Hey Row,
I seem to be entering this thread a lot more lately, but my questions are more game theory than specific players.
I'm currently sitting 300 points behind 10th, my (unrealistic) goal, but I figure I have more trades than most above me. With 5 rounds to go, am I better off using a trade this week and trying to catch that ground, or saving my trades for a bang bang bang bang in the last 2 weeks?
This is something I'd like opinions on from the community as well if anyone thinks differently!
For now, I'd suggest using a trade if you expect it to gain you 150 points until season's end, and otherwise save it. This will depend on any negative PODs you might have (from memory your 22 is top shelf), your cover, who might miss through injury, and how long they will be out
If you're going for overall, you don't want to leave your trades too late, in my view. Even if Danger missed round 23, the most the trade to cover him would be worth (ex ante) might be 120 (whatever you expect his replacement to score - noting that you will have almost all the top mids already, but also that you could pick one with a favorable final game).
Trades used now should be able to add more than 120 points, in most sensible cases (replacing a Barlow type, eg) so they're better used now, so long as they're genuine LTI replacements for premiums, or preventing more than one donut/one donut with a semi-upgrade built in. Don't start sidewaysing, but I wouldn't be trying to "save" trades until round 23 per se - they are there to be used, just try to get the maximum value out of each of them (which usually implies getting a multi-week benefit from them).
PS: I think this is good "all purpose" advice for anyone focused on overall rank, but if you are specifically trying to maximize your chances of catching up 300 points to finish in the top 10, that strengthens the argument for erring earlier rather than later. In an extreme case, you might have a healthy best 22 in the final two rounds, and gain almost no points from four sideways trades! Better to have a small "sidewaysing" benefit for 4-5 weeks than just for 1 or 2, in that example.
That's ripper advice. I guess looking at my team the only negative pods I have are not having Docherty or Selwood, but I still believe I can draw even.
For reference, here is my first 22:
Simpson, Laird, Rance, McVeigh, Shaw, Bartel
Danger, Pendles, Hanners, Priddis, Parker, Ward, Steven, Sloane
Gawn, Goldstein
Martin, Montagna, Franklin, Merrett, Zorko, Wells
I'm thinking a possibility is trading Wells to someone, but he is too good when he plays to justify it...
That team is very solid! I'd just sit on my trades and use them if needed. Sometimes trading does more harm than good.
I don't think you need to do anything too rash to make up 300 points. Who knows, you might only need to make it to 11th
Hey bb,
there are a lot of variables to be taken into account, the main ones being:
What cash, and cash generating options do you have?
What cover do you have?
As a general answer to your question, I'd say you are better off not trading just for tradings sake, which trading Wells would appear to be. Rather than side trading your lower Prems, I'd be looking to build DPP loopholing options. Being able to look at some of your "flakier" Prems, before locking their scores in, can be invaluable, and sometimes more value than side-trading.
Well my cover on each line is as follows
Collins, Ueber
Joyce, Trengrove, Phillips
Cox
Menadue, Howard
And 47.5k in the bank.
Are there any straight swaps from those I have on the bench currently that might stand out?
I think that's right bomberboy, it looks hard to find a trade that is warranted, in terms of giving you c. 150+ points, with that team (which is a good thing!). Personally Wells wouldn't even be the first forward I'd trade (he's ahead of Montagna and Buddy for mine), but there certainly aren't any huge negative PODs I can see as things stand.
The main risk for you would be injuries to your players, the main opportunity injuries to players you don't own. Row's advice to try to build cover looks sensible to me (not surprisingly
). It looks like you're fractionally short of an amount that would allow you to upgrade cover to a semi-premium (Menadue to Dahl, eg). Dahl, once he bottoms out, would be the type I'd look for (good scorer, cheap, DPP, shouldn't need a rest). If you can use your trades to avoid donuts in the first instance, and progressively build better cover, I'd say that's the best thing you can do at this point.
The main example I can think of where you might use your next trade more proactively would be if really good cheap cover was available and on the bubble (let's say a Clay Smith type, although I get that not everyone likes him).
