Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[TommyGobbler]

Hi Rowsus,

I’m torn this week with what move to make, hoping you can share some wisdom.

I’m looking to upgrade Finlayson but there are only 2 defenders I don’t have that I would consider (already have Sicily, Yeo, Shaw, Lloyd).

They are:

R Laird 554k - Preseason prediction: 100avg, Current: 113avg

K Simpson 501k - preaseason prediction: 95avg, current: 106avg

Allowing for adjusted average, neither of them seem like worthy trade-ins going off the above numbers.

Do I ignore them and leave Finlayson on the field for a few more weeks?

Or do I accept a loss and pay the price for Laird/Simpson, even though they may dip from this point.

 

[Slammer]

G’day Rows,

Plan to bring Danger in this week but fall a little short for just one trade.
So it is Danger and Rookie most likely bringing on Phillips or Cumming etc. early.
Problem is which two to move on out of Holman, Bradshaw, Doedee, Findlayson and Rayner.
Yes I know Doedee and Findlayson have highest BE’s but can’t help think their potential to score higher and reasonable JS I should keep them.
Bradshaw and Rayner seem the slow burners and Holman can score ok but probably has shakiest JS.
Also have Crowden, Keefe, Guelfi, ZGL, Murphy who are all playing but are not enough to make the both trades.
Any suggestions appreciated $183k

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I didnt start Dusty this year and though my decision looked dubious at the start of the year it looks like a good one right now. I would love to bring him in next week assuming he is around the $480-90k mark but after bringing Danger in this week i am only left with $40k in the bank. I have no mid cash cows mooing so my only real option that i can see to bring Dusty in is for T Kelly. Looking at my team below, can you see anything wrong with that move - or see a trade that I should be prioritising?

My team after trades this week is as follows:

(20 trades left, 40k in the bank)

Def: Yeo, Simpson, McGovern, L Ryan, Doedee, Finlayson (Cole, Murphy)

Mid: Danger, Fyfe, J Kelly, P Cripps, Neale, TMitchell, Coniglio, T Kelly (Holman, Spargo, E Phillips)

Rucks: Gawn, Lycett (Olango)

Forwards: Heeney, Franklin, Lambert, D Smith, Dixon, Fritsch (ZGL, Guelfi)


Keen to hear your thoughts mate, cheers

Hi JLK5,
given you have held J Kelly and Franklin through their missed games, I am guessing you are playing for League glory, and not overall.

It looks like you traded out Brayshaw and Crowden this week, to get Phillips and Dangerfield.

Given that those trades looked like reasonable steps to reach Danger, I think we are best re-visiting this question next week, when we have more information, on which Rookies you might need to move, and how Dusty looks this week.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, any interest in Tuohy at 360k?
He has a decent draw of Essendon, Carlton, Suns, and North and then the Tigers before the bye.
Could we see a "regression" of scores that sees him push towards the 480k mark (to possibly swap around the byes) or is he not really worth it?

Cheers for all your work!
B18

Hi B18,
no interest over here, whatsover. Before last season he looked like a 79-80 type player, and he's not far off looking like one this season, too.
To reach your goal of $480k by his bye, he needs to score at 110. If he scores 5 x 110's, you probably aren't letting him go!
You must be swimming in trades to be considering a high risk, short term, Stepping Stone, at this time of the season!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I’m torn this week with what move to make, hoping you can share some wisdom.

I’m looking to upgrade Finlayson but there are only 2 defenders I don’t have that I would consider (already have Sicily, Yeo, Shaw, Lloyd).

They are:

R Laird 554k - Preseason prediction: 100avg, Current: 113avg

K Simpson 501k - preaseason prediction: 95avg, current: 106avg

Allowing for adjusted average, neither of them seem like worthy trade-ins going off the above numbers.

Do I ignore them and leave Finlayson on the field for a few more weeks?

Or do I accept a loss and pay the price for Laird/Simpson, even though they may dip from this point.

Hi TG,
I think your pre-season expectations of Simpson and Laird were pretty much in line with mine, too.
For those interested, those expectations now translate to, for the rest of the season:
Laird 92 from here, Simpson 88 from here.
I do think some sort of adjustment on their expectations is ok with both of them, but I wouldn't be going up to anything like their current averages.
As to how much you adjust them, that's really up to the individual.
Either way, if there is no one else you have confidence in, then I'd grab Simpson, as he's $50k cheaper, but the difference in expectations is worth far less than $50k.

 

[Rowsus]

G’day Rows,

Plan to bring Danger in this week but fall a little short for just one trade.
So it is Danger and Rookie most likely bringing on Phillips or Cumming etc. early.
Problem is which two to move on out of Holman, Bradshaw, Doedee, Findlayson and Rayner.
Yes I know Doedee and Findlayson have highest BE’s but can’t help think their potential to score higher and reasonable JS I should keep them.
Bradshaw and Rayner seem the slow burners and Holman can score ok but probably has shakiest JS.
Also have Crowden, Keefe, Guelfi, ZGL, Murphy who are all playing but are not enough to make the both trades.
Any suggestions appreciated $183k

G'day Slam,
I think I'd use Finlayson and Rayner.
They look the two at greatest risk of going backwards quickly.

