Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,
Just an update on what I said before.

I think I may do... Nothing.

With Boyd out, I'm genuinely considering waiting another week, and seeing what the lay of the land is for everyone else. I still have 1 finger short of a handful of trades left, whereas some people above me would surely only have 1-2.

With McVeigh back, I am fielding a full team, but am I foolish in trying to out wait the competition to make a better decision?

I would still consider Howard to Naismith. Ruck cover for future events, should score ok with Sinclair out (has Ruck "easy" teams in Freo, Port & StK the next 3 games), and offers you the chance to loophole a Fwd score most weeks, as well as giving you cover up Forward, and in the Rucks. He will pretty much be out of reach next week, as it will require 2 trades, or Menadue to get him.

 

[Saintellica]

Hi Rowsus,

Hope you are well. Have been enjoying reading all your advice and analysis again this season and applying to my side except I traded in Deledio a week before you said not to. He was consistent for me up until he got injured which is what you said would happen.

Anyway trying to finish off my side before finals but keep getting hurdles placed in front of me (last week Hall) who I moved on. I still need to upgrade either Kerridge or Petracca and also don't know if I should wait another week to see if Deledio comes back in. My backline and mids are done (Libba may need to go).

I have 6 trades and $128,600. Thinking of going Kerridge to Franklin for starters and waiting to see how Dahlhaus goes this week before moving on Delidio if he doesn't play next week. Would love to get Merrett but think he is a bit overpriced at the minute.

Any quick thoughts would be awesome.

cheers Saint

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Hope you are well. Have been enjoying reading all your advice and analysis again this season and applying to my side except I traded in Deledio a week before you said not to. He was consistent for me up until he got injured which is what you said would happen.

Anyway trying to finish off my side before finals but keep getting hurdles placed in front of me (last week Hall) who I moved on. I still need to upgrade either Kerridge or Petracca and also don't know if I should wait another week to see if Deledio comes back in. My backline and mids are done (Libba may need to go).

I have 6 trades and $128,600. Thinking of going Kerridge to Franklin for starters and waiting to see how Dahlhaus goes this week before moving on Delidio if he doesn't play next week. Would love to get Merrett but think he is a bit overpriced at the minute.

Any quick thoughts would be awesome.

cheers Saint

Hi Saint,
I think I would trade Kerridge before Petracca, both on recent form and B/E's.
I'd also be a bit wary of Franklin. While there seems to be a slightly different air about him this season, his history says he not only misses games late in the season, but he also scores at a rate lower than he had been earlier in the season.

At this stage of the season there is no use waiting for Zerrett to drop in price if you want him, just have at it. As for Dahlhaus, it might be worth waiting at least this week, given the question marks on first game back, added to his huge B/E.

 

[Saintellica]

Hi Saint,
I think I would trade Kerridge before Petracca, both on recent form and B/E's.
I'd also be a bit wary of Franklin. While there seems to be a slightly different air about him this season, his history says he not only misses games late in the season, but he also scores at a rate lower than he had been earlier in the season.

At this stage of the season there is no use waiting for Zerrett to drop in price if you want him, just have at it. As for Dahlhaus, it might be worth waiting at least this week, given the question marks on first game back, added to his huge B/E.

Once again thanks for the effort you always put in on this site for all of us. Its funny how I have been playing this game since 2009 but have never mentioned to my opponents that I have a mentor who helps me out weekly with the info you provide to everyone.

cheers Saint

 

[bomberboy]

I would still consider Howard to Naismith. Ruck cover for future events, should score ok with Sinclair out (has Ruck "easy" teams in Freo, Port & StK the next 3 games), and offers you the chance to loophole a Fwd score most weeks, as well as giving you cover up Forward, and in the Rucks. He will pretty much be out of reach next week, as it will require 2 trades, or Menadue to get him.

Yeah, think I'll be doing this, thanks Row. Can't loophole him this week the way I'd like, but think it's a very solid option. Hopefully he can smash out a good score this week and hit some form for when I can loophole him next week!

Edit: Is it still worth doing if I can't get any benefit from him for the next 2 weeks? (my loophole agents are Menadue and Phillips, who play 2nd/3rd game this week, and 1st game next week). I guess I can do it for cover still, but loses a bit of its shine.

 

[Rowsus]

Yeah, think I'll be doing this, thanks Row. Can't loophole him this week the way I'd like, but think it's a very solid option. Hopefully he can smash out a good score this week and hit some form for when I can loophole him next week!

