Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

[Manikato1]

I agree that those two are both underpriced and I'll be starting Danger as well as Fyfe if Danger is a forward otherwise I'll only start Danger. Fyfe is underpriced for sure but he's almost guaranteed to miss games through injury/suspension. My current midfield is Titch, Fyfe, J Kelly, Neale, Yeo and Dusty (very tentatively), Fyfe could also take Neale's spot if Danger isn't a forward.

I also think Macrae and Cripps are going to be overpriced heading into next year and I expect both to drop off from their average (as I do with Titch but less so and I trust him more). Yeo is a guy who had a peak year but his 24 disposals a game average shows me has the capacity to become a super premium if he gets those numbers up.

This is the issue with Fyfe and why I probably won't start him. He played 21 games in 2017 but apart from that has missed 4+ games every season for ages.

 

[Prochard]

I agree that those two are both underpriced and I'll be starting Danger as well as Fyfe if Danger is a forward otherwise I'll only start Danger. Fyfe is underpriced for sure but he's almost guaranteed to miss games through injury/suspension. My current midfield is Titch, Fyfe, J Kelly, Neale, Yeo and Dusty (very tentatively), Fyfe could also take Neale's spot if Danger isn't a forward.

I also think Macrae and Cripps are going to be overpriced heading into next year and I expect both to drop off from their average (as I do with Titch but less so and I trust him more). Yeo is a guy who had a peak year but his 24 disposals a game average shows me has the capacity to become a super premium if he gets those numbers up.

Why do you think Macrae and Cripps will be overpriced?

 

[pizza safety]

Why do you think Macrae and Cripps will be overpriced?

I just think both of their seasons were far ahead of their previous best seasons and I don't necessarily trust that they will be able to back it up. I expect both to average well but I think Cripps will drop 5-10 points and Macrae will drop about the same. I started Cripps this year but I think his game style is gruelling and I think he might end up playing with knocks during the year and that could hinder his performance. Mind you Cripps's season came off his first full preseason and he usually performs at an elite level during the 2nd half of seasons in years gone by so if he has a great preseason he might have a similar year. That being said even last year he dominated even more in the 2nd half of the year (it's a serious trend with him), so at an expensive price I'll probably pick him up at his bye hoping that he'll do what he always does. I also traded Macrae in after R6 as my first mid premo but I reckon he's too expensive to start next year. I reckon Kelly, Fyfe, Oliver if fit and Neale offer better value


Cripps average in last 6 games of 2015: 104.3 season average: 97.7
Cripps average in last 8 games of 2016: 124.4 season average: 107.6
2017: N/A
Cripps average in last 7 games of 2018: 128.4 season average: 119.4

 

[Prochard]

I just think both of their seasons were far ahead of their previous best seasons and I don't necessarily trust that they will be able to back it up. I expect both to average well but I think Cripps will drop 5-10 points and Macrae will drop about the same. I started Cripps this year but I think his game style is gruelling and I think he might end up playing with knocks during the year and that could hinder his performance. Mind you Cripps's season came off his first full preseason and he usually performs at an elite level during the 2nd half of seasons in years gone by so if he has a great preseason he might have a similar year. That being said even last year he dominated even more in the 2nd half of the year (it's a serious trend with him), so at an expensive price I'll probably pick him up at his bye hoping that he'll do what he always does. I also traded Macrae in after R6 as my first mid premo but I reckon he's too expensive to start next year. I reckon Kelly, Fyfe, Oliver if fit and Neale offer better value


Cripps average in last 6 games of 2015: 104.3 season average: 97.7
Cripps average in last 8 games of 2016: 124.4 season average: 107.6
2017: N/A
Cripps average in last 7 games of 2018: 128.4 season average: 119.4

People said the same about both Dangerfield and Selwood before 2016 season or even dozens of inside mids of the last 5-10 years. I think there is some merit behind this in theory, but just out of curiosity is there anything substantial to back this up?

