Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus,

With Deledio finally ruled out, I need some advice on my final trade! Your suggestion of Miller last week was a ripper, but I didn't have the guts in the end. Although, getting Motlop instead has given me a very useful $4k to spend this week.

I have $513k to spend on either a Midfielder or a Forward (as Motlop at M8 atm).
Ward at $508k seems the obvious option but I like Gibbs as a bit of a POD with a very easy draw home.
Viney's been in some good form too.

Who would you look at in my situation?

 

[bomberboy]

Hey Row,
I seem to be entering this thread a lot more lately, but my questions are more game theory than specific players.

I'm currently sitting 300 points behind 10th, my (unrealistic) goal, but I figure I have more trades than most above me. With 5 rounds to go, am I better off using a trade this week and trying to catch that ground, or saving my trades for a bang bang bang bang in the last 2 weeks?

This is something I'd like opinions on from the community as well if anyone thinks differently!

 

[Darkie]

Hey Row,
I seem to be entering this thread a lot more lately, but my questions are more game theory than specific players.

I'm currently sitting 300 points behind 10th, my (unrealistic) goal, but I figure I have more trades than most above me. With 5 rounds to go, am I better off using a trade this week and trying to catch that ground, or saving my trades for a bang bang bang bang in the last 2 weeks?

This is something I'd like opinions on from the community as well if anyone thinks differently!

For now, I'd suggest using a trade if you expect it to gain you 150 points until season's end, and otherwise save it. This will depend on any negative PODs you might have (from memory your 22 is top shelf), your cover, who might miss through injury, and how long they will be out

If you're going for overall, you don't want to leave your trades too late, in my view. Even if Danger missed round 23, the most the trade to cover him would be worth (ex ante) might be 120 (whatever you expect his replacement to score - noting that you will have almost all the top mids already, but also that you could pick one with a favorable final game).

Trades used now should be able to add more than 120 points, in most sensible cases (replacing a Barlow type, eg) so they're better used now, so long as they're genuine LTI replacements for premiums, or preventing more than one donut/one donut with a semi-upgrade built in. Don't start sidewaysing, but I wouldn't be trying to "save" trades until round 23 per se - they are there to be used, just try to get the maximum value out of each of them (which usually implies getting a multi-week benefit from them).

PS: I think this is good "all purpose" advice for anyone focused on overall rank, but if you are specifically trying to maximize your chances of catching up 300 points to finish in the top 10, that strengthens the argument for erring earlier rather than later. In an extreme case, you might have a healthy best 22 in the final two rounds, and gain almost no points from four sideways trades! Better to have a small "sidewaysing" benefit for 4-5 weeks than just for 1 or 2, in that example.

 

[bomberboy]

That's ripper advice. I guess looking at my team the only negative pods I have are not having Docherty or Selwood, but I still believe I can draw even.

For reference, here is my first 22:
Simpson, Laird, Rance, McVeigh, Shaw, Bartel
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Steven, Sloane
Gawn, Goldstein
Martin, Montagna, Franklin, Merrett, Zorko, Wells

I'm thinking a possibility is trading Wells to someone, but he is too good when he plays to justify it...

 

[Bomber18]

That's ripper advice. I guess looking at my team the only negative pods I have are not having Docherty or Selwood, but I still believe I can draw even.

For reference, here is my first 22:
Simpson, Laird, Rance, McVeigh, Shaw, Bartel
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Steven, Sloane
Gawn, Goldstein
Martin, Montagna, Franklin, Merrett, Zorko, Wells

I'm thinking a possibility is trading Wells to someone, but he is too good when he plays to justify it...

That team is very solid! I'd just sit on my trades and use them if needed. Sometimes trading does more harm than good.
I don't think you need to do anything too rash to make up 300 points. Who knows, you might only need to make it to 11th

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

With Deledio finally ruled out, I need some advice on my final trade! Your suggestion of Miller last week was a ripper, but I didn't have the guts in the end. Although, getting Motlop instead has given me a very useful $4k to spend this week.

I have $513k to spend on either a Midfielder or a Forward (as Motlop at M8 atm).
Ward at $508k seems the obvious option but I like Gibbs as a bit of a POD with a very easy draw home.
Viney's been in some good form too.

Who would you look at in my situation?