 

[Bomber18]

Hi B18,
no interest over here, whatsover. Before last season he looked like a 79-80 type player, and he's not far off looking like one this season, too.
To reach your goal of $480k by his bye, he needs to score at 110. If he scores 5 x 110's, you probably aren't letting him go!
You must be swimming in trades to be considering a high risk, short term, Stepping Stone, at this time of the season!

Thanks for the response! Just good to know your thoughts on him. I'm unlikely to bring him in but thought he could be a reasonable left field option.

Kind of in a similar vein, any interest in JJK next round at around 370k next round? Haven't fully figured out his draw but he does have the Saints at home and Essendon in his next four from next round.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for the response! Just good to know your thoughts on him. I'm unlikely to bring him in but thought he could be a reasonable left field option.

Kind of in a similar vein, any interest in JJK next round at around 370k next round? Haven't fully figured out his draw but he does have the Saints at home and Essendon in his next four from next round.

Now that one I'm interested in!
I intend to watch him play this week, to get a feel of how he's moving, and if looks ok, he's definitely a chance to come in!

 

[anfa18]

Hey Rowsus, hope all is well.

This week i broke back into the top 2,000 and i may be on the verge of doing something silly this week.

Murray > Ridley
Henry > McKernan

McKernan has never shown to be fantasy relevant and after a few games he ends up playing in the 2s. Considering he's 305k, has DPP for ruck cover (with English my R3 who will be out for a few more weeks), has a B/E of -24 and has put two 90+ scores together with good stats in a row. Is he a viable option at all? I feel if a worst case scenario occurred, Daniher returns in the next 2-3 weeks and McKernan's scores drop back to 60s, i can trade him out at his bye to Darling/Gray/Westhoff. On the flip side, he manages to string a couple more good scores till his bye and he could be a cheap F6/F7 with possible R3 use for the rest of the season.

Taking McKernan this week leaves me with 250k in the bank to facilitate a Fritsch to Buddy/Boak/Westhoff/McDonald trade next week.


I'm very torn and would love to hear your thoughts on this.

 

[Bones]

Hi Rowsus,

In need of a little guidance - whether to upgrade Kelly to Danger and finish off my midfield or upgrade my Defence (Doedee, Murray and Cole onfield) or my Forwards (Billings and Fritsch onfield)?

I am afraid of Danger taking off which is why I am leaning towards the Kelly option. Alternatively leave Kelly in place until after the byes and upgrade a defence rookie to T Mcdonald / Hurley (Rd 13 bye suits). I am more inclined to upgrade defence rather than fwds as Fritsch is OK and Billings I was going to trade out around the byes if he doesn't come good to give him more time to show the awesome talent we know he's bottling up

Appreciate your thought oh wise one.

 

[dyii]

Hi Rowsus,

I jumped on the Gray train early and have benefited from all of his scores bar one, but after his performance on the weekend and Rocky's form I'm a bit worried about what he'll average from here. I'm anticipating maybe a 90 average from here if Hinkley plays him as a forward pocket.

Would it be crazy to 'slingshot' him to Danger this round?

Cheers

 

[Slammer]

G'day Slam,
I think I'd use Finlayson and Rayner.
They look the two at greatest risk of going backwards quickly.

Thanks Rows for the advice ... worked out pretty well
Next mission is McDonald but fall short of using Murray straight out.
18 trades. Do I go again and bring him in via one up one down?
Crowden will be dropped this week. Is he worth trading? Cannot see him getting back in.

 

[siwel]

Hi Rowsus,
Two questions for me this week, first one is around Buddy. Assuming Buddy plays each game up to the Swans bye, what would he need to average to be a worthwhile selection?
I am thinking of selecting him due to his good draw with the hope and view he scores well and goes up in value and is a trade to a C Oliver, J Kelly, T Greene type in rd 14.

Secondly, do you have any thoughts around selecting premiums from teams that are clearly not going to make finals? My concern is a player like L Neale / M Walters from Freo may be negatively affected with Freo being out of the finals hunt either through not playing through a niggle / early surgery or by the same happening to players around them (e.g. Sandi not playing).

 

[Adrenaline]

hi row

i am considering a midfield upgrade this week. i would love to have macrae but he is out of reach. my current midfield setup is danger, martin, mitchell, fyfe, cripps, cogs, t kelly, philipps.

i was considering oliver neale or gaff or someone else.

i was hoping if you could provide your suggestions?

thanks

 

[Herbie66]

Hi Rowsus.

Hope all is well , as expected after 9 rounds , my season is pretty much over , ranked 17,717th and 1400 + points behind the leader.

I have now realised no point in bringing in players that all the teams above me have (been waiting for Laird & Yeo to drop) so looking for someone different in defence.

