Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

[Herbie66]

To figure out his price you do 56.9 x 5555 (the number was 5497 last year and is going up by about 55 each year) and then times 0.9 to account for his 10% discount for playing 7 games or less. His is price is about 284.4k. Last year was his break out year, not an unusual time for a key forward and this year he was playing injured from round 2 onwards until his groin injury turned into OP.

Have previously posted expected prices for a number of players , including defenders , mids ,forwards rucks , forwards pretty sure my formula will be close , or about $ 5,000.00 over.

Only real queries is if Doc will get the full discount and how they price Libba.

 

[Bermi]

did you factor in his discount for playing 7 or less games in a season ?

To figure out his price you do 56.9 x 5555 (the number was 5497 last year and is going up by about 55 each year) and then times 0.9 to account for his 10% discount for playing 7 games or less. His is price is about 284.4k. Last year was his break out year, not an unusual time for a key forward and this year he was playing injured from round 2 onwards until his groin injury turned into OP.

I've read that players who have had groin strains increase the risk of getting it again, as their muscle is weakened. So I'm not confident Daniher will be back averaging his 2017 86 SC pts.
If his groin doesn't bother him, then he is good enough of a player to make some money, but I'm not keen on gambling with KPPs coming back from injury. Unless there are no other options of course

 

[Darkie]

285k is great value for JD if that's the starting price. If he has a solid preseason, I'd start him over Greene. Was considering starting both initially but another interrupted preseason for Greene sounds like a worry.
Bonus that he plays for essendon

I'm keen on Hanners too if he's about 330k. Edit: Just on hanners, saw a presser where he sounded like he had a point to prove. It may be all buzz words and cliches as he's at a new club, but you never know - he could click.

Hanners would likely be in my side if we were picking today. Incredibly cheap for his potential and provides good optionality as a stepping stone/potential M8 if he is fit.

 

[Manikato1]

Could Taranto be another one who keeps forward status and gets more midfield time next year with Shiel leaving? I've got too many forwards on my short list at the moment so not bothered if we lose a few.

I like Taranto. Kick ratio up, CP and UCP up, more inside 50's and clearances. Efficiency down but maybe a result of more inside work and like wise for clangers. Probably not much improvement for tog though.

 

[Philzsay]

Hoping I can get to a couple of Bomber training sessions in Jan/Feb and will hopefully see enough to be able to assess whether I'll use Daniher as a pinch hitter or not.

 

[pizza safety]

I've read that players who have had groin strains increase the risk of getting it again, as their muscle is weakened. So I'm not confident Daniher will be back averaging his 2017 86 SC pts.
If his groin doesn't bother him, then he is good enough of a player to make some money, but I'm not keen on gambling with KPPs coming back from injury. Unless there are no other options of course

I think they are nasty injuries that tend to flare up over and over but I think the majority of players eventually get over them and recover, Joe has already had a very long amount of time to recover. Gray and Lachie Neale bounced back pretty well from groin injuries this year. Mind you I'm certainly no expert on this at all.

 

[Bermi]

I think they are nasty injuries that tend to flare up over and over but I think the majority of players eventually get over them and recover, Joe has already had a very long amount of time to recover. Gray and Lachie Neale bounced back pretty well from groin injuries this year. Mind you I'm certainly no expert on this at all.

Yep, you are right. The chance of Daniher's groin injury, Osteitis Pubis, recurrence is approximately 20% (according to http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/2015-AFL-Injury-Report.pdf ). I'm wondering if recurrence is a bigger problem for taller players, as opposed to the likes of Gray and Lachie Neale, hmmm.

By the way, I stumbled on this website about 'Common AFL Injuries Statistics and in Detail' and thought, being a quiet SC time, some might find it interesting: https://physioworks.com.au/Injuries-Conditions/Activities/afl-injuries

 

[Darkie]

Yep, you are right. The chance of Daniher's groin injury, Osteitis Pubis, recurrence is approximately 20% (according to http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/2015-AFL-Injury-Report.pdf ). I'm wondering if recurrence is a bigger problem for taller players, as opposed to the likes of Gray and Lachie Neale, hmmm.

By the way, I stumbled on this website about 'Common AFL Injuries Statistics and in Detail' and thought, being a quiet SC time, some might find it interesting: https://physioworks.com.au/Injuries-Conditions/Activities/afl-injuries

Very helpful info, thanks for posting!

 

[pizza safety]

Yep, you are right. The chance of Daniher's groin injury, Osteitis Pubis, recurrence is approximately 20% (according to http://www.afl.com.au/staticfile/AFL Tenant/AFL/Files/2015-AFL-Injury-Report.pdf ). I'm wondering if recurrence is a bigger problem for taller players, as opposed to the likes of Gray and Lachie Neale, hmmm.

By the way, I stumbled on this website about 'Common AFL Injuries Statistics and in Detail' and thought, being a quiet SC time, some might find it interesting: https://physioworks.com.au/Injuries-Conditions/Activities/afl-injuries

Good stuff Bermi!

