Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[MC's Mix]

Hi Row,

This is (hopefully) my final question for the year! What is your opinion on trading Danger &/or Sloane this week, given their injury concerns and vastly different scoring patterns lately. I expect both to miss Friday night's game, and I'm in a position where I'm knocking on the door of the top 500 with 5 trades in hand. My team is complete with Nankervis on my forward bench covering fwd/ruck. I could theoretically trade Danger & Sloane to any midfield pair I desire, with about 150k cash left afterwards for injuries/luxuries. This would mean (most likely) that I'm without Danger for the remainder of the season. What do you think?


EDIT: Just saw your above response, sorry! I'll show myself out.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hi Rowsus

Do you have any views on Hurley?

Going for league and have a complete team except for Darcy at Ruck which I will upgrade round 20.

I do have Pendlebury and debating whether to trade him or push him to M9.

Bench is currently Luke Ryan/Mitch Hibberd - Witherden/Lloyd(GWS)/Cousin - Parson/Greenwood.

Have plenty of trades and cash, debating whether to bring Hurley as D7 (but will replace Hibberd (Melb)/Jake Lloyd(syd) or Roberton (saints) for onfield strength.

I can get Dusty in by round 20 to push Pendles (weakest mid) off field, upgrade ruck to Kreuzer but will come at cost of trading Luke Ryan, Greenwood, Parson and Witherden.

Will leave me with several trades (and $50k cash) and a playing bench of Michael Hibberd/Nyuis - Pendles/Hibberd (nth dpp)/Cousin - Deluca/Lewis Young. Have Nank/Ryder to swing to ruck if needed, however, any outs in fwd line/rucks would likely need a trade unless I had confidence in Lewis Young.

The alternative is to use Witherden as def cover and go for cover in mid/fwds.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rows,

Sadly, I didn't adhere to your last minute advice and select Merrett last week.
I dared to be different and decided to go with Zorko due to the less ownership.
It failed dismally and along with Rocky, Pendles and Sloane my midfield is struggling.
Wingard is helping out but I cannot expect that every week.
4 trades left and dropped in rankings to 1635. Disappointing but I have taken a different and riskier approach this year to try and get as high as I can ignoring league wins.
Want to hold trades but with Pendles unlikely to get back in two weeks let alone back to his scoring best and Rocky struggling. I feel I need to make another two trades.
Rocky I can see finishing early and being sent off for surgery on his shoulder before the season is out.
Was thinking Rocky/Pendles to Beams/Merrett or Fyfe/Ebert for something different.
Do you think Beams can get back to scoring well again? Have Zorko so didn't really want another Brisbane player? Fyfe may relax now his contract is done and come home strong. Ebert is risky but can go big with a good run home.

Hey Slams,
I'm not in love with either of those options. It seems like you are using 2 trades to turn Pendles into Merrett, or taking potentially compromised picks on both. If you are holding doubts on Rocky, and who wouldn't, then you should also have just as big a concern over Beams, so going Rocky to Beams to grab a little cash seems a bit wasteful.
If you have about $14k in the bank, you could go Pendles to Fyfe with 1 trade, and that is something I'd really consider, otherwise, just hold for now, and hope Zorko makes you glad you picked him this week.

 

[Rowsus]

This one is putting my head in circles. I probably have the capability to trade Danger out and even back in, but at a ranking of nearly 20k, I don't have much to play for. The second issue is if I do trade Dangerfield, do I trade Pendlebury as well; if I do that I'll have a $$$ surplus that I won't be able to use for another week. A third problem is that even if I did nail my extra premium selection and if Dangerfield did dip in form, I'd probably throw all those points away by benching the wrong premium. (For example, I trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Mountford to Martin, giving me a spare premium Mid). I then bench Beams over Rockliff. Rocky scores 60 and Beams scores 140...

For reference, I've got nine trades, $25,700 in the bank.

I've basically got 3 trading scenarios.

A: Trade Mountford to Selwood, and Greenwood to Nyhuis. Leaves me with about $97k, 7 trades, Beams M9, Witherden D7/M10, but poorish FWD bench options with Cox and Eddy.

B: Trade Pendlebury to Selwood, open up a Hibberd/Witheden D/M bench swing, and a Greenwood/Deluca M/F bench swing, leaving me with about $70k

C: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood

Ca: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Eddy to any under $499,900

Cb: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Mountford to anyone except Gibbs, Ablett and Tom Mitchell

Cc: Trade Dangerfield to Selwood and Pendlebury (or Greenwood) to anyone I want.

And D, of course, is do nothing.

