Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus · 26 Apr 2018

Hey MC,
B Ellis is a really tricky one!
2014: 22/97, 26 Disp/game - Rnds 1-5 5/68, 18 Disp/game, Rnds 1-9 8/77, 22 Disp/game, Rnds 10-23, 14/108, 31 Disp/game
2015: 22/103, 26 Disp/game - Largely a consistent season.
2016: 22/85, 24 Disp/game - Rnds 1-15 14/91, 25 Disp/game, Rnds 16-23 8/76, 22 Disp/game
2017: 22/91, 22 Disp/game - Rnds 1-9 9/79, 20 Disp/game, Rnds 10-23 13/100 26 Disp/game

As you can see, it's pretty much his pattern, to have large chunks of both good and bad scoring during his season. The questions are, do you hold faith, that he will keep to that pattern? And how long until he turns it around, if he ever does?
They're both really tough questions. My thoughts are, now his price has dipped under $400k, I would just ride him out, and hope he turns it around. It's a case of him being the best available player around that price, so you might as well stick fat for now.

As for the other 4, I can see stronger arguments for holding Bont, Hibberd and Goldy, but Petracca was a bit of a punt and hope. While he's not the most disappointing of those 4, he's the one I'd have least faith in filling a decent spot in your team, from here to the end of the season.

Monya Meow Meow · 26 Apr 2018

Hi Row, hope you are doing fine.
Just wanted to pick your brains in regards to trade strategies in general and what would your priorities be if presented with the following options:

(1) Good rookies presenting themselves eg. ZGL/Higgins/Guelfi/Mirra
(2) Fallen premo with good history eg. Zerrett/Yeo
(3) Dangerfield

I find myself in the situation this week where any of the above 3 options are possible, yet my existing rookies have not fully fattened.
What would be the best strategy for this week?

DEF: Laird/Simmo/Savage/Finlayson/Murray/Doedee (Naughton/Keefe)
MID: Titch/Dusty/Fyfe/Oliver/Cogs/Kelly/Holman/Banfield (Coffield/Barry/O'Connor)
RUC: Gawn/Martin (Olango)
FWD: Heeney/Smith/Sicily/Billings/Trac/Crowden (Fritsch/Venables)

Thanks for your time as usual

Deeman1 · 26 Apr 2018

Hi Rowan,

Trust you are well.

My question is similar to MMM's above so if the advise is similar/the same no need to double up.

My tradable players this week are:

Bonner, Doedee, Murray (Murphy, O'Connor)

Kelly, Finlayson, Holman (Banfield, Garlett, Brayshaw)

(Olango)

Dunkley (Henry Fritsch)

Doedee, Murray, Finlayson, Kelly, Holman, Henry are not under consideration for trade this week. That leaves Bonner, Murphy, O'Connor, Banfeild, Brayshaw, Garlett and Fritsch for trade.

Looking to bring in 2 of Higgins/Guefli/Mirra this week. Have $235k in bank already and the additional cash this week will fund Danger in next week.

I currenty have 3 rookies not making any cash (Murphy, O'Connor, Olango) and Garlett and Fritsch (whom I think is a good chance to come back in this week if fit, so would be the last of the list to be traded this week).

What do you think is the best stategy going forward, trade a non cash making rookie (Murphy, O'Connor) or go with another option. Happy to sit on Bonner one more week if necessary.

O'Connor is currenlty being used as a FD, but the Cats order of games for next 6 games are 2nd, 1st, 9th, 4th, 4th, 4th so his loophole oppurtunities are somewhat limited for next 6 weeks.

Thanks in advance for your time.

Erich1036 · 26 Apr 2018

Hey again Row, just a quick one. Would love to know your thoughts on Deledio! Thanks mate.

Mudflap · 26 Apr 2018

Hi Rowsus. Tom Hickey...... is he a trap? Any chance he can maintain or increase his current average?

blue dreamer · 26 Apr 2018

Hey rowsus,

Just a quick one that only needs a quick reply.

Want to replace Buddy with a fwd but don't want to use any of my bank.

Who do you think is the best scoring forward for the rest of the season priced up to $ 514,200 (could go slightly over if you think there is a stand out above that price).

Not concerned with R10 bye.

Some names I am considering, but am open to suggestions, Westhoff, Hogan, Brown, Walters, Breust, Boak, De Goey and the list goes on.

Thanks in advance.

Oh and secondary question, who has the best JS from ZGL & Guelfi?

Edit: or should I spend the extra and get a Heeney or suchlike although the main reason I don't want to spend more than Buddys price is to get Danger shortly.

