Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[jaca]

Hi Rowsus,
Do you have a similar view on 2017 Gawn that you had on 2016 Goldy?
Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus. So if I said I thought Carlton could be the team to improve those 3 or 4 spots what likely candidates are there for break outs? Or how about a sneaky revival of fortunes a la M Murphy??

Hi Man1,
I think you might have nailed the problem, as to why Carlton won't be the team to jump up 4 spots or so. Outside of Cripps, they don't seem to have a lot of exciting talent on the rise, particularly from a SC point of view.
I don't really want to force a square peg into a round hole, by naming players that might breakout, when I really don't give them much hope of doing so.
Sorry.

 

[Rowsus]

wondering what your opinion on callum mills is for this season?

it has been mentioned that he could take mitchells spot in the midfield and newman takes mills's spot at half back which would be awesome for s/c if true

i know that picking 2nd year players isn't encouraged but i think if what i mentioned is to be true he could be a very good pick

While I'm not sure about Mills as a pick, what I do know is that Newman was told by Longmire that there is a spot available in the back half for the taking. In fact he was very close to coming into the team late last year before Longmire went with Jones instead (ironically another peninsula boy)

Apologies for dropping in on your thread here Rowsus.

^ Hmmm ... Whose spot in the back half would Newman be taking?

I'm wondering more from a Newman/Heeney perspective, but it sounds like it's all connected.

newman takes mills's spot and mills takes mitchells spot and heeney continues on his finals form

I have a sneaky yet unfounded, foundationless belief that Jarrad McVeigh might be on the outer. 1) He has been removed as co-captain (including Jack), so he cannot just walk into the team like he did in the eve of the 2016 grand final. 2) Longmire having seen that a zippy, lightning quick half back can win (or have significant influence breaking defensive lines) a grand final and Norm Smith medal in JJ, might experiment with a few younger players at that role. 3) The age old question of age and being on the wrong side of 30. We have seen countless players over 30 excelling in their position and in the "modern game", however, from my observation of McVeigh, he was the player that Longmire wanted to be that fast and zippy player to break lines. There is no question that McVeigh has exceptional footy smarts and calming influence over games from defense, however, footy game styles adapt ever few seasons. Right now, the handball-happy Bulldogs have shown that you cannot outrun a football in close quarters with this free-playing and unselfish style. Included in this new game style is the attacking half back. Nothing new to the style of player but the importance of having an A grade one has and look at what has changed since the end of the 2016 season - JJ won a Norm Smith, Andrew McGrath (an all-rounder player but predominately an attacking half back) was selected number 1 by Essendon over the best "complete" midfielder in the game (arguably McCluggage given he is a goal kicking midfielder). McVeigh might still have a spot in the Swans best 22 but if Newman is an attacking half back from what I have heard, he is likely to see some game time.

On Nic Newman that I have just found. Won the BOG medal in a losing Swans NEAFL Grand Final side. Has yet to debut after 2 seasons on the list but was given a new two-year contract at the end of the 2016 season (this is without any demonstration that he can play against the bigger AFL bodies). He is a mature aged player given he is 24 this year, which only helps his case for playing this season.

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2016-09-13/new-deal-for-newy

I don't subscribe to the theory that one player steps up, and fills the void, when a player like Titchell leaves. Mills will fill part of it, Heeney will fill part of it, Lloyd will likely fill part of it as well. This is important to note, otherwise some people will be thinking that a Mills or Heeney steps into the role, and immediately scores in the vicinity, or a bit below, the player that created the void. That can work sometimes with taller players, but not often with Midfielders. What most teams will do in that situation is take the opportunity to educate a number of younger players, while identifying who is best suited to long term. It's possible one player will step up, and grab the opportunity by the scruff, and make a statement along the lines of "this role is mine", but is more likely in different weeks, different periods, different players will shine, due to this new opportunity. Mills and Lloyd look to be the easiest ones to take a risk on in 2017, as they only have to fill a Def role in your team, so the requirement, in theory, is less than what would be required of Heeney as a Fwd.
There is no doubt Mills is a class player, and there have been players reach SC relevancy in their 2nd seasons, so it is a possibility Mills is a good pick, but a lot more don't make the grade than do, so I'm not sure I'd be taking a risk on Mills in 2017.

