Opinion Questions For Rowsus
- Thread starter Rowsus
- Start date
- Status
Yeah interesting point. I went Libba, Oliver and Mills but not Parish. If I picked Parish instead of Libba, I'd still would have had Oliver who made less cash than Libba & was a worse pick. So either way, it was just a matter of picking the right starting rookies/cashmakers (as it is every year). I reckon Libba was a great success last season if you started him. Not the worst if you traded him in, but I guess if you had your time again you'd rather Parish though as a trade-in option as you didn't get benefit of the 99 average til his bye. Sorry as well Rowsus for hijacking the thread.
Hey Johnsy,
I think having all of JOM, Swallow and Beams is a bit of overkill, but I can see plenty of teams doing it.
I would want to see something really strongly positive before I took Beams. I have no doubt he will potentially be a top Mid for average, I just fear he might end up 15th - 20th in the PIT70 list for Mids though, and that would be a fail. Right now, he is a very slim chance to be in my team, but that could change.
I think having all of JOM, Swallow and Beams is a bit of overkill, but I can see plenty of teams doing it.
I would want to see something really strongly positive before I took Beams. I have no doubt he will potentially be a top Mid for average, I just fear he might end up 15th - 20th in the PIT70 list for Mids though, and that would be a fail. Right now, he is a very slim chance to be in my team, but that could change.
- Joined
- 2 Feb 2017
- Messages
- 425
- Likes
- 358
Libba averaged about 98 before his bye, and then I think I turned him into Sloane, who had already had his bye and who averaged 111 from then on. In total they played 22 games for me and averaged around 103.
That's actually not a bad PIT average for a mid, it's just a handful of points outside what the 12th best mid has PIT averaged for the last four years (see the link below).
That only cost me $357k to start with, so I had around $200k of loose change to use from day one, relative to selecting someone who played 22 games at 103, and was priced fairly to start with (103 x $5,375 = $554k). The loose change is worth about 40 points per round, and I had most of that for the whole year.
I effectively used $60k of that loose change in upgrading to Sloane (giving up 12 points per round, making it a net of 40 - 12 = 28 per round, for 10 rounds). I obviously used a trade as well.
So the loose change was arguably worth about (40ppg x 13 games) + (28 x 10) = 800 points. From that I would deduct 150, the cost I place on a trade. So the whole arrangement netted me 650 points versus selecting someone at fair value ... which is absolutely massive, about 30ppg.
Perhaps not so concidentally, this is in the order of the discount I got on Libba.
Note that the calcs above assume I could have found a player guaranteed to play 22 up front, which obviously isn't necessarily the case.
The benefits of using Libba as a stepping stone to Sloane could also have been greater if Sloane didn't miss round 23. [I'd already got 22 scores out of the pair though, so I've treated the missed R23 as equivalent to the bye, with a rookie serving as a replacement. If Sloane had played R23, that would have effectively boosted my score during the byes by a bit more, as I would have been swapping a rookie score for a premium score. I could have had 23 premo scores for the year from that place in my team, instead of 22 premos and a rookie.]
Before I did these calcs, I was thinking that I'd definitely take Libba again if he was available in the same circumstances this year.
On the basis of the above, though, it looks like an absolute no-brainer.
Am I missing something?
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...-Defs-Mids-Fwds-Durability-vs-Higher-Ceilings
That's actually not a bad PIT average for a mid, it's just a handful of points outside what the 12th best mid has PIT averaged for the last four years (see the link below).
That only cost me $357k to start with, so I had around $200k of loose change to use from day one, relative to selecting someone who played 22 games at 103, and was priced fairly to start with (103 x $5,375 = $554k). The loose change is worth about 40 points per round, and I had most of that for the whole year.
I effectively used $60k of that loose change in upgrading to Sloane (giving up 12 points per round, making it a net of 40 - 12 = 28 per round, for 10 rounds). I obviously used a trade as well.
So the loose change was arguably worth about (40ppg x 13 games) + (28 x 10) = 800 points. From that I would deduct 150, the cost I place on a trade. So the whole arrangement netted me 650 points versus selecting someone at fair value ... which is absolutely massive, about 30ppg.
Perhaps not so concidentally, this is in the order of the discount I got on Libba.
Note that the calcs above assume I could have found a player guaranteed to play 22 up front, which obviously isn't necessarily the case.
The benefits of using Libba as a stepping stone to Sloane could also have been greater if Sloane didn't miss round 23. [I'd already got 22 scores out of the pair though, so I've treated the missed R23 as equivalent to the bye, with a rookie serving as a replacement. If Sloane had played R23, that would have effectively boosted my score during the byes by a bit more, as I would have been swapping a rookie score for a premium score. I could have had 23 premo scores for the year from that place in my team, instead of 22 premos and a rookie.]
Before I did these calcs, I was thinking that I'd definitely take Libba again if he was available in the same circumstances this year.
On the basis of the above, though, it looks like an absolute no-brainer.
