Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
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Mills never loses that $100k, and you get to "realise" it when you trade him out. You can't add that into dollars you are better off. It's just dollars that are located somewhere else. Even if you could count that $100k, which you really can't, where is the other $150k?!
Isn't that the sort of accounting that got Exon in trouble?
Isn't that the sort of accounting that got Exon in trouble?
A lot depends on individual circumstances. For example, I am going to go Karpany to Papley. Karpany is a $123k M/F F/D I have, in conjunction with Ueber. WC play early the next 2 weeks, so Karpany serves little purpose those weeks. By the time WC play late again, I will probably have some natural donuts I can use anyway. I also think it is reasonable to use Rookies like Gresham, if you feel you don't have enough of the top 10 or 12 early Cash cows. If you have enough of the other top 10 or 12, I would forego Papley, rather than sideways from another Rookie.
I'm not sure what method you are using, but it seems a bit flawed. In an easy way to calculate where they are heading, use 4700 x ave as a ball park. The longer you hold them, the closer you can move that to 5000 x ave.
If Mills ave 70 from here, he is heading to $329,000 and if you hold him longer, to $350,000 - profit $120k-$140k
If Papley ave 60 from here, he is heading to $282,000, and if you hold him longer, to $300,000 - profit $172k-$190k
So no matter which way you look at it, Papley is looking to make around $50k more than Mills on those numbers. I would keep a trade, before I took a $50k injection of cash.
If the Loose Change makes the difference in getting to a solid Keeper, then that could be a worthwhile option, but I think you might have micalculated the difference in values. Can you explain how you arrived at potentially $250k better off?
I'm not sure what method you are using, but it seems a bit flawed. In an easy way to calculate where they are heading, use 4700 x ave as a ball park. The longer you hold them, the closer you can move that to 5000 x ave.
If Mills ave 70 from here, he is heading to $329,000 and if you hold him longer, to $350,000 - profit $120k-$140k
If Papley ave 60 from here, he is heading to $282,000, and if you hold him longer, to $300,000 - profit $172k-$190k
So no matter which way you look at it, Papley is looking to make around $50k more than Mills on those numbers. I would keep a trade, before I took a $50k injection of cash.
If the Loose Change makes the difference in getting to a solid Keeper, then that could be a worthwhile option, but I think you might have micalculated the difference in values. Can you explain how you arrived at potentially $250k better off?
This discussion has really got me thinking. This is my take on it.
Using Rowsus's figures for Papley and Mills:
1. If there is only one trade from Mills to Papley then the cash creation is $50K, i.e. your capital increases by $50K in the future (the figure given as your team's worth in SC).
2. $100K of your existing capital is freed up for re-allocation. You have not made any additional cash here but by freeing up the $100K the opportunity is there to use it wisely to increase your scoring or future cash creation. However as there is only one trade it is not being used for any purpose - it is not creating new cash and it is not creating additional points. In fact, the scoring has decrease by 20 ppg which is the difference between Mills and Papley.
3. So with one trade from Mills to Papley we have an additional $50K coming in the future, decreased the scoring by 20 ppg and have $100K of existing capital available for re-allocation but not currently being used.
So clearly the full potential of the above trade will only be realised with an additional trade to make productive use of the $100K of existing and unused capital. Aenimist was thinking of upgrading Barlow to a premium. Barlow is worth $505,300 and his current average scoring is 60.5 but lets be generous and say he averages 80 ppg from here on. Let's say Barlow is upgraded to R Gray at $595,900 with an average of 129 ppg. With the second trade all the unused capital is allocated productively and the overall increase in scoring is:
Mills to Papley: - 20
Barlow to Gray: + 49
Total: + 29 ppg
So, for two trades you get an increase in capital of $50K and an increase in scoring of 29ppg. This example suggests the real value of the initial trade is allowing Barlow to be upgraded to Gray. Of course the analysis depends on your estimation of future scoring of all the players and this is only one possibility. Personally I suspect Barlow's scoring will increase and Gray will decrease a bit.
btw, from memory Exxon got into trouble not from poor accounting but by a drunk captain who ran his oil tanker aground. An American company, Enron, thought good accounting practices did not apply to them.
