Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Slammer · 13 Jul 2017

How are ya Row,

Not sure why... but I resisted the temptation to trade last week and with Higgins and Wingard along with Parsons 98 replacing Greene , I came out ok with a respectable 2363.
Still tempted to downgrade parsons to FD and upgrade Newman to a premo mid like a Gibbs/Merrett or Zorko.
However with Parsons having a BE of 25 and if Scooter comes back I am thinking of holding again and hanging onto my 6 trades.
I guess I have several options. Would like to finish as high as I can with league win in the background. Currently sitting at 1186.
I am thinking with Scooters injury and his 105 BE , I may be best to get rid of him which would allow me to keep Adams/lloyd as swingmen for def/mid post and Newman at D6.
But it means getting rid of Parsons this week aswell to fund the premo mid. I may even look at bringing in a pod in S.Ross or I can just afford Zorko with a 102K FD in Sproule or Deilty

B: Rance, Doc, Laird, Lloyd, Newman, Hibberd (Perryman, Cox)
M: Danger, Rocky, Selwood, Murphy, Bont, Sloane, Pendles, ADAMS (Scooter, C.Brown, Witherden)
R: Kreuzer, Witts (Cameron)
F: Greene, Dahl, Macrae, Higgins, Wingard, Yeo (Greenwood, Parsons)

Any suggestions once again are much appreciated.

footyhead11 · 13 Jul 2017

Playing purely for league win now. Sitting in 1st, guaranteed top 4.

Trades: 5 (before rd 17 trades) Cash: 115k

B: Laird, Adams, Roberton, Lloyd, Shaw, Hibberd (Perryman, McNiece)
M: Dangerfield, T Mitchell, Pendlebury, Cripps, Hannebery, Treloar, Shuey, Greenwood (Scooter, Witherden, Cousins)
R: S Martin, Ryder (Strndica)
F: Yeo, Macrae, Dahlhaus, Franklin, Higgins, Heeney (Parsons, Bolton)

I am really stuck here.

Cripps > Jelwood is the obvious one but I was really planning to trade a scooter for a bike next week with the $115k.

What are your thoughts on some of the fallen premos like Rockliff, Sloan etc for Cripps? I do not want to go near Fyfe.

Monya Meow Meow · 13 Jul 2017

Hi Row, I need a final player to complete my mids and the ones that I am interested in are Fyfe and Selwood.
Who do you think will score higher from here on in assuming they both play the same number of games and don't miss anymore (fingers crossed).
Newman will be used to trade to one of them with Lloyd swinging down back.
Thanks!

footyhead11 · 13 Jul 2017

I would go for Jelwood over Fyfe. Ownership will end up about the same but Jelwood has been pretty good all season, Fyfe has been garbage with the exception of last weekend. I'm thinking the score is an outlier and he is cooked this year, similar to Bont's 135+ a few weeks ago..

Rowsus · 13 Jul 2017

Slammer said:

I'm good thanks, Slam. I hope you are too:

Game orders:
Sproule - GWS - 5, 7, 3, 2, 1, 4 - Rnd 23 v Geel - should be Saturday
Keilty - Melb - 3, 2, 2, 5, 8, 8 - Rnd 23 v Bris - who knows?
Ueber - Freo - 9, 6, 3, 2, 6, 9 - Rnd 23 v Ess - should be Sunday.

I know Uebergang costs $15k more, but it might be better to pay it to have those late games for loopholing.

With Scooter selected this week, I hold onto him as a useful M9, that even has potential loophole value for you.

Even if his B/E is lowish, Parsons is only one game away from making you regret you held him. I'd be thinking Parsons to Uebergang, then Newman/Hibberd/Adams to the Mid of your choice.
Good luck

Slammer · 13 Jul 2017

Rowsus said:

Thanks mate
You highlighted the same decision I am trying to make aswell ..which one out of Newman/Hibberd/Adams??
Then I have narrowed it down to Merrett/Zorko/Mitchell or PODS in Duncan/Ross/Gibbs
Leaniing towards Newman and Merrett but haven't ruled out Hibberd and Ross

Rowsus · 14 Jul 2017

footyhead11 said:

I'd be tempted to just do Cripps to Selwood this week. If your League is important to you, 4 trades is a good number to take into the finals, and it would also give you $165k in the bank, which makes those trades even more potent. Burning a trade on Scooter now might end up looking like a luxury trade, once the finals start. I'd certainly be holding off on the Rocky and Sloane types, and waiting for some sort of indication they are back, rather than speculating this far out from the finals.
If the trade is burning a hole in your pocket, and you just have to pull the trigger this week, I'd be going Scooter to Parker. He's got a pretty good history of holding his form, once he hits it, and he's been pretty consistent the last 5 weeks.
Good luck

Rowsus · 14 Jul 2017

Monya Meow Meow said:

footyhead11 said:

Hi MMM,
while Fyfe looked like the 2015 version of Fyfe last week, as fh11 mentioned, it is just one game. They are reporting that his sternum injury was affecting him more than we realised, but to me, it's still a matter of trust, to be trading him in. I have both him and Selwood, but if I was trading one in this week, it would definitely be Selwood over Fyfe. Selwood's form is more solid over a period of time, this season.

