Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[GrainFedBeef]

I'm not an expert on heat maps, and I actually don't have access to them, but ....... are they showing where he got his possessions, or are they are showing where he ran? Yes, logic says he most likely to get his possessions where he has spent most of his time, but it's not necessarily proportional.
Since the start of last season Billings has averaged 23 disposals/game, and this season he is averaging 23 disposal/game. One of things I like to look at, to see if a Forward is playing Midfield time, is their IF50's and RB50's. As those possessions are gathered further up the ground, it gives some sort of indication. So let's break Billings 2017/2018 up into 4 blocks:
In those 26 games, Billings has 15 games with 23 or less disposals (SC ave 75.6), and 11 games with 25 or more disposals (SC ave 112.4).
6 games with 23 or less disposals, where his IF/RB% was less than 20% - Ave Disp 20.2, Ave SC 65.5, or 3.2/Disp
9 games with 23 or less disposals, where his IF/RB% was more than 20% - Ave Disp 18.9, Ave SC 82.3, or 4.4/Disp
2 games with 25 or more disposals, where his IF/RB% was less than 20% - Ave Disp 29.0, Ave SC 108.0, or 3.7/Disp
9 games with 25 or more disposal, where his IF/RB% was more than 20% - Ave Disp 27.6, Ave SC 113.3, or 4.1/Disp

It pans out pretty much as you might suspect. When he plays a more stay at home small Forward type role, and doesn't get much of the ball, his SC Ave really suffers. When he's getting up the ground, and getting a few more Disposals, his SC Ave goes up very dramatically.
That doesn't help with what will happen from here, but looking at this season's numbers, it's not promising if they continue.
Rnd 1 Disp 26 - IF/RB 27% - SC 133
Rnd 2 Disp 23 - IF/RB 30% - SC 79
Rnd 3 Disp 17 - IF/RB 12% - SC 54
Rnd 4 Disp 23 - IF/RB 9% - SC 65

I'm not fan of recommending people go early on Rookies, so I can't say the Guelfi/Mirra course is something I would recommend. Maybe the Billings to Grundy move is the way to go, but I'd be wary of how frail your Forward line is looking if you do.
The other options come down to how much cash you are holding, I guess.

Rowsus, as always your analysis is amazing! thanks for all that work.

That gives me more confidence in moving Billings on, whilst his role could reverse, I expect a combination of a weaker than expected Saint Kilda maybe partly driven by loss of Montagna/Riewdolt could further contribute to lower output for Billings. Agree heatmap shows where he gets possessions not spends time and can be misleading.

As much as I want Grundy, my concern is English fwd could be a risk as you suggest and if Lycett scores well he could sit on my bench for several weeks.

Starting to think I may wait for Grundy to play Gawn and Sandi in back to back weeks in a little while and hope his price comes down post the byes.

As much as everyone looking at Gray, I am tempted to go Billings to Mclean as the alternative. Although with Kelly out for 1 maybe 2 more weeks, I can consider trading him to Grundy or an Olivier type midfielder.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row, quick question:

My team is as follows:
($50,800 bank)
Laird, Hibberd, Lloyd, Finlayson, Doedee, Murray (Naughton, Murphy)
Titch, Dusty, Fyfe, Bont, Cripps, Coniglio, Kelly, Holman (Brayshaw, Banfield, Barry)
Gawn, Goldy (Olango)
McLean, Smith, Billings, Petracca, Christensen, Fritsch (Ryan, Garlett)

My issues are probably apparent, though from my perspective (in order) are:
Billings
Goldstein
Billings
Ryan (LTI, don't need FD)
Bont

I read your posts above re: Billings/Hibberd and yes, I'm in the unlucky 4.9% who own both!

Unfortunately my trade idea of Goldstein & Holman --> Grundy & Coffield fell 4.8k short... Is it worth considering another rookie, or has the horse (Grundy) bolted.
Does Billings & Brayshaw to Gray & Coffield seem a better choice?

Is there another option I'm missing? Is Billings actually my biggest problem?
I am going for overall as well, does getting in POD Gray (over say, Heeney) knowing I'll miss him in rd 10 seem a logical decision? How many points better than Heeney would he need to be? Is it a POD60 calculation for the missing game? He's probably a player many will bring in for rd11 anyway I'd guess, so the POD won't last long.


Sorry for the ramble, cheers mate.

