Opinion Questions For Rowsus

[Rowsus]

Thanks so much for this! really appreciate it.

It's kind of annoying that I've actually 80% made my mind about not going Lloyd for a number of reasons.

From my point of view, there are a couple of factors that influence how a half-back/extra defender down back scores.

(1) Strength of opposition midfield
(2) Quality of opposition small defenders and the pressure they apply
(3) Contested marking ability of opposition key defenders

Looking at his previous tons, Fremantle, Lions, St Kilda, West Coast (No JJK, Darling) all somewhat resemble the above factors, with Hawthorn being the only outlier.

Looking ahead Richmond, Geelong, North all have exceptionally strong key forwards with capable pressure forwards and are just naturally tough oppositions. The earliest I'd be prepared to trade Lloyd in would be round 18 against the Suns is probably too deep into the season.

At this stage, I'm simply not prepared to pay 550k to close a POD who is likely to take another month or so to start scoring well. So currently I'm ready to bet against Lloyd, although VERY unwillingly as he's definitely still highly likely to keep scoring well.

Regardless, like you said, Savage/Rockliff/Wingard are very shaky. Wingard I'm actually quite bullish on, Rockliff is actually my M9, so not too concerned about that either. But as you mentioned, Savage poses a huge problem. I was extremely close to trading him out last week for Hurley(35%)/Andrews(25%)/Crisp (40%) but decided not to in the end as I had 19 players. At this stage with another 110+ score under Crisp's belt, part of me wish I had taken the extra 70 ish points last week and no having to worry about Savage.

Another question I have is how many trades I should prepare for injuries. I think the answer to this would depend on how far into the season we're. I will have 1 trade spare in a few rounds after trading in donuts/finishing up with trading in premiums. However, I would have 150k ish and Austin along with 1 trade. If this is round 19/20 we're talking about, and assuming I'm still somewhat in contention, do you think I should keep the last trade for the final few rounds just in case I have a donut, or just go all in to allow for a 7-9-2-7 full premium loopholing set?

Sorry for the long reply, thanks!!

Always happy to help.
Reading your reply, it sounds like your thinking is sound, and you are pretty much "in the zone"!
At this stage, I'd be pencilling in 2 trades for injury, and obviously that falls to one, as we get deeper into the season.
As to potentially using that last injury trade in say Round 19 or 20, I think you have to assess that at the time. If your loopholes are working, you hang onto the trade, if you are leaking points, you go all in.
Good luck, I will be following your progress with interest!

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

I had planned to trade Cole to Franklin (via Sicily), however Treloar has put a spanner in the works. Would you prefer to go ahead with this trade and have Ahern as cover for Treloar this week, or trade Treloar to Cripps/Neale but have Cole on-field for another week? I'm torn on which way to go.

Is Franklin fully training yet? Not sure if he is a must have, lucky against the eagles to get to 90.

Cripps has lowest breakeven and high ceiling, looks a must have. Neale 2nd preferred and playing brisbane.

Just my opinion until Rowsus online.

Hi Seedsman,
let's break it down to a simple sum.
What is greater?
The difference between Cripps/Neale and Ahern
or
The difference between Franklin and Cole?

I would think the difference is greater in the top one, so I'd be fixing Treloar this week.

 

[Rowsus]

Apologies to Rowsus as this is the second post in his space, although, appreciate he welcomes many opinions which is an amazing quality.

I share your feeling towards forwards, wingard, de goey, brayshaw type players not proven yet. Have Guelfi to upgrade and can only afford those types.

Firstly, midfield is the engine room and would go best player in that group, unless an alternative gives you a quality proven premium up forward. Unfortunately I would be Kelly 1st and Neale 2nd and Neale does not solve your forward selection.

Second, Fritsch is playing well and has three easier games to come, does he need to be traded so quickly.

Thirdly, I have Hurley and Savage and would rather Simpson or maybe Lloyd. However, Webster I think sits above those value fwds you are looking at and recent form suggests better than Hurley/Savage for me and not too dissimilar to Simpson/LLoyd. I will be solving my issue with Webster if he puts a good score in.

Kelly is my preferred this week and with another downgrade in next week, Fritsch to Webster. Otherwise Neale this week and once Webster bottoms then Fritsch to Webster which potn could work given cash consideration.

