Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion
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Champion Data analyses every club’s trade acquisitions and where they fit ahead of the 2019 season
Herald Sun
Sunday, 28 October 1918
18:30
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THE trade and free agency periods are all about improving clubs immediately, whereas the draft is more looking to the future.
So, did your club successfully trade for needs during the October player exchange period and thus improve its list heading into the 2019 season?
Champion Data crunches the numbers.
ADELAIDE
Tyson Stengle was ranked as the No.1 ground ball winner inside 50 in the VFL last season, also ranking No.1 for score involvements of any general forward. Adelaide were already strong at ground level inside 50 last season, ranking third.
BRISBANE
Have been a poor contested possession team since 2004, but Lachie Neale should help improve this, ranking sixth for contested possessions last season. Dayne Beams was an elite goalkicker for a midfielder, but Neale was still impressive rating above average.
CARLTON
Will Setterfield averaged 116 ranking points, 25 disposals, 12 contested possessions and one goal per game in his 2017 season in the NEAFL and should improve the Blues midfield. Mitch McGovern’s marking is his number one strength, rating above average for marks last season. Also showed at the end of the season he could play as an intercepting defender, taking seven intercept marks in his final two matches.
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies midfield is filled with ball winners, ranking as the No.1 team for disposals last season. Beams’ ability to impact the scoreboard is his biggest asset to the Magpies, averaging the sixth-most goals of any midfielder. Jordan Roughead showed during 2013-2015 he could play as a negating key defender.
Dayne Beams will add goalkicking power to Collingwood’s midfield. Picture: Getty
ESSENDON
The Bombers midfield didn’t perform in the opening eight weeks of the season, but were on fire for the remainder of the year, resulting in them winning 10 of their last 14 matches. Dylan Shiel rated above average for disposals, metres gained, score involvements and was an elite score assist player.
FREMANTLE
Ranked 16th for contested possessions last season, losing the sixth best contested possession player in Lachie Neale isn’t ideal. Reece Conca rated poor for contested possessions last season. Jesse Hogan’s main strength is his ability to win the ball around the ground, rating elite for disposals, uncontested possessions, ground ball gets inside 50 and score involvements. Rory Lobb’s best season was in 2016 when he spent the majority of game time as a key forward.
GEELONG
Luke Dahlhaus was an elite forward half pressure player when playing as a permanent small forward to begin his AFL career, and could team up well with Brandon Parfitt who is already an elite forward half pressure player.
GOLD COAST
Corey Ellis, Anthony Miles and George Horlin-Smith will help improve the weakest midfield in the competition. Both Tom Lynch and Steven May rated above average last season and will obviously be significant losses.
GWS GIANTS
The midfield has been their strength for years, but losing Dylan Shiel and Tom Scully will impact the numbers on the outside. Both aren’t high contested possession winners, so this might not impact their ranking as the third best contested possession team last season.
HAWTHORN
Only Tom Mitchell ranked in the top 35 per cent for contested possessions last season, but the addition of Chad Wingard will help matters who ranked in the top 35 per cent last season. Tom Scully will impact their outside game, which has always been a strength of the Hawks.
MELBOURNE
At times last season, Melbourne got opened up defensively, ranking 15th for conceding a goal from an opposition inside 50. May should help this issue, which will free up Max Gawn to be used elsewhere. Jesse Hogan is a loss but the Demons only lost one of five matches that Hogan didn’t play.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Significantly added to their midfield. Jared Polec was rated an above average wingman last year as was Dom Tyson. Aaron Hall’s best year came when he played as a centre bounce midfielder, and Jasper Pittard could become the ball winning defender the club needs.
PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide ranked 16th for contested possession differential from Round 17 onwards last season, and the results showed. Have lost elite contested possession winners in Jared Polec and Chad Wingard who rated above average.
RICHMOND
Gaining Tom Lynch was significant. Over the last two seasons he has rated above average for every measure for a key forward. His best came in 2016, where he averaged three goals per game.
ST KILDA
Dean Kent was an above average goalkicker and rated above average for score involvements. He could add to the Saints’ talented small forward half group of Jade Gresham, Jack Billings and Jack Lonie. Dan Hannebery’s best season came in 2016, where he was a high contested possession winner — an area the Saints ranked 11th last season.
SYDNEY SWANS
Sydney’s midfield struggled at times last season, and the Swans could potentially see Ryan Clarke coming in to help things in the middle. He was drafted as a ball winning centre bounce midfielder, averaging 30 disposals and five clearances in his final TAC Cup season.
WEST COAST
They lose Scott Lycett who was rated as the 18th best ruckman last season, but acquire Tom Hickey who was rated as the seventh best ruckman.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
It was only seven matches at AFL level last season, but on average Sam Lloyd was the No.1 rated wingman and could work alongside Lachie Hunter nicely.
Herald Sun
Sunday, 28 October 1918
18:30
Subscriber only
THE trade and free agency periods are all about improving clubs immediately, whereas the draft is more looking to the future.
