Hey Rows,
Based on your in depth analysis of players and your responses to everyones questions. I am coming to realse that you are very much in the GnR structure with your team,
which of course has worked for many in the past. It seems your theory is not to start anyone that has the potential to be your D/M/F 6 or even 5 for that matter and rather look to fill those positions down the track.
This I can clearly understand but I guess it puts alot of faith in the fact you select the right rookies who will make you cash to fill those positions.
So this leads to my question on how you perceive the awkwardly priced players that have the potential but have not yet proven to be keepers. Eg. J.Martin who I am currently looking at along with the others like Acres etc. Do you rule them out completely straight away? Or do you actually consider these players with a Risk vs Reward process?
Sorry if it sounds like a bit of a left field question but I currently have J.Martin as F3 as was just wondering if he is too bigger risk at that price.
cheers
Hey Slammer,
most of what you said is right, but just needs a slight tweak.
I'm certainly not against value, or trying to find it. What I am against is forcing an opinion to fit a need or a want. Let me explain by example, but first here is what I replied to Juzzo, when he asked me about Jack Martin back in December:
Great to have you back, Juzzo. It wouldn't be the same without you!
Jack Martin was described as a complete freak, and the greatest thing since Betty White*, before debuted. A great example of junior champion not making the complete step to senior standard.
This his 4th season, and even though the past 2 seasons were only his 2nd and 3rd, given the injury woes GC had, he should have shone a little better, if he was going to make the SC grade this season. First 3 games in 2016: 91, 111, 90. First 2 games after the byes: 103, 116. He's good fresh! But take out those games, and his biggest 2 games streaks in 2016 was: 84, 86 in Rnds 9 & 10, and 81, 93 in Rnd 22 & 23. That's just not going to cut it, even for a Def.
* someone once stated out that Betty White is the greatest thing since sliced bread. He was then told that Betty White was actually born before sliced bread was "invented", so he corrected himself, and said "Sliced bread is the greatest thing since Betty White!"
In my mind, for Martin to improve to SC relevancy, he'd need a role change. I can't see him getting there this year without getting an improvement in Mid time, and given the players in front of him, I can't see him getting that extra time. You'd think if it was on the cards, then last year would have been the perfect time to for him to get some, when GC had so many Mids out.
So back to the example.
My thoughts on Martin's range is something like: 18/80 to 22/90, which makes him a great player to use an example to your question.
In my mind, and on
my expectations, he is unpickable, as he breaks two of my rules.
To be considered a good pick, he needs to perform at the very upper level of my expectations. A 22/90 D6 is at the lower end of the acceptable range most seasons. Why would you risk starting a player that needs to perform to your upper limit of your expectations to be a good pick? Surely he will only do this 10-15% of the time at best.
This also highlights the 2nd broken rule. Don't start players you expect to be your D6/F6. There has to be margin for error, a range, and if you are picking a player now, that you expect to end up your D6, then what if he falls to the lower end of that range? Surely an expected D6 is more likely to fall out of what might be a deemed acceptable scoring range, than an expected D3 for example.
If you get to the end of your team selection, and you have money left over, and you want to use it on a speculative upgrade from a Rookie to a possible D6, then that would seem fine, but don't put that player there to start with. Make him the last player in your team, but have good reason for doing it. Don't just do it because you can, that has a really high failure rate!
The first part of my reply mentioned "What I am against is forcing an opinion to fit a need or a want". What I meant by this is, taking a player, usually a Midpriced pick, and slowly bumping your opinion of him up, until you convince yourself he's a good pick.
Day 1 - J Martin might be a good pick this year. They said he was a freak before he even played a game, and this is his 4th season. A sub-conscious number appears in the back of your head, something like 91-92.
Day 8 - not many have been putting J Martin in their RMT posts. You start to think you've found a good POD. You tell yourself "they've just been getting him ready, getting some meat on his bones, and some air in his lungs, everyone has forgotten him, and he's about to take off!" The number 95 apprears in your sub-conscious.
Day 12 - You are quietly smiling to yourself. You are 90% convinced you've got one of the picks of the season, and he's only in 3% of teams. That little glowing number in the back of your head clicks over to 97 now.
Day 19 - You watch Martin in a JLT game, and it seems everything he does looks great. You're starting to think it might be worthwhile throwing a tenner on him $1001 for the Brownlow! The number in your head has now reached 100!
You have now successfully forced your opinion to meet your need/want. You couldn't pick him before, as he was too borderline, but now, you think he potentially goes at 100 this season, and if he doesn't, surely 92 is his worst case scenario. You've done all this on the basis of little to no evidence. Your first opinion, unless something
happens to make you think differently, is usually a good place to put the upper limit on your expectations, not the lower limit. You need more than some good Mid minutes in a JLT game to alter your opinion, too. Keep in mind, there is only so much physical improvement in a player, then the rest needs to come from improved opportunities.
If we gave Martin a 7 or 8 bump on improved physical abilities, where and how much do you see his opportunities improving enough, to carry him the rest of the way to Keeper level?
Now, all this might lead you to think there are no good value picks, and you need to stick to tried and true Premiums. Not true. I'm sure those busting a nut over Heeney this season are ranging him something like: 19/92 to 22/104. Some of those ranging him like that have probably fallen for the trap above, and some have come to that opinion based on what they have actually seen and know. The thing is, those that are of that opinion with Heeney are not breaking either of my rules in picking him. They don't expect him to fill F6, they have what they see as a reasonable expectation that he could be F2/4. They don't need him to perform at the upper level of his expectations to be a good pick, either. Somewhere in the middle still makes him a worthwhile starting pick. Could he slip to F6? Definitely, but those picking him see that as his downside, not his upside, and therein lies the difference! By all means start a player that ends up D6/F6, but not if that is the upside of your expectations, unless he is the 30th player picked in your team, and you think it's a good use of your leftover cash.
