Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Rowsus

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Thanks Rows. I had Cripps and JOM but still not sure. Cripps ownership puts me off and the loss of Gibbs may hurt.
Taking a different approach this year and trying to be more selective in mids and not go with masses.

I have just another couple of queries. Apologies for bombarding you.
Sloane is an interesting one. I am looking at him but do you think Gibbs addition will hinder or hurt scores??
He is a bit like Duncan. The addition of Ablett may affect his scores but also may not.

The other question is are you running with many high end rookies?
I can only really see Brayshaw and maybe Naughton as any that may go ok.
However I cannot remember how you do all the calcs but I would believe they are a risk at their price. In particular Brayshaw who may get squeezed out of that midfield.
Is your intention to keep $100K up your sleeve for a rookie or two that we must have after Rd 2?
Eg. Leave Brayshaw out initially and if he fires then maybe bring him
Always happy to help, Slammer.
I don't see Gibbs adversely affecting Sloane, in fact, my Captaincy strategy has been Sloane/Martin/Titch for quite awhile now (I haven't had Danger in my team).
I will be having 2 or 3 of the more expensive Rookies, though I haven't locked in which ones yet. The way to do the calcs is to divide the price difference by 5000. So in the case of Banfield ($123,400) and Brayshaw ($198,300), then 198,300 - 123,400 = 74,900 / 5000 = 15. So Brayshaw needs to outscore Banfield by 15 to be considered a better pick, in terms of cash generation.
I won't be going out of my way to keep money up my sleeve, but I won't be spending for the sake of spending either.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus.

Any thoughts on Lewis Taylor. Do you believe he can step up to 95 - 100 average?

He has put up two handy JLT scores and I am looking for a POD around his price

I have it in my head that last preseason you had some interest in him
Hi Mudflap,
I think you need to water down those JLT matches, as Brisbane weren't anywhere near full strength in either. I also think Brisbane, and as a flow on, Taylor, won't kick enough goals to get him up into the area required. He's not for me.
 
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Hi bender, I'm good thanks, I hope you are too.
The 220th player this year is AMT priced at $405,600.
Below him in price you have:
JOM, Sicily, Armitage, who all seem obvious, and probably get picked anyway.
I'd be looking at late picks on players like:
Hogan, Harmes, J Kolodjashnij and J Thomas.
Good luck.
Thanks mate. A couple of those are FA's so I may look at grabbing them once teams drop
 
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Always happy to help, Slammer.
I don't see Gibbs adversely affecting Sloane, in fact, my Captaincy strategy has been Sloane/Martin/Titch for quite awhile now (I haven't had Danger in my team).
I will be having 2 or 3 of the more expensive Rookies, though I haven't locked in which ones yet. The way to do the calcs is to divide the price difference by 5000. So in the case of Banfield ($123,400) and Brayshaw ($198,300), then 198,300 - 123,400 = 74,900 / 5000 = 15. So Brayshaw needs to outscore Banfield by 15 to be considered a better pick, in terms of cash generation.
I won't be going out of my way to keep money up my sleeve, but I won't be spending for the sake of spending either.
Thanks heaps Rows.
Yeah I have Titch, Martin from Day 1 along with Sloane
It is the next one or two which is baffling me.
A lot are going with Fyfe which is understandable but I am still not convinced
 

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Just throwing a few left field options and would love to have a 2nd opinion, a short and sharp response will do...thanks!

DEF
J Kelly (ADE)
J Weitering (CAR)
T Stewart (GEE)
D Howard (PTA)

MID
A Hall (GCS)
J Steven (STK)

FWD
J Thomas (COL)
D MacPherson (GCS)
J Hogan (MEL)
J Trengrove (WBD)
 

Diabolical

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Just throwing a few left field options and would love to have a 2nd opinion, a short and sharp response will do...thanks!

DEF
J Kelly (ADE)
J Weitering (CAR)
T Stewart (GEE)
D Howard (PTA)

MID
A Hall (GCS)
J Steven (STK)

FWD
J Thomas (COL)
D MacPherson (GCS)
J Hogan (MEL)
J Trengrove (WBD)
Weitering has been in and out of my side at D4 ...
I want to start Hogan as he looks good value, and have considered turning Petracca into him if I need a small amount of cash.