So, did your club successfully trade for needs during the October player exchange period and thus improve its list heading into the 2019 season?
Champion Data crunches the numbers.
ADELAIDE
Tyson Stengle was ranked as the No.1 ground ball winner inside 50 in the VFL last season, also ranking No.1 for score involvements of any general forward. Adelaide were already strong at ground level inside 50 last season, ranking third.
BRISBANE
Have been a poor contested possession team since 2004, but Lachie Neale should help improve this, ranking sixth for contested possessions last season. Dayne Beams was an elite goalkicker for a midfielder, but Neale was still impressive rating above average.
CARLTON
Will Setterfield averaged 116 ranking points, 25 disposals, 12 contested possessions and one goal per game in his 2017 season in the NEAFL and should improve the Blues midfield. Mitch McGovern’s marking is his number one strength, rating above average for marks last season. Also showed at the end of the season he could play as an intercepting defender, taking seven intercept marks in his final two matches.
COLLINGWOOD
The Magpies midfield is filled with ball winners, ranking as the No.1 team for disposals last season. Beams’ ability to impact the scoreboard is his biggest asset to the Magpies, averaging the sixth-most goals of any midfielder. Jordan Roughead showed during 2013-2015 he could play as a negating key defender.
Dayne Beams will add goalkicking power to Collingwood’s midfield. Picture: Getty
ESSENDON
The Bombers midfield didn’t perform in the opening eight weeks of the season, but were on fire for the remainder of the year, resulting in them winning 10 of their last 14 matches. Dylan Shiel rated above average for disposals, metres gained, score involvements and was an elite score assist player.
FREMANTLE
Ranked 16th for contested possessions last season, losing the sixth best contested possession player in Lachie Neale isn’t ideal. Reece Conca rated poor for contested possessions last season. Jesse Hogan’s main strength is his ability to win the ball around the ground, rating elite for disposals, uncontested possessions, ground ball gets inside 50 and score involvements. Rory Lobb’s best season was in 2016 when he spent the majority of game time as a key forward.
GEELONG
Luke Dahlhaus was an elite forward half pressure player when playing as a permanent small forward to begin his AFL career, and could team up well with Brandon Parfitt who is already an elite forward half pressure player.
GOLD COAST
Corey Ellis, Anthony Miles and George Horlin-Smith will help improve the weakest midfield in the competition. Both Tom Lynch and Steven May rated above average last season and will obviously be significant losses.
GWS GIANTS
The midfield has been their strength for years, but losing Dylan Shiel and Tom Scully will impact the numbers on the outside. Both aren’t high contested possession winners, so this might not impact their ranking as the third best contested possession team last season.
HAWTHORN
Only Tom Mitchell ranked in the top 35 per cent for contested possessions last season, but the addition of Chad Wingard will help matters who ranked in the top 35 per cent last season. Tom Scully will impact their outside game, which has always been a strength of the Hawks.
MELBOURNE
At times last season, Melbourne got opened up defensively, ranking 15th for conceding a goal from an opposition inside 50. May should help this issue, which will free up Max Gawn to be used elsewhere. Jesse Hogan is a loss but the Demons only lost one of five matches that Hogan didn’t play.
NORTH MELBOURNE
Significantly added to their midfield. Jared Polec was rated an above average wingman last year as was Dom Tyson. Aaron Hall’s best year came when he played as a centre bounce midfielder, and Jasper Pittard could become the ball winning defender the club needs.
PORT ADELAIDE
Port Adelaide ranked 16th for contested possession differential from Round 17 onwards last season, and the results showed. Have lost elite contested possession winners in Jared Polec and Chad Wingard who rated above average.
RICHMOND
Gaining Tom Lynch was significant. Over the last two seasons he has rated above average for every measure for a key forward. His best came in 2016, where he averaged three goals per game.
ST KILDA
Dean Kent was an above average goalkicker and rated above average for score involvements. He could add to the Saints’ talented small forward half group of Jade Gresham, Jack Billings and Jack Lonie. Dan Hannebery’s best season came in 2016, where he was a high contested possession winner — an area the Saints ranked 11th last season.
SYDNEY SWANS
Sydney’s midfield struggled at times last season, and the Swans could potentially see Ryan Clarke coming in to help things in the middle. He was drafted as a ball winning centre bounce midfielder, averaging 30 disposals and five clearances in his final TAC Cup season.
WEST COAST
They lose Scott Lycett who was rated as the 18th best ruckman last season, but acquire Tom Hickey who was rated as the seventh best ruckman.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
It was only seven matches at AFL level last season, but on average Sam Lloyd was the No.1 rated wingman and could work alongside Lachie Hunter nicely.
RE: MELBOURNE
At times last season, Melbourne got opened up defensively, ranking 15th for conceding a goal from an opposition inside 50. May should help this issue, which will free up Max Gawn to be used elsewhere.
I'm just wondering if Gawn will cover less ground, hence run games out better to score more SC pts and be fitter at the end of the season?
