Hi Rowsus,
Firstly, allow me to congratulate you on your teams bye round scores and climb up the leaders board. Impressive!
I have been looking at various aspects of my team and trying to analyse what I have done correctly and where I have failed.
I am a reasonably analytical person when it comes to decision making and attempt to balance averages/percentages/scores with observation, peer opinion and some gut feel. Somewhere in this mix, I am sure you will find the answer and correct decision. The key word is somewhere
Anyway, I have noticed one interesting fact about my team that I would like your thoughts on: players average scores.
I have been attempting to get as many players in my team that are averaging over 100 points per game for the season. I guessed, possibly incorrectly, that using this simple method should improve my team.
My team now has 19 players averaging 95+ points per game and 13 players averaging over 100+ points per game. Until now, i thought I was on the right track.
I do look at the players 3 game and 5 game averages, however, I have been placing most of the emphasis on the players season averages.
I am surprised, shocked and worried about what I have found.
At the start of Round 14 my team had the following:
19 players with a season average of 95+
13 players with a 5 round average of 95+
11 players with a 3 round average of 95+
13 players with a season average of 100+
10 players with a 5 round average of 100+
8 players with a 3 round average of 100+
I think I have just learned yet another lesson!
It appears my team is in a mid-season slump or possibly a slippery slide south!
What relevance do you place on these type of statistics?
Firstly, allow me to congratulate you on your teams bye round scores and climb up the leaders board. Impressive!
I have been looking at various aspects of my team and trying to analyse what I have done correctly and where I have failed.
I am a reasonably analytical person when it comes to decision making and attempt to balance averages/percentages/scores with observation, peer opinion and some gut feel. Somewhere in this mix, I am sure you will find the answer and correct decision. The key word is somewhere
Anyway, I have noticed one interesting fact about my team that I would like your thoughts on: players average scores.
I have been attempting to get as many players in my team that are averaging over 100 points per game for the season. I guessed, possibly incorrectly, that using this simple method should improve my team.
My team now has 19 players averaging 95+ points per game and 13 players averaging over 100+ points per game. Until now, i thought I was on the right track.
I do look at the players 3 game and 5 game averages, however, I have been placing most of the emphasis on the players season averages.
I am surprised, shocked and worried about what I have found.
At the start of Round 14 my team had the following:
19 players with a season average of 95+
13 players with a 5 round average of 95+
11 players with a 3 round average of 95+
13 players with a season average of 100+
10 players with a 5 round average of 100+
8 players with a 3 round average of 100+
I think I have just learned yet another lesson!
It appears my team is in a mid-season slump or possibly a slippery slide south!
What relevance do you place on these type of statistics?
you're actually doing very well, and learning very quickly, considering your relative inexperience at the game (as mentioned by yourself in another thread).
There is a double edged problem to your approach to trading. It doesn't allow for the reasonable expectation, that some players current form/average will possibly suddenly, and also probably dramatically, change direction.
Identifying which players are in a hot streak, that is unlikely to last, and which players are under scoring to what might reasonably be expected, is the key to better SC trading.
Look at a player Tex Walker. He was averaging 109 at the end of Round 5, and while I'm not suggesting you would have targeted him, someone using your approach might have. It fails to take into account, that those 4 games were comfortable or big wins, and Josh Jenkins was missing for all them (bar 5 minutes in Rnd 2). It seemed very unlikely that sort of scoring would continue. And it didn't.
Similarly, look at a player Kreuzer. He was only averaging 86 after Round 6, and anyone looking to only trade in players currently scoring 100+ couldn't/wouldnt consider trading him in. As it turns out he's averaged 139 since then! Getting on a cheap player before they explode can really give you a jump on those around you. Kreuzer was $418,400 after Round 6. How would you like a player averaging 139 since you traded him in, for that price? The problem is, you'll never experience that, if you are only targeting players averaging 100+. Kreuzer's average didn't hit 100+ until Round 10, and his price had risen to $525,400 by then. You missed out on a potential 498 points in those 4 games, and paid $107,000 more for him, just because you waited.
Now these are obviously just examples, but the main point is, avoiding the flavour of the month, that's about to start spudding it up, and getting on the fallen Prem, who's about to start rocketing, are the two best types of trades to avoid/target. Under the system of only targetting players that 100+, you will inevitably trade in some mistakes, and you'll end up using too many dollars, and miss getting some the bigger, better bargains.
Looking at the players averages in your team, is the wrong approach. You need to look at their averages since you traded them in. You can be sure there were quite a few people that traded Nankervis in, in Round 6. He's averaged 81.6 since then, but has a season average of 95.7. That season average means nothing to the poor souls he traded him in, in Round 6! He sits in your 95+ season players, but anyone expecting him to maintain that average is kidding themselves.
So to answer your bottom line question. The fact that you only have 8 players with a 3 Round average of 100+, and 10 with a 5 Round average of 100+, compared to 13 with a season average of 100+, should be ringing alarm bells, and have you identifying which players need fixing, once your team is complete.
Just for comparison. I only have 12 players with a season average of 100+. I have 13 players with a 5 Round average of 100+, and 11 players with a 3 Round average of 100+. Only 2 of my last 9 on field Keepers I traded in, are averaging under 100 since I traded them in.