 

[pizza safety]

Peoples thoughts on Fyfe? Seems like you're damned if you start him (because he won't play a full season) and damned if you don't (those who do start him might get a leg up). He's not going to be too expensive.

 

[Herbie66]

Did anyone else hear the proposal for AFL X next season ?

Buddy , Danger , Dusty , Fyfe to select their own sides , all over in 1 day/night at Marvel Stadium.

 

[Herbie66]

Peoples thoughts on Fyfe? Seems like you're damned if you start him (because he won't play a full season) and damned if you don't (those who do start him might get a leg up). He's not going to be too expensive.

With pre-season queries on Mitchell and Oliver , he certainly is on my short list of starting premium mids , SC royalty.

 

[Manikato1]

Peoples thoughts on Fyfe? Seems like you're damned if you start him (because he won't play a full season) and damned if you don't (those who do start him might get a leg up). He's not going to be too expensive.

I probably won't starting him because he misses games but having said that now that Neale is gone and Hogan/Lobb have arrived he will be the main man in the action in the centre of the ground. No roaming up forward etc.

 

[pizza safety]

With pre-season queries on Mitchell and Oliver , he certainly is on my short list of starting premium mids , SC royalty.

I probably won't starting him because he misses games but having said that now that Neale is gone and Hogan/Lobb have arrived he will be the main man in the action in the centre of the ground. No roaming up forward etc.

Yeah I'm leaning towards not starting Mitchell or Oliver, bit of a risk but it could work. I would pick Fyfe instead.

He does miss games but if he starts like he did last year he might be worth having at the start knowing you will probably need to trade him later. I think you're right, he will be spending a little bit less time forward.

 

[BigRuss]

Did anyone else hear the proposal for AFL X next season ?

Buddy , Danger , Dusty , Fyfe to select their own sides , all over in 1 day/night at Marvel Stadium.

No SA or Qld teams? Why am I not surprised . In all seriousness I’d rather watch that then the drivel the AFLX served up this pre season.

 

[stephen]

Fyfe is one of the best c options in the game (huge ceiling, reliable, lots of late games) and comes at a discount. There's a good enough chance he turns into a failed pick due to injury but waiting for that is a painful way to play the game. If you don't start him you are essentially committed to not getting him because he isn't likely to get much cheaper unless/until he gets an on-field injury. So you just watch the big c scores roll in for other teams and wonder why you don't have him and keep reminding yourself that you don't really hope he gets an injury. Painful. A no-brainer pick IMHO.

 

[pizza safety]

Fyfe is one of the best c options in the game (huge ceiling, reliable, lots of late games) and comes at a discount. There's a good enough chance he turns into a failed pick due to injury but waiting for that is a painful way to play the game. If you don't start him you are essentially committed to not getting him because he isn't likely to get much cheaper unless/until he gets an on-field injury. So you just watch the big c scores roll in for other teams and wonder why you don't have him and keep reminding yourself that you don't really hope he gets an injury. Painful. A no-brainer pick IMHO.

I don't think its a painful way to play the game to be honest, some players are just injury prone and it's fair to keep that in mind. Not many super premo's are really injury/suspension prone except for Gawn and Fyfe, so it's not really disabling. My Walters pick this year ignored his injury history and I paid the price. Fyfe has played 9, 19, 18, 18, 5, 21 and 15 games over the last 7 years so if you pick him you should be "expecting" him to miss games. However, I think the points and captaincy option make him worth a trade or a hold if its a one-two week injury. If you don't pick him you might fall behind in the rankings.

 

[Herbie66]

No SA or Qld teams? Why am I not surprised . In all seriousness I’d rather watch that then the drivel the AFLX served up this pre season.

Yeah apparently they asked Walker to pick a side , and he picked all Crows players , so the organisers said sorry we wanted a All Star side ?

 

[Manikato1]

Fyfe is one of the best c options in the game (huge ceiling, reliable, lots of late games) and comes at a discount. There's a good enough chance he turns into a failed pick due to injury but waiting for that is a painful way to play the game. If you don't start him you are essentially committed to not getting him because he isn't likely to get much cheaper unless/until he gets an on-field injury. So you just watch the big c scores roll in for other teams and wonder why you don't have him and keep reminding yourself that you don't really hope he gets an injury. Painful. A no-brainer pick IMHO.

He is one of those glass half full/half empty players for mine. He does have a big ceiling and plays late games but I don't rank him as reliable. If you are going to go with him I think you are correct in that you need to start with him. He did well early this year but got inj at the end of the season when you can least afford trades. Even the year before that when he played 21 games he played inj a fair bit and between rds 6 and 15 only ave 88. When he is on point however then you get real benefit.

 

[pizza safety]

He is one of those glass half full/half empty players for mine. He does have a big ceiling and plays late games but I don't rank him as reliable. If you are going to go with him I think you are correct in that you need to start with him. He did well early this year but got inj at the end of the season when you can least afford trades. Even the year before that when he played 21 games he played inj a fair bit and between rds 6 and 15 only ave 88. When he is on point however then you get real benefit.

I think the selling point for me is he was averaging 123.7 up until his hamstring injury but ended up averaging 113.9, so I can't help but feel he's underpriced again.