Rowsus · 14 Jul 2017

Slammer said:

I think trust your first instinct, and go Newman and Merrett.

Imcjb · 15 Jul 2017

Rowsus,

Hope you are well....are you still residing in NO?

Currently my team is:

B: Docherty, Laird, Lloyd, Tuohy, Newman, Hibberd (Smith, Ryan)
M: Danger, Mitchell, Neale, Merrett, Pendles, JPK, Treloar, Jelwood (Witherden, Fisher, Cousins)
R: Gawn, Martin (Strn)
F: Yeo, Macrae, Dahl, Nank, Heeney, Greenwood (Parsons, Eddy)

Given I spent too much time dilly-dallying over trading in Hurley tonight, I'm pretty set on him next week for Newman. I think Tuohy is my biggest negative POD moving forward.

If I was trading Tuohy out this week (I have 9 trades left with 90k), where would you rank Adams, Roberton and Simpson as my options. Do you think Simpson will score more with Cripps out?

Thanks for your input mate.

Rowsus · 15 Jul 2017

Imcjb said:

lmcjb,
I'm well thanks, and I hope you are too. I've been living in Denmark for 7 years now.
There's no point in "rating" Roberton, as you can't trade him in this week anyway. Just as a note, I'm a bit cautious about him reverting to his old scoring patterns.
I don't think Cripps being out will have any effect on Simpson's scoring. I'm a bit wary on Adams, though if we were confident everything was ok there, he'd easily be the first pick. It's a pity you're just short of going to TMcD in one trade, he'd be my first pick. Because of the cloud over Adams' head, and Roberton having already played, I'd go Simpson.

Juzzo · 15 Jul 2017

A mathematical question for you Rowsus.

What are the odds someone has the exact same supercoach team as your own?

Rowsus · 16 Jul 2017

Juzzo said:

By my calculations, somewhere between:

7 x 10^22 and 2 x 10^20

Herbie66 · 17 Jul 2017

Rowsus said:

Hi Herbie,
thanks for the good words. Given my unusual team, and so few trades left, I will be happy to finish top 1,000. I guess if enough of my POD's fire, and I don't have too much more carnage, I might push to top 500.
You've been unlucky with your POD Captain choices, but stay brave. If you're aiming for a weekly, it's exactly the right move to make!
I'm not sure I like Cripps to Devon Smith. Yes, he scored a 170 in 2015. but he seems very unlikely to repeat that, especially if/when Greene is back. I think I'd hang onto Jones, as he's only in 8% of teams, and the more POD's you can attack with, the better. I think I'd trade out Cripps, and one of Bont, Dahl or Nank. The 3 of them are far too popular for how poorly they are performing. You want popular players performing poorly, but not in your team. I'd definitely keep Waite, and I'd be looking to get him in your VC/C looping, as we know he can tear out big scores!

Here's part of what I wrote to Connoisseur, when he asked a similar question last week.

"I'd then be looking for players with known high ceilings, even if they hit them infrequently, that have less than 10% ownership. Players like: Fwds - Walters, Patton, Westhoff, Patton, Jenkins, Dixon, Cameron, NRoo (if we knew he was ok). Mids - Steven, Gray, Sidebottom, Cripps, Parker, Zorko.
You also need to be taking risky Captain picks, and hope the popular picks fail."

Given you're not holding a lot of cash, choose from the players you can afford in that list, and try and get 2 of them. It will give your team more separation, and that's what you need, to be a chance at a weekly. Not having Danger and Doch might actually work in your favour, as you're aiming at the one or two weeks, where they perform like mortals!

Good luck.

Thanks Rowsus

I managed to score 2,316 this week which is my second highest score

so pretty happy.

the Cripps to Westhoff trade paid off (this week at least), I held off on doing Dahl to Walters but will re-assess that.

chels · 18 Jul 2017

morning Rowsus,
Morning our time that is. I recall you have been good enough to share SC score stats on dichotomous variables such as home / away games. Have you, or have you seen, stats from a variable I am thinking about which is opposing team is high ranked v low ranked? The ranking could be top 8 v outside the 8. Or could be highly ranked defence (attack) v lowly ranked defence (attack). I am casting the net wide at the moment.