 

[Darkie]

I don't subscribe to the theory that one player steps up, and fills the void, when a player like Titchell leaves. Mills will fill part of it, Heeney will fill part of it, Lloyd will likely fill part of it as well. This is important to note, otherwise some people will be thinking that a Mills or Heeney steps into the role, and immediately scores in the vicinity, or a bit below, the player that created the void. That can work sometimes with taller players, but not often with Midfielders. What most teams will do in that situation is take the opportunity to educate a number of younger players, while identifying who is best suited to long term. It's possible one player will step up, and grab the opportunity by the scruff, and make a statement along the lines of "this role is mine", but is more likely in different weeks, different periods, different players will shine, due to this new opportunity. Mills and Lloyd look to be the easiest ones to take a risk on in 2017, as they only have to fill a Def role in your team, so the requirement, in theory, is less than what would be required of Heeney as a Fwd.
There is no doubt Mills is a class player, and there have been players reach SC relevancy in their 2nd seasons, so it is a possibility Mills is a good pick, but a lot more don't make the grade than do, so I'm not sure I'd be taking a risk on Mills in 2017.

^ Thanks Row, that's a good point.

I was thinking a similar thing in relation to Thurlow. His price is appealing, but his history suggests there may not be a lot to commend him as a cash cow. If he stepped into Enright's role and performed anything like Enright, he could be a very good pick (acknowledging Enright's very high standards) ... But Mackie looks to be slowing down as well, and I suspect that adds uncertainty as to what role Thurlow will play, and may mean more of a mixed role. Unless he does extremely well in the NAB I've put a line through him.

One thing this did make me think about Heeney is: whose midfield role (or, perhaps more to your point Row, whose midfield minutes) was he taking in those finals when he played and scored well? It seems that, in a number of very important games, Heeney was both able to get those minutes even before Mitchell's departure, and then able to play and score well - suggesting he should be first in line when more minutes become available. Whoever was missing out in those minutes might be an additional part of the puzzle, at least as it relates to Heeney. It might be one for a Swans fan/close observer.

 

[Rowsus]

^ Thanks Row, that's a good point.

I was thinking a similar thing in relation to Thurlow. His price is appealing, but his history suggests there may not be a lot to commend him as a cash cow. If he stepped into Enright's role and performed anything like Enright, he could be a very good pick (acknowledging Enright's very high standards) ... But Mackie looks to be slowing down as well, and I suspect that adds uncertainty as to what role Thurlow will play, and may mean more of a mixed role. Unless he does extremely well in the NAB I've put a line through him.

One thing this did make me think about Heeney is: whose midfield role (or, perhaps more to your point Row, whose midfield minutes) was he taking in those finals when he played and scored well? It seems that, in a number of very important games, Heeney was both able to get those minutes even before Mitchell's departure, and then able to play and score well - suggesting he should be first in line when more minutes become available. Whoever was missing out in those minutes might be an additional part of the puzzle, at least as it relates to Heeney. It might be one for a Swans fan/close observer.

I should have been more specific, and noted, that my observation applies more for a player like Mitchell, who was somewhere between 3rd and 6th in the Swans Midfield rotation. If a number one or two Mid goes missing, then that is a completely different kettle of fish.

 

[Rowsus]

could jonathan giles be our saviour once again?

will more than likely be number 1 ruck for the early part of the season which is all you would need him for and is alot more durable than sandilands and younger and cheaper and you cant really rely on vardy staying fit to take his spot

The biggest danger to Giles' value isn't Vardy, but the timing of Lycett's return. You'd hate to start Giles, and have Lycett come back in Round 3, 4 or 5, when you've hardly got enough gain from Giles to consider it a worthwhile exercise. Giles is definitely an option in my planning, but I will be monitoring reports on Lycett between now and then. We already have reports that Lycett is running ok, so unless something happens to cause him a set back, Giles is unlikely to be a good option.
It's a pity too, because in one my (many) teams, I had a Ruck line of: Sandi, Witts, Giles with the idea of waiting for the Rucks to sort themselves out, and turn the 3 of them into the 2 best Premo's + a FD. Not now though.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Do you have a similar view on 2017 Gawn that you had on 2016 Goldy?
Cheers