I like your take on the analysis Cattleherder. I don't agree with all the figures used (I think Barlow might do better than 80 from here, so the 80 mightn't have been that generous! ), but I like the angle you have put on it. Thanks.
You are absolutely correct, it was Enron I was thinking of, not Exxon!
), but I like the angle you have put on it. Thanks. You are absolutely correct, it was Enron I was thinking of, not Exxon!
Hi Rowsus
Apologies if you have answered this and I can't locate it....
Is there a 'perceived' Barlow precedence?
By that I mean, the perception that at age 28 he is no longer a great AFL midfielder capable of averaging 95-115 SC points.... and either mentally, physically or skill-wise just no longer 'has it'.
Has someone been a consistent 100+ mid and in their prime simply become a poor player?
Of course he might average 100 from here on in and hadn't lost anything - just got Lyoned. Still I wonder if it's happened before recently.
Apologies if you have answered this and I can't locate it....
Is there a 'perceived' Barlow precedence?
By that I mean, the perception that at age 28 he is no longer a great AFL midfielder capable of averaging 95-115 SC points.... and either mentally, physically or skill-wise just no longer 'has it'.
Has someone been a consistent 100+ mid and in their prime simply become a poor player?
Of course he might average 100 from here on in and hadn't lost anything - just got Lyoned. Still I wonder if it's happened before recently.
Dal Santo was only 27 when he scored his 119, then dropped.
Judd was only 28 when he scored his 116, then dropped.
J Brown went: 114, 141, 111, turned 28 then went 100, 99, 98, 73, 78
Bartel went: 126, 116, 109, then turned 27 and went 102, 101, 99, 106, 102, 87
C Cornes went: 120, 102, 118, turned 29 and went 90, 87, 78, 70, 84
Buddy went: 108, 111, 116, turned 26 then went 90, 100, 87
Griffen went 108, 106, 116, turned 28 then went 98, 91
That's about as close as I can get for you.
Judd was only 28 when he scored his 116, then dropped.
J Brown went: 114, 141, 111, turned 28 then went 100, 99, 98, 73, 78
Bartel went: 126, 116, 109, then turned 27 and went 102, 101, 99, 106, 102, 87
C Cornes went: 120, 102, 118, turned 29 and went 90, 87, 78, 70, 84
Buddy went: 108, 111, 116, turned 26 then went 90, 100, 87
Griffen went 108, 106, 116, turned 28 then went 98, 91
That's about as close as I can get for you.
Interesting ... so it looks like the worst result the year after the big drop looks to be a further decline of 7 (Griffen).
If Barlow dropped a further 7 from last year, he'd average 87 for the year.
With two scores below that already, that would suggest he'd average around 89 from here (higher if he doesn't play every game).
It's worth noting that Griffen's drop was the worst outcome, and that he has had back problems, if I recall correctly.
If Barlow dropped a further 7 from last year, he'd average 87 for the year.
With two scores below that already, that would suggest he'd average around 89 from here (higher if he doesn't play every game).
It's worth noting that Griffen's drop was the worst outcome, and that he has had back problems, if I recall correctly.
Hey Rowsus
Just wondering what you think of McGovern now?
I have McGovern, Lonergan and Z.Smith to think about with some cash in bank.
Is McGovern playing more shutdown roles?? Really thought he would go ok this year but he is losing cash for us fast.
Do I persevere with him or turn him into a Docherty or Simpson this week or wait for Heater next week and see if he can bounce back.
He might see a bit of the ball this week against North.
Lonergan I think I will hold for another week at least. He has been playing ok without starring.
I have Weitering and Adams both helping my scores down back atm.
Lastly Zac Smith. I can with one trade (just) turn him into Goldy this week. If of course I don't touch backline.
But that would mean I use all my cash. I would then have to wait for rookies to hopefully make more cash for me.
Any thoughts?
Just wondering what you think of McGovern now?
I have McGovern, Lonergan and Z.Smith to think about with some cash in bank.
Is McGovern playing more shutdown roles?? Really thought he would go ok this year but he is losing cash for us fast.
Do I persevere with him or turn him into a Docherty or Simpson this week or wait for Heater next week and see if he can bounce back.