I have no hesitation in picking these players that have gradually built up average with natural progression even if they just had a breakout year.

Both are on my list and quite high up, but both are on the verge of just missing out on the 5-6 spots I have for premo mids.

 

[Prochard]

Also have a little bit of interest in Jacob Hopper, but always hard to justify these type of selections

 

[Darkie]

I agree that those two are both underpriced and I'll be starting Danger as well as Fyfe if Danger is a forward otherwise I'll only start Danger. Fyfe is underpriced for sure but he's almost guaranteed to miss games through injury/suspension. My current midfield is Titch, Fyfe, J Kelly, Neale, Yeo and Dusty (very tentatively), Fyfe could also take Neale's spot if Danger isn't a forward.

I also think Macrae and Cripps are going to be overpriced heading into next year and I expect both to drop off from their average (as I do with Titch but less so and I trust him more). Yeo is a guy who had a peak year but his 24 disposals a game average shows me has the capacity to become a super premium if he gets those numbers up.

I think I’m with you on most of the above and the other names mentioned in your next post.

Personally I don’t plan to pay full price for guys like Mitchell, and maybe Gawn/Grundy, so I need captain options and both Fyfe and Danger provide excellent ones. I would pick them (as things stand) even ex that, but it’s a bit of cream for those two selections.

I also tend to agree that guys like Macrae and Cripps will likely score well, but worse than last year. A lot needs to go well to have the type of seasons they did, and I just think the odds are that things won’t go quite as well (eg role, knocks/injuries, attention) next year.

Both are young enough to have some natural progression potential, and I think Macrae had a low score due to an injury game, but I see lots of appealing options in the midfield next year, so they’re more upgrade targets than starters as I’m currently thinking about it.

 

[stephen]

People said the same about both Dangerfield and Selwood before 2016 season or even dozens of inside mids of the last 5-10 years. I think there is some merit behind this in theory, but just out of curiosity is there anything substantial to back this up?

I have no hesitation in picking these players that have gradually built up average with natural progression even if they just had a breakout year.

Both are on my list and quite high up, but both are on the verge of just missing out on the 5-6 spots I have for premo mids.

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2014-chasing-last-years-points.926/

I think the regression of players who improved 20+ points is close to a golden rule. There will always be exceptions and good luck to those who want to back players in but the odds are against and the price means the upside is far outweighed by downside, even factoring in c scores, IMHO.

 

[Prochard]

https://supercoachscores.com/threads/2014-chasing-last-years-points.926/

I think the regression of players who improved 20+ points is close to a golden rule. There will always be exceptions and good luck to those who want to back players in but the odds are against and the price means the upside is far outweighed by downside, even factoring in c scores, IMHO.

20+ rule is more about players receiving opposition attention I reckon. Don’t think there’s much relevance to this.

 

[lavenderbandit]

My current thoughts are backed by no analysis, but i am going to try and think a little more along the lines not picking past grests and focus more on the next generation. Im not necessarily trying to pick breakout players either. I am sure this will change but the time i pick my team, but danger fyfe selwood martin pendles types may not make my team.

I will lean more towards Josh Kelly, Oliver, Cripps, Tictch, Mills, Brayshaw, taranto hopper types etc.

Reason is i think i over filled my team last year with guys who did well previously and missed the next genrration, probably because i have played about 5 seasons now. Perhaps not that big a deal, but gonna try something a little different, because I can. How long until SC opens???

 

[pizza safety]

People said the same about both Dangerfield and Selwood before 2016 season or even dozens of inside mids of the last 5-10 years. I think there is some merit behind this in theory, but just out of curiosity is there anything substantial to back this up?

I have no hesitation in picking these players that have gradually built up average with natural progression even if they just had a breakout year.

Both are on my list and quite high up, but both are on the verge of just missing out on the 5-6 spots I have for premo mids.