Slammer · 26 Apr 2018

Hey Rows,

Have Buddy to deal with along with Sicily which I will have to keep
Burnt 6 trades already which is a worry but could face donut if Fritsch doesn’t play
Would I be mad to turn Buddy into Danger and say Garlett into Guelfi this week
Don’t really want to trade Buddy but he could be out for awhile

KellyMartinToNorth2018 · 27 Apr 2018

Hey Row!

Would you trade Naughton, Richards or Henry for Guelfi?

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

Monya Meow Meow said:

Hi MMM,
I'm good thanks, I hope you are too.
I find myself pretty much in the same boat. I decided very early in the week to get Dangerfield this week (for Sloane out), but I'm really worried about what downgrade targets we might get 2 to 4 weeks from now. I usually don't have the patience to play the long game, but I've decided to put Dangerfield back a week, and go:
Venables/Naughton ---> Guelfi/Mirra.
I don't see either as must haves, and I like Guelfi more than Mirra, but I think sometimes you just have to grab what looks like a half decent downgrade target, while they present.

Monya Meow Meow · 27 Apr 2018

Rowsus said:

Hey Row, doing alright here and thanks!
Petracca out injured has complicated matters a bit more for me this week but I see the same thought pattern applying so I am thinking of doing Trac/Venables > ZGL/Guelfi.
It will mean I miss out on Zerrett but I get to keep all my rookies this week and do a straight swap from Banfield/Naughton to Danger next week.

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

Deeman1 said:

Hi Ash,
I hope our Dee's aren't making you too sick. Boy we need TMac back, to add some grunt and marking in the Forward line!
I'm trusting Murphy (who I have) will be back sooner or later, but I have less faith in O'Connor (who I don't have). It's always tough with those deadwood Rookies. I generally think you just hang on to them, until it becomes too impractical not to. It tends to waste both trades and money otherwise. I too think Fritsch is a chance to come back this week, but I don't think he's a long term prospect. He just doesn't get involved enough, and when they've finished fine tuning the Forward line with TMac at CHF, I think Fritsch becomes a 24th or 25th type player. I'd definitely give Bonner more opportunity, now that HH is out. It would affect his role in some way, you'd think.
Of your potential ins, I have chosen Guelfi and Mirra this week. I'm really worried about Higgins JS and role.
Looking at your outs, if they continued to get picked, but never really hit a spike score, then the order would be, based on the earning potential from here:
Brayshaw (+$40k), Garlett (+$50k), Fritsch (+$90k).
I hope that helped, and good luck!

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

Erich1036 said:

Hey Erich,
I think it's too late to risk him now. Good luck to those that did, at the rock bottom price, they have a win, of sorts, even if he breaks down this week.
The problem is two fold:
His role seems largely dependant on who else is available. ie he's not first in line for it.
He's made of peanut brittle.
If you knew he could hold himself together, and keep the role, for at least another say 8 weeks, he'd still be worth the punt. As it is, the chance of him doing both means we have probably missed the boat on him, unless you really feel like a big punt.

Big shout out to Philzsay, who did take the punt early on. Well done, Phil!

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

Mudflap said:

Maintaining his current average would be the minimum required to consider him. The bare minimum.
He's been matched against:
Dawson "break glass in times of emergency" Simpson
Rhys "that's why St Kilda dumped me" Stanley.
Hardly high credentials to average 90 against those 2.
His coming opponents are:
McEvoy, Gawn, Sandi, Grundy, Nank, NicNat.
Not a good draw for those looking for a value hit and run selection.

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

blue dreamer said:

Hey blue,
I love how people's quick questions suddenly become longer, and more complicated!

I'm expecting Heeney to be at least a top 3 Forward this season, and if he is, you'll need him.
If you decide to go the "no cash" route, I'd go Westhoff, I think his role only gets better with Ryder coming back, and Watts freeing him up to roam more.
I think Guelfi might just pip ZGL for job security.

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

Slammer said:

Hey Slammer,
not mad at all. Both seem like perfectly reasonable trades to me.

blue dreamer · 27 Apr 2018

Rowsus said:

Hey blue,
I love how people's quick questions suddenly become longer, and more complicated!

I'm expecting Heeney to be at least a top 3 Forward this season, and if he is, you'll need him.
If you decide to go the "no cash" route, I'd go Westhoff, I think his role only gets better with Ryder coming back, and Watts freeing him up to roam more.
I think Guelfi might just pip ZGL for job security.

Thanks for the prompt (before lockout) reply.

Must spread rep (soz).