Hey B18,
I will certainly be keeping an eye on the Motlop/Miller match up. Round 1 to Miller, but there's still 5 rounds to go!
It would seem like Gibbs and Ward are the obvious options, and it would seem a Mid might be better than a Forward (Gunston probably won't average 110 from here, even though Haw have a reasonable draw.). Ward is frustrating, and unpredictable.
I said Gibbs seems obvious, mainly due to being the highest priced Mid in your price range, and him scoring 148 last game. The problem I have is, before his 148 he had a mid/early season hot-streak where he averaged 130, and outside of that 6 game hot-streak, he was averaging 87. Which is his real form?
I actually would take Cripps in front of Gibbs. Cripps is a player that should be on the up, where as Gibbs has "stagnated" in 3 of the 4 previous seasons. Blame Malthouse if you will, but good players rise above circumstances. Cripps hit a hollow patch between Rounds 9 and 15, but has been good in his last 3 games. Given he has only played 39 games, his hollow patch is more forgivable than Gibbs'. Cripps has the K:H ratio problem, but he's getting back to his best involvements in the game, averaging 12 clearances in his last 3 games. That's elite. Nobody doubts he's a player on the rise, so why can't he give a taste now?
Cripps is owned by twice as many Coaches as Gibbs (10% to 5%), but within the top 1000 Cripps is 5.5% to Gibbs 1.1%, and top 100 it is 2% all, so they are both equal POD's at the pointy end. Ward is 16% overall, 39% top 1000, and 44% top 100, so they both present a bigger POD than Ward (obviously). I think you are more likely to make more ground, by creating a POD, than closing a negative. Of course, it works the other way too. You are also more likely to lose more ground, too.
If it was me, I'd be taking Cripps, if it is out of Gibbs and Ward, I expect Ward to score more, but Gibbs to give you a greater opportunity to climb the ladder. I think I'd still take Ward in front of Gibbs.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row,
I seem to be entering this thread a lot more lately, but my questions are more game theory than specific players.

I'm currently sitting 300 points behind 10th, my (unrealistic) goal, but I figure I have more trades than most above me. With 5 rounds to go, am I better off using a trade this week and trying to catch that ground, or saving my trades for a bang bang bang bang in the last 2 weeks?

This is something I'd like opinions on from the community as well if anyone thinks differently!

For now, I'd suggest using a trade if you expect it to gain you 150 points until season's end, and otherwise save it. This will depend on any negative PODs you might have (from memory your 22 is top shelf), your cover, who might miss through injury, and how long they will be out

If you're going for overall, you don't want to leave your trades too late, in my view. Even if Danger missed round 23, the most the trade to cover him would be worth (ex ante) might be 120 (whatever you expect his replacement to score - noting that you will have almost all the top mids already, but also that you could pick one with a favorable final game).

Trades used now should be able to add more than 120 points, in most sensible cases (replacing a Barlow type, eg) so they're better used now, so long as they're genuine LTI replacements for premiums, or preventing more than one donut/one donut with a semi-upgrade built in. Don't start sidewaysing, but I wouldn't be trying to "save" trades until round 23 per se - they are there to be used, just try to get the maximum value out of each of them (which usually implies getting a multi-week benefit from them).

PS: I think this is good "all purpose" advice for anyone focused on overall rank, but if you are specifically trying to maximize your chances of catching up 300 points to finish in the top 10, that strengthens the argument for erring earlier rather than later. In an extreme case, you might have a healthy best 22 in the final two rounds, and gain almost no points from four sideways trades! Better to have a small "sidewaysing" benefit for 4-5 weeks than just for 1 or 2, in that example.

That's ripper advice. I guess looking at my team the only negative pods I have are not having Docherty or Selwood, but I still believe I can draw even.

For reference, here is my first 22:
Simpson, Laird, Rance, McVeigh, Shaw, Bartel
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Steven, Sloane
Gawn, Goldstein
Martin, Montagna, Franklin, Merrett, Zorko, Wells

I'm thinking a possibility is trading Wells to someone, but he is too good when he plays to justify it...

That team is very solid! I'd just sit on my trades and use them if needed. Sometimes trading does more harm than good.
I don't think you need to do anything too rash to make up 300 points. Who knows, you might only need to make it to 11th

Hey bb,
there are a lot of variables to be taken into account, the main ones being:
What cash, and cash generating options do you have?
What cover do you have?
As a general answer to your question, I'd say you are better off not trading just for tradings sake, which trading Wells would appear to be. Rather than side trading your lower Prems, I'd be looking to build DPP loopholing options. Being able to look at some of your "flakier" Prems, before locking their scores in, can be invaluable, and sometimes more value than side-trading.