Assuming I keep Greenwood, then I can put Greenwood at F7 with the E; if he scores well, then I can either swing Dahlhaus into the middle to run another loophole, or swing Nankervis into the ruck if Gawn goes poorly. Assuming Gawn and Greenwood score well, then I can loophole Dahlhaus into Witherden if I keep Pendlebury; else I will have to choose between Dahlhaus and Beams and Withderden, for example.


Out of the options presented, which one stands out as the best choice to you (of course, if you have a better idea, I'd love to hear it), and If I did trade Dangerfield, should I try to close out a POD - Merrett, Martin, etc, or open one up with a Blakely, Ross, etc gamble, or go for someone with a huge ceiling like Robbie Gray, or grab someone like Greene to shore up my forward line?

I think I'd be:
Dangerfield to Selwood, and Mountford to Merrett.
You expressed a concern about ending up with cash you didn't use this week. That is only a problem in the last round or two.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,

This is (hopefully) my final question for the year! What is your opinion on trading Danger &/or Sloane this week, given their injury concerns and vastly different scoring patterns lately. I expect both to miss Friday night's game, and I'm in a position where I'm knocking on the door of the top 500 with 5 trades in hand. My team is complete with Nankervis on my forward bench covering fwd/ruck. I could theoretically trade Danger & Sloane to any midfield pair I desire, with about 150k cash left afterwards for injuries/luxuries. This would mean (most likely) that I'm without Danger for the remainder of the season. What do you think?


EDIT: Just saw your above response, sorry! I'll show myself out.

Hi MC,
it has the potential to shift you dramatically in either direction, but if you want a chance to be top 200, you probably have to try something those around you aren't doing. I say go for it, if it turns out to be regrettable, you burn another trade or two getting Danger back in a week or two, but at least you rolled the dice on giving yourself the best shot at top 200.
Good luck.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

Do you have any views on Hurley?

Going for league and have a complete team except for Darcy at Ruck which I will upgrade round 20.

I do have Pendlebury and debating whether to trade him or push him to M9.

Bench is currently Luke Ryan/Mitch Hibberd - Witherden/Lloyd(GWS)/Cousin - Parson/Greenwood.

Have plenty of trades and cash, debating whether to bring Hurley as D7 (but will replace Hibberd (Melb)/Jake Lloyd(syd) or Roberton (saints) for onfield strength.

I can get Dusty in by round 20 to push Pendles (weakest mid) off field, upgrade ruck to Kreuzer but will come at cost of trading Luke Ryan, Greenwood, Parson and Witherden.

Will leave me with several trades (and $50k cash) and a playing bench of Michael Hibberd/Nyuis - Pendles/Hibberd (nth dpp)/Cousin - Deluca/Lewis Young. Have Nank/Ryder to swing to ruck if needed, however, any outs in fwd line/rucks would likely need a trade unless I had confidence in Lewis Young.

The alternative is to use Witherden as def cover and go for cover in mid/fwds.

Hi GFB,
keeping in mind, that your Ryder/Nank cover is only as good as your F7, you want a stronger Fwd bench than Deluca/Young.
I like Hurley as a pick, but also think the form Witherden is in, he is a suitable D7 cover, and I'd be doing something to strengthen your F7, so you might even be able to loop Nank or who ever in your Fwd line.
Apart from that, I'm pretty envious of your set up. Well done!

 

[Eagling]

I think I'd be:
Dangerfield to Selwood, and Mountford to Merrett.
You expressed a concern about ending up with cash you didn't use this week. That is only a problem in the last round or two.

Thanks Rowsus; I actually swung towards that idea separately over in the Trades thread a few minutes ago. Of course; I'll have to hold my nerve and actually go through with it.

As an extra question; if Dangerfield didn't have bone bruising, would there be a big change in the philosophy of trading him out?

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rowsus; I actually swung towards that idea separately over in the Trades thread a few minutes ago. Of course; I'll have to hold my nerve and actually go through with it.

As an extra question; if Dangerfield didn't have bone bruising, would there be a big change in the philosophy of trading him out?

Happy to help.
If he didn't have bone bruising I'd only be considering it in certain circumstances. If his B/E was a bit higher, it would be an easier decision, for sure. Just to clarify, your circumstances are one of the ones I think i'd be doing it, bone bruising or not.

 

[Eagling]

Happy to help.
If he didn't have bone bruising I'd only be considering it in certain circumstances. If his B/E was a bit higher, it would be an easier decision, for sure. Just to clarify, your circumstances are one of the ones I think i'd be doing it, bone bruising or not.

In the end I did take your advice but...

the trade didn't go through.

