Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Bermi]

Hi Rowsus,
I don't know if there are enough stats/info for you to give me an answer.
My dilemma is that I can't split my 3 Mid Rookies to replace the injured Josh Kelly.
I don't want to trade the injured Josh Kelly out before I know how long he will be out for.
I think there may be some other Coaches in the same predicament.
I'm leaning to Davies-Uniacke, only because he is playing at home.
Any thoughts?
Thanks in advance.

MID
MID (FRE) FYFE, Nathan’91 *
MID (GEE) DANGERFIELD, Pat’90 ** *
MID (HAW) MITCHELL, Tom'93
MID (CAR) CRIPPS, Patrick’95 * *
MID (GWS) KELLY, Josh'95
MID (GWS) CONIGLIO, Stephen’93*
MID (GEE) KELLY, Tim'94 $231 700 Av 108 BE -69
MID (GCS) HOLMAN, Nick'95 $196 100 Av 90 BE -57
Mid Reserves
MID (NTH) DAVIES-UNIACKE, Luke'99 ** $194,900 Av 42 BE 16
MID (FRE) BRAYSHAW, Andrew'99 ** $213 600 Av 51 BE 33
MID (FRE) BANFIELD, Bailey'98 $172 900 Av 61 BE -30

 

[anfa18]

Hi again Row,

Josh Kelly appears to have a groin injury and will miss at least this week and possibly more. I feel like the right option may be to hold and accept rookie cover, however what are your thoughts on using his injury to trade in a forward/defensive keeper and save the spare 100k for Danger in the coming weeks? Walters/Gray/Ryan/Savage are on my radar at the moment.

Thanks for any input/ideas you can give.

 

[Rowsus]

Row,
Love your thoughts.

Roughead really struggling up forward. Options I have, in preference order:

1) Hold, he started to look solid last week on rance. 6 clangers killed his score! No trades used, hold Ryan to asses ZGL or Balta one more week. (Don’t love the options on bubble)
2) downgrade Ryan to playing rookie, Roughead to McLean/Heeney. 2 trades
3)downgrade Ryan to Balta (opens Ruck link with English and chance to play soon) Roughead up. 2 trades
4) rough to Curnow, sideways. 1 trade and hold Ryan to asses ZGL or Balta one more week.

lapp,
I thought he looked ok last week. He's only had 6+ Clangers in a game 6 times in 256 games, and has a career average of 2.2/game.
While I expect both McLean and Heeney to outscore him, I'm not sure they warrant 2 trades, and the cash involved.
It's a tough one, if he was mine, I'd be holding him, but I could understand you going to either one of those 2. At the price, and possibly fitting your bye structure, I'd probably go McLean, if you do pull the trigger.
Sideways to Curnow or Hogan is fraught with the prospect of regret. Just like those that went sideways on Hibberd last week, I think you want better than a 5/game improvement, and it's hard to be confident anyone in Roughie's price can do that.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
I don't know if there are enough stats/info for you to give me an answer.
My dilemma is that I can't split my 3 Mid Rookies to replace the injured Josh Kelly.
I don't want to trade the injured Josh Kelly out before I know how long he will be out for.
I think there may be some other Coaches in the same predicament.
I'm leaning to Davies-Uniacke, only because he is playing at home.
Any thoughts?
Thanks in advance.

MID
MID (FRE) FYFE, Nathan’91 *
MID (GEE) DANGERFIELD, Pat’90 ** *
MID (HAW) MITCHELL, Tom'93
MID (CAR) CRIPPS, Patrick’95 * *
MID (GWS) KELLY, Josh'95
MID (GWS) CONIGLIO, Stephen’93*
MID (GEE) KELLY, Tim'94 $231 700 Av 108 BE -69
MID (GCS) HOLMAN, Nick'95 $196 100 Av 90 BE -57
Mid Reserves
MID (NTH) DAVIES-UNIACKE, Luke'99 ** $194,900 Av 42 BE 16
MID (FRE) BRAYSHAW, Andrew'99 ** $213 600 Av 51 BE 33
MID (FRE) BANFIELD, Bailey'98 $172 900 Av 61 BE -30

Hi Bermi,
of those 3 I'd be putting Banfield on the field. Yes, he plays a negating role, but at least he's near the ball a lot, and has a better average than the other 2.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi again Row,

Josh Kelly appears to have a groin injury and will miss at least this week and possibly more. I feel like the right option may be to hold and accept rookie cover, however what are your thoughts on using his injury to trade in a forward/defensive keeper and save the spare 100k for Danger in the coming weeks? Walters/Gray/Ryan/Savage are on my radar at the moment.

Thanks for any input/ideas you can give.

Hi again anfa,
until we get more info, I think it would be absolutely crazy to trade Kelly.

 

[lappinitup]

Thanks - should make my decision easier, as if effectively is agree with my order of preferences.

Just so hard to sit and do nothing after 2 poor weeks from 3!

 

[TommyGobbler]

Hey Rowsus,

How long do we need to see solid scoring from blokes like Walters & Savage before considering them Top 6 prospects in their position/solid premiums?

Both guys are 27 years old and in their 10th season.