He might see a bit of the ball this week against North.
Lonergan I think I will hold for another week at least. He has been playing ok without starring.
I have Weitering and Adams both helping my scores down back atm.
Lastly Zac Smith. I can with one trade (just) turn him into Goldy this week. If of course I don't touch backline.
But that would mean I use all my cash. I would then have to wait for rookies to hopefully make more cash for me.
Any thoughts?
Hey Rowsus,
I currently have the ruck setup of Martin and Gawn,
Both performing solidly, especially Gawn. I already had the plan of upgrading gawn to goldy around round 6-7, but looks like that plan needs to be executed earlier. However, now im not even sure if it should be Gawn who should be upgraded.
My question is:
Should I bring in Goldstein now?
If so, who for?
Cheers
I currently have the ruck setup of Martin and Gawn,
Both performing solidly, especially Gawn. I already had the plan of upgrading gawn to goldy around round 6-7, but looks like that plan needs to be executed earlier. However, now im not even sure if it should be Gawn who should be upgraded.
My question is:
Should I bring in Goldstein now?
If so, who for?
Cheers
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Hey Mate enjoy reading through some of your questions and the way you look at things for analysis. This is my first question/post on the site. Currently sitting ranked around the 2400 mark and used 2 trades thus far. My current team is
DEF - Houli, Laird, D.Rich, Weitering, Tipungwuti, Adams, m. Brown, M. Hartey
MIDS - Ablett, Danger, Selwood, Fyfe, T.Mitchell, Liberatore, S.Kerridge, C.Mills, R.Davis, C.Menadue, G.Hewitt
RUCKS, - Goldy, Nic Nat, - T.Read
FWDS - A. Hall, Wells, Dusty, Kennedy, Papley, T.Greene, L.McCarthy, W. Millera
The main problem as I see my team thus far is T. Greene sitting in the forward line and although he's seems to be getting his share of midfield time he's scoring has been disappointing. I can see him improving slightly from here but figure hell be inconsistent with the odd hundred mixed in with a range of poor scoors. I only have 30K in bank at moment and am not keen on any of the sub 460K forwards as a swap. Have considered a Greene- Johannisen swap but not really sold on that either or any of the other defenders that I can afford.
What do you think of trading Greene- Parish/Oliver both who I passed up on pre-season because of price . Obviously they have already seen one price rise but id still pocket around 170k. Or do you believe this is actually a backwards move and I should hold Greene until I have the cash to upgrade him to a premium forward when the next chunk of cash comes my way?
DEF - Houli, Laird, D.Rich, Weitering, Tipungwuti, Adams, m. Brown, M. Hartey
MIDS - Ablett, Danger, Selwood, Fyfe, T.Mitchell, Liberatore, S.Kerridge, C.Mills, R.Davis, C.Menadue, G.Hewitt
RUCKS, - Goldy, Nic Nat, - T.Read
FWDS - A. Hall, Wells, Dusty, Kennedy, Papley, T.Greene, L.McCarthy, W. Millera
The main problem as I see my team thus far is T. Greene sitting in the forward line and although he's seems to be getting his share of midfield time he's scoring has been disappointing. I can see him improving slightly from here but figure hell be inconsistent with the odd hundred mixed in with a range of poor scoors. I only have 30K in bank at moment and am not keen on any of the sub 460K forwards as a swap. Have considered a Greene- Johannisen swap but not really sold on that either or any of the other defenders that I can afford.
What do you think of trading Greene- Parish/Oliver both who I passed up on pre-season because of price . Obviously they have already seen one price rise but id still pocket around 170k. Or do you believe this is actually a backwards move and I should hold Greene until I have the cash to upgrade him to a premium forward when the next chunk of cash comes my way?
In the same boat and very interested to hear Rowsus's thoughts. For what it's worth I'm leaning towards the comforting 'do nothing' approach. I picked Martin as the best bet (after Goldstein) to average 110+, and Gawn as the best value option to improve and stick within 15 points of Goldy's average, which I figured was the benchmark to be about even with Goldy owners given the price difference. (I know the money for points is a much bigger difference but that's the number I came up when mulling my last couple of selections). Obviously I hoped a hard opening draw for Goldy might coincide with a few big scores for Gawn and the stars would align to sideways easily before his RD6 game against WBD. Goldy's RD3 score is a bit of a disaster scenario but don't think enough has changed for me to abandon my thinking just yet.