Edit: Is it still worth doing if I can't get any benefit from him for the next 2 weeks? (my loophole agents are Menadue and Phillips, who play 2nd/3rd game this week, and 1st game next week). I guess I can do it for cover still, but loses a bit of its shine.

While it's a risk, as it technically might leave you without cover, I really think you should be loopholing D Martin and Naismith this week.
It's moves like this that potentially can make you 50 or 60 in one week.
Sit Martin at F7 with the E on him.
Put Naismith at F6.
Swap Menadue and Phillips
Hope Martin gets a corky, or stinks it up with a 50 or 60.
If he scores a 90+, swap Phillips at F8 with Naismith at F6.

Imagine if Martin goes low for some reason, and Naismith high. Pretty much everyone above you will have Martin's score locked in, and you have the choice of taking Martin or Naismith. A Martin 50 swapped to a Naismith 110 could be gold. The only thing you lose by trying this move is potentially your late out cover.

While Dusty has been in ripping form, he has produced more poor scores than you might think!

[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]90-81[/td]
[td]80-71[/td]
[td]70-61[/td]
[td]sub 61[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2016[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

 

[bomberboy]

While it's a risk, as it technically might leave you without cover, I really think you should be loopholing D Martin and Naismith this week.
It's moves like this that potentially can make you 50 or 60 in one week.
Sit Martin at F7 with the E on him.
Put Naismith at F6.
Swap Menadue and Phillips
Hope Martin gets a corky, or stinks it up with a 50 or 60.
If he scores a 90+, swap Phillips at F8 with Naismith at F6.

Imagine if Martin goes low for some reason, and Naismith high. Pretty much everyone above you will have Martin's score locked in, and you have the choice of taking Martin or Naismith. A Martin 50 swapped to a Naismith 110 could be gold. The only thing you lose by trying this move is potentially your late out cover.

While Dusty has been in ripping form, he has produced more poor scores than you might think!

[table="width: 600"]
[tr]
[td]Year[/td]
[td]90-81[/td]
[td]80-71[/td]
[td]70-61[/td]
[td]sub 61[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2016[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014[/td]
[td]3[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]-[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013[/td]
[td]4[/td]
[td]2[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[td]1[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

I like it. I really like it actually. It's relatively risk free too for me at least, as I'll be able to cover any late outs somehow as I'll have access to a phone. This is the kind of 'risk' I need to take without actually introducing a negative pod!

 

[EGALegends]

Hi EGALegends,
I understand your goal, but I think you've gone about it the wrong way.
There are not many POD's amongst your starting 22, so if you have a good week, so will 20,000 other Coaches.
I think you need to seperate your team from the flock, if you attempt something like this. For example, have a Midfield with Bontempelli, Coniglio, Steven and Neale. Yes, you have Coniglio, but the rest of your team is very Cookie-Cutter. If I was attacking a project like this, I would want 3 Defs, 4 Mids, 1 Ruck and 3 Fwds outside the 20+% owned range.
To be honest, outside of having one ticket in a 20,000 ticket raffle, I can't see how you can achieve your goal this year.
Throw some Hail Mary's, maybe, but it's too little, too late.
Maybe Goldstein to Jacobs, and Selwood to Neale or Steven. Your only chance is to separate yourself from a very large flock!

Thanks for the reply Rowsus. Interesting comments. I did consider Goldstein to Jacobs a few weeks ago, but (incorrectly) backed Goldstein to improve.

I understand what you are saying, but I deliberately decided not to be too out there. I liken it to a situation from a tipping competition a couple of years ago. I happened to look at the results one day and saw that one of my opponents had correctly tipped a big upset to get one up on me. As the next game started, I noticed he had gone for the big upset again. He gave the advantage straight back! Having too many PODs would do the same thing. Some would be up and some would be down, balancing things out.

I have no Docherty or Hannebery, I have Coniglio and Rockliff, Sloane was less popular when I got him, Deledio was a (dud) risk, and the captain selection can be a POD. Four or 5 differences every week is quite a variation. I've finished around 1500th for the last 2 weeks and I even got a top 10 finish in the toughest supporter's league, the mighty Demons! I would never question your views on probability , but I feel as though I currently have a 1 in 5000 chance each week, or maybe better. I'm trying to win a week but don't seriously think I can, but my aim was to give myself a 1 in 5000 chance (or something like that) for the last 7 or 8 weeks, and see what happens!