The idea is this - do the SC scores of better defenders (forwards) vary when playing better teams compared to worse teams? For example, does Buddy score better against strong defences or week defences, or do the data show there no difference? Or does Rance score better against strong attacks or weak attacks, or do the data show there no difference? Prima facie, I thought better players score well against worse opponents. But is that true? Are better players better because they score better against stronger opponents, or against all opponents? I hope I have expressed this clearly.

Sites like HPN (https://hurlingpeoplenow.wordpress.com/) have some terrific insights at the club level but I think I am looking for stats (or intuition) at the aggregate level of position (e.g., defenders / forwards). I am not implying that midfielders or rucks perform equally against all opponents just using D and F as an easy shorthand for "opponents."

I hope you find that an interesting question.

JT23 · 18 Jul 2017

Hi Row

I know this question has been asked a few times over the years, but it might be time to pull the modelling out and have a stab at what it would take for a Dangerfield Trade to be considered a success with 6 weeks of the season remaining. I know he played through the foot on the weekend but IMHO getting an injury in the middle of a game and then forcing yourself to stand up and play through it is very different to the club taking a conservative approach on bone bruising of the foot, and missing a week now (given short turn around for Fri night match) and possibly another somewhere before finals if still really sore (acknowledging there is a BYE after rd23) or just a few more games at FF on a more seasoned opponent than Heatherley could see his scores at the very least drop off a little.

If we work on a PIT 85 (given people will tend to have better coverage at this time of the year - although if Pendles also misses this might need to be re-classified down) and him missing one game and averaging 115 in his final 5 rounds, and compare that to trading him to Dustin Martin (or another premium) for example and pocketing the $200 - $270K that you can get for that "sideways" trade, how should we work out what the traded in players need to do to match or outperform that of Danger?

It also might allow people to get that 7th Defender or Forward and create a loophole opportunity which potentially means the value of a player who averages 95 in those positions becomes 100 or 105 if you can pull off well organised loopholes.

I think this could be one of the rare times that we should really consider "selling high" becasue he has been absolutely unstoppable so far this year, but trying to kick on that left foot on the weekend was almost imposible (hobbled around after trying and kick went no-where), which will impact him immediately, his price is simply huge and he looks like missing at least one of the final 6 rounds.

Cheers

Rowsus · 19 Jul 2017

chels said:

morning chels,
unfortunately it's not something I have a direct data base on.
I can tell you, for the most part, it varies from player to player, and team to team. As an off the cuff example, Enright at the peak of his powers scored higher in wins, than losses (eg 2015 wins 11 @ 101, losses 10 @ 90), where as Heath Shaw generally scored better in losses than wins, when he was the top Def (2015 wins 11 @ 102, losses 11 @ 124). To a certain extent, they are similar players, in similar-ish roles. Obviously for Forwards it follows that most of them score better against weaker opposition than stronger, as their teams usually kick more goals against the weak sides.
A lot can depend on the current trend in game style. This year we have seen tagging make a slow creep back into the game, after slowly slipping out of it for a while. When tagging was in vogue, we had an unusual situation where the top Mids quite often scored worse against some of the lower sides, as the lower sides were more intent on stopping/tagging those players. When playing against other top sides it was quite often just head to head, and we'll back our players to beat yours, leading to some of the better Mids scoring better against the good teams, than the lower teams. As an example, and from memory, Ablett at his peak was poorish against St Kilda, but good against Hawthorn.
As I first pointed out, it will vary player to player, and club to club. Unfortunately, I don't think there is a distinct trend I can point to, that will help identify a useful pattern to look for.

It is an interesting question, and I wish I had a better data base to delve deeper into it for you.

Rowsus · 19 Jul 2017

JT23 said:

