaged 35 possessions, he had never recorded numbers like that in the AFL. Once again, we are left trying to guess what his role might be, and just like Mitchell until last season, what his JS is like. If you are of the opinion he has good JS, and will play more Mid, than small Forward, he looks like a good choice. If he ends up playing small Forward, he will end up being a poor choice. In the first NAB his role looked promising, but Rnd 1 NAB games can be deceiptive. Look for what role he plays in the Rnd 3 NAB, before you commit to him. You'd want to see lots of on ball time, before you spent $480k on what might turn out to be a small forward.

Thanks mate, very much appreciated

 

[Dannyk]

What do we make of Jake Stringer???

Is he a chance to improve his output again this year and become a bonafide 500k+ premo?
Potentially a few occasional bursts in the midfield and that x factor up forward that will increase his scoring average.

Or is he a potential trap with doggies harder draw?

As a rule a I try and avoid key position forwards but he is an interesting prospect

 

[Darkie]

Rowsus, do you have a view on this deliberate out of bounds rule? It seems to be working.

Perhaps this reduces the number of ruck contests, particularly for teams who use the boundary a lot? If so, it would seem to be a potential negative for all rucks, but perhaps especially rucks from those teams.

 

[footballer]

hey Row, what do you think De Goey needs to average for him to be a good pick?

 

[t.thomas6]

Keep up the great work Rowsus

What are your thoughts on Sheridan from Freo as a DEF option?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Keep up the great work Rowsus

What are your thoughts on Sheridan from Freo as a DEF option?

I was about to ask the same question.
I'm also interested to know if Rowsus thinks he could average up towards 90 or is he closer to the 80 mark?

 

[jarrad_]

hey rowsus

i was thinking about getting matt crouch in what is your opinion of him?

i know its usually only gnr in the midfield but surely we can make an exception to the rule in crouch circumstance this season?

 

[KLo30]

Without stealing any of Rowsus' thunder, a bit of a start on Sheridan's analysis.

Outside of his Round 21 SC 35 (TOG 53%), Sheridan averaged around 92 across 6 of his last 7 games, and looked good doing it! Duffield is gone now, and he could fill that role. My biggest concern with Sheridan is the Lyon factor. One week he will be killing it, and scoring 120, the next week Ross will be laughing at us, as he switches him to a more defensive role, and he coughs up a 60! The Freo Defs seem to rotate through roles in different games, so it can be hard to choose one with confidence.

Tom Sheridan averaged 81.1 from round 17 -23 (108, 85, 79, 98, 35, 100, 84) or 85.4 (101, 79) if you include his two finals. Removing his 35 in round 22 against North Melbourne when he only played 53 TOG% he average 87.7 or 91.2 respectively. Interestingly, his DT:SC ratio was 0.95, Dis 100%TOG was 25.1 and SC 100%TOG was 102.4 during this period off a 1.95 : 1 K:HB ratio and 3.2 contested possession count.

He still has room for TOG improvement and natural improvement should see his SC average rise, though removing his North game his late run was undertaken at TOG% of 85.7 or 81 including that game, so he will need that natural improvement and ball delivering role, especially maintaining his K:HB ratio, to be a defensive keeper.

FWIW - Sheridan is a much better player than Duffield IMO, who had multiple years as a fringe premium DEF. High draft pick (for us) that has been given / taken time to develop. Apparently big focus for Freo on run and carry out of the backline this year, with Hill spending stints back there as well. Sheridan has now grown the confidence where he demands the easy gives, then he run and carries.

I wouldn't expect NAB 1 & 2 to be the norm, though his contested possession numbers are encouraging.

 

[Bomber18]

Keep up the great work Rowsus

What are your thoughts on Sheridan from Freo as a DEF option?

You could have a look at what Rowsus posted earlier on Sheridan.
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Rowsus/page263?p=230896&viewfull=1#post230896

It's full credit to Rowsus who had the likes of Lonergan and Sheridan already on his radar before they went nuts in the NAB.

 

[NakinakiFC]

Hi Rowsus. Read an interesting article today re: Swans ending their ANZ stadium deal effective immediately, with all home games in 2016 now being played at SCG.
Would be interesting to know whether Sydney perform better at ANZ or SCG from a purely SC perspective? Obviously win/loss records at each venue will affect the results, but still interesting nonetheless to see if the team (or any specific players) perform better at one ground to the other.

 

[jaca]

If nothing else it means that they'll play in front of a full crowd most weeks. Such a good decision.

 

[Darkie]

Hi Rowsus. Read an interesting article today re: Swans ending their ANZ stadium deal effective immediately, with all home games in 2016 now being played at SCG.
Would be interesting to know whether Sydney perform better at ANZ or SCG from a purely SC perspective? Obviously win/loss records at each venue will affect the results, but still interesting nonetheless to see if the team (or any specific players) perform better at one ground to the other.

That's outstanding news for those of us in Sydney (well, those near the SCG, I guess ... ).

Pity my Pies play up here in round one ... when I will be in Melbourne for Easter

 

[Rowsus]

What do we make of Jake Stringer???

Is he a chance to improve his output again this year and become a bonafide 500k+ premo?
Potentially a few occasional bursts in the midfield and that x factor up forward that will increase his scoring average.

Or is he a potential trap with doggies harder draw?