Even if I don't win a week, I could end up with something better, one of the SC Scores top 1000 medals. .

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the reply Rowsus. Interesting comments. I did consider Goldstein to Jacobs a few weeks ago, but (incorrectly) backed Goldstein to improve.

I understand what you are saying, but I deliberately decided not to be too out there. I liken it to a situation from a tipping competition a couple of years ago. I happened to look at the results one day and saw that one of my opponents had correctly tipped a big upset to get one up on me. As the next game started, I noticed he had gone for the big upset again. He gave the advantage straight back! Having too many PODs would do the same thing. Some would be up and some would be down, balancing things out.

I have no Docherty or Hannebery, I have Coniglio and Rockliff, Sloane was less popular when I got him, Deledio was a (dud) risk, and the captain selection can be a POD. Four or 5 differences every week is quite a variation. I've finished around 1500th for the last 2 weeks and I even got a top 10 finish in the toughest supporter's league, the mighty Demons! I would never question your views on probability , but I feel as though I currently have a 1 in 5000 chance each week, or maybe better. I'm trying to win a week but don't seriously think I can, but my aim was to give myself a 1 in 5000 chance (or something like that) for the last 7 or 8 weeks, and see what happens!

Even if I don't win a week, I could end up with something better, one of the SC Scores top 1000 medals. .

I see what you're saying, but here's my take on it.
Given the vagaries of player scoring, Captains etc, you might be in that 1 in 5,000 draw maybe 8 times during the season.
Chance of victory = roughly 5,000/8 = 1 in 625.

(for the pernickity of you 4999/5000^8 = 1 in 625.44 of you winning one prize or more)

If you structured a more POD set up, you might be in contention only twice during the season, when enough of your POD's succeed, and enough of the popular picks fail. You might be competing with 300 other teams with a similar enough POD set up.
Chance of victory = roughly 300/2 = 1 in 150.

(pernickity people say 299/300^2 = 1 in 150.25 of you winning one prize or more)

I'd rather 2 tickets in a 300 ticket raffle, than 8 tickets in a 5,000 ticket raffle, when we are trying to win exactly the same prize.
The comparison to footy tipping isn't quite comparing apples with apples.

Certainly your approach would seem more likely to earn you a SCS medal! Good luck, I hope you get one!

 

[Eagling]

Hi Rowsus;

Just want to check on your current opinion on Hannebery; you said that you wouldn't want to trade him in as an Ablett replacement at $540k; at about $50k cheaper, and after a couple of poor scores followed by today's showing against Fremantle, do you think he's turned a corner, or is this just a flash in the pan?

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus;

Just want to check on your current opinion on Hannebery; you said that you wouldn't want to trade him in as an Ablett replacement at $540k; at about $50k cheaper, and after a couple of poor scores followed by today's showing against Fremantle, do you think he's turned a corner, or is this just a flash in the pan?

Hi Eagling,
I think we should always be careful making decisions based on a game that is an absolute smashing.

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi row
Who is the best forward for a replacement for lids? Currently have Zorko Martin Merrett montayna wells.
Do you think Gunston is worth a trade? Buddy? Dahlhaus?

Thanks

 

[Rowsus]

Hi ad,
I think I'd go Gunston.
Last 13 scores include a 58, 95 and 96 and the rest 100+, and 5 of those 10 100+ scores are 110+.
He doesn't go Large too often, but as demonstrated, he doesn't let you down often either.

 

[Eagling]

Hey Rowsus.

Trying to replace Libba; I have 5 trades, and the funds to do so will be raised with a Kerridge to Marcon trade, so I'll have enough $$$ to get anyone.

I've taken Marcon over Menegola by balance of potential JS etc, plus it gives me a handy $15k. Never know when you might need it.

---

I've narrowed the leading options down a bit. I've been looking at Bomber18's SOS for the remainder of the year.



#1: Rory Sloane.

Adelaide has 2 easy followed by 2 medium games. The only concern is the potential Mitch Robinson tag. I reckon Sloane would be the straightforward trade in.

#2: Marcus Bontempelli

Had a down game last week; with Libba out, he'll surely be in the thick of things - but is that a good thing or a bad thing? 2 medium followed by 2 easy games

#3: Stephen Coniglio. POD choice. 2 medium/2 easy games. GWS could win their last 4, which apparently means good things according to your Ablett Replacement options thread.

#4: Patrick Cripps. Bit a different one. Carlton has 3 easy, 1 medium game from here, and IIRC, Cripps can beat up on the weaker teams. The Blues could go 4-0 from now too.