Hey MC, I think that may be the longest "quick question" I've ever had!
I'm not convinced Goldy is as big a problem as his owners think, though his price and B/E are scary!
I'm not sure I'd get rid of Holman yet, I think he still has lots to offer, potentially.
Billings/Brayshaw ---> Gray/Coffield seems ok to me. I think it can be good idea to have 1 or 2 Port/GC Keepers in your team already. The plan of bringing them in after Round 10 sounds ok, but we never know what problems may hit, preventing this. Definitely it is advantageous to have a couple of these players through the main byes.
It's actually a very complicated calculation as to how much he may need to outscore Heeney, to be considered a better early pick. To be honest, I think it is over complicating the decision, and you should go with the one you like the best, that best fits your overall structure.

 

[Rowsus]

hey rowsus,
very quickly; if you had enough cash to turn goldy into grundy in one trade (gawn other ruck) and it doesn't effect any of your future trade plans. would you do it? y/n
thanks for your time legend!

hey bianchije,
I'm not sure how spending $120,000 won't affect future trade plans, but I'll say "no".

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Row, would love to know your thoughts on Parfitt. He has started the season very well and shown a very high ceiling. Any merit in going Billings > Parfitt +70K, for example?

Thanks mate!

Hey Erich,
there's nothing in his (very short) history to suggest this is more than a hot streak. His first season only produced 12 games, 9 of which were 53 or lower, then a 71, 73 & 99 mixed in there. His B/E makes him a little enticing, but it's hard to see him not being a regrettable trade.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, I am looking to trade Josh Kelly and Brayshaw this week. I can trade Kelly to Cripps/Cogs and Brayshaw up to Yeo/Savage (via Finlayson) which leaves ~$10k left over, however I only have Titch (no Dusty or Danger). Would this be a better move than simply trading Kelly to Dusty (leaving 170k left over)?

Hi Seedsman,
I think it depends on how happy you are with you VC/C set up. If you need another solid option, you are best to go to Dusty. If you are happy with your set up, then Cogs and Yeo/Savage seem fine.

 

[Rowsus]

Very good points there Rows.. Thanks. Just don’t like chasing points ie. Grundy
Fall just short of Grundy & Heeney for Kreuzer and Sloane
What are your thoughts on Zerrett? Tagged out of the game by Banfield against Freo and concussed in Rd1
Didn’t see what happened in Dogs game. Has his role changed? Has DSmith and Stringer played a part?
Other option is take a Risk with NN in Ruck and use cash savings elsewhere but almost a like for like injury wise with Kreuzer to NN. Can easily see NN being rested sometime.
In a tough predicament at the moment but hearing Sloane will miss anyway so he has to go.

I'd be more inclined to go NN than Merrett at the moment. I'd want to see Merrett has moved passed all his problems, while NN seems to be scoring well, although limited by his TOG management. I'd also be worried about a Prem that can be tagged out of a game, by a first year Rookie!

 

[Rowsus]

Hello Rowsus

I hope you are going well. I will be over your part of the world come Sunday - in Italy and Austria at least. Looking forward to it though my absence will probably play havoc with my supercoach team, not that I am doing very well. My starting strategy of having the injury affected Dangerfield, M Crouch and J Kelly, and no Martin or Mitchell, has played havoc on my ranking.
So what to do with Kelly if we accept that he may be an ongoing 'managed' player for the season given his groin issues. I have looked at 3 options - Kelly to Martin, Z Merrett or O'Meara - as per Trades 1-3 in the analysis below. (Note that I have done my own estimates of ppg based on current and past scoring trends):

View attachment 3845

Kelly > Martin was the intuitive choice, but I am not so sure now. The analysis suggests he is overpriced (his two big scores so far have included bags of 6 and 7 goals) and so I should wait till he comes down in price. Kelly to Merrett or O'Meara are sideways trades in terms of ppg, but Merrett yields $109K of cash and O'Meara $209K. I am leaning to going to O'Meara for the additional cash, even though he has higher risk. O'Meara to Martin or M Crouch may be an option in the future.

As I am keen to increase my scoring now, I have also looked at a 'multi' combining Kelly and Holman out and O'Meara and Merrett in:
View attachment 3846
For an outlay of $46,700 I should get an additional 29 ppg average. O'Meara also has a big price rise projected - higher than Holman - so I need to grab him now if I decide to bring him in.