At times last season, Melbourne got opened up defensively, ranking 15th for conceding a goal from an opposition inside 50. May should help this issue, which will free up Max Gawn to be used elsewhere.
I'm just wondering if Gawn will cover less ground, hence run games out better to score more SC pts and be fitter at the end of the season?
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This is possible, however I think there is a real likelihood that Gawn will also share the ruck with Preuss in a number of games (maybe not all games, but could depend on match ups) in order to reduce the load. Pre-season will be really interesting to watch to see what the plans may be, but at this stage I am likely to be staying away from Max at his high starting price (possible upgrade target)
If they play both Gawn and Pruess in Rd 1 there is no way I will start Gawn.
There could be an opportunity to bring Gawn in cheaper too if say after 5 or 6 rounds they figure two rucks aren't working and go back to just Gawn and a chop out.... and hence he goes back to regulation Gawn scoring patterns.
There could be an opportunity to bring Gawn in cheaper too if say after 5 or 6 rounds they figure two rucks aren't working and go back to just Gawn and a chop out.... and hence he goes back to regulation Gawn scoring patterns.
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He will be a bit cheaper than Stef and I don't think one will necessarily score better than the other, Goldy is a bit younger. I think Nank is an option but I question if he will improve, he is already big and spends decent time in the ruck but simply doesn't win many hit outs. I think it's partially a tank issue but with other rucks we've tended to see size be their major problem early on, with him I just don't know if he's good enough at jumping haha
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There's just no historically sound way of getting them right. I loved Grundy and wanted to start him with Gawn before the 2018 season but his scores were seriously average when Cox played in 2017 and Buckley came out and said he'd be sharing ruck duties with him. Then he averages 130 with Cox in the team, how could anyone pick that?
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If Gawn and Grundy both perform like they did last year then picking them is probably a necessity because you'll lose all of the points gained from having them as captaincy options and and you'll end up wasting a trade bringing one in, but it's probably unlikely that they both back it up. If these two rucks stay within 5 points of their average and so do all of the other rucks then both will be a necessity. You'd be better off picking a cheaper midfielder and leaving out Titch (if he also stays within 5 points) and bringing him in later because you won't be wasting a trade brining in a player you'll need to have by seasons end.
I prefer Grundy despite the fact his season sticks its head out as far better than any of his previous seasons. He doesn't get injured and is the most talented ruck at a young age I've ever seen. I also see the new rules helping him collecting even more clearances and I don't think that will impact Gawn that much. So Grundy and Goldstein is my early call, I don't see any stepping stones at this stage and I want to avoid stepping stones in general due to their lack of ROI and the trade they use up.
I think we're also going to need one or two extra upgrades than last year due to the amount of overpriced players. Williams (20% discount), Toby Greene (10% discount) and Daniher (10% discount) are all decent value picks and I'll probably be starting Williams and Daniher along with Tim Taranto as my 3 mid pricers or value picks next year. Daniher is a stepping stone I don't mind due to how incredibly cheap he will be, with a small chance of being a keeper, Williams is obvious but I'm not too hot on Greene because he will be about 365k and hasn't shown consistently that he's a top forward (especially if you ignore the 1st half of last year) and is probably going to get suspended.
I prefer Grundy despite the fact his season sticks its head out as far better than any of his previous seasons. He doesn't get injured and is the most talented ruck at a young age I've ever seen. I also see the new rules helping him collecting even more clearances and I don't think that will impact Gawn that much. So Grundy and Goldstein is my early call, I don't see any stepping stones at this stage and I want to avoid stepping stones in general due to their lack of ROI and the trade they use up.
I think we're also going to need one or two extra upgrades than last year due to the amount of overpriced players. Williams (20% discount), Toby Greene (10% discount) and Daniher (10% discount) are all decent value picks and I'll probably be starting Williams and Daniher along with Tim Taranto as my 3 mid pricers or value picks next year. Daniher is a stepping stone I don't mind due to how incredibly cheap he will be, with a small chance of being a keeper, Williams is obvious but I'm not too hot on Greene because he will be about 365k and hasn't shown consistently that he's a top forward (especially if you ignore the 1st half of last year) and is probably going to get suspended.
I'm thinking of not starting Titch. When he got traded to Hawthorn I posted that he would stay in my team for at least the next 5 years but he possibly gets tagged in rnds 3,4 and 5. Jacobs and Selwood are good taggers and St Kilda love a run with player with a few who can do the job. I've already pencilled in Grundy, Danger and Cripps as high priced starting picks so Titch might be an upgrade target. Titch also has the first bye so if I can't get him in early he could be a slingshot player.
Depending on what rookies get placed in the midfield and their pricing I am thinking of going completely left field this year. Four rookies in the mids with a midpricer and then three premiums (but not Tich or Danger more likely Jelly and Cripps). No Gawn or Grundy either. Thinking there could be all sorts of options available in defence and attack. Need to wait until prices drop.
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