I had two windows open, one with Dangerfield to Selwood via DPP moves and the other with Pendlebury to Selwood via DPP moves. With about 10 seconds on the clock I pressed the Dangerfield > Selwood trade but it failed; the Pendlebury window was a couple of seconds behind so I tried that - to no avail. I ended up having the VC on Dangerfield so I'm glad I missed the trade; but disappointed to lose out on Selwood this week. This morning; I had a look at my team and decided to trade Hibberd and Eddy to Junker and Bayok; which, if Mountford increased by $900 this, meant that I should be able to grab Selwood with a Mountford and Cox trade to another bargain basement rookie next week. I believe that I calculated the sums correctly.

It also allowed me to loophole McDonald into Witherden, and I loopholed Mountford into Dahlhaus in the midfield, and had the Dangerfield trade gone through I would've grabbed Merrett, I'm mostly glad it didn't.

In the end I'll lose about $25k due to Selwood's price rise, but I'll be able to prune some of the dead wood from my side (Hibberd was out for the season; Eddy wasn't getting a game and Bayok offers a lot more flexibility in the run home. I'll have a bench of Witherden, $102k Rookie, Beams, Deluca, Junker, Cameron, Greenwood and Bayok from next week; which I reckon should hold me in decent stead for the rest of the season.

 

[GrainFedBeef]

Hi GFB,
keeping in mind, that your Ryder/Nank cover is only as good as your F7, you want a stronger Fwd bench than Deluca/Young.
I like Hurley as a pick, but also think the form Witherden is in, he is a suitable D7 cover, and I'd be doing something to strengthen your F7, so you might even be able to loop Nank or who ever in your Fwd line.
Apart from that, I'm pretty envious of your set up. Well done!

Took the advice and didnt bring in Hurley, thankfully.

Ryan to Sloane + Pendles to Dusty this week. Witherden and Greenwood bookend def and fwd.

Better balance. thanks Rowsus.

 

[Rowsus]

Took the advice and didnt bring in Hurley, thankfully.

Ryan to Sloane + Pendles to Dusty this week. Witherden and Greenwood bookend def and fwd.

Better balance. thanks Rowsus.

WOW!
That's some A-grade trading, right there, GFB. Well done!
Now you just need to turn Parsons into someone like Ridley (Ess), so you can loophole Nank/Greenwood through F6/7.

 

[Slammer]

Hi Rows,

Thought I would get in early this week as what could be my final query for you.
Then I can leave you in peace �� and not bother you again this season.
Scored well this week with a 2462. Best score for the year and pushed me closer to my goal in the top 1000.
However in doing so I copped it big time in which I will now lose Greene (2), Zorko (1) and Wingard (2/3) weeks to suspension and injury respectively.
No cash and only two trades left I am left with two choices I guess.
Use both trades or hold.
Option 1 - No trades , play Scooter or Witherden for Zorko
Play Freo's Cox if he plays this week at F6 and Greenwood at F5
Would mean I could field a team just but good score highly unlikely and drop in rankings
Option 2 - Throw it all out there and trade both Greene and Wingard
Greene/Wingard to Ryder/JJK which would give me Ruck coverage back for Witts/Kreuzer
Option 3 - One trade Wingard/Greene to Heeney , leave one trade left for another injury

Unsure on this one. Part of me wants to be conservative and go option 1 , hoping Wingard can get back in two.
However seeing him on crutches and moon boot today is a worry. Even if he gets back he may not get back to his best.
Tough call

 

[Tamuhawk]

Hi Rowsus.

Sick and tired of my underperforming team over the last 3 weeks ever since bringing Rocky in and considering using my last 2 trades this week. Which would be the better option in your opinion?

With $193k in the bank.

OPTION A
Pendles to Sloane & Newman to Dusty (via Withers to D6).
Ryan becomes D7.

OPTION B
Pendles to Sloane & Ryan to Beams (via Withers to D6).
Newman becomes D7.

OPTION C
Pendles to Dusty & Newman to Hibberd. Keeps DPP link with Hibberd/Withers. Downside is contnue to play Rocky at M8.

OPTION D
Just Pendles to Dusty, keep Rocky M8 & Loop Withers/Newman/Ryan at D6. 1 trade left in hand.

 

[Bomber18]

Hi Rowsus,

Congrats on your season so far, hope it continues into league finals (just not in the Mod league )

A general question re replacements for Pendlebury. I only have 50k so I need to find a replacement mid (or other player) under 547k.

The guys that are must haves that I don't have are Titch and Dusty but they are well out of my range. Neale seems to be the obvious choice at 530k. I am also considering Gawn at 455k through DPP (but concerned about his injury scare). Sloane an option too but he was never in my consideration before his big 170 and I'm wary of chasing "last weeks points".

Do you have any other smokies worth considering in that price bracket? Or am I better off grabbing Neale, seemingly a KISS pick?