I can think of players like Viney and Fyfe who play gruelling footy and get injured fairly regularly, but I wasn't saying he would get injured and that he'd miss games but that he'd cop knocks that slow him down, the type of injury that we rarely hear about and that Dusty seems to get yearly. Can we know for sure this happens to highly contested players? probably not. We can see that JPK has had worse seasons and better seasons and the same with Selwood, why this happens nobody knows. I feel like inside players aren't getting injured more per se (also because they often don't run as much as other midfielders) but are getting more beaten down by playing footy.

 

[pizza safety]

I think I’m with you on most of the above and the other names mentioned in your next post.

Personally I don’t plan to pay full price for guys like Mitchell, and maybe Gawn/Grundy, so I need captain options and both Fyfe and Danger provide excellent ones. I would pick them (as things stand) even ex that, but it’s a bit of cream for those two selections.

I also tend to agree that guys like Macrae and Cripps will likely score well, but worse than last year. A lot needs to go well to have the type of seasons they did, and I just think the odds are that things won’t go quite as well (eg role, knocks/injuries, attention) next year.

Both are young enough to have some natural progression potential, and I think Macrae had a low score due to an injury game, but I see lots of appealing options in the midfield next year, so they’re more upgrade targets than starters as I’m currently thinking about it.

Titch is the one I plan on paying full price on because he's backed it up and his consistency makes me truly believe that he can do it again this year, even if he drops in price a little bit.

 

[freowho]

Definitely possible but who do you think offers better value relative to their ceiling? I always thought he had the potential to play a season like he did and I wasn't surprised when it happened, I get that it stands out as an obscurity but he is also a special talent. At his price it's highly unlikely he performs below it and a 110 average could be easily achieved given his averages read 105, 108 and 119 in the three preceding seasons.

The question on Dusty has never been his talent but his fitness. He is not a naturally gifted runner and doesn't find it easy to get to contest after contest. He played forward a lot in last quarters this year which would suggest his fitness deteriorated. I tend to think he had his spike year.

 

[freowho]

I can think of players like Viney and Fyfe who play gruelling footy and get injured fairly regularly, but I wasn't saying he would get injured and that he'd miss games but that he'd cop knocks that slow him down, the type of injury that we rarely hear about and that Dusty seems to get yearly. Can we know for sure this happens to highly contested players? probably not. We can see that JPK has had worse seasons and better seasons and the same with Selwood, why this happens nobody knows. I feel like inside players aren't getting injured more per se (also because they often don't run as much as other midfielders) but are getting more beaten down by playing footy.

As much as there will always be good and bad supercoach players there is a fair bit of randomness in what a player scores. Because we are keeping such a close eye on supercoach scores it seems like a 118 year is so much better than a 110 year yet the player's 110 year could still be a good "football" year.

 

[freowho]

My current thoughts are backed by no analysis, but i am going to try and think a little more along the lines not picking past grests and focus more on the next generation. Im not necessarily trying to pick breakout players either. I am sure this will change but the time i pick my team, but danger fyfe selwood martin pendles types may not make my team.

I will lean more towards Josh Kelly, Oliver, Cripps, Tictch, Mills, Brayshaw, taranto hopper types etc.

Reason is i think i over filled my team last year with guys who did well previously and missed the next genrration, probably because i have played about 5 seasons now. Perhaps not that big a deal, but gonna try something a little different, because I can. How long until SC opens???

There were plenty of coaches this year clinging to the glory days of Pendles, Selwood and Ablett but the reality is very few players maintain that high scoring once they get to 29+ years of age. It's worth a risk on the other lines where Simpson, Enright, Hodge etc have shown they can still score well enough but rarely happens in the mids where you need those 110+ scores.

