Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[1337]

Dear Rowsus

Quick one if you may - need an explanation/analysis of how S.Gray (30 plus disposals and he is no seagull) scored under 100 compared to Jack Gunston who reach 126 kicking 3 goals off 17 odd disposals.

Alot have said S.Gray was unfairly scored - I saw both games and agree. I mean Gunston was judged 2nd best on ground for the Hawks and he felt like a non-factor all game (he was a non factor)! CD have a Hawks bias?

 

[Shaahorn]

Hey Rowsus,

Are we all getting an imaginary $1,000 to bet on the Brownlow again this year?

 

[Rowsus]

I haven't hit you up this year Rowsus, but I have one for you. (or anyone else who would like to comment)

My defence:
Boyd, Laird, Sheridan, Lonergan, Weitering, Dea, (Adams, Uber) with Tippa in forwards to swing with Adams and Uber.

I have no BenKen, Libba, Hewett or Papley.
I do have B Ah Chee, B. Crouch and Milera (Will keep Crouch, think his game was ok, took a chance with Ah Chee but he didn't get much of it this week)
I have Danger and McCarthy left this week to play and have a score of 1917 so far.
Is there any merit in swapping Danger with Bartel this week and next week ps off Dea, swing Bartel to Defence, hence freeing up cash for corrections etc and suring up defence with only one rookie playing each week loopholing with Uber.

Or just keep Danger.

Thanks

Personnally id keep danger and trade dea to papley via tippa should free up enough cash to go ahchee to libba find a way to get ben ken following week

Thanks bud.

Just keep Danger.
You don't trade out a yet to play M1/3 to facilitate Rookie upgrades!

Thanks pal.

..... and that's 162 reasons WHY you don't do that!

 

[Rowsus]

I did pretty well this week Row scoring 2359, but I'm in a similar position as you as I don't have either Papley or Weitering. To bring them in I'd drop either the worst performing of Gresham or Dunkley, likely Gresham at this stage, and roll Menadue into the Mids & replace him with Papley.

Weitering would be a straight swap with Dea.

Would it be worth burning 2 trades for potentially 10-20pts per game per player max over the next 7-10 rounds before they're traded out? Obviously, Weitering would be the last defender shipped out as he looks pretty handy.

Nice start, Santoz, well done!
For the most part, trading Rookies isn't about points, but dollars (production) and perceived JS.
If you are happy with the dollar production you have, and you have enough Rookies with JS, then hold your trades. Unless your team is in big trouble, and needs more than 2 corrections, I also suggest to everyone, don't trade this week.
The Rookies you are bringing in might even be sitting on your bench, just to show the points are secondary. Most of us can struggle to raise the funds we need to complete our team without a Rookie correction or two, and there is nothing worse than getting stuck with a low growth, slow burner. We sideways our Rookies to avoid these types, unless we need them for coverage, like we did with Brown at D7/8 last season.

 

[Rowsus]

Dear Rowsus

Quick one if you may - need an explanation/analysis of how S.Gray (30 plus disposals and he is no seagull) scored under 100 compared to Jack Gunston who reach 126 kicking 3 goals off 17 odd disposals.

Alot have said S.Gray was unfairly scored - I saw both games and agree. I mean Gunston was judged 2nd best on ground for the Hawks and he felt like a non-factor all game (he was a non factor)! CD have a Hawks bias?

Dear 1337

Keep in mind the quantity of disposals is only a very rough indication of things, as far a SC scores go, and can be misleading. I can't give you too many specifics, as we are not privy to enough stats to do that. Here is just a few thoughts.
The location on the ground actually affects the score of a kick/handball. Disposals inside the arc are scored a bit higher.
The effectiveness of the disposal, and things like: was it part of a scoring chain, an Ins 50, a Rb 50, long, to a contest, and even the state of the game all affect it's value.
Looking at Grays Heat Map (I don't have Gunstons), we can see 32 of his 38 possessions were between the arcs, and only 6 inside the arcs! He was also lowish on DE% with 67.6%. Gunston was 93.3% DE, with no clangers (Gray had 5), kicked 3 goals, took 7 Marks, and 3 Free For, and none against. One of his goals put Hawthorn in front in the last quarter, which is great for "state of the game" points. All in all, he was very efficient, and impacted the game in important times, and had very few negatives, like bad disposals or clangers. It's not a complete answer, but the best I can do.