No need to ever apologise, GFB. We're all here to help each other, so the more minds looking at a situation the better. I'm better suited to some scenarios, and other are better suited to ones i may not excel in, so it's always great to have experienced Coaches adding their opinion. Thanks for helping out!

 

[Couch Coach]

CC,
sometimes we can get too cute, when faced with a problem, and we end up creating a bigger problem.
The way I look at it is, Treloar was filling a solid M5/6 in most teams. Most teams, particularly those outside the top 1,000, usually end up with 2 or 3 M8's. You really want to avoid getting cute with your Treloar replacement, and ending up with another M8. Right now you have Coniglio, who in my opinion will concede points to anyone lucky enough to have a 105 M8, and you have Dusty, and we just don't know where he is at. If you get cute, and try and get a value replacement, to open some cash for fixing your F5, you might end up with another 100/game player, and an F5 that's not much better than Fritsch anyway. The very definition of 2 wasted trades.
Your M5/6 is usually one of your top 10 guys. I wouldn't taking risks with that position, I'd be going as safe as you can. Potentially a poor decision chasing value might cost you a 115 M5, and maybe get you a 5 or 10 point improvement in your F5. Potentially a loss on the deal!
Keep it simple, get the best you can for Treloar. You are really hamstrung by having no M/F connection, which gives you no flexibilty to make for an easy downgrade his week. You definitely need to get a hold of some cash!
I put it to you, if you have League success in your heart, make the one trade this week. If you want to see how high you climb, you need to make a sacrifice, and grab some cash this week! That would involve "boning" one of your M4/5/6/7 down to Battle, freeing up some cash to do some upgrades this week and next week.
If you go the one trade option, it is likely given your lack of dollars, that you toss up Gaff and Selwood. Just to throw one in there, don't totally discount JPK.

Good luck, I hope you jump the right way!

Thank you Rowsus,

I have never been this high before and I really want to see where I can finish up.

I appreciate your (and others) comments.

I am now thinking:
- Holman to Redman (via J Smith) or a DPP donut (B Daniels)
- Treloar to best mid option ($786K+ to spend)

Thank you again for your advice.

Regards,

CC

 

[blue dreamer]

Thank you Rowsus,

I have never been this high before and I really want to see where I can finish up.

I appreciate your (and others) comments.

I am now thinking:
- Holman to Redman (via J Smith) or a DPP donut (B Daniels)
- Treloar to best mid option ($786K+ to spend)

Thank you again for your advice.

Regards,

CC

Hey CC Redman is out for 6-8 weeks according to the injury report.

 

[Couch Coach]

Hey CC Redman is out for 6-8 weeks according to the injury report.

Thanks, on to the next downgrade candidate.

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks, on to the next downgrade candidate.

I think you have 3 choices:
Holman to Crowden as a FD to play later on. Freo have the best loop holing Draw.
Holman to Daniels (GWS) as he's the best cheapest M/F FD.
Under performing FWD to Battle.
Not easy choices to make!

 

[stephen]

Thanks, on to the next downgrade candidate.

I think you have 3 choices:
Holman to Crowden as a FD to play later on. Freo have the best loop holing Draw.
Holman to Daniels (GWS) as he's the best cheapest M/F FD.
Under performing FWD to Battle.
Not easy choices to make!

Could go blind on Narkle?

 

[Couch Coach]

I think you have 3 choices:
Holman to Crowden as a FD to play later on. Freo have the best loop holing Draw.
Holman to Daniels (GWS) as he's the best cheapest M/F FD.
Under performing FWD to Battle.
Not easy choices to make!

Thanks Rowsus (and Stephen).

I'm not sold on Battle.
Narkle has Geelong's midfield to contend with.

Holman (to me is the weakest link) given I have a MF link so I like Holman out to Crowden (FRE), Daniels (GWS) or even Dawson (GCS).

Ummm???

Thank you again,

CC

 

[Tamuhawk]

Hi Rowsus

I currently have Sicily/Keeffe/Brander all stuck in defence. Originally I was going to trade Guelfi to Joel Smith by pushing Brander/Keeffe to the fwd line. (My other trade is going to be Treloar to Josh Kelly.) However with Tim Smith being omitted I will have no cover in my fwd line. Do you think it is better to trade him off and keep Guelfi instead for cover and loop him at F6/F7 with Petracca starting from next week for a few more weeks as he makes a bit more cash? The plan later would be to turn Crossley to a donut and Guelfi to an M/F I can afford once they both make me a bit more cash.