I currently have :-

Sicily , T McDonald , Simpson , Seedsman , Shaw , Murray ( Coffield, Murphy)

So I was wondering what your thoughts are on Harris Andrews and if you see him as someone who could ave 95 + for the remainder of the season or should I just wait for Hurley to drop in price or go for Mr Reliable in Rance ?

Or is their anyone else out of the "usual" suspects that is worth s punt on ?

I appreciate any help you maybe able to offer me.

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, hope all is well.

This week i broke back into the top 2,000 and i may be on the verge of doing something silly this week.

Murray > Ridley
Henry > McKernan

McKernan has never shown to be fantasy relevant and after a few games he ends up playing in the 2s. Considering he's 305k, has DPP for ruck cover (with English my R3 who will be out for a few more weeks), has a B/E of -24 and has put two 90+ scores together with good stats in a row. Is he a viable option at all? I feel if a worst case scenario occurred, Daniher returns in the next 2-3 weeks and McKernan's scores drop back to 60s, i can trade him out at his bye to Darling/Gray/Westhoff. On the flip side, he manages to string a couple more good scores till his bye and he could be a cheap F6/F7 with possible R3 use for the rest of the season.

Taking McKernan this week leaves me with 250k in the bank to facilitate a Fritsch to Buddy/Boak/Westhoff/McDonald trade next week.


I'm very torn and would love to hear your thoughts on this.

Hi anfa, I'm ok, I hope you are well.
I think it's a very viable plan, though going a Round early on Ridley obviously has its' risks.
The only rider I'd put on the McKernan trade is, I wouldn't do it if you have less than 17 trades left coming into this week.
That would be adding a link into a chain, and with say 15 trades left, you can't afford that.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

In need of a little guidance - whether to upgrade Kelly to Danger and finish off my midfield or upgrade my Defence (Doedee, Murray and Cole onfield) or my Forwards (Billings and Fritsch onfield)?

I am afraid of Danger taking off which is why I am leaning towards the Kelly option. Alternatively leave Kelly in place until after the byes and upgrade a defence rookie to T Mcdonald / Hurley (Rd 13 bye suits). I am more inclined to upgrade defence rather than fwds as Fritsch is OK and Billings I was going to trade out around the byes if he doesn't come good to give him more time to show the awesome talent we know he's bottling up

Appreciate your thought oh wise one.

Hi Bones,
I think Hurley should be pushed back on your list a little, until we are sure he is ok.
I'd be going to TMac before Danger. Their B/E's are around 63 apart, so economically it is a better option.
While Kelly has a big B/E, he has a couple of easyish games coming up, so it might be worth the risk of hanging onto him.
Also, we can't be 100% sure Danger is in beast mode, so getting a little more info on him doesn't hurt, either.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I jumped on the Gray train early and have benefited from all of his scores bar one, but after his performance on the weekend and Rocky's form I'm a bit worried about what he'll average from here. I'm anticipating maybe a 90 average from here if Hinkley plays him as a forward pocket.

Would it be crazy to 'slingshot' him to Danger this round?

Cheers

Hi dyii,
technically you can't slingshot him to Danger, as the slingshot manouvre requires the player coming in to have already had his bye.
If you have a firm belief that Gray really drops off from here, then getting rid of him might be wise. Against that, get past this week, and he's a solid citizen to carry through the MBR's, even if he is a 90 player.
I'd only be doing it if it was more than hunch, otherwise, I'd be utilising him through the MBR's, and finding other problems to fix.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks Rows for the advice ... worked out pretty well
Next mission is McDonald but fall short of using Murray straight out.
18 trades. Do I go again and bring him in via one up one down?
Crowden will be dropped this week. Is he worth trading? Cannot see him getting back in.

Always happy to help, Slam.
One up, one down sounds good.
I also have Crowden, but have decided to keep him as a FD2P, as I believe he will get back in at some stage, and his price doesn't offer much value in trading him out.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,
Two questions for me this week, first one is around Buddy. Assuming Buddy plays each game up to the Swans bye, what would he need to average to be a worthwhile selection?
I am thinking of selecting him due to his good draw with the hope and view he scores well and goes up in value and is a trade to a C Oliver, J Kelly, T Greene type in rd 14.

Secondly, do you have any thoughts around selecting premiums from teams that are clearly not going to make finals? My concern is a player like L Neale / M Walters from Freo may be negatively affected with Freo being out of the finals hunt either through not playing through a niggle / early surgery or by the same happening to players around them (e.g. Sandi not playing).

Hi siwel,
you must be sitting on a bundle of trades, to be considering a little 4 game jump like that.
Buddy faces a biggish B/E of 136, so that's going to temper your price rises in the first little bit.
I think if I was considering a move like this, being so short term, I'd want around a 140 average. Anything less than that, and you just aren't getting close to the return 2 trades should bring, and even at 140 you falling a little short.
I'd only seriously consider it, if you have 17-18+ trades left, otherwise I'd forget it. The other problem becomes, if he hits that 140 average for 4 games, will you have the cahunies to trade him out?!