Grays Heat Map
View attachment 1110

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

Are we all getting an imaginary $1,000 to bet on the Brownlow again this year?

Hey Shaahorn,
I will be keeping RAMP and Fractions votes, I'm not sure I am doing the full thread, with every game posted this year though.

 

[Juzzo]

Are there any "must have" rookies at this stage Rowsus?

 

[Rowsus]

Are there any "must have" rookies at this stage Rowsus?

Apart from the "knowns", like Kerridge, and to a lesser extent, Kennedy, I would say no. Any of those who posted good scores could quite easily disappear in a week or two, or post a couple of 40's in a row. We need more information yet, before we can declare any of the unknowns!

 

[Juzzo]

Apart from the "knowns", like Kerridge, and to a lesser extent, Kennedy, I would say no. Any of those who posted good scores could quite easily disappear in a week or two, or post a couple of 40's in a row. We need more information yet, before we can declare any of the unknowns!

I don't have Kennedy, I'm still 50/50 on him.
I don't have Libba, my plan was to get him for Ah Chee if he didn't fire which he didn't, but I'd like to give him one more week, he spends plenty of time in the midfield.

 

[GoGeta]

Thoughts on Johannisen from the doggies, any chance of being allowed to roam free or do we simply put it down to a terrible Freo outfit and forget him, considering he was talked about last year and had a good NAB?
cheers Row.

 

[aps1]

Dear Rowsus

Quick one if you may - need an explanation/analysis of how S.Gray (30 plus disposals and he is no seagull) scored under 100 compared to Jack Gunston who reach 126 kicking 3 goals off 17 odd disposals.

Alot have said S.Gray was unfairly scored - I saw both games and agree. I mean Gunston was judged 2nd best on ground for the Hawks and he felt like a non-factor all game (he was a non factor)! CD have a Hawks bias?

Dear 1337

Keep in mind the quantity of disposals is only a very rough indication of things, as far a SC scores go, and can be misleading. I can't give you too many specifics, as we are not privy to enough stats to do that. Here is just a few thoughts.
The location on the ground actually affects the score of a kick/handball. Disposals inside the arc are scored a bit higher.
The effectiveness of the disposal, and things like: was it part of a scoring chain, an Ins 50, a Rb 50, long, to a contest, and even the state of the game all affect it's value.
Looking at Grays Heat Map (I don't have Gunstons), we can see 32 of his 38 possessions were between the arcs, and only 6 inside the arcs! He was also lowish on DE% with 67.6%. Gunston was 93.3% DE, with no clangers (Gray had 5), kicked 3 goals, took 7 Marks, and 3 Free For, and none against. One of his goals put Hawthorn in front in the last quarter, which is great for "state of the game" points. All in all, he was very efficient, and impacted the game in important times, and had very few negatives, like bad disposals or clangers. It's not a complete answer, but the best I can do.

Grays Heat Map
View attachment 1110

The other thing to keep in mind is that SC scoring is a measure of a players performance in a game relative to the performance of other players in the same game (the 3300 rule). You can't compare individual performances from one game to another. As a basic (and extreme) example a 40 disposal game where there were 400 total disposals would be scored more than a 40 disposal game where there were 800 total disposals, assuming all other factors were the same.

As for S. Gray, for me if comparing to say R. Gray/Wingard's performance in the same game, then he may be a little underscored, but is certainly within the ball park when looking at the impact the individual players had on the game. Again, this is also just comparing 3 players out of 44.

 

[1337]

The other thing to keep in mind is that SC scoring is a measure of a players performance in a game relative to the performance of other players in the same game (the 3300 rule). You can't compare individual performances from one game to another. As a basic (and extreme) example a 40 disposal game where there were 400 total disposals would be scored more than a 40 disposal game where there were 800 total disposals, assuming all other factors were the same.

As for S. Gray, for me if comparing to say R. Gray/Wingard's performance in the same game, then he may be a little underscored, but is certainly within the ball park when looking at the impact the individual players had on the game. Again, this is also just comparing 3 players out of 44.