 

[bomberboy]

Hey bb,
there are a lot of variables to be taken into account, the main ones being:
What cash, and cash generating options do you have?
What cover do you have?
As a general answer to your question, I'd say you are better off not trading just for tradings sake, which trading Wells would appear to be. Rather than side trading your lower Prems, I'd be looking to build DPP loopholing options. Being able to look at some of your "flakier" Prems, before locking their scores in, can be invaluable, and sometimes more value than side-trading.

Well my cover on each line is as follows
Collins, Ueber
Joyce, Trengrove, Phillips
Cox
Menadue, Howard

And 47.5k in the bank.

Are there any straight swaps from those I have on the bench currently that might stand out?

 

[kakarot]

Hi Rowsus,

Just off the top of your head, how would you order these M/F players in terms of total points (let's assume PIT0) from here: Wells, Dahlhaus, Greene, Motlop, Miller, S Gray, Watts, C Smith and Lyons.

I think they're the relevant ones I don't have from here (I have Zerrett, Dusty, Montagna, Zorko and Kerridge).

Even though it's not maximising my money, I'll probably trade Barlow to an M/F player so I can cover 2 lines. I'll definitely be doing this if Kerridge misses and I don't get hit with anything else!

 

[Darkie]

That's ripper advice. I guess looking at my team the only negative pods I have are not having Docherty or Selwood, but I still believe I can draw even.

For reference, here is my first 22:
Simpson, Laird, Rance, McVeigh, Shaw, Bartel
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Steven, Sloane
Gawn, Goldstein
Martin, Montagna, Franklin, Merrett, Zorko, Wells

I'm thinking a possibility is trading Wells to someone, but he is too good when he plays to justify it...

I think that's right bomberboy, it looks hard to find a trade that is warranted, in terms of giving you c. 150+ points, with that team (which is a good thing!). Personally Wells wouldn't even be the first forward I'd trade (he's ahead of Montagna and Buddy for mine), but there certainly aren't any huge negative PODs I can see as things stand.

The main risk for you would be injuries to your players, the main opportunity injuries to players you don't own. Row's advice to try to build cover looks sensible to me (not surprisingly ). It looks like you're fractionally short of an amount that would allow you to upgrade cover to a semi-premium (Menadue to Dahl, eg). Dahl, once he bottoms out, would be the type I'd look for (good scorer, cheap, DPP, shouldn't need a rest). If you can use your trades to avoid donuts in the first instance, and progressively build better cover, I'd say that's the best thing you can do at this point. The main example I can think of where you might use your next trade more proactively would be if really good cheap cover was available and on the bubble (let's say a Clay Smith type, although I get that not everyone likes him). The risk there would obviously be that you didn't bring him in, and then he got too expensive, and you couldn't get him later on when you wanted to.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey B18,
I will certainly be keeping an eye on the Motlop/Miller match up. Round 1 to Miller, but there's still 5 rounds to go!
It would seem like Gibbs and Ward are the obvious options, and it would seem a Mid might be better than a Forward (Gunston probably won't average 110 from here, even though Haw have a reasonable draw.). Ward is frustrating, and unpredictable.
I said Gibbs seems obvious, mainly due to being the highest priced Mid in your price range, and him scoring 148 last game. The problem I have is, before his 148 he had a mid/early season hot-streak where he averaged 130, and outside of that 6 game hot-streak, he was averaging 87. Which is his real form?
I actually would take Cripps in front of Gibbs. Cripps is a player that should be on the up, where as Gibbs has "stagnated" in 3 of the 4 previous seasons. Blame Malthouse if you will, but good players rise above circumstances. Cripps hit a hollow patch between Rounds 9 and 15, but has been good in his last 3 games. Given he has only played 39 games, his hollow patch is more forgivable than Gibbs'. Cripps has the K:H ratio problem, but he's getting back to his best involvements in the game, averaging 12 clearances in his last 3 games. That's elite. Nobody doubts he's a player on the rise, so why can't he give a taste now?
Cripps is owned by twice as many Coaches as Gibbs (10% to 5%), but within the top 1000 Cripps is 5.5% to Gibbs 1.1%, and top 100 it is 2% all, so they are both equal POD's at the pointy end. Ward is 16% overall, 39% top 1000, and 44% top 100, so they both present a bigger POD than Ward (obviously). I think you are more likely to make more ground, by creating a POD, than closing a negative. Of course, it works the other way too. You are also more likely to lose more ground, too.
If it was me, I'd be taking Cripps, if it is out of Gibbs and Ward, I expect Ward to score more, but Gibbs to give you a greater opportunity to climb the ladder. I think I'd still take Ward in front of Gibbs.