Hi JT,
timing, and individual situations is everything. For most, who have a full team, and very few trades left, it's just not an option to be considered....... this week.
At $783,700 and a B/E of 161, he is sitting right on the edge of the perfect scenario to pull this move, if it was earlier in the season, and we had more trades left. The perfect scenario is for the player to be at least 18-20+ points overpriced, and be facing a B/E that is hopefully at least 50-60% higher than what you might expect them to score from here on in. Dangerfield is priced at 156, where most (reasonable) people probably have an expectation that he'll score (prior to the weekends injury) 130-135. That puts him at 21-26 overpriced, but his B/E is only 25% over his expected scoring. I guess given how late it is in the season, we are looking at a scenario, where we are not leaving the door open on trading him back in. That means the B/E part of the equation isn't as important.
Trading Danger gives you a bank of $170-$240k, which really could make a difference to most people's teams. Depending on who you don't have, that you can trade him for, it's likely to drop your projected score (off your own projections, not SC Gold's) by anywhere from 15-30 points, so the questions you need to ask yourself are these:
If I do it this week, how much am I expecting to Danger to be affected by his bone bruising?
Do I have 2 players, without Danger, that I am confident I can find a decent Captain's score each week?
How much improvement in my score, am I expecting/hoping to get from the big wad of cash?
Right now, the biggest problem is the first question. He could come out and look unaffected (unlikely in my opinion), or he could fall in a hole early in the game, and ride the pine for most of the game for a 25. The in-between option obviously is, it affects him, and he scores somewhere in the 80-110 area the next 2 or 3 weeks. It would be great to have an extra week to look at him, but I think, those with trades (4-5+) in hand, that are seriously considering doing it, should do it this week! If it was mid-season, and I still had a chunk of my trades left, I am pretty sure I would trade him out this week. I also think anyone with 5 or 6 trades left, that is struggling for cash to fill those last 2 or 3 spots should also be looking at this. You can easily turn Danger and a slow-burning Rookie into 2 Prems.
If I was placed higher up in the rankings, and I was really looking for a way to separate my team from those around me, I'd even consider the move as a type of hail mary. In this scenario, once again, it needs to be done this week, If he comes out and under performs to any level, there will be many jumping off him next week. Maybe even as many as 5% of Coaches, depending on how much he under performs by. By doing it this week, you get a jump on them, if he scores a "is he injured, or is he not" type 100, you might potentially have a 2 week jump on many that eventually decide to dump him.
Remember, if you are seriously considering the move, you need to think about the 3 questions above.

Slammer · 19 Jul 2017

Hey Rows,

Sadly, I didn't adhere to your last minute advice and select Merrett last week.
I dared to be different and decided to go with Zorko due to the less ownership.
It failed dismally and along with Rocky, Pendles and Sloane my midfield is struggling.
Wingard is helping out but I cannot expect that every week.
4 trades left and dropped in rankings to 1635. Disappointing but I have taken a different and riskier approach this year to try and get as high as I can ignoring league wins.
Want to hold trades but with Pendles unlikely to get back in two weeks let alone back to his scoring best and Rocky struggling. I feel I need to make another two trades.
Rocky I can see finishing early and being sent off for surgery on his shoulder before the season is out.
Was thinking Rocky/Pendles to Beams/Merrett or Fyfe/Ebert for something different.
Do you think Beams can get back to scoring well again? Have Zorko so didn't really want another Brisbane player? Fyfe may relax now his contract is done and come home strong. Ebert is risky but can go big with a good run home.

Eagling · 20 Jul 2017

Rowsus said:

This one is putting my head in circles. I probably have the capability to trade Danger out and even back in, but at a ranking of nearly 20k, I don't have much to play for. The second issue is if I do trade Dangerfield, do I trade Pendlebury as well; if I do that I'll have a $$$ surplus that I won't be able to use for another week. A third problem is that even if I did nail my extra premium selection and if Dangerfield did dip in form, I'd probably throw all those points away by benching the wrong premium. (For example, I trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Mountford to Martin, giving me a spare premium Mid). I then bench Beams over Rockliff. Rocky scores 60 and Beams scores 140...

For reference, I've got nine trades, $25,700 in the bank.

I've basically got 3 trading scenarios.

A: Trade Mountford to Selwood, and Greenwood to Nyhuis. Leaves me with about $97k, 7 trades, Beams M9, Witherden D7/M10, but poorish FWD bench options with Cox and Eddy.

B: Trade Pendlebury to Selwood, open up a Hibberd/Witheden D/M bench swing, and a Greenwood/Deluca M/F bench swing, leaving me with about $70k

C: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood

Ca: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Eddy to any under $499,900

Cb: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Mountford to anyone except Gibbs, Ablett and Tom Mitchell

Cc: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Pendlebury (or Greenwood) to anyone I want.

And D, of course, is do nothing.

Assuming I keep Greenwood, then I can put Greenwood at F7 with the E; if he scores well, then I can either swing Dahlhaus into the middle to run another loophole, or swing Nankervis into the ruck if Gawn goes poorly. Assuming Gawn and Greenwood score well, then I can loophole Dahlhaus into Witherden if I keep Pendlebury; else I will have to choose between Dahlhaus and Beams and Withderden, for example.

Out of the options presented, which one stands out as the best choice to you (of course, if you have a better idea, I'd love to hear it), and If I did trade Dangerfield, should I try to close out a POD - Merrett, Martin, etc, or open one up with a Blakely, Ross, etc gamble, or go for someone with a huge ceiling like Robbie Gray, or grab someone like Greene to shore up my forward line?

Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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footyhead11

Draftee

Monya Meow Meow

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Imcjb

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Juzzo

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Herbie66

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