Thanks boys for this - much appreciated. I did not know the scoring of disposals was also dictated by where on the ground they occurred so learnt something new! IMO S.Gray was tied for 2nd BOG - miles behind his brother Robbie but on par with Wingard & Ebett as a key extractor of the ball and not the seagull! No doubt his disposal efficiency reflects the pressure he is under when disposing of the pill.

 

[Crog100]

Hey Shaahorn,
I will be keeping RAMP and Fractions votes, I'm not sure I am doing the full thread, with every game posted this year though.

Shame, was my favourite thread to read over the past few years!

 

[Blue Dragons]

Hey Row,

I had a plan going in to the year with my premo mids. I thought the big 5 of Fyfe, Gaz, Danger, Pendles and Rocky were the ones that could make or break the year. I had my doubts about all of them though. Fyfe, Gaz and Rocky with injuries, Pendles being played less in the middle and Danger at a new club and yet to play with Selwood.

So I picked them all plus Viney who I really wanted and the plan was that I would set aside one trade for one of those 5 for if / when things didnt go well. I didnt really want to run a 6 deep premo midfield but I thought itd be easier having them all in to start and offloading one than to choose between them and get them wrong, plus it would allow me to have a look at who has started well in the other lines.

Fyfe definitely didnt look right to me and Rocky had his arm iced too. Pendles wasnt the usual Pendles but I still think he will come good. So considering this was my plan from the start..if say Fyfe has another off game this week and / or doesnt look 100%, is trading him and Uber for say Hall / JJ worth it? At this stage im happy with all my rookies - I just need Kennedy..maybe Weitering. I use that one trade and lose Fyfe and a donut for two potential keepers and strengthen my forwards and backs which is needed.

Thanks mate!

 

[Eagling]

Hey Row,

I had a plan going in to the year with my premo mids. I thought the big 5 of Fyfe, Gaz, Danger, Pendles and Rocky were the ones that could make or break the year. I had my doubts about all of them though. Fyfe, Gaz and Rocky with injuries, Pendles being played less in the middle and Danger at a new club and yet to play with Selwood.

So I picked them all plus Viney who I really wanted and the plan was that I would set aside one trade for one of those 5 for if / when things didnt go well. I didnt really want to run a 6 deep premo midfield but I thought itd be easier having them all in to start and offloading one than to choose between them and get them wrong, plus it would allow me to have a look at who has started well in the other lines.

Fyfe definitely didnt look right to me and Rocky had his arm iced too. Pendles wasnt the usual Pendles but I still think he will come good. So considering this was my plan from the start..if say Fyfe has another off game this week and / or doesnt look 100%, is trading him and Uber for say Hall / JJ worth it? At this stage im happy with all my rookies - I just need Kennedy..maybe Weitering. I use that one trade and lose Fyfe and a donut for two potential keepers and strengthen my forwards and backs which is needed.

Thanks mate!

Disclaimer: I'm not the great man.

NO. Seriously, this is line of thinking is insanity. You decided on your structure, you decided on your players, and now, after a couple of games, you want to change your team? If you wanted to make this move; you should have done it before lockout on Thursday. RULE 1: DO NOT TRADE PREMIUMS. Fyfe is a premium; and one of the best at that. If you thought he wasn't right, you wouldn't have picked him, and one or two games is not enough to get a read on a player's long term potential.

Look, your trade may work out, and Fyfe might break his leg 5 minutes into round 3 and you'll look like a genius; but the methodology is flawed.

 

[Blue Dragons]

Disclaimer: I'm not the great man.

NO. Seriously, this is line of thinking is insanity. You decided on your structure, you decided on your players, and now, after a couple of games, you want to change your team? If you wanted to make this move; you should have done it before lockout on Thursday. RULE 1: DO NOT TRADE PREMIUMS. Fyfe is a premium; and one of the best at that. If you thought he wasn't right, you wouldn't have picked him, and one or two games is not enough to get a read on a player's long term potential.

Look, your trade may work out, and Fyfe might break his leg 5 minutes into round 3 and you'll look like a genius; but the methodology is flawed.

No thats not exactly true. My structure was that I wanted a 5 premo midfield, however, I had my doubts over the 5 mentioned players so the plan was to pick the 5 plus Viney and then offload one. As mentioned it also gave me a chance to see how others on the other lines performed before selecting them. This isnt a knee jerk reaction to one bad Fyfe game.