---

Those are the main options I've narrowed it down to, although I'm certainly open to changing my mind. My current MID is Dangerfield, Selwood, Pendlebury, Rockliff, Priddis, Steven and Neale.

 

[a_gups]

Hey Rowsus

Similar question to Eagling's, which midfielder has the best sc finals run? Already have danger, selwood, pendles, sloane, hanners, ward and coniglio.

Im considering Cripps or Gibbs, both relatively low priced and a favourable draw. Concern is the robinson tag and possibly viney/vince tag when they play melbourne, but its hard to say who they'll go to. Robinson went to gibbs the last time they played and he had a putrid 42 pts.

I also like JPK, but at almost 600k im not sure he'd be worth the return with his finals run. Happy to hear any other suggestions you've got or any stats

Cheers!

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus.

Trying to replace Libba; I have 5 trades, and the funds to do so will be raised with a Kerridge to Marcon trade, so I'll have enough $$$ to get anyone.

I've taken Marcon over Menegola by balance of potential JS etc, plus it gives me a handy $15k. Never know when you might need it.

---

I've narrowed the leading options down a bit. I've been looking at Bomber18's SOS for the remainder of the year.



#1: Rory Sloane.

Adelaide has 2 easy followed by 2 medium games. The only concern is the potential Mitch Robinson tag. I reckon Sloane would be the straightforward trade in.

#2: Marcus Bontempelli

Had a down game last week; with Libba out, he'll surely be in the thick of things - but is that a good thing or a bad thing? 2 medium followed by 2 easy games

#3: Stephen Coniglio. POD choice. 2 medium/2 easy games. GWS could win their last 4, which apparently means good things according to your Ablett Replacement options thread.

#4: Patrick Cripps. Bit a different one. Carlton has 3 easy, 1 medium game from here, and IIRC, Cripps can beat up on the weaker teams. The Blues could go 4-0 from now too.

---

Those are the main options I've narrowed it down to, although I'm certainly open to changing my mind. My current MID is Dangerfield, Selwood, Pendlebury, Rockliff, Priddis, Steven and Neale.

Hi Eagling,
it can be a complicated question. The answer can vary on whether your focus is Leagues or overall. And even then, if it is Leagues, it can depend on whether you desperately need a win this week, or you are confident of making the GF, and are planning your team accordingly.
I'll keep it simple. I'd be choosing between Sloane and Coniglio. I wouldn't let Robbo stop you getting Sloane. He hasn't really stopped anyone since Round 13, and opposition Mids are putting up acceptable scores against Brisbane. Coniglio is definitely more POD factor, and has 10 of his last 15 scores at 110+, and only 2 poor scores in that time.
I'd probably go Coniglio to get the POD.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus

Similar question to Eagling's, which midfielder has the best sc finals run? Already have danger, selwood, pendles, sloane, hanners, ward and coniglio.

Im considering Cripps or Gibbs, both relatively low priced and a favourable draw. Concern is the robinson tag and possibly viney/vince tag when they play melbourne, but its hard to say who they'll go to. Robinson went to gibbs the last time they played and he had a putrid 42 pts.

I also like JPK, but at almost 600k im not sure he'd be worth the return with his finals run. Happy to hear any other suggestions you've got or any stats

Cheers!

Hey a_gups,
as you may have read last week, I prefer Cripps to Gibbs. I think he is still on the up, and has come out of mini-slump, and is playing as well as he ever has.
I wouldn't be too concerned with JPK's draw. He sometimes plays better in tougher games, than easy games. I think he'd by my preference over Cripps, especially as you already have Coniglio! (Well done! )

 

[Eagling]

Thanks a lot, Rowsus. I'm trying to wrangle a top 1k finish and win a couple of leagues, but I reckon the leagues' objective is more likely. QF in my 1st League and EF in my second. I reckon I can make the GF, but the leagues are pretty tight. I do like a POD, so I'll probably grab Coniglio.

 

[Eagling]

Just as a PS, would you have equal confidence, in general to use the VC/C on Coniglio as you would with Sloane?

 

[Shaahorn]

Hi Rowsus,

Supercoach Draft question here: I have managed to have all of Nic Nat, Sandi and Lycett in my squad after some careful selections of the waiver list.

I am going to play Lycett on field foward so I want to know who do you think scores the highest this week out of Sandi & Nic Nat in the derby?