I have them both in Doc Ron’s best 18 comp.

EDIT: sorry, just realised which thread I was in ... I’ll shut up now!!
 
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Hi Mudflap,
I think you need to water down those JLT matches, as Brisbane weren't anywhere near full strength in either. I also think Brisbane, and as a flow on, Taylor, won't kick enough goals to get him up into the area required. He's not for me.
Thanks Rowsus. Can I ask you about one more than I also think you had some interest in last year (or earlier)? Blake Acres..... any chance of him making a step up this year?
 

Rowsus

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Just throwing a few left field options and would love to have a 2nd opinion, a short and sharp response will do...thanks!

DEF
J Kelly (ADE)
J Weitering (CAR)
T Stewart (GEE)
D Howard (PTA)

MID
A Hall (GCS)
J Steven (STK)

FWD
J Thomas (COL)
D MacPherson (GCS)
J Hogan (MEL)
J Trengrove (WBD)
DEF
J Kelly (ADE) - 23yo, 5th year in system, 3rd year playing, means he should improve on last year, but hasn't shown us enough to risk him.
J Weitering (CAR) - Will be popular in doc ron's comp, but he'll play negating tall Def too often to be SC relevant.
T Stewart (GEE) - Was in my side for 3 days last week. I'm just not convinced he'll make top 10 in the PIT60 Defs this season.
D Howard (PTA) - 9 games in 2 seasons due to an ACL. JS problems? Still needs to develop his game further?

MID
A Hall (GCS) - Would love the JLT to be 4 games. If the new Coach has switched him on, he could be a brilliant pick!
THCLT - Ruled out of Rd1 with a broken thumb

J Steven (STK) - Nope. Had his 22/110 season, and I can't see him getting back there again.

FWD
J Thomas (COL) - He's one I want to take a risk one, but I can't see how to fit him in, and I'm worried about role when Wells/De Goey are back.
D MacPherson (GCS) - Hasn't shown me enough to pay his price. Could possibly be a Stepping Stone, but not for me.
J Hogan (MEL) - If you knew he'd consistently play up the field a bit more, then yes. We just don't know though. Chance to be a good POD.
J Trengrove (WBD) - You'd need a guarantee he played consistent Ruck time. Unfortunately, he looks like being a "go where he's needed man".
 
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Rowsus

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Weitering has been in and out of my side at D4 ...
I want to start Hogan as he looks good value, and have considered turning Petracca into him if I need a small amount of cash.

I have them both in Doc Ron’s best 18 comp.

EDIT: sorry, just realised which thread I was in ... I’ll shut up now!!
No, no, talk away! Any others you want to reveal?!

I think Weitering will be a popular pick in doc ron's comp. I know I have him.
 

Rowsus

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Thanks Rowsus. Can I ask you about one more than I also think you had some interest in last year (or earlier)? Blake Acres..... any chance of him making a step up this year?
Happy to help, Mudflap.
Acres didn't show me enough last season, and I think others have gone in front of him again now.
 
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Hi Rowsus - I hope you are well and looking forward to a big year from our Demons :)
Just a quick one - I'm interested in your thoughts on Angus Brayshaw for the D3/4 position in place of an expensive rookie. Awkward price, but could play a role. Thoughts ?
Cheers RB
 
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Hey Rows,

Thoughts on Sicily and Harmes and Tom Bell
Sicily seems to have great DE but his FA’s are the frustrating part.
You running with the majority?
Harmes I liked but would have been nice to see him play JLT 2
TBell for value maybe?
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus - I hope you are well and looking forward to a big year from our Demons :)
Just a quick one - I'm interested in your thoughts on Angus Brayshaw for the D3/4 position in place of an expensive rookie. Awkward price, but could play a role. Thoughts ?
Cheers RB
Hi Ricky Bobby, I'm well and I hope you are too. I'm quite bullish about our finals chances, but it really depends on two or three key guys not getting injured, and holding form.

