Hey Rowsus,
Just wondering if u think Shaw is overpriced.
I currently have him in my side as he was the only def that averaged over 100 last year (I think).
I am looking to take risks in my back line to improve other areas but I always seem to struggle defensively every year.
Also do u know much about Zac Williams? I never saw his Nab cup matches but he finished last season well and like Sheridan could be an improver
Here is what Rowsus said about Shaw in his Tables and Analysis thread.
http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2766-Rowsus-Tables-And-Analysis-Of-2015-Season/page4
I'm not sure what the opposite of a Flat Track Bully is, but whatever it is, that was Shaw in 2015! He averaged 21.7/game higher in losing games, and he averaged 132 in the 6 games GWS lost by 27 points or more!!! He finally played 22 games in a season in 2015, but I wouldn't be pencilling him in for the same again in 2016. In 2015 Shaw had the 10th highest average of all players, and the 6th highest aggregate! That's rather remarkable, but it also nearly makes him untouchable for starting teams in 2016. Who wants to start with a $600k Def?! Thinking that you will start with him, and build your Def-line up around him is fraught with danger, just ask anybody who tried to do that with Malceski last season!
Great post and yet his ownership is at 31%. He's also 30+ now, I can only imagine that his games played and average will decrease in 2016.
The main mistake people are making is assuming Shaw will clearly be the #1 Def anyway.
Hey Rowsus,
Just wondering if u think Shaw is overpriced.
I currently have him in my side as he was the only def that averaged over 100 last year (I think).
I am looking to take risks in my back line to improve other areas but I always seem to struggle defensively every year.
Also do u know much about Zac Williams? I never saw his Nab cup matches but he finished last season well and like Sheridan could be an improver
Here is what Rowsus said about Shaw in his Tables and Analysis thread.
http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/2766-Rowsus-Tables-And-Analysis-Of-2015-Season/page4
I'm not sure what the opposite of a Flat Track Bully is, but whatever it is, that was Shaw in 2015! He averaged 21.7/game higher in losing games, and he averaged 132 in the 6 games GWS lost by 27 points or more!!! He finally played 22 games in a season in 2015, but I wouldn't be pencilling him in for the same again in 2016. In 2015 Shaw had the 10th highest average of all players, and the 6th highest aggregate! That's rather remarkable, but it also nearly makes him untouchable for starting teams in 2016. Who wants to start with a $600k Def?! Thinking that you will start with him, and build your Def-line up around him is fraught with danger, just ask anybody who tried to do that with Malceski last season!
Great post and yet his ownership is at 31%. He's also 30+ now, I can only imagine that his games played and average will decrease in 2016.
The main mistake people are making is assuming Shaw will clearly be the #1 Def anyway.
Zac played very well in the NAB cup, his points per 100 minutes was 108.
Nathan Wilson also played well, though didn't score as highly (89), and played NAB 3 whilst Williams didn't, and they quite likely competing for the same spot.
If Williams is named round 1 I am jumping straight on (from Lonergan who is currently filling a MP spot down back), but there is a very real chance he may not be named round 1
Yes, I do believe he is over-priced. I think one of the biggest hurdles people fail to negotiate in SC is, understanding what happened last season, may not happen again this season. That applies double for performances that could be considered outside of the norm. Shaw's performance can't be considered anything but outside the norm, both for him as an individual, and also as a Def. I am continually amazed when people write on here, things along the lines of, we can count on player XYZ to be 110 this season, just because they breached that barrier for the first time last season. Our memories and opinions are funny things, and we are deeply swayed by the most recent event, rather than the majority of events. I tend to want to see at least 2 seasons at a level, before saying that is what a reasonable expectation may be for that player.
Some will say, that as long as Heater is roughly 8 to 10 in front of the 2nd or 3rd, it is ok to pay the premium on his price, but I'm not sure I follow along with that one. Firstly, he is far from being guaranteed to be the best performed Def in 2016. Remember the lesson of B Smith last season. coming of his 94 average in 2014, many were predicting he would play an on-ball role in 2015, and be the top Def in 2015. He starts the season 144 and 117, and some people here were already handing him the best SC Def trophy for the season. He then proceeded to average 71 for his remaining 17 games. Yes, there were reasons and excuses, but that's part of the point. We haven't played a game yet, and some Coaches are handing Heater that same trophy! If he fails to earn it, they will once again point out the "reasons and excuses"!
Let's put up a pretend situation. Coach A has Shaw at D1, but no Laird. Coach B has Laird at D1 and no Shaw. As the season Wears on, let's also just pretend Heater is looking like a 108 player, and Laird an even 100 player, and they look like the best to Defs for the season. Let's also pretend they both bring in the Def they didn't have in round 11. By then Coach A has an 80 point advantage on his D1 over Coach B, and Coach B has 10 weeks of whatever upgrade he made with the $100k difference. Conservatively, that should be 120 points, though some will say as high as 200 points. When they make their trades to bring in the missing Def, Coach A needs around $500k to get Laird, and Coach B needs around $540k to get Shaw. Now Coach A has a $40k advantage over Coach B, on their upgrade. That should equate to around 5 to 8 points per week. So we have an equation:
Coach A 80 points from D1 advatage + 12 x 5 to 8 points/week = 140 to 176 points advantage
Coach B has somewhere between 120 and 200 points advantage from the $100k saved.
So we can see, it is a real line ball call. The only way Coach A can gain a decided advantage on Coach B, is if Shaw goes nuts early, causing his price to stay up around the $600k mark, and making coach B stretch to get him, compromising his next upgrade (in comparison to Coach A), or to continue to leak points. Or, Coach B's D1 selection fails to get within 8 to 10 points/round of Shaw. I'd rather not back the side of the equation, that requires the player to be the higher scorer, particularly if there's only years history to back it up.
I challenge the people blindly putting Shaw, Goldstein or Deledio in their teams. Come up with a price, where you'd draw the line. You know you wouldn't pay $1,000,000 for any of the 3, so why do you blindly just say "Oh, they will be the best on their line, so it doesn't matter if I pay too much"? Come up with a reasoned Price, where you'd say, "Nope, I won't pay that much". Yes, Shaw
seems to be a "safe pick" to be at worst top 3 in the Defs, but it would seem the only way you could win SC in 2016, and start with two of those 3, is to nearly nail every player in your team that cost less than $500k. That way you might counter the players that started without them, but nailed their $500k+ players.
Williams could be an improver, but he seems to have come through the NAB's with a question over whether he is even in the best 22. You don't want to be punting on a speclative player, if you are not confident he'll even be there every week. Some are confident, but I'm not so sure myself.