Hi jaca,
the answer is yes, but to a much lesser extent.
I really struggled this time last year, to understand how people were SO bullish on Goldstein. He had just recorded the highest season ever recorded by a Ruck, and by a long way, and the 15th highest SC average ever recorded, and people were freely writing that his worst downside was 118!!!! To put that in perspective, let's look at Gawn's 118.5 last season. It was the 3rd highest ever recorded by a Ruck, and the 50th best of all time. So in effect, that is what people were saying would/could be Goldstein's worst result!!! How unrealistic is that for an expectation??!!
There in lies why my caution on Gawn isn't as high as it was on Goldy last season. Gawn is only having to deal with the 3rd/50th best season, not the 1st/15th. I'm not saying Gawn can't/won't replicate or beat last seasons efforts, but I am saying the odds and history are stacked against him doing it.
The question was debatted so much last season. What would you call a pass mark, if you started Goldy? As is quite often the case, the question was shown to be not as easy to answer as we first thought. Most wouldn't have accepted 108 as a pass mark, especially with a 99 average over his last 11 games! Having said that, those that Captained his two 170+ scores probably forgave him, and called it a pass anyway!
So what would we call a pass mark from Gawn? If I paid his high price, I'd want at least 108, and a top 2 Ruck finish to be even remotely satisfied. Given we want to get as much value we can out of our non-Captain intended 12-14 Keepers, I'm more likely to say I'd want 110-112 from Gawn to say he was a good choice. 110 would be the 20th/182nd best season, 112 the 14th/140th best.
At the moment, I'm happy to back history, and say that Gawn will be at worst regrettable, and at best, still reachable if he pleases those that start with him. Keeping in mind, the higher you climb up the mountain, the harder you fall (when you do fall), my view on Gawn is similar to my view on Goldy last year, but a bit more watered down than what it was last year.

 

[jarrad_]

The biggest danger to Giles' value isn't Vardy, but the timing of Lycett's return. You'd hate to start Giles, and have Lycett come back in Round 3, 4 or 5, when you've hardly got enough gain from Giles to consider it a worthwhile exercise. Giles is definitely an option in my planning, but I will be monitoring reports on Lycett between now and then. We already have reports that Lycett is running ok, so unless something happens to cause him a set back, Giles is unlikely to be a good option.
It's a pity too, because in one my (many) teams, I had a Ruck line of: Sandi, Witts, Giles with the idea of waiting for the Rucks to sort themselves out, and turn the 3 of them into the 2 best Premo's + a FD. Not now though.

i to had the same ruck line until i saw the lycett news so i decided to downgrade lynch and upgrade giles to grundy

whats your view on witts being a viable r3? its been mentioned quite a bit around here and was wondering what your view is?

 

[jarrad_]

whats your view on ollie wines this year?

i know he has burnt a few people but it is his fifth year this year and has played 79 games my only concern is that port adelaide are not that good a team which could hold him back potentially

kennedy and fyfe had break out years in their fifth years

admittedly kennedys was in a premiership winning team so that would have added a few extra points no doubt

and freo finished 4th in fyfes 5th year which would have also added extra points

which i doubt very much wines will get but i still think he will be a good choice this year

 

[Rowsus]

i to had the same ruck line until i saw the lycett news so i decided to downgrade lynch and upgrade giles to grundy

whats your view on witts being a viable r3? its been mentioned quite a bit around here and was wondering what your view is?

I like him, but will be watching him closely in the pre-season. I'm not sure why people think it's a lot to spend, sitting on the bench. If he was one of 3 Mid bench players, and you were unlikely to start him in any given week, I could understand it. But he's not, he will be your only cover on the Ruck bench, and to me, that's gold. It's not just Sandi that can miss games. What if Gawn/Goldy miss one early on? Those without cover face a trade, or a donut. Surely the extra spent on Witts in those circumstances is prudent. He only needs to average mid-low 70's to make $150k, and there is never really 20 Rookies that do that early enough in the season to be traded out, so that would also make him a good pick. Pre-season pending, he will be in my team.

whats your view on ollie wines this year?

