Hi Blaze,
the thing to keep in mind, is that you are generally not trying to start players in your Round 1 team, that you hope/expect to fill M7-8/F5-6/D5-6, unless you are getting them at a very good discount. For example, some might be really bullish on JO'M this year, and think he will be a 20/105 player this season, and are happy to start him with an expectation of him being their final finished team's M8. At his $315,800 that's ok. At Coniglio's $452,400 it is borderline questionable.
Let's look at some simple rounded off sums to compare the two, assuming we had them both pegged at 20/105. To be open about it, I have neither pegged at that:
20/105 becomes a PIT65 of 22/101.36, or round value $506,800.
O'Meara is priced below that value by $191,000 and Coniglio by $54,400. We can easily see, that there is a much better margin of error in O'Meara's favour. He is more likely to outstrip his value, and at least add some value, if he turns out to be a regrettable pick for any reason. I would like to re-iterate here, these are not my figures for these two, but just a working example.
There is, or should be, a margin of error in any expectation, and one of the things to keep in mind, is that the players that don't get in the area of your expectation are probably 80-90% chances to fall short of it, and only 10-20% chances of exceeding it. It's just the nature of the beast, unless you have consistently conservative expectations.
So if you were spending $452k with the expectation that Coniglio would be your finishing M8, but a sneaky hope he might be your M5/6, then you are probably better off not getting him. With the margin of error generally slanted towards the negative, if things don't go to plan you have a player that has neither scored enough points, nor had any appreciable growth in value. If your honest opinion is, that he'll be a good chance to be your M6 or better, then get him, otherwise I think you'd be better to target a F4 or D4 type with that money.
You say that Smith and Barlow are unlikely to reach an unattainable price, but unless Coniglio does something out of the box, he's unlikely to be unattainable either. It really is as simple as, if you think Coniglio is even a 40% or 50% chance to become unattainable, then we shouldn't even discuss it, you should be starting him. Let's call high $500k's unattainable, say $580k. If he reaches that in the first 8 or 10 games, it means that he has scored at around 125-130. I would question the sanity of chasing him if he has done that anyway! I'm a great believer in an "adjusted return to the mean". Let's say you thought he'd be 20/108 at the start of the season, and he started 8/125. Let's look at an adjusted expectation.
20 x 108 = 2,160. minus 8 x 125 = 1,000 leaves him 12 games to score 1160.
We now have more information on him, and adjust our expectation up to 21/112
(I am planning a thread that explains the proper way to adjust your expectations!)
We bumped the games up to 21 from 20, as he hasn't missed a game, and we added 4 to his average, as he has outstripped his expected better scores so far.
We now have 21 x 112 = 2,352. minus 8 x 125 = 1,000 leaves him 13 games to score 1,352.
That's an adjusted expectation of 13/104 from Round 9 on, and you are crazy to pay $580k if that's your expectation!
Basically at his current price, he will in all likelihood fall into 1 of 2 catagories:
Glad I didn't start him.
Or
I wish I started him, and good luck to those that did, but it's best to forget him now.
The best way to decide between the 3 of them, is to set a (tight) range of expectations for all 3. The one whose expectation furthest removes them from being what you think your M8/F6 will look like this season is probably the one to start.
The expectations you set now will alter as you look at the JLT games, but I would generally warn against changing them too much based on those games!
the thing to keep in mind, is that you are generally not trying to start players in your Round 1 team, that you hope/expect to fill M7-8/F5-6/D5-6, unless you are getting them at a very good discount. For example, some might be really bullish on JO'M this year, and think he will be a 20/105 player this season, and are happy to start him with an expectation of him being their final finished team's M8. At his $315,800 that's ok. At Coniglio's $452,400 it is borderline questionable.
Let's look at some simple rounded off sums to compare the two, assuming we had them both pegged at 20/105. To be open about it, I have neither pegged at that:
20/105 becomes a PIT65 of 22/101.36, or round value $506,800.
O'Meara is priced below that value by $191,000 and Coniglio by $54,400. We can easily see, that there is a much better margin of error in O'Meara's favour. He is more likely to outstrip his value, and at least add some value, if he turns out to be a regrettable pick for any reason. I would like to re-iterate here, these are not my figures for these two, but just a working example.
There is, or should be, a margin of error in any expectation, and one of the things to keep in mind, is that the players that don't get in the area of your expectation are probably 80-90% chances to fall short of it, and only 10-20% chances of exceeding it. It's just the nature of the beast, unless you have consistently conservative expectations.
So if you were spending $452k with the expectation that Coniglio would be your finishing M8, but a sneaky hope he might be your M5/6, then you are probably better off not getting him. With the margin of error generally slanted towards the negative, if things don't go to plan you have a player that has neither scored enough points, nor had any appreciable growth in value. If your honest opinion is, that he'll be a good chance to be your M6 or better, then get him, otherwise I think you'd be better to target a F4 or D4 type with that money.
You say that Smith and Barlow are unlikely to reach an unattainable price, but unless Coniglio does something out of the box, he's unlikely to be unattainable either. It really is as simple as, if you think Coniglio is even a 40% or 50% chance to become unattainable, then we shouldn't even discuss it, you should be starting him. Let's call high $500k's unattainable, say $580k. If he reaches that in the first 8 or 10 games, it means that he has scored at around 125-130. I would question the sanity of chasing him if he has done that anyway! I'm a great believer in an "adjusted return to the mean". Let's say you thought he'd be 20/108 at the start of the season, and he started 8/125. Let's look at an adjusted expectation.
20 x 108 = 2,160. minus 8 x 125 = 1,000 leaves him 12 games to score 1160.
We now have more information on him, and adjust our expectation up to 21/112
(I am planning a thread that explains the proper way to adjust your expectations!)
We bumped the games up to 21 from 20, as he hasn't missed a game, and we added 4 to his average, as he has outstripped his expected better scores so far.
We now have 21 x 112 = 2,352. minus 8 x 125 = 1,000 leaves him 13 games to score 1,352.
That's an adjusted expectation of 13/104 from Round 9 on, and you are crazy to pay $580k if that's your expectation!
Basically at his current price, he will in all likelihood fall into 1 of 2 catagories:
Glad I didn't start him.
Or
I wish I started him, and good luck to those that did, but it's best to forget him now.
The best way to decide between the 3 of them, is to set a (tight) range of expectations for all 3. The one whose expectation furthest removes them from being what you think your M8/F6 will look like this season is probably the one to start.
The expectations you set now will alter as you look at the JLT games, but I would generally warn against changing them too much based on those games!
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