Abad asked me about Petracca last week, and here is what I wrote:

I think the biggest hurdle ALL the young Melbourne players face, in SC terms, is there is just so many of them!
Established Mids: Oliver, Jones, Tyson, Lewis, Viney (when he's back)
Those looking to get a crack at it: Petracca, Neal-Bullen, Stretch, Brayshaw, Melksham, Harmes.
There will be games when all 11 play. That's slicing the pie pretty thin. Great for Melbourne, bad for SC Coaches. I actually think Harmes is really underated, and has the making of a good inside Mid. But, outside of potentially Oliver, can any of the others score at a good SC level, when there is just so many of them!
Now, obviously the requirements for a Def are lower, but throw in the probability that his game count will likely be compromised this season, and he's not one on whom I want to take a risk.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Rows,

Thoughts on Sicily and Harmes and Tom Bell
Sicily seems to have great DE but his FA’s are the frustrating part.
You running with the majority?
Harmes I liked but would have been nice to see him play JLT 2
TBell for value maybe?
Hey Slam,
Sicily is teetering on the edge of my team, and could easily drop off, depending on Rookie selections next week.
On Harmes, I think he exemplifies the case of people getting seduced by JLT scores. I thought Harme's efforts in JLT 1 were as good as Alex Neal-Bullen's, but everybody could only talk about ANB after the game. If I was taking one, it would be Harmes, but as stated in the post above to Ricky Bobby, Melbourne just have too many of these type of players to be risking one, imo.
Bell can look a million dollars, but he always finds a way to go back into his SC shell. Certainly opportunities exist at Brisbane this year, but he's not for me.
 

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Hey Row
Keen to get your thoughts on the concept of using a mid priced player as a cash cow, specifically Armitage v Brodie. I've seen people dismiss Armitage because he won't average 110 and become a keeper, but I'm wondering if an average of 90-95 is enough for him to be a decent selection as a cash cow. He's priced at an average of about 60 and will make about 200k if he averages 90-95. Compared to Brodie who is priced at about 40 and will make about 200k if he averages 70. Considering these cash increases are about the same, is Armitage the better selection because he will score more points during this cash generation process? Cheers
 

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Hey Row
Keen to get your thoughts on the concept of using a mid priced player as a cash cow, specifically Armitage v Brodie. I've seen people dismiss Armitage because he won't average 110 and become a keeper, but I'm wondering if an average of 90-95 is enough for him to be a decent selection as a cash cow. He's priced at an average of about 60 and will make about 200k if he averages 90-95. Compared to Brodie who is priced at about 40 and will make about 200k if he averages 70. Considering these cash increases are about the same, is Armitage the better selection because he will score more points during this cash generation process? Cheers
You're being overly optimistic with the scores required to make $200K. You might be interested in this thread to understand why http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...een-pleasure-and-pain?highlight=price+madness . You are right that points scored are an important aspect of cash cows/stepping stones, especially if they are going to generate the same amount of cash. I'll let Rowsus answer the rest of the question.
 
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Hi Row,

Long time fan of your thoughts and analysis, first time poster.

I see that you've all but locked Dusty into year team. It seems like most coaches on this site have not given it 2 thoughts, locked him away and thrown away the key.

Me? Well I was one of those coaches as well, until this week when I went somewhat cold on him; worried he will not justify the price tag or be able to replicate the 2017 season.

Was 2017 a spike season? I mean, I look at his 2016 season (108.1) and his 2015 season (105.5) and think, 'is this his established scoring pattern?'

More ammunition to support my outlandish claims:

- 2017 was the year of the Dusty, first player to win the treble (premiership, Brownlow and Norm Smith) and the added bonus of best player of the finals series. It was the most Brownlow votes polled ever I believe. Arguably the greatest individual season anyone has ever had and he only averaged 119.

- It was a contract year for him as well, in which he signed an enormous long term contract locking away his future. I don't have any sources, but players in their contract years tend to play better.

- The year was a premiership drought breaking year for Richmond and his partying ways are well documented in the media. I'm a Dogs supporter and we all know what happened there.

- Richmond have had 4 less weeks of preparation for this season than last.

Is it worth skipping on dusty with my fingers crossed that he might potentially start of slow, or am I overthinking it? Keen to get your thoughts.