Savage highest previous average is 87 (2017). Prior to that, Savage's best was 82 in 2016.

Walters best was 88 in 2013. Next best was 2017, where he averaged 87.

Are there many examples of guys 'breaking out' in their 10th season at age 27, or are these 2 more likely to burn you?


Cheers

 

[Adrenaline]

Hi row

i hope your doing well

similar question to anfa. i have kelly as well. after reading sen report it seems that kelly will be injuried for more than a week despite what cameron has said. i agree that it is all speculation at this stage. in the past groin injuries have hampered a players output. if we use kruzer as an example, his scores have been 74 and 86 and we can also use robbie gray as another example. it also depends on the grade of the injury. in saying this kelly is a quality player and he doesnt have many down games.

i am playing for league wins, so my approach is to conserve trades. i dont have danger in my team. my plan was always to trade either cogs or cripps to danger however do you think its worth trading out kelly to danger?? gws have an easy run for the next three games so it wouldnt be surprising that kelly might miss the three games. if that is the case i would take a rookie score of approx 60 points which is 180 points. if i had danger in my team i think he can go 120-130 per game, which is a total of 360 in the next three weeks.

based on the above reasons would you still recommend to trade? at this stage i am 70-30 of keeping kelly in.

 

[Mr_Arrogance]

Hi Rowsus,

Love the work you are doing, especially the anatomy of a SC season.
Very late question and sorry for that but hope you have the chance for a quick reply.

I am a man who loves a bargain but by not having Titch, Dusty or Danger my plan was to trade Neale to Titch this week. However after reading your analysis I am questioning if I am overpaying for Titch and should be chasing the Hibberd/Yeo, Zerrett type guys to add to my side in the next couple of weeks rather than blowing all my cash on Titch.

Would love your thoughts

My goal is to win cash leagues this year

Cheers

 

[Bomber18]

Hey Rowsus,

No real urgency on this question as it's more to do with strategy going forward.

Would love your thoughts on Finlayson, Doedee and Murray this season. All serious SCers would have them in their sides so owning them doesn't change much in itself. The bigger differential in terms of strategy is in regards to the timing of when to jump off. Jumping off early and avoiding a poorer score can make a huge difference in ranking. But conversely, going too early and missing a ton can set you back.

The other part of the question is the upgrade target itself (with the focus only on defenders to keep this exercise simple). There hasn't really been any "bolter" in defence so far (perhaps Simmo or Ryan or maybe Savage, but people aren't really scrambling to bring them in). Even Yeo-yeo and Hibberd seem down on performances last year. So it seems the best defenders (outside of Laird) are more ~95 prospects.

So getting to the main questions:
-Who do you think out of Finlayson/Doedee/Murray has the best potential to be an 80-85 avg quasi-keeper? Could all do it? Or am I getting ahead of myself after their strong starts.
-And if Finalyson/Doedee/Murray are ticking along at 80-85 avg and the best def premiums are only going at 95, when is the best time to make that upgrade (as it's only adding 10-15 ppg)?

Appreciate that it's a difficult question but would like to hear your thoughts!

Cheers
B18

 

[Juzzo]

Does Bailey Williams interest you in any way Row?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

How long do we need to see solid scoring from blokes like Walters & Savage before considering them Top 6 prospects in their position/solid premiums?

Both guys are 27 years old and in their 10th season.

Savage highest previous average is 87 (2017). Prior to that, Savage's best was 82 in 2016.

Walters best was 88 in 2013. Next best was 2017, where he averaged 87.

Are there many examples of guys 'breaking out' in their 10th season at age 27, or are these 2 more likely to burn you?


Cheers

Hey TG,
I think I'd more confident about going to Savage, than Walters. Savage's team has had more of a "friendly" resructure, to open up the opportunities for him, with Montagna gone. Walters has had Rookies added to the best 22, that are getting Mid time.
Now, he thing with Savage is, you either need to take the plunge now/very soon, or not do it at all. He's started: 92, 97, 121. He's priced at 96/game. Look at the possible scenarios, as he's really at a crossroads, trade wise.
You wait, and he bangs off 2 or 3 good 110 type scores. Have you now missed the cream, and you are paying too much for him?
You wait, and he throws up similar to what he now, a couple of 90's and 110+. You are really none the wiser.
You wait, and he spuds it up. Phew! You dodged a bullet.
In those first 2 examples, you are actually sitting ok, if you jump on him now/soon. The last one means you made a mistake.
So there are more examples of you doing ok, by jumping on now, than waiting. My personal expectation is, he'll probably continue to look ok, and could be a reasonable pick, but I think his upside is about what he is priced at, around that 96 area,
The only true break out at that age, was when Leon Davis went nuts, and went from a career best 95, to 111 in 2009 at the age of 27.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi row

i hope your doing well

similar question to anfa. i have kelly as well. after reading sen report it seems that kelly will be injuried for more than a week despite what cameron has said. i agree that it is all speculation at this stage. in the past groin injuries have hampered a players output. if we use kruzer as an example, his scores have been 74 and 86 and we can also use robbie gray as another example. it also depends on the grade of the injury. in saying this kelly is a quality player and he doesnt have many down games.

i am playing for league wins, so my approach is to conserve trades. i dont have danger in my team. my plan was always to trade either cogs or cripps to danger however do you think its worth trading out kelly to danger?? gws have an easy run for the next three games so it wouldnt be surprising that kelly might miss the three games. if that is the case i would take a rookie score of approx 60 points which is 180 points. if i had danger in my team i think he can go 120-130 per game, which is a total of 360 in the next three weeks.

based on the above reasons would you still recommend to trade? at this stage i am 70-30 of keeping kelly in.