Pretty happy with how that trade turned out in Rd 3, Blicavs had another good game as essentially a midfielder (only 5 hit outs). I think if Geelong keep up their success then Blicavs should keep scoring consistently, as a midfielder he's behind Danger, Selwood and Duncan so he's free to roam around
Hey Rowsus!
My question is, could you compile a table of players who went on runs of 8 rounds where they averaged a lot higher than their seasonal average? (maybe limit it to 2009 onwards) Could you include the year and their age please?
Mainly interested in looking at Mids & Fwds who averaged 125+ for 8 rounds but had seasonal averages under 120. Defenders that went 120+ for 8 rounds are of interest too (ie: maybe Hodge last year).
In past years, my better years came when I identified that player who was about to go on a massive run. ie: O'keefe in 2009, NDS in 2011 (man I loved him), Rocky & Griffen in 2013. It might be of help to identify who could do something similar this season.
Might be a time consuming task, but would appreciate your efforts when you get a chance (presumably when you're back from aus! Hope you enjoy your trip).
My question is, could you compile a table of players who went on runs of 8 rounds where they averaged a lot higher than their seasonal average? (maybe limit it to 2009 onwards) Could you include the year and their age please?
Mainly interested in looking at Mids & Fwds who averaged 125+ for 8 rounds but had seasonal averages under 120. Defenders that went 120+ for 8 rounds are of interest too (ie: maybe Hodge last year).
In past years, my better years came when I identified that player who was about to go on a massive run. ie: O'keefe in 2009, NDS in 2011 (man I loved him), Rocky & Griffen in 2013. It might be of help to identify who could do something similar this season.
Might be a time consuming task, but would appreciate your efforts when you get a chance (presumably when you're back from aus! Hope you enjoy your trip).
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Hi Rowsus,
Looking at my current team my M8 is between Hewett (that 19 will slow his $$) and Davis avg 51 on bench. Ive got Gresh who needs to be traded out, as he wont get back in i think. Ive got Keays who deserves a game as killing it in the 2nds.
Im thinking of spending $110k upgrading Gresh to Parish avg 22d 6.8 tackles, avg 83 as i see him like Cripps in that he is getting plenty mid time and has shown consistency, wont lose mid role. I get 30ppg on Davis as m8 and those stats of Parish are on par with Bartel or even Parkers 2nd year. KK, Birchall, Simpson only avg 22-23d last few years, if they were $260k youd jump at.
However i will need another trade later on. I understand that he wont avg 105+ (i read your Libba analysis)
a) I missed the Parish-train keep the $110k
b) Dont waste the trade wait for Keays, Petracca, Freeman, Trengrove to move Gresh on
c) He is still value at $260k considering his stats, opportunity at ESS
Just hoping for some analysis from you on this cheers
PS - Trying to muster a few of our SC league to catch up for a drink to this weekend with you lads
Looking at my current team my M8 is between Hewett (that 19 will slow his $$) and Davis avg 51 on bench. Ive got Gresh who needs to be traded out, as he wont get back in i think. Ive got Keays who deserves a game as killing it in the 2nds.
Im thinking of spending $110k upgrading Gresh to Parish avg 22d 6.8 tackles, avg 83 as i see him like Cripps in that he is getting plenty mid time and has shown consistency, wont lose mid role. I get 30ppg on Davis as m8 and those stats of Parish are on par with Bartel or even Parkers 2nd year. KK, Birchall, Simpson only avg 22-23d last few years, if they were $260k youd jump at.
However i will need another trade later on. I understand that he wont avg 105+ (i read your Libba analysis)
a) I missed the Parish-train keep the $110k
b) Dont waste the trade wait for Keays, Petracca, Freeman, Trengrove to move Gresh on
c) He is still value at $260k considering his stats, opportunity at ESS
Just hoping for some analysis from you on this cheers
PS - Trying to muster a few of our SC league to catch up for a drink to this weekend with you lads
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