Cheers.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Row
Keen to get your thoughts on the concept of using a mid priced player as a cash cow, specifically Armitage v Brodie. I've seen people dismiss Armitage because he won't average 110 and become a keeper, but I'm wondering if an average of 90-95 is enough for him to be a decent selection as a cash cow. He's priced at an average of about 60 and will make about 200k if he averages 90-95. Compared to Brodie who is priced at about 40 and will make about 200k if he averages 70. Considering these cash increases are about the same, is Armitage the better selection because he will score more points during this cash generation process? Cheers
You're being overly optimistic with the scores required to make $200K. You might be interested in this thread to understand why http://www.supercoachscores.com/thr...een-pleasure-and-pain?highlight=price+madness . You are right that points scored are an important aspect of cash cows/stepping stones, especially if they are going to generate the same amount of cash. I'll let Rowsus answer the rest of the question.
Hey Abad,
first of all, I recommend you follow the link KLo30 has provided to his most informative thread. It's an eye opener to most people, and well worth the read.
Having said that, let me first touch on your maths, as KLo30 also mentioned. For ease of using round numbers, multiply your expected player average by $5,000 to get what price he is heading towards. A 90-95 average has Armitage heading towards $450-$457k, which puts him on making $140-$165k, not $200k. To make $200k he needs to average something just over 102/game.
Can these Midprice players be useful Stepping Stones? No doubt.
Part of the problem is defining success, and Libba's comeback season was a good example. For some people he was a success, for some a breakeven, and for some he was a small loss. It might seem inconceivable that the one player fits all 3 descriptions, but it all comes down to how you structured up, and what you were aiming for.
It's possible to take Armitage, and have him average low 90's and call it a success, if all you wanted was points on the ground, and around $100k growth. As I mentioned, it all comes down to how you structure up. What/who did you sacrifice to have Armitage? If you had another Midpricer in your team, would you have been better chopping both of them to a Prem and a Rookie?
I'm generally against Stepping Stones in the Midfield. This area traditionally provides the largest part of both your points, and your cash generation. If you were seriously considering Armitage, my thoughts are, make your side without him, THEN, if you have the cash leftover, contemplate if you should swap him ahead of your least trusted Mid Rookie. Stepping Stones in the other lines are ok, but really hard to price properly. My general rule of thumb is, you want a Stepping Stone to make $100k, as well as give you safe on field points. That really restricts the price ranges you are looking at. Let's look at a Def Stepping Stone. You really want to avoid a trap selection. That's a player that scores just below the level of a Keeper, but close enough to being a Keeper, that you never end up fixing him. You'd be surprised how often, and easily this can happen. So let's say a borderline D6 is a 90/game player. Keep in mind, you don't want to end up with multiple bottom on field selections. ie Many people end up with 3 M8's at the end of the season, that are scoring at around 100/game, and they are leaking 10-20/Round to sides with genuine M6's and M7's. You definitely don't want 2 or 3 D6's. So if 90 is your bottom line D6, then you if you are picking a Def Stepping Stone, you need him to start at $300k or cheaper. Any more expensive than that, and he either has to score at a Keeper level, or he easily becomes a trap selection.
At $300k he needs to score in the low 80's to make you $100k for an easy upgrade.
At $350k, he needs to score low 90's to make your $100k, and bingo, he's a Keeper, or another D6, or a trap!
By all means use a Midpricer as a Stepping Stone, but price them properly, have a plan and reasonable expectations, and unless they blast beyond your expectations, stick to your plan!
As to "is Armitage a better pick than Brodie, if they make the same cash generation?". To generate the same amount of cash, Armitage has to outscore Brodie by 24/game. The question then becomes, how did you use the $120k leftover, if you chose Brodie? If you spent it just because it was there, and it didn't produce much benefit, or if the cash is just sitting there, then Armitage is better. If the $120k pushed say another Midpricer up to a good genuine Keeper, then Brodie is better. There are just too many scenarios to give a straight answer. It's just like I said with Libba, some yes, some maybe, some no. It all depends on structure and circumstances. Sorry, I can't be more definitive.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row,

Long time fan of your thoughts and analysis, first time poster.

I see that you've all but locked Dusty into year team. It seems like most coaches on this site have not given it 2 thoughts, locked him away and thrown away the key.

Me? Well I was one of those coaches as well, until this week when I went somewhat cold on him; worried he will not justify the price tag or be able to replicate the 2017 season.