Hi Ad,
if I was playing with Leagues as my focus, I'd be inclined to to analyse my opponents in the next few weeks. If they look tough, go Kelly to Danger, otherwise, as you are well aware, for those with Leagues as their focus, trades at the end of the season mean everything!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Love the work you are doing, especially the anatomy of a SC season.
Very late question and sorry for that but hope you have the chance for a quick reply.

I am a man who loves a bargain but by not having Titch, Dusty or Danger my plan was to trade Neale to Titch this week. However after reading your analysis I am questioning if I am overpaying for Titch and should be chasing the Hibberd/Yeo, Zerrett type guys to add to my side in the next couple of weeks rather than blowing all my cash on Titch.

Would love your thoughts

My goal is to win cash leagues this year

Cheers

Hi Mr_A,
I too love value from my trades, and for the most part, Mitchell being priced at $687,400 doesn't represent value. That equates to 135/game, and I don't think that's a realistic goal.
Having said that, as you are missing all of the big 3, you may want to strengthen your VC/C options, and in those circumstances, I could understand someone paying overs to get Titch in.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

No real urgency on this question as it's more to do with strategy going forward.

Would love your thoughts on Finlayson, Doedee and Murray this season. All serious SCers would have them in their sides so owning them doesn't change much in itself. The bigger differential in terms of strategy is in regards to the timing of when to jump off. Jumping off early and avoiding a poorer score can make a huge difference in ranking. But conversely, going too early and missing a ton can set you back.

The other part of the question is the upgrade target itself (with the focus only on defenders to keep this exercise simple). There hasn't really been any "bolter" in defence so far (perhaps Simmo or Ryan or maybe Savage, but people aren't really scrambling to bring them in). Even Yeo-yeo and Hibberd seem down on performances last year. So it seems the best defenders (outside of Laird) are more ~95 prospects.

So getting to the main questions:
-Who do you think out of Finlayson/Doedee/Murray has the best potential to be an 80-85 avg quasi-keeper? Could all do it? Or am I getting ahead of myself after their strong starts.
-And if Finalyson/Doedee/Murray are ticking along at 80-85 avg and the best def premiums are only going at 95, when is the best time to make that upgrade (as it's only adding 10-15 ppg)?

Appreciate that it's a difficult question but would like to hear your thoughts!

Cheers
B18

Hey B18,
my order for quasi Keepers is Murray, Doedee, Finlayson. I just like Murrays run, and I can see him lifting a little. Doedee tends to play taller than his actual height, and in the long run, that may hamper his SC scoring a little.
The best time to make the upgrade would seem to be when one of your intended targets takes a bit of a dip in price, due to an injury score or whatever, so you can keep the cash component as low as possible. To that end, you should have a list of about 6-8 Defs you are happy to target, and jump when they bottom out. Yeo is an example, though it might have been better if his poor score happened in Round 4 or 5, instead of Round 3!

 

[Rowsus]

Does Bailey Williams interest you in any way Row?

Well, he's kind of cute, but I'm really not into that sort of thing!

From a SC point of view, no, one good score doesn't mean he's turned a corner.

 

[Pieman17]

Hi Rowsus, Hope you’re well.

What are your thoughts on Kruezer and Billings to Grundy and Yeo/Gray ?

Kruezer and Billings both aren’t scoring to what I thought they would and I feel this scoring might keep going. Would love to get your insight on whether you think their scoring will improve and if the trade/s is/are worthwhile.

Cheers and thanks in advance.

 

[Bomber18]

Hey B18,
my order for quasi Keepers is Murray, Doedee, Finlayson. I just like Murrays run, and I can see him lifting a little. Doedee tends to play taller than his actual height, and in the long run, that may hamper his SC scoring a little.
The best time to make the upgrade would seem to be when one of your intended targets takes a bit of a dip in price, due to an injury score or whatever, so you can keep the cash component as low as possible. To that end, you should have a list of about 6-8 Defs you are happy to target, and jump when they bottom out. Yeo is an example, though it might have been better if his poor score happened in Round 4 or 5, instead of Round 3!

Thanks for your thoughts Rowsus! Murray certainly looks like one of the recruits of the year for the pies.

I'm very attached to them all so probably will leave the decision as late as possible!

 

[Eagling]

Hey Rowsus,

Do you have any opinion on Dean Kent?

 

[Adrenaline]

hi rowsus

most teams will have hibberd and billings or one of the two. hibberd is avg around 75 and billings is avg 82. what are your thoughts about both of them? do you think we should persist with them and trade around them or trade them out of sides to a top 6 forward or defender like hurley or gray?

thanks