So in summary, I am leaning to doing the multi-trade this week. I have a reasonable crop of rookies on the bubble, so I feel I may as well spend some cash now. Any comments on this analysis and proposed action will be greatly appreciated! cheers

Without wanting to put words into the great man's mouth, I'd say Rowsus would advocate having a reliable captain score for each week. Danger and Titch seem to be where many of the best scores have been coming from, and paying a bit extra for them is worth it in that regard. Danger; although he has a great scoring history, hasn't started the year as well as he previously has. His extended forward time might not be helping to facilitate good captain scores. 3/111 isn't causing mass hysteria for those without him in their squads.
Have you already brought in Titch recently to have not considered him in your options? If not he'd be priority 1 in my opinion!

Hello Cattleherder, I'm well thanks, and I hope you are going well too.
Have a great trip, I'm sure you will enjoy it all!
I agree in normal circumstances Martin is overpriced, but what is very hard to factor in, is his use in the VC/C loophole. Unless you are pretty secure that your VC/C loophole players are strong enough, I'd be getting Martin for Kelly.
I think Holman still has something to offer us, and I'm not 100% convinced that O'Meara has turned any corner. I'm also wary of trading in Stepping Stones. Starting them is one thing, trading them is another. Keep in mind, his short term cash projected gain, is all based around last weeks score. It's not enough, imo, to make him a strong trade in candidate. I'd like to see some positive signs from Merrett before I traded him in. It might mean you miss his bottom price, but it's better to pay a little more later, if your confidence is up.
Good luck, and bon voyage!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Row,

At this stage I'm 80% likely to let Billings go so considering replacements.

I have Robbie Gray pegged as a clear leader of the pack but interested in your thoughts on Jesse Hogan. Specifically - do you think he can be a top 6 forward this year? He seems to be playing a NRoo type role but I'm unsure if this is likely to continue throughout the season and would appreciate some Demon insight!

Hi Xab,
I don't quite see him as an Nroo type. It may surprise some people, but he's actually 2cm taller than NRoo, but I don't think he'll ever be half the Mark taker NRoo was. This means he's less likely to be the target, even when up on the flank or wing, than NRoo ever was. You could go to NRoo with strong confidence he'd take the mark, even in a pack. I'm not sure we'll say that about Hogan.
That's an important difference in their potential scoring. I know some good judges (both football and SC) like Hogan (Ben's Beasts springs to mind), and think he can maintain his efforts so far. I'm sceptical. I did say when asked in the pre-season, if I could entertain picking him, that I would only do it if I was assured he'd continue to get up the ground a bit. Well, he's doing that, for now, but for mine it's "Good luck to those that started him, but I'm not trading him in now".

 

[Rowsus]

Hey mate,

So far Goldy has put up scores of 57 and 76 with Majak Daw in the same side. I think week 1 was just due to being smashed by Gawn, but last week Daw had 10 hitouts.

With that in mind, and Goldy looking to be a problem, is Goldy > Grundy warranted? Or is Goldy worth holding?

Cheers

Hey mate,
Daw only contested 21 Ruck contests across those 2 games. As a comparison, Ben Brown contested 17 in the first 2 games (and only 3 since Daw came in), so I don't think it is Daw that is upsetting Goldy.
I'd probably punt on holding Goldy for now.

 

[Steuby]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm really at a crossroads this week.
I have both J.Kelly and Billings and i feel as though i have to move both on. In doing so, i'm missing out on Coffield and cash generation as a whole. What i want to ask is the trade-off of missing such a cash cow worth it to move on 2 underperforming premiums?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm really at a crossroads this week.
I have both J.Kelly and Billings and i feel as though i have to move both on. In doing so, i'm missing out on Coffield and cash generation as a whole. What i want to ask is the trade-off of missing such a cash cow worth it to move on 2 underperforming premiums?

Hey Steuby,
if you think Coffield is a must have Cash-Cow, which might largely depend on who you have already, then go Kelly to Coffield. Otherwise, I'm sure there a few possible replacement Cash Cows coming up next week.

 

[Slammer]

I'd be more inclined to go NN than Merrett at the moment. I'd want to see Merrett has moved passed all his problems, while NN seems to be scoring well, although limited by his TOG management. I'd also be worried about a Prem that can be tagged out of a game, by a first year Rookie!