The risk there would obviously be that you didn't bring him in, and then he got too expensive, and you couldn't get him later on when you wanted to.
Let's tackle this one at a time.
Waiting to the end, and going "bang, bang, bang, bang" requires there to be at least two or three popular Prems injured or rested in the last Rounds, and there being adequate replacements available. It seems like a high risk, low chance strategy that all that might happen in just the last 2 Rounds.
What you do this week is hugely dependent on team selections this week. You currently have little to no cover, and no-one of any great worth to loophole.
If Cox doesn't reappear this week, after the poorish showing from Cloke, Moore and White, I think you have to assume he won't be there for you if needed again this season. A similar sentiment could be applied to Menadue, and you have to query the value of his cover anyway. Take out his 130, and he's a shakey JS cover averaging 51!
If Cox doesn't reappear, I'd be suggesting you get Naismith, even though he has had a price rise. I actually thought this before the news of Sinclair's injury, and that just reinforces it even more. The question is, who makes way for him? Cox, Menadue or Howard? Obviously not Menadue, if he is selected this week.
Unfortunately, going down a traditional route doesn't leave you a lot of cattle to choose from. We can re-visit once the teams drop, but it's looking something like: Menadue/Howard to Naismith/Sexton. Not as strong as you'd like, but your options are restricted by a lack of cash, and a lack of fattening cows. Sexton played nearly all Mid last week, and played well. He, along with Miller and J Martin appear to be the beneficiaries of all GC's Mids being out. Sexton has averaged 82 since the bye, and had 7 Clearances, and 14 Inside 50's last week. I know it looks a strange option, but it is better than sideway trading Wells. It would leave your cover at:
Def:
Collins,
Uebergang
Mid:
Joyce,
Sexton,
Trengove
Ruck:
Cox
Fwd:
Naismith,
Phillips
4 playing coverage players, that can all bar Collins swap to another line. You can even use Trengove to loophole Sexton most weeks, on the odd chance he goes big, or a Mid fails.
Obviously it would be better to build stronger coverage if you could, but unfortunately, it would take 3 trades to reach a decent/strong option. At least this gives you multi coverage. It gives you:
Def: Collins & Joyce (for McVeigh)
Mid: Sexton & Joyce
Ruck: Naismith
Fwd: Naismith & Sexton
It beats your current:
Def: Collins & Joyce (for McVeigh)
Mid: Joyce
Ruck: -
Fwd: -
and still leaves you trades for LTI problems.
The other option of side-trading is more of a lottery, but potentially does the job for you. You'd need to find a player owned by a high percentage of the top 100, that might fail from here, and replace him with a successful pick. Depending on the line, and the player, it might make you as much as 20-30/Round. The problem is two-fold. Finding the "failing" player, and finding a successful replacement.
He probably needs to be owned by at least 40% for this to be an option, which leaves your options as:
Def: Shaw, Simpson, Rance
Mid: Dangerfield, Pendlebury, Hannebery, Parker, Priddis, Sloane, Ward
Ruck: Gawn, Goldstein
Fwd: Martin, Zorko, Montagna, Merrett
To compound the positive effect, it would be best to replace the player with a lower percentage owned player. If, for example, you were able to trade Hannebery to Selwood, the points gained are nullified by 64% of the top 100 already owning Selwood. Yes, you close off a negative POD against you, but most of the Coaches you are trying to pass have Selwood, so it only leaves Steven as a real chance to make points against the other Coaches. If you replaced Hannebery with a JPK, Bont or Coniglio, you have doubled your chances of gaining points in any given week. Keep in mind, that it is always a two edged sword with POD's though. If you double the opportunity to gain points, you also double your opportunity to lose points, too!
The popular players you have, that I think are some sort of chance to tank it from here are, in no particular order:
Rance, Hannebery, Ward, Goldstein, Montagna
As to who replaces them, we can visit that option if you decide to go down that path after the teams drop tonight.