 

[MC's Mix]

Risking Riewoldt to loop with Dixon could be an effective strategy as well. He's very cheap! It would leave a bit of cash spare to utilise if you got another injury as well.

Did anyone take the risk?! Of course I didn't...

 

[THCLT]

Hi Rowsus,

Hope you'll be OK with the new layout.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus

I currently have Sicily/Keeffe/Brander all stuck in defence. Originally I was going to trade Guelfi to Joel Smith by pushing Brander/Keeffe to the fwd line. (My other trade is going to be Treloar to Josh Kelly.) However with Tim Smith being omitted I will have no cover in my fwd line. Do you think it is better to trade him off and keep Guelfi instead for cover and loop him at F6/F7 with Petracca starting from next week for a few more weeks as he makes a bit more cash? The plan later would be to turn Crossley to a donut and Guelfi to an M/F I can afford once they both make me a bit more cash.

Hi Tam,
just a quick reply. Sorry, pressed for time.
I believe T Smith will be back, but whether the timing suits you is questionable. I think he'll be a better scorer than Guelfi, and Guelfi doesn't have that much more to make. Timing is everything in this game, so possibly boning T Smith and keeping Guelfi does suit your purposes better.

 

[Rowsus]

Did anyone take the risk?! Of course I didn't...

I wouldn't be too upset. JRoo had career high Marks, and near career high possessions. He won't do that every week!
Yes, you missed a good score, but see how it looks by Round 18!

 

[Tamuhawk]

Thanks Rowsus. That's all I needed.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus,

Hope you'll be OK with the new layout.

To be honest, I'm having a little trouble navigating.
And I can't get it to work on my phone much, but that is probably my phone! (An old iphone 4)

 

[MC's Mix]

I wouldn't be too upset. JRoo had career high Marks, and near career high possessions. He won't do that every week!
Yes, you missed a good score, but see how it looks by Round 18!

Ha no, it was said tongue-in-cheek. I can however see him averaging 90-odd from here, which would have been good value for those with limited funds.

 

[MC's Mix]

Hey Row,
3 trades left and going for highest overall position. My team is set, though I (along with most) have to deal with Heeney and Fyfe out this week.

Lloyd, Sicily, Crisp, Howe, Laird, Rance (Rice, Murphy)
Titch, Fyfe, Cripps, Neale, Danger, Bont, Coniglio, Rocky (Ahern, Giro, Barry)
Gawn, Goldy (Olango)
Heeney, Gray, Menegola, Smith, McLean, DeGoey (T Smith, Keeffe)

My cash is limited (33k), and I feel as if I have to trade out Fyfe this week to keep afloat. My cover is abysmal and I'm in huge danger of copping donuts in the coming weeks if I'm not careful...

My gut feeling is that I use one of Smith/Ahern (if named) to cover Heeney, and trade Fyfe to generate a touch of cash and alleviate a major problem for 4 weeks, conceding that I probably won't get him back in my side.

JPK, Selwood and Gaff are the three I'm mainly considering, leaving me with 64k, 90k and 89k respectively. Otherwise I close the Oliver POD, or chase a Pendles/Adams/Sidebottom/Zorko/Merrett/Parker type?

As always, would love to hear your thoughts.

 

[Adrenaline]

hi rowsus

i was hoping if you can discuss the best replacement for fyfe out of neale, jkelly, jpk, selwood, neale

i was also hoping you can provide your opinion about lloyd. where do you think he averages from here on and do you think paying 570k is a worthy trade?

thanks in advance

 

[Prochard]

Hey Rowsus,

I'm back again! Sorry but I have a few more tricky questions

Just back on Lloyd...I actually can afford him now if I were to trade Fyfe out. I'm still not 100% sure on Fyfe, if its 3 weeks I'd certainly keep him, 4 weeks still leaning on keeping him 5 weeks probably wanting to trade him.

I currently have 9 mids including him, so it's just a matter of moving Rockliff on field M8 with Ahern as M9. I really do not want to trade Fyfe because I'd be using up a trade I saved for the finals. Considering I have at least +1 player in each position with good job security.

Anyways, my questions are:
(1) What do you Lloyd averaging at how many games for the rest of the season
(2) How much value do you see in trading Fyfe if it's 4/5 weeks in a point sense? Do you think he will back this season at all?

Thanks!