Thanks Rows. Much appreciated as always.
Will boil down to my structure and risk taking I guess
1. NN/ McLean leaving $135k
2. NN/Heeney leaving $113k
3. Grundy/McLean leaving approx $10k
Structure wise I am leaning towards 1. for now

 

[XabiFernando]

Hi Xab,
I don't quite see him as an Nroo type. It may surprise some people, but he's actually 2cm taller than NRoo, but I don't think he'll ever be half the Mark taker NRoo was. This means he's less likely to be the target, even when up on the flank or wing, than NRoo ever was. You could go to NRoo with strong confidence he'd take the mark, even in a pack. I'm not sure we'll say that about Hogan.
That's an important difference in their potential scoring. I know some good judges (both football and SC) like Hogan (Ben's Beasts springs to mind), and think he can maintain his efforts so far. I'm sceptical. I did say when asked in the pre-season, if I could entertain picking him, that I would only do it if I was assured he'd continue to get up the ground a bit. Well, he's doing that, for now, but for mine it's "Good luck to those that started him, but I'm not trading him in now".

Thanks as always Row! Will revisit this around the byes and take Gray for now.

 

[KellyMartinToNorth2018]

Hey Rowsus, I've set my mind on culling one of Petracca or Smith next week. Obviously it will depend on their performances this week,

however at this stage do you have any tips regarding what you see their roles as and what they will average from now onwards?

Petracca in particular, I do think Viney returning in a few weeks is going to influence him badly.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, I've set my mind on culling one of Petracca or Smith next week. Obviously it will depend on their performances this week,

however at this stage do you have any tips regarding what you see their roles as and what they will average from now onwards?

Petracca in particular, I do think Viney returning in a few weeks is going to influence him badly.

Hey KMTN2018,
Petracca $445,100 - B/E 86 - 95, 85, 106, 69 - Ave 89
Smith $457,800 - B/E 101 - 92, 111, 86, 82 - Ave 93

Outside of Oliver, I'd be weary of any Melbourne player you chose, that is going to need Midtime to be a decent pick. There's just so many rotating through there, that very few will get a good crack at it. I can't see any of those young Melbourne "potential" Mids being good picks this season. You are right, the return of Viney will only exacerbate the problem further.

I reckon if Smith was good enough, he wouldn't have had to have left GWS to get a crack at what he wanted. There's not too many examples of players with 100+ games under their belts, changing clubs, and suddenly becoming better players, or more SC relevant. For the most part, if they have a reasonably established scoring pattern, it doesn't change. Sometimes they can produce a bit of a spike season at their new club, as they try to justify the move. Usually that can peter out as we get deeper into the season.

I see Petracca continuing on as he started. Mainly half forward, but he'll have the odd game where his Midtime goes up. Unless Melbourne get some more injuries, it will be just now and then he gets more Midtime. I think he may average around 86-90 from here.

I also see Smith continuing as he started, mainly playing Mid, but some stints Forward. I find his Tackle numbers a bit confusing and worrying: 5, 13, 2, 11. Does he mentally just not get there some games? If so, things tend to fall to the state of least energy. ie - they will fall from his current 7.8 average, which cant be good for his scoring. I can see him averaging around 88-90 from here.

I can only imagine you are burning one of them to get a Dangerfield type player, otherwise it would seem better to move them back in your upgrade list. If I was burning one next week, without having seen their Round 5 games, I would burn Petracca. He seems less likely to be an ok F5/6 than Smith.

 

[Green Acres]

A warm hello to you good sir!

I feel I've stuffed up my mid & defence rookie structure through the trades I did this round.

I have been fielding TKelly, NHolman as M7, M8.
However JFinlayson is now in my mids and this round he took the M8 spot from Holman. Holman who scored 88 points that is.
Meanwhile, with the result of Finlayson now not being in my defence, I had a juicy choice between DMirra and ANaughton for D6. The difference between Holman's score and Mirra (who I chose) was 34 points.
Now yes I did see this coming when I did my trades, but really had no other way to manage it. I was compromised by not starting any rookie F/M in the Forward line.
So the trading of injured JKelly to RGray involved a premo F/M (Heeney) moving to mids. This really should have shut down my next trade of rookie ABrayshaw to Mirra which brought a third viable onfield rookie, Finlayson, into a line with only two onfield rookie spots available. However I was deadset on Mirra coming in a week early because of my plans for next week. Obviously trading in NCoffield instead of Mirra would have avoided this, but it was a matter of finances looking to next week's trades.
Which brings me to my question.

As a matter of principle, to what extent should one's trades be compromised by future planning, rather than trading in the here and now of the current round?