i know he has burnt a few people but it is his fifth year this year and has played 79 games my only concern is that port adelaide are not that good a team which could hold him back potentially

kennedy and fyfe had break out years in their fifth years

admittedly kennedys was in a premiership winning team so that would have added a few extra points no doubt

and freo finished 4th in fyfes 5th year which would have also added extra points

which i doubt very much wines will get but i still think he will be a good choice this year

After 84 games, this season would be the last season that you'd entertain taking him, otherwise, his scoring pattern will look largely set, outside of a spike season somewhere.
Personally, I think you should look elsewhere. In the last 3 seasons he has played 60 games including finals, and has only managed 14 games in that period where his TOG% exceeded 80%. Only the very elite can score at a good SC level, when they are consistently playing under 80% TOG, and I can't see that changing with Wines. He rarely seems to rest Forward, and pad his score with goals either, having only scored 23 goals in his last 56 games. Pass.

 

[jarrad_]

i suppose you can add nick vlastuin to the shaun atley club of moving to the midfield this year cant you?

or do you think it could happenin his case?

 

[stephen]

Is there any merit to the idea that running defenders scored better last season? Simpson, Docherty, Boyd.. Enright had his equal best year at age 35. Do you know if it was just the top or across the board?

If so, do you think it was probably caused by the rule changes at the start of last year and therefore likely to continue?

If so, do you think there might be more upside to Michael Hibberd than appears at first glance?

 

[BigRuss]

I like him, but will be watching him closely in the pre-season. I'm not sure why people think it's a lot to spend, sitting on the bench. If he was one of 3 Mid bench players, and you were unlikely to start him in any given week, I could understand it. But he's not, he will be your only cover on the Ruck bench, and to me, that's gold. It's not just Sandi that can miss games. What if Gawn/Goldy miss one early on? Those without cover face a trade, or a donut. Surely the extra spent on Witts in those circumstances is prudent. He only needs to average mid-low 70's to make $150k, and there is never really 20 Rookies that do that early enough in the season to be traded out, so that would also make him a good pick. Pre-season pending, he will be in my team.

Im really quite torn on WItts, lets say everything goes to plan, he averages 75, gives you cover for 1 game Gawn/Goldy misses and is ready to offload round 9. My biggest concern is how to offload him. Do you trade in a R/F FD? Considering youll likely have to start with a different FD trading an extra one in during your up/down cycles is really bad for momentum/generation. Do you start Strnadica at F8 as your FD and only roll with 7 forwards for 8 weeks until the swap out? Really curious as to your thoughts on this cheers mate.

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus wonder what your thoughts are on D Swallow vs Beams.

Swallow won't be a keeper. Beams probably isn't one either. Assuming he does remain somewhat unaffected by the extensive injury and average 110 @ 18 games, that's still an adjusted average of around 102 assuming there's always a 70 pt rookie replacement.

Swallow can make 150k for sure, probably even more. Beams can also make 150 k, but only if he does average near his full potential.

What do you think? I originally had Beams as a lock and Swallow as as a firm no, but seeing neither will produce premium level output for the entire season, and Swallow is far more likely to generate 150k-200k, I'm thinking Swallow might be a better pick.

Swallow also offers a greater yield considering his starting price, probably a 60-70% price increase as opposed to a 25-35% price increase from Beams.

 

[Darkie]

Rowsus, could you please remind me of the thinking behind your "start them or forget them" advice for certain players?

Very happy to reread an old post if you have detailed this previously ... and can recall where that was

 

[Mudflap]

Rowsus - after a terrible 2016 I have had a longer spell between seasons and am now back into SC planning. Have read the last 5 - 6 pages and as usual some fantastic work which will no doubt shape my team.

No questions from me yet but I am sure there will be plenty.

Keep up the great work.

 

[Rowsus]

i suppose you can add nick vlastuin to the shaun atley club of moving to the midfield this year cant you?

or do you think it could happenin his case?

Vlastuin is 2 seasons, 52 games, and 18 months in age behind Atley, but I guess we can put him in the "Atley" club. My thoughts are, with Prestia and Caddy coming in, I can't see Vlastuin's Mid-time increasing dramatically. If it does, who moves out of the Mid to get all those 3 in?

