Discussion 2019: Super Early Player & SC Game Change Discussion

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I don't think they will have Dusty m/f because CD will want to keep position options open. If he was m/f I think he would be in 99.9% of teams as a forward. As a pure mid he has a lot more competition and is no lock. I don't know how CD calculate "forward time" and FF are not gospel by any stretch but they have him listed as rotating mid/forward in 7 H&A games after rd 13. Time will tell I guess.
How did you find that they listed him as m/f in the games after R13? I also think Danger will not get dpp, I had some time and looked at all the centre bounces against the Demons in the first final and he was in the centre square on 15/17 occasions. Freako had said that his final series would determine his positioning because it was so close and so it looks to be the case that he will be mid only. Im 99% sure based on information I've read and the type of players who get DPP that all they look at is where players line up at centre bounces, it's the only reliable measure of position in an era where all players run to all ends of the ground. Heeney's DPP last year was the perfect example of that. I don't buy into the line of thinking that champion data have an agenda whereby they refuse to allow us gun mid-forwards and I don't see any real motivation, gun players just tend to attend centre bounces and the 35% rule is just a hard number to reach.
 
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I know pretty much for a fact that Dusty will not get forward status, he barely started in the forward line at centre bounces after the first 6 or so games and was at 26% after R13. There was an article after R13 with the following stats:

Player / Midfield Time / Forward Time / Defence Time
Dustin Martin (Rich) 74% / 26%
Elliot Yeo (WCE) 73% / 12% / 15%
Luke Parker (Syd) 63% / 37%
Christian Petracca (Melb) 48% / 52%
Patrick Dangerfield (Geel) 61% / 39%
Jordan de Goey (Coll) 37% / 63%
Robbie Gray (PtA) 44% / 56%

You need 35% to get DPP

Freako said it was very very close heading into the first final with Danger. Parker is an interesting one and it would be nice to know the final stats on Heeney and Bont. Yeo is definitely only a mid next year as well

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/7f444008c6382d188aeaeea3cc30654b
Parker Danger Gray fwd line. Wow
 
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How did you find that they listed him as m/f in the games after R13? I also think Danger will not get dpp, I had some time and looked at all the centre bounces against the Demons in the first final and he was in the centre square on 15/17 occasions. Freako had said that his final series would determine his positioning because it was so close and so it looks to be the case that he will be mid only. Im 99% sure based on information I've read and the type of players who get DPP that all they look at is where players line up at centre bounces, it's the only reliable measure of position in an era where all players run to all ends of the ground. Heeney's DPP last year was the perfect example of that. I don't buy into the line of thinking that champion data have an agenda whereby they refuse to allow us gun mid-