Was 2017 a spike season? I mean, I look at his 2016 season (108.1) and his 2015 season (105.5) and think, 'is this his established scoring pattern?'

More ammunition to support my outlandish claims:

- 2017 was the year of the Dusty, first player to win the treble (premiership, Brownlow and Norm Smith) and the added bonus of best player of the finals series. It was the most Brownlow votes polled ever I believe. Arguably the greatest individual season anyone has ever had and he only averaged 119.

- It was a contract year for him as well, in which he signed an enormous long term contract locking away his future. I don't have any sources, but players in their contract years tend to play better.

- The year was a premiership drought breaking year for Richmond and his partying ways are well documented in the media. I'm a Dogs supporter and we all know what happened there.

- Richmond have had 4 less weeks of preparation for this season than last.

Is it worth skipping on dusty with my fingers crossed that he might potentially start of slow, or am I overthinking it? Keen to get your thoughts.

Cheers.
Hi string, thanks for the kind words, and welcome to posting.
I have a "simple" structure I use for team selection. The first part of the structure is: "Choose your Captain strategy, and the players required for it first".
I decided when the prices were first released, that I would be starting without Dangerfield this season. As you can imagine, I'm not happy that most people are being pushed off him now too. Anyway, my Captain strategy this year is: Sloane, Mitchell, Martin.
Why? It's pretty simple actually. Using 130 as a desirable VC score to lock in, and 105 as a "Oh well" fall back Captain score, I then looked at who scored the most 130+ scores in 2017:
15 Dangerfield
9 Sloane
8 Martin
(then followed Docherty, M Crouch, Kreuzer on 6)
I then looked at who scored the most 105+ scores in 2017:
19 Dangerfield
18 Mitchell
17 Martin
(then followed Oliver, Zorko and Adams on 15)
So once I decided to roll without Danger, I've got the 2 players most likely to give me a 130+ score, based on last years scoring, and the 2 players most likely to give me at least 105+ score, as a fall back Captain. Martin just happened to be in both categories.
He wasn't picked because I think he fits into some sort of SC description like: "It's, Danger, Martin ..... then daylight". It was just recent history, and my Captain strategy. Having said that, I'd still be tempted to start him, if he wasn't in my Captain strategy, because he scores so well at the MCG, and Richmond have a fairly favourable early draw.
It certainly could be worth skipping on him. He started 2017 slowly (159, 118, 155 - but then 54, 92, 93, 87), so there is nothing to say he won't do the same this year.
 
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Hi string, thanks for the kind words, and welcome to posting.
I have a "simple" structure I use for team selection. The first part of the structure is: "Choose your Captain strategy, and the players required for it first".
I decided when the prices were first released, that I would be starting without Dangerfield this season. As you can imagine, I'm not happy that most people are being pushed off him now too. Anyway, my Captain strategy this year is: Sloane, Mitchell, Martin.
Why? It's pretty simple actually. Using 130 as a desirable VC score to lock in, and 105 as a "Oh well" fall back Captain score, I then looked at who scored the most 130+ scores in 2017:
15 Dangerfield
9 Sloane
8 Martin
(then followed Docherty, M Crouch, Kreuzer on 6)
I then looked at who scored the most 105+ scores in 2017:
19 Dangerfield
18 Mitchell
17 Martin
(then followed Oliver, Zorko and Adams on 15)
So once I decided to roll without Danger, I've got the 2 players most likely to give me a 130+ score, based on last years scoring, and the 2 players most likely to give me at least 105+ score, as a fall back Captain. Martin just happened to be in both categories.
He wasn't picked because I think he fits into some sort of SC description like: "It's, Danger, Martin ..... then daylight". It was just recent history, and my Captain strategy. Having said that, I'd still be tempted to start him, if he wasn't in my Captain strategy, because he scores so well at the MCG, and Richmond have a fairly favourable early draw.
It certainly could be worth skipping on him. He started 2017 slowly (159, 118, 155 - but then 54, 92, 93, 87), so there is nothing to say he won't do the same this year.
I like your Captain Strategy.
But looking at Dangerfield's stats above, he's head and shoulders (and chest) above the rest. His stats seem too good not to have in the team, regardless of his starting price and missing Rd1, hmmm.
 
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