 

[Rowsus]

Is there any merit to the idea that running defenders scored better last season? Simpson, Docherty, Boyd.. Enright had his equal best year at age 35. Do you know if it was just the top or across the board?

If so, do you think it was probably caused by the rule changes at the start of last year and therefore likely to continue?

If so, do you think there might be more upside to Michael Hibberd than appears at first glance?

I'm guessing you must mean endurance running, as opposed to fast running, as a couple of those mentioned aren't really known for speed. If we use bounces taken as a measure of a running player, then last season the top Defenders for bounces taken were:
Shaw 70 (1st overall), Saad 55 (2nd overall, in only 10 games!), Simpson 38 (6th overall), Atley 36 (7th), Pittard 36 (7th), Macmillan 34 (9th).
In 2015 it was Shaw 92 (1st), Saad 74 (2nd), Simpson, Murphy, Houli, Johannisen, Broadbent filled 5th to 9th with between 46 and 35 bounces.
It's not totally unexpected that Defs fill a majority of the top bounce takers, but apart from that, it doesn't really feature most of the players you listed.
Docherty took 23 bounces in 2016, and 12 in 2015. Enright took 3 in 2016 and 2 in 2015. Boyd took 14 bounces in 2016 and 20 in 2015.
Your catagorising them as running players doesn't seem to match up with their stats. As we can see with those listed above, those that actually do carry/run with the ball, aren't necessarily the best scorers!
I think it is more down to a change in the structure of play. Defenders get a lot more stats now, than they did 5 or 10 years ago. It's not unusual for Defs to rack up 30 disposals now, where as 10 years ago, it was a rarity. That is the main reason I see it persisting. There are possibly 10 or 12 Defs that can average 25 disp/game, but 10 years ago, Lake was the 12th best SC Def, and averaged 18/game.
I don't think Hibberd will be that high, but I could be pleasantly surprised.

 

[jarrad_]

Vlastuin is 2 seasons, 52 games, and 18 months in age behind Atley, but I guess we can put him in the "Atley" club. My thoughts are, with Prestia and Caddy coming in, I can't see Vlastuin's Mid-time increasing dramatically. If it does, who moves out of the Mid to get all those 3 in?

it was mentioned that markov would take his half back spot no idea who misses out but it is richmond we are talking aboutand they have to get better somehow and in the games he has played midfield he's scored well

 

[stephen]

I'm guessing you must mean endurance running, as opposed to fast running, as a couple of those mentioned aren't really known for speed. If we use bounces taken as a measure of a running player, then last season the top Defenders for bounces taken were:
Shaw 70 (1st overall), Saad 55 (2nd overall, in only 10 games!), Simpson 38 (6th overall), Atley 36 (7th), Pittard 36 (7th), Macmillan 34 (9th).
In 2015 it was Shaw 92 (1st), Saad 74 (2nd), Simpson, Murphy, Houli, Johannisen, Broadbent filled 5th to 9th with between 46 and 35 bounces.
It's not totally unexpected that Defs fill a majority of the top bounce takers, but apart from that, it doesn't really feature most of the players you listed.
Docherty took 23 bounces in 2016, and 12 in 2015. Enright took 3 in 2016 and 2 in 2015. Boyd took 14 bounces in 2016 and 20 in 2015.
Your catagorising them as running players doesn't seem to match up with their stats. As we can see with those listed above, those that actually do carry/run with the ball, aren't necessarily the best scorers!
I think it is more down to a change in the structure of play. Defenders get a lot more stats now, than they did 5 or 10 years ago. It's not unusual for Defs to rack up 30 disposals now, where as 10 years ago, it was a rarity. That is the main reason I see it persisting. There are possibly 10 or 12 Defs that can average 25 disp/game, but 10 years ago, Lake was the 12th best SC Def, and averaged 18/game.
I don't think Hibberd will be that high, but I could be pleasantly surprised.

Thanks Rowsus! Yes, I didn't put much thought into what I meant by 'running defender'... guess I just meant smaller defender who racks up possessions, which isn't very helpful. I might look a bit more into what connects the defenders who are benefiting from the current structure of play and see if it gets me anywhere. Thanks again and hope your team is coming together nicely!