Rowsus · 27 Apr 2018

KellyMartinToNorth2018 said:

Hey KMTN,
of the 3, Richards still has the most money left to make, outside of any of them hitting a spike score, and Henry has shown a higher ceiling, so I'd pick Naughton.

blue dreamer · 28 Apr 2018

Hi again Rowan,

I don't normally feature very strongly in this thread and now have two in two days for you.

My question is do I really need Danger?

I have already used 7 trades and wonder if I am able to get full premo with Danger now.

As I am ranked 23,604 I am prepared to reveal more team info than many at the pointy end would so here is my starting team followed by my R6 team (after R6 trades)

Rance, Hibberd, Laird, Marchbank, Finlayson, Naughton, (Doedee, Murray)

Cripps, Fyfe, J. Kelly, Ablett, Mitchell, Banfield, Dow, Brayshaw, (Holman, T Kelly, Barry)

Gawn, Sandilands, (English)

Buddy, Sicily, Curnow, Smith, Fritsch, D. Fogarty, (Garlett, Ryan)

Round 6: (bank remaining $ 230,400)

Laird, Rance, Finlayson, Doedee, Murray, Naughton, ( Coffield, Murphy)

Mitchell, Fyfe, Martin, Coniglio, Cripps, T. Kelly, Holman, Banfield, (J. Kelly, Brayshaw, Barry)

Gawn, Sandilands, (English)

Gray, Heeney, Smith, Curnow, Fritsch, Guelfi, (Sicily, D. Fogarty)

Trades:

R3: Hibberd/Dow - Martin/Murphy

R4: Ablett/Marchbank - Coniglio/Gray

R5: Ryan - Coffield

R6: Franklin/Garlett - Heeney/Guelfi

I look at these and don't feel any are wasted (yet) but Dow to Murphy the jury is out on.

So looking at my current team there are (J Kelly and Sicily on bench)10 rookies onfield (plus maybe Devon Smith & Charlie Curnow) to upgrade and I have 23 trades.

Originally Danger was in my side but before lockout he became Ablett with the thought that as soon as Ablett went down they would swap back, as you can see Ablett became Coniglio instead in round 4 to assist with Marchbank becoming Gray.

I am happy with both these trades.

With so many upgrades needed and (when fit) having 6 premo mids should I upgrade forward and defence first and look to Danger if possible later or still prioritise Danger at the possible detriment of other lines or even totally put Danger out of my thoughts until fully upgraded and maybe see him as a luxury if any trades are left late in the season.

I don't usually have such long posts so sorry if this has rambled and hope it makes sense.

No rush for the answer and thanks in advance.

I will try to not be so frugal in my handing out of reps in anticipation of wanting to rep your answer too.

Cheers

Blue Dreamer

Rowsus · 28 Apr 2018

blue dreamer said:

Hi Blue Dreamer,
in simple terms, yes you do need Dangerfield.
The question then becomes how and when.
He's dropping in price, but has an achievable B/E this week (135?), so might turn the corner and creep up again. But you never know when he might throw in a 90, and at his price, that can really cause some movement down in price for a week or three.
I'd be keeping an eye on him, and just be prepared to have a slightly compromised D6 and or F6 to accomodate getting Danger. I'm pretty sure the difference between:
Danger + compromised D6 + compromised F6
and
your otherwise M9 + decent D6 + decent F6
will likely favour the Dangerfield combination. There might be 30/game difference between Dangerfield and what would otherwise be your M9, while the difference between compromised D/F6 and better D/F6 is unlikely to come to 30/game, unless you end up with some real dodgy selections there.

I think your Rnd 4 trades were fantastic, and the best you've done so far this season. Far better than grabbing Danger that Round!

Good luck
Rowsus

blue dreamer · 28 Apr 2018

Rowsus said:

Hi Blue Dreamer,
in simple terms, yes you do need Dangerfield.
The question then becomes how and when.
He's dropping in price, but has an achievable B/E this week (135?), so might turn the corner and creep up again. But you never know when he might throw in a 90, and at his price, that can really cause some movement down in price for a week or three.
I'd be keeping an eye on him, and just be prepared to have a slightly compromised D6 and or F6 to accomodate getting Danger. I'm pretty sure the difference between:
Danger + compromised D6 + compromised F6
and
your otherwise M9 + decent D6 + decent F6
will likely favour the Dangerfield combination. There might be 30/game difference between Dangerfield and what would otherwise be your M9, while the difference between compromised D/F6 and better D/F6 is unlikely to come to 30/game, unless you end up with some real dodgy selections there.

I think your Rnd 4 trades were fantastic, and the best you've done so far this season. Far better than grabbing Danger that Round!

Good luck
Rowsus

Thanks Rowan the voice of reason as usual, still can't rep you yet.

Blue Dreamer

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