 

[Prochard]

I can think of players like Viney and Fyfe who play gruelling footy and get injured fairly regularly, but I wasn't saying he would get injured and that he'd miss games but that he'd cop knocks that slow him down, the type of injury that we rarely hear about and that Dusty seems to get yearly. Can we know for sure this happens to highly contested players? probably not. We can see that JPK has had worse seasons and better seasons and the same with Selwood, why this happens nobody knows. I feel like inside players aren't getting injured more per se (also because they often don't run as much as other midfielders) but are getting more beaten down by playing footy.

So are you planning to just avoid inside mids in general or?

 

[pizza safety]

So are you planning to just avoid inside mids in general or?

No of course not I'm just saying I think it will be tough for Cripps to back up last years score and I think he will average 5-10 points below that figure, and like I said he actually scores significantly better in the second half of the year so he's especially unlikely to deliver on next years price in the first half of the year. I could be wrong but I just reckon he and Macrae will drop off a by about 5-10 and will score similarly to players who are cheaper including Fyfe it fit, Oliver, Neale and J Kelly.

 

[pizza safety]

As much as there will always be good and bad supercoach players there is a fair bit of randomness in what a player scores. Because we are keeping such a close eye on supercoach scores it seems like a 118 year is so much better than a 110 year yet the player's 110 year could still be a good "football" year.

Yeah and thats my exact point I won't pay for a guy priced at that amount when I can see a guy priced at 110-115 who I think could just as easily average 120, i.e. Kelly, Oliver or Neale

 

[pizza safety]

The question on Dusty has never been his talent but his fitness. He is not a naturally gifted runner and doesn't find it easy to get to contest after contest. He played forward a lot in last quarters this year which would suggest his fitness deteriorated. I tend to think he had his spike year.

Yeah no doubt and he always gets niggling injuries throughout a season. I still reckon he's more likely to average 110+ than anyone cheaper than him, as far as I can tell. Maybe Taranto might be a better option relative to his price but we shall see

 

[Prochard]

No of course not I'm just saying I think it will be tough for Cripps to back up last years score and I think he will average 5-10 points below that figure, and like I said he actually scores significantly better in the second half of the year so he's especially unlikely to deliver on next years price in the first half of the year. I could be wrong but I just reckon he and Macrae will drop off a by about 5-10 and will score similarly to players who are cheaper including Fyfe it fit, Oliver, Neale and J Kelly.

Clayton Oliver increased his average by 41 points last year, then increased his average again this year. Him and Cripps are the same type of player, why does your rule exclude Oliver but include Cripps?

Same with Kelly and Macrae, same type of player, similar pattern of upwards scoring trend. Kelly maintained his average, why can't Macrae?

For me this 20+ rule has alot of flaws and really isn't reliable.

I think there are downsides of the Macrae selection too, but as of Cripps, barring injuries, I just can't see him scoring anything less than 115. I'd say Cripps is just as likely to average 125 as he is to average 115.

 

[pizza safety]

Clayton Oliver increased his average by 41 points last year, then increased his average again this year. Him and Cripps are the same type of player, why does your rule exclude Oliver but include Cripps?

Same with Kelly and Macrae, same type of player, similar pattern of upwards scoring trend. Kelly maintained his average, why can't Macrae?

For me this 20+ rule has alot of flaws and really isn't reliable.

I think there are downsides of the Macrae selection too, but as of Cripps, barring injuries, I just can't see him scoring anything less than 115. I'd say Cripps is just as likely to average 125 as he is to average 115.

Only because they are slightly cheaper and not much other reason, I expect all of those players to average the same but think that Kelly and Oliver still have more room for growth relative to price.

Edit: I will add I think that Macrae and Cripps are at the peak of high Supercoach scoring, because they've already reached these numbers I see the other two as capable of making up that ground and more attractive at that price. I plan on bringing both in don't worry, it's just my personal prediction that I see Oliver, Neale and Kelly making up ground and therefore better for their price. Although we've seen players back up these scores after break out years we've also seen others like JPK, Rocky and Cotchin drop back off after massive seasons.