 

[Rowsus]

A warm hello to you good sir!

I feel I've stuffed up my mid & defence rookie structure through the trades I did this round.

I have been fielding TKelly, NHolman as M7, M8.
However JFinlayson is now in my mids and this round he took the M8 spot from Holman. Holman who scored 88 points that is.
Meanwhile, with the result of Finlayson now not being in my defence, I had a juicy choice between DMirra and ANaughton for D6. The difference between Holman's score and Mirra (who I chose) was 34 points.
Now yes I did see this coming when I did my trades, but really had no other way to manage it. I was compromised by not starting any rookie F/M in the Forward line.
So the trading of injured JKelly to RGray involved a premo F/M (Heeney) moving to mids. This really should have shut down my next trade of rookie ABrayshaw to Mirra which brought a third viable onfield rookie, Finlayson, into a line with only two onfield rookie spots available. However I was deadset on Mirra coming in a week early because of my plans for next week. Obviously trading in NCoffield instead of Mirra would have avoided this, but it was a matter of finances looking to next week's trades.
Which brings me to my question.

As a matter of principle, to what extent should one's trades be compromised by future planning, rather than trading in the here and now of the current round?

.... and a hearty good day to you, sir.
Unfortunately, you can't give a "one size fits all" type answer to that question.
The better players have at least moderate future trades planned out. At least the next 3 or 4 weeks, written in pencil of course, because the landscape changes so much, from week to week. Some trades are more important than others. In basic terms, the trades that will bring in hopeful D1/2, M1/2//3, R1 or 2, F1/2 are more important trades, than trades that bring in lesser rated players. If your judgement is right on those higher rated players, getting them right, and paying a roughly reasonable price, is more important than those lower trades. To that extent, if you had say, plans to bring in Dangerfield in Round 7, then you might have to compromise your Round 5 and/or 6 trades, to keep that goal on track. Outside of those long(er) term plans, I think you just roll with the best you can, while trying to keep an eye on your structure, that means byes, DPP's and balance.

So did you screw the pooch? Or was it ok to buckle your structure as you seem to have?
The answer to that lies in how important next weeks trade is to the overall view of your team going forward.

 

[Bones]

G'day Rowsus,

I hope your SC team is travelling better than your beloved Demons. Speaking of Demons I'm losing the faith in a couple of them - Hibberd and Petracca, particularly Petracca. Hard to judge Hibberd's game from Tuesday - getting your snoz mashed twice in a game would throw you off I would think. But Petracca! So I'm seriously contemplating committing SC heresy and trading both out as follows:

Rd 6 - Hibberd to Yeo, Petracca to Guelfi
Rd 7 - Bonner to Cole, Brayshaw to Danger

25 trades left before the above. If I'm going to get Danger in before he starts to go back up in price then I will need to trade one of my 'premiums' although I have C/VC options with Dusty, Titch and Fyfe. Too aggressive?

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey Row,

I have B Ellis in my draft squad and am wondering if there's some sort of explanation for his unprecedented drop off?!
He seemed one of the safest defenders for a 20+games/85+score this season and has fronted up with 50s!
He's averaging about 6 or 7 touches less than usual, has his role changed?


I also am still battling onwards with Bont/Hibberd/Petracca/Goldstein... Any advice beyond the Glenfarclas bottle I'm currently nursing?

 

[Rowsus]

G'day Rowsus,

I hope your SC team is travelling better than your beloved Demons. Speaking of Demons I'm losing the faith in a couple of them - Hibberd and Petracca, particularly Petracca. Hard to judge Hibberd's game from Tuesday - getting your snoz mashed twice in a game would throw you off I would think. But Petracca! So I'm seriously contemplating committing SC heresy and trading both out as follows:

Rd 6 - Hibberd to Yeo, Petracca to Guelfi
Rd 7 - Bonner to Cole, Brayshaw to Danger

25 trades left before the above. If I'm going to get Danger in before he starts to go back up in price then I will need to trade one of my 'premiums' although I have C/VC options with Dusty, Titch and Fyfe. Too aggressive?

G'day Bones,
my SC team is doing roughly the same as my Demons, unfortunately.
I can't see Petracca being a good F6, so sacrificing him to get Dangerfield seems fine to me.
All those trades look good to me, and not too aggressive it all.
Pretty much everyone that didn't start Danger, that wants to get him before his bye, needs to sacrifice a (hopeful) Keeper, I would think.