As a rule a I try and avoid key position forwards but he is an interesting prospect

Is he a KPF?
Yes, he is, he is the same height as Pavlich.
No, he's not, he is the same height as Mundy.
Both statements could be considered true (all 3 of them are 192cm).
I think it's fair to say he doesn't actually play as a KPF, but is more mobile, and better below his kness, than what most people consider a true KPF. He will in general gather more possessions than a true KPF, but will probably have less Contested Mark-Kick-Goal type situations than say a Hawkins. I'm not sure I would be relying on those Midfield bursts to keep his score up on a regular basis either. Roughie has been able to do it with some success in the past few seasons (He's much taller, at 193cm!), and is probably the role model for that type of player. I'm not confident that Stringer can be become a $500k+ premo, on a season long basis, but I think he will at least look like one at stages during the season. He will certainly get his fair share of attention from the opposition, particularly when playing near the goal square.

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, do you have a view on this deliberate out of bounds rule? It seems to be working.

Perhaps this reduces the number of ruck contests, particularly for teams who use the boundary a lot? If so, it would seem to be a potential negative for all rucks, but perhaps especially rucks from those teams.

Darkie,
reading between the lines, the AFL have been concerned that the number of boundary throw ins has been rising in the past few seasons. I don't have the figures to quote you, but I remember a commentator referring to them in one of the NABs, and they have nearly doubled in the past few seasons. One of the concerns expressed, was it was making the quarters run longer and longer. This might be one of the reasons there has been marked increase in the number of hitouts, particularly last season.
I think your reasoning is sound, that it will impact all Rucks. My memory is hazy, but if I recall correctly, the commentator was saying there was an average of around 75 boundary throw ins per game in 2015, and this had gradually increased from something in the 40's only 4 or 5 years ago. I will admit, I am prepared to say I may have that wrong, and if anyone has figures one way or the other, it would be good to see them! Let's assume it drops by 15-20/game. For the better Rucks that can equate to a drop in H2A's of about 2 to 3/game. That's a pretty big point hit for them to take!

 

[Rowsus]

hey Row, what do you think De Goey needs to average for him to be a good pick?

hey footballer, given he is priced at $318,400, he is too expensive to be a great Stepping Stone type. You probably still want a minimum of $140k growth from a Stepping Stone, as they are in effect taking the spot of one of your money making Cows. To do that de Goey needs to average mid to low 90's, which nearly makes him your F6 Keeper anyway. So my answer is, he needs to average what you'd be happy to keep as your F6 Keeper, to be considered a good pick. Something around 93 to 94, I would think.

 

[Rowsus]

Keep up the great work Rowsus

What are your thoughts on Sheridan from Freo as a DEF option?

I was about to ask the same question.
I'm also interested to know if Rowsus thinks he could average up towards 90 or is he closer to the 80 mark?

I think he can average up around the 90 mark, though he might possibly fall just short.

Without stealing any of Rowsus' thunder, a bit of a start on Sheridan's analysis.

Tom Sheridan averaged 81.1 from round 17 -23 (108, 85, 79, 98, 35, 100, 84) or 85.4 (101, 79) if you include his two finals. Removing his 35 in round 22 against North Melbourne when he only played 53 TOG% he average 87.7 or 91.2 respectively. Interestingly, his DT:SC ratio was 0.95, Dis 100%TOG was 25.1 and SC 100%TOG was 102.4 during this period off a 1.95 : 1 K:HB ratio and 3.2 contested possession count.

He still has room for TOG improvement and natural improvement should see his SC average rise, though removing his North game his late run was undertaken at TOG% of 85.7 or 81 including that game, so he will need that natural improvement and ball delivering role, especially maintaining his K:HB ratio, to be a defensive keeper.




I wouldn't expect NAB 1 & 2 to be the norm, though his contested possession numbers are encouraging.

No thunder stolen! Great work, and thanks for the helping hand KLo30!

You could have a look at what Rowsus posted earlier on Sheridan.
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...Rowsus/page263?p=230896&viewfull=1#post230896

It's full credit to Rowsus who had the likes of Lonergan and Sheridan already on his radar before they went nuts in the NAB.

Thanks B18. I did spot them early on, and then you get stuck between a rock and a hard place. You want them to have a good NAB series to confirm your thoughts, but you don't want them to burn so bright that everyone jumps on.

 

[Rowsus]

hey rowsus

i was thinking about getting matt crouch in what is your opinion of him?

i know its usually only gnr in the midfield but surely we can make an exception to the rule in crouch circumstance this season?

hey jarrad_,
he's definitely a great accumulator of the ball, but he's one of those guys that can rack up big disposal numbers that sometimes fail to translate into good SC scores. Just as a couple of examples:
Rnd 7 2015, 27 disposals for 71 points
Rnd 20 2015, 26 disposals for 55 points
I'd want a more positive lead, before I took him.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. Read an interesting article today re: Swans ending their ANZ stadium deal effective immediately, with all home games in 2016 now being played at SCG.
Would be interesting to know whether Sydney perform better at ANZ or SCG from a purely SC perspective? Obviously win/loss records at each venue will affect the results, but still interesting nonetheless to see if the team (or any specific players) perform better at one ground to the other.

They are actually two of the smallest grounds in the AFL, with the SCG being only slightly larger than ANZ. In the last 3 seasons the Swans only have a 50% win record at ANZ, so you would think it would be a little bit of a help to them to keep their games to the SCG.
As to specific players, just looking at a very small sample pool of last seasons figures, it could help Hannebery and Tippett, but hinder JPK.

If nothing else it means that they'll play in front of a full crowd most weeks. Such a good decision.

That's outstanding news for those of us in Sydney (well, those near the SCG, I guess ... ).

Pity my Pies play up here in round one ... when I will be in Melbourne for Easter

Having watched games live at both, I can say I definitely prefer the SCG!

 

[thommus]

Rowsus,

Any thoughts on how Sloane will go without Dangerfield (and potentially with B Crouch)?

Read your brilliant analysis in your tables thread but couldn't find anything specific to Sloane's projections in his changed midfield.

Cheers mate