Thanks Rowsus. I think if I do make the trade, I'll probably lean towards Ward.
ATM I'm considering maybe just holding back on my final trade as I'm not copping a 0 as yet. The temptation to grab Ward and be done with it is big though!

 

[Slammer]

Hey Rows,

Best score last week with 2451 but still lost my league match ☹️
As a result I tumbled out of the top four for the first time from second to fifth.
5 trades left and with no Danger or a Doc in my side I seem to be struggling.
Still have Hutchings to get rid of and probably Ruggles to finish my backline
My question is do I look for bargain for my D6 like a Johannison and keep some cash up my sleeve to maybe upgrade a mid to Danger the following week
Or do I go all out a bring in the Doc for a negative pod.
My cover in m/f is CSmith or Petracca and would still leave me with Collins at D7 but no m/d or f/d cover.

 

[Manikato1]

Hi Rowsus

Pondering my final trades. The only position I want to upgrade is Collins in the back line. I have two trades and 32k left. I have multiple dpp on every line (d/m, f/m and f/d). The only line I have no coverage on is the ruck.

If I am to upgrade Collins it needs to be to someone worthwhile. I am thinking Shaw. He is due for a change. I tracked his scores back to 2011 (and then gave up) and he has never had a run of more than four games in a row without scoring a ton. So he has his four bad games and is due for a change.

To get Shaw however I need to use both trades, one a downgrade of a bench rookie and then use that cash and the other trade to upgrade Collins. I am sure I can get at least 30pts plus per week out of this trade. However with no trades left if say Danger of Pendles goes down although my bench coverage would be there I would bleed at least that much each week.

So with 5 games to go do I live with Collins just in case I need to replace a premium or damn the torpedoes and go for it? Not worried about leagues just best position in overall I can.

 

[Impromptu]

Rowsus with 439,000 views.

Just a bit of fun, but when will Rowsus reach 500,000 views? ..LOL

 

[blue dreamer]

Hey Rows,

Best score last week with 2451 but still lost my league match ☹️
As a result I tumbled out of the top four for the first time from second to fifth.
5 trades left and with no Danger or a Doc in my side I seem to be struggling.
Still have Hutchings to get rid of and probably Ruggles to finish my backline
My question is do I look for bargain for my D6 like a Johannison and keep some cash up my sleeve to maybe upgrade a mid to Danger the following week
Or do I go all out a bring in the Doc for a negative pod.
My cover in m/f is CSmith or Petracca and would still leave me with Collins at D7 but no m/d or f/d cover.

Hi Slammer, I'm obviously not Rowsus but if you're looking for a bounce back into the top 4 this week I don't think Doc will be able to freewheel in defence against the hawks this week like he has been the last couple of weeks.

FWIW (grain of salt) SC gold predicts 105 for Doc this week against his average of 110 so they seem to agree.

I'm not saying he's a bad trade just that this week might not give you the push back up the ladder you are looking for.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi row

It's the time of year where players get rested or injuried. I was wondering if you could guess who is the best avg top 8 players of every line except the rucks? Which players are going to score the most point in their respective lines?

 

[Juzzo]

How's it Rowsus? (or anyone else who can work this out)

I have one trade left and am thinking Lids (if he's no good for the rest of the year) to Danger.
This can only happen if Danger's price drops to $654,000.

What approximate 2 or 3 week scores will Danger need to score for me to achieve this trade?

Thanks
Juzzo

 

[Slammer]

Hi Slammer, I'm obviously not Rowsus but if you're looking for a bounce back into the top 4 this week I don't think Doc will be able to freewheel in defence against the hawks this week like he has been the last couple of weeks.

FWIW (grain of salt) SC gold predicts 105 for Doc this week against his average of 110 so they seem to agree.

I'm not saying he's a bad trade just that this week might not give you the push back up the ladder you are looking for.

Thanks mate. You make a very valid point and I appreciate the feedback

 

[Presto]

Danger BE = 170, price $682,900
682,900 -654000 =27,100
27,100/440 = 62
170-62=108

Danger needs to score 62 points under his BE for his price to drop to $654,000

 

[MC's Mix]

How's it Rowsus? (or anyone else who can work this out)

I have one trade left and am thinking Lids (if he's no good for the rest of the year) to Danger.
This can only happen if Danger's price drops to $654,000.

What approximate 2 or 3 week scores will Danger need to score for me to achieve this trade?

Thanks
Juzzo

Is it worth waiting 2-3 weeks to bring him in? Perhaps you should consider other options.