Thanks!
B18

 

[Darkie]

Hi Rowsus - hopefully an easy one for you. I know you've done research previously on players' scores by age. Could you point me in the direction of that please?

Thanks,

Darkie

 

[DoggyODFL]

Hi Rowsus - hopefully an easy one for you. I know you've done research previously on players' scores by age. Could you point me in the direction of that please?

Thanks,

Darkie

I was searching for another one of Rowsus threads which I didn't find - however this may be what you want

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age

Rowsus - On my fruitless search - can you provide the link to the analysis/thread on which players maintained or increased the next seasons average after an increase in a seasons average by x points. Think Ablett and Swan met the criteria and Libba may have looked like doing it or achieved it

 

[Darkie]

I was searching for another one of Rowsus threads which I didn't find - however this may be what you want

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age

Rowsus - On my fruitless search - can you provide the link to the analysis/thread on which players maintained or increased the next seasons average after an increase in a seasons average by x points. Think Ablett and Swan met the criteria and Libba may have looked like doing it or achieved it

Thanks mate, I think that's the one!

 

[THCLT]

I was searching for another one of Rowsus threads which I didn't find - however this may be what you want

http://www.supercoachscores.com/threads/3288-100-Season-Players-Sorted-By-Age

Rowsus - On my fruitless search - can you provide the link to the analysis/thread on which players maintained or increased the next seasons average after an increase in a seasons average by x points. Think Ablett and Swan met the criteria and Libba may have looked like doing it or achieved it

Could the thread below be what you were looking for...?

2014 Chasing Last Year's Points...

 

[GrainFedBeef]

WOW!
That's some A-grade trading, right there, GFB. Well done!
Now you just need to turn Parsons into someone like Ridley (Ess), so you can loophole Nank/Greenwood through F6/7.

Parson became Deluca - now that he has lost his place he can help looping Greenwood/Nanks @ F6/7 (only R22 - bit of a stuff up).

Question for this week. Was planning on bringing Sloane in however after reading Geelong didnt heavily tag him, nervous whether he will still get those big scores.

Considering Dusty and Tom Mitchell instead for Pendles/Lloyd. This will push Fyfe/Treloar to M9 to be looped for now.

The catch - if I want Kreuzer next week, I will need to go Witherden to Glass next week. This means Mitchell comes in Fri night and subject to Glass ok, then Dusty comes in. If I push through with Dusty/Mitchell and choose to keep Witherden, then Darcy will need to be Stef Martin or Gawn.

With all these changes, will still have a handful of trade and $100k. Dont think I will get to bringing in a solid D7 but will be able to trade sideways if someone out in defence.

Going for league. Any thoughts once again appreciated Rowsus - thanks for taking the time last week.

Last 4 games of SC finals
Tom Mitchell - Richmond (prestia tag) then North, Carlton (Ed Curnow maybe still out) and Bulldogs who he should go well on.
Sloane - Port (Ebert?), Essendon (can restrict), Swans (maybe ok/restrictive), West Coast (Hutchings).
Dusty - Hawks (Howe?), Geelong (Selwood?), Fremantle and Saints (Seb). Dusty seems to handle tag the best.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rows,

Thought I would get in early this week as what could be my final query for you.
Then I can leave you in peace �� and not bother you again this season.
Scored well this week with a 2462. Best score for the year and pushed me closer to my goal in the top 1000.
However in doing so I copped it big time in which I will now lose Greene (2), Zorko (1) and Wingard (2/3) weeks to suspension and injury respectively.
No cash and only two trades left I am left with two choices I guess.
Use both trades or hold.
Option 1 - No trades , play Scooter or Witherden for Zorko
Play Freo's Cox if he plays this week at F6 and Greenwood at F5
Would mean I could field a team just but good score highly unlikely and drop in rankings
Option 2 - Throw it all out there and trade both Greene and Wingard
Greene/Wingard to Ryder/JJK which would give me Ruck coverage back for Witts/Kreuzer
Option 3 - One trade Wingard/Greene to Heeney , leave one trade left for another injury

Unsure on this one. Part of me wants to be conservative and go option 1 , hoping Wingard can get back in two.
However seeing him on crutches and moon boot today is a worry. Even if he gets back he may not get back to his best.
Tough call

Hi Slams,
well done on your good score last week!
I think you either go option 1, to guard against worse possibilities to come, or option 3, and go Wingard to Heeney. Option 3 probably gives you your best chance at your goal of a top 1,000 finish, and option 1 probably gives you the best chance of a total disaster, and dropping back to top 5-6,000 when/if the sh1t hits the fan. I think give yourself every chance of achieving your goal, even at the risk of going backwards later on. Go option 3.