Am I missing something?
http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...-Defs-Mids-Fwds-Durability-vs-Higher-Ceilings
Great Post. I wasn't considering JOM or Swallow this year but may reconsider now. However, one thing worth noting is the risk attached to a pick like Libba. Playing every game until R13 and averaging 98 was just about the best result you could hope for. It would be interesting to consider the PIT from starting with Brad Crouch, who only played 2 games for an average of 77.5 and no price increase. I think the chances of injury/missed games with these types is high, espeically JOM and Swallow who have missed so much footy.
Hey Rowsus, to what extent do you think JLT matches should be ignored? From what I've seen from most games, the teams seem to be playing at a pretty high intensity and almost close to the real thing. I think there's a bit of sentiment around here which suggests for the most part to take pre-season games very lightly, however I had a brief look at some 'breakouts' last year (e.g. Parker, Johanissen to an extent) and found that they had one or more great games in the NAB.
While Lumumba burns in the back of my mind (140SC in NAB 3), do you think that we should be taking the JLT more seriously? (Higgins, I'm looking at you)
While Lumumba burns in the back of my mind (140SC in NAB 3), do you think that we should be taking the JLT more seriously? (Higgins, I'm looking at you)
I think that's a fair point. I actually expected Libba to go at 100 or maybe a bit better, and he likely would have if he hadn't copped a knock in round six (he scored 70). The key as I see it is that he didn't miss (m)any games, which improved the PIT average of the Libba/Sloane combo, and, of course, accelerated his cash generation. Something to keep in mind if you're looking at a similar option this year.
- Joined
- 15 May 2012
- Messages
- 1,105
- Likes
- 529
- AFL Club
- North Melb.
Hi Rowsus, first question for the new season and hoping to draw on your Demons expertise as well as your statistical insights. I have room for a mid price POD in either the DEF or FWD line (or even both depending on how the rucks fall) and am having a very good look at both Salem and Petracca. I think they are both potential AFL stars in the making and am thinking that a combination of more experience, more time on the ball and the overall development of the Dees may translate into greater SC point scoring potential for both of them. In the high 300k area they both very much fit the bill of mid-price madness and fail all your tests for stepping stones etc. so I guess my question is do one or both of them have the potential to become a keeper this year. Thanks in advance !
- Joined
- 22 Jan 2013
- Messages
- 3,858
- Likes
- 1,652
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
im not sure on how to calculate scores to $ changes
so I'm asking what would the following players price be with the following av by rd 6 - 8 - 10 & Max Price with that average
David Swallow $280k av 90
Marc Murphy $430k av 100
Dayne Beams $430k av 105
Jager O'Mera av 95
Sandi av 95
Cheers in advance looking at being M5 through M8 with Danger, Parker, Treloar and Fyfe
so I'm asking what would the following players price be with the following av by rd 6 - 8 - 10 & Max Price with that average
David Swallow $280k av 90
Marc Murphy $430k av 100
Dayne Beams $430k av 105
Jager O'Mera av 95
Sandi av 95
Cheers in advance looking at being M5 through M8 with Danger, Parker, Treloar and Fyfe
Hey Slammer,
we're not really comparing apples with apples, if we are looking at Hibberd being gone affecting Hurley in some way.
Hibberd is 186cm and plays purely Flank/Wing. Hurley is 193cm and mixed between playing 3rd tall Def, general Def, and sometime Fwd switchman.
Keep in mind, Hurley's 95 average in 2015 came in a season that had unusually high scores for tall Defs (Rance, McDonald, even the likes of Roberton went historically high.). There seemed to be a correction of sorts in 2016, so who knows what happens this season? Hurley has played 7 seasons, and 119 games. He's only averaged above 86 once, and has never played a full season, averaging only 18 games/season in his last 5 seasons. Given all that, I'm prepared to label his 2015 peak as some sort of unlikely to be repeated spike, due to some anomaly for tall Defs that season.
Dodgy game count, questionable history, year off. It all adds up to too much risk for mine.
we're not really comparing apples with apples, if we are looking at Hibberd being gone affecting Hurley in some way.
Hibberd is 186cm and plays purely Flank/Wing. Hurley is 193cm and mixed between playing 3rd tall Def, general Def, and sometime Fwd switchman.
Keep in mind, Hurley's 95 average in 2015 came in a season that had unusually high scores for tall Defs (Rance, McDonald, even the likes of Roberton went historically high.). There seemed to be a correction of sorts in 2016, so who knows what happens this season? Hurley has played 7 seasons, and 119 games. He's only averaged above 86 once, and has never played a full season, averaging only 18 games/season in his last 5 seasons. Given all that, I'm prepared to label his 2015 peak as some sort of unlikely to be repeated spike, due to some anomaly for tall Defs that season.
Dodgy game count, questionable history, year off. It all adds up to too much risk for mine.
I'm of the opinion his scores are more goal driven, than possession driven. I'm not sure spending more time in the Midfield will reap the points bonus you are looking for. I think it will be swings and roundabouts, possibly, for Wingard, and he might score better if he just stayed up Forward. Historically, most of good scores contain 2+ goals, and his hot streak in 2015, where he averaged 104 between Rounds 7 & 22 had: 1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 5, 3, 3, 3, 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 2 (ave 2.8 goals) goals kicked in them.
- Status