Thanks so much for this! really appreciate it.
It's kind of annoying that I've actually 80% made my mind about not going Lloyd for a number of reasons.
From my point of view, there are a couple of factors that influence how a half-back/extra defender down back scores.
(1) Strength of opposition midfield
(2) Quality of opposition small defenders and the pressure they apply
(3) Contested marking ability of opposition key defenders
Looking at his previous tons, Fremantle, Lions, St Kilda, West Coast (No JJK, Darling) all somewhat resemble the above factors, with Hawthorn being the only outlier.
Looking ahead Richmond, Geelong, North all have exceptionally strong key forwards with capable pressure forwards and are just naturally tough oppositions. The earliest I'd be prepared to trade Lloyd in would be round 18 against the Suns is probably too deep into the season.
At this stage, I'm simply not prepared to pay 550k to close a POD who is likely to take another month or so to start scoring well. So currently I'm ready to bet against Lloyd, although VERY unwillingly as he's definitely still highly likely to keep scoring well.
Regardless, like you said, Savage/Rockliff/Wingard are very shaky. Wingard I'm actually quite bullish on, Rockliff is actually my M9, so not too concerned about that either. But as you mentioned, Savage poses a huge problem. I was extremely close to trading him out last week for Hurley(35%)/Andrews(25%)/Crisp (40%) but decided not to in the end as I had 19 players. At this stage with another 110+ score under Crisp's belt, part of me wish I had taken the extra 70 ish points last week and no having to worry about Savage.
Another question I have is how many trades I should prepare for injuries. I think the answer to this would depend on how far into the season we're. I will have 1 trade spare in a few rounds after trading in donuts/finishing up with trading in premiums. However, I would have 150k ish and Austin along with 1 trade. If this is round 19/20 we're talking about, and assuming I'm still somewhat in contention, do you think I should keep the last trade for the final few rounds just in case I have a donut, or just go all in to allow for a 7-9-2-7 full premium loopholing set?
Sorry for the long reply, thanks!!
It's kind of annoying that I've actually 80% made my mind about not going Lloyd for a number of reasons.
From my point of view, there are a couple of factors that influence how a half-back/extra defender down back scores.
(1) Strength of opposition midfield
(2) Quality of opposition small defenders and the pressure they apply
(3) Contested marking ability of opposition key defenders
Looking at his previous tons, Fremantle, Lions, St Kilda, West Coast (No JJK, Darling) all somewhat resemble the above factors, with Hawthorn being the only outlier.
Looking ahead Richmond, Geelong, North all have exceptionally strong key forwards with capable pressure forwards and are just naturally tough oppositions. The earliest I'd be prepared to trade Lloyd in would be round 18 against the Suns is probably too deep into the season.
At this stage, I'm simply not prepared to pay 550k to close a POD who is likely to take another month or so to start scoring well. So currently I'm ready to bet against Lloyd, although VERY unwillingly as he's definitely still highly likely to keep scoring well.
Regardless, like you said, Savage/Rockliff/Wingard are very shaky. Wingard I'm actually quite bullish on, Rockliff is actually my M9, so not too concerned about that either. But as you mentioned, Savage poses a huge problem. I was extremely close to trading him out last week for Hurley(35%)/Andrews(25%)/Crisp (40%) but decided not to in the end as I had 19 players. At this stage with another 110+ score under Crisp's belt, part of me wish I had taken the extra 70 ish points last week and no having to worry about Savage.
Another question I have is how many trades I should prepare for injuries. I think the answer to this would depend on how far into the season we're. I will have 1 trade spare in a few rounds after trading in donuts/finishing up with trading in premiums. However, I would have 150k ish and Austin along with 1 trade. If this is round 19/20 we're talking about, and assuming I'm still somewhat in contention, do you think I should keep the last trade for the final few rounds just in case I have a donut, or just go all in to allow for a 7-9-2-7 full premium loopholing set?
Sorry for the long reply, thanks!!
Reading your reply, it sounds like your thinking is sound, and you are pretty much "in the zone"!
At this stage, I'd be pencilling in 2 trades for injury, and obviously that falls to one, as we get deeper into the season.
As to potentially using that last injury trade in say Round 19 or 20, I think you have to assess that at the time. If your loopholes are working, you hang onto the trade, if you are leaking points, you go all in.
Good luck, I will be following your progress with interest!