I could have just picked the 4 plus Viney from the start but this way I get a couple of weeks to have a look at them and its only one trade used.

Thanks for the reply

 

[Eagling]

No thats not exactly true. My structure was that I wanted a 5 premo midfield, however, I had my doubts over the 5 mentioned players so the plan was to pick the 5 plus Viney and then offload one. As mentioned it also gave me a chance to see how others on the other lines performed before selecting them. This isnt a knee jerk reaction to one bad Fyfe game.

I could have just picked the 4 plus Viney from the start but this way I get a couple of weeks to have a look at them and its only one trade used.

Thanks for the reply

That is a misuse of trades and funds. The only time it would be remotely acceptable is if you were trading in the other direction; two midpricers to a rookie and premium. Believe me, as a general rule, you'll regret a trade like this. You don't spend 600k+ on player for two weeks only to trade him out without a LTI.

 

[Blue Dragons]

That is a misuse of trades and funds. The only time it would be remotely acceptable is if you were trading in the other direction; two midpricers to a rookie and premium. Believe me, as a general rule, you'll regret a trade like this. You don't spend 600k+ on player for two weeks only to trade him out without a LTI.

I looked at it as a couple of rounds of insurance. If I hadve picked 4 of the 5 mids I wouldve left Danger out which I would be regretting and with the extra money for the forward and back I would have got Yeo and Greene. Odds are I would end up trading one of them out eventually anyway.

The other thing to note is it would be one premium mid (whether thats Fyfe or not i dont know..he just didnt look right to me) and a donut (Uebergang) for two potential keepers..one forward and one defender. Obviously neither would average more than Fyfe but the two combined would average more than Fyfe and Ueber.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Row,

I had a plan going in to the year with my premo mids. I thought the big 5 of Fyfe, Gaz, Danger, Pendles and Rocky were the ones that could make or break the year. I had my doubts about all of them though. Fyfe, Gaz and Rocky with injuries, Pendles being played less in the middle and Danger at a new club and yet to play with Selwood.

So I picked them all plus Viney who I really wanted and the plan was that I would set aside one trade for one of those 5 for if / when things didnt go well. I didnt really want to run a 6 deep premo midfield but I thought itd be easier having them all in to start and offloading one than to choose between them and get them wrong, plus it would allow me to have a look at who has started well in the other lines.

Fyfe definitely didnt look right to me and Rocky had his arm iced too. Pendles wasnt the usual Pendles but I still think he will come good. So considering this was my plan from the start..if say Fyfe has another off game this week and / or doesnt look 100%, is trading him and Uber for say Hall / JJ worth it? At this stage im happy with all my rookies - I just need Kennedy..maybe Weitering. I use that one trade and lose Fyfe and a donut for two potential keepers and strengthen my forwards and backs which is needed.

Thanks mate!

I'm not Rowsus, but I'd say go for it if you feel you've made a mistake with your structure and you feel those trades will fix it in the long run. It's interesting that you deliberately started with the plan to offload one of the Big 5 having said that.
Strengthening your backs could really help you out if especially the Brown/Tippa/Adams types picks prove to be not viable as onfield options (ie: 40 averages). Something I'm considering too. Do you need to get Hall though? Have you missed out on Libba? Potentially a Libba + JJ combo sounds better for me personally but go for what you feel is right.

 

[Blue Dragons]

I'm not Rowsus, but I'd say go for it if you feel you've made a mistake with your structure and you feel those trades will fix it in the long run. It's interesting that you deliberately started with the plan to offload one of the Big 5 having said that.
Strengthening your backs could really help you out if especially the Brown/Tippa/Adams types picks prove to be not viable as onfield options (ie: 40 averages). Something I'm considering too. Do you need to get Hall though? Have you missed out on Libba? Potentially a Libba + JJ combo sounds better for me personally but go for what you feel is right.

Its definitely a different way that I decided to go about it this year but last year I got burnt by so many of my premo mids being injured that I thought this option might help me out.

I also wasnt sold on which extra player to pick up forward and back and didnt want to be locked in.

Youre right about the rookies down back. I didnt even have Brown but had to bring him in when Hartley wasnt picked plus I still have Ueber.

I dont have Libba but only because I already packed my mids and have Mills and Oliver there and even if I trade Fyfe I think I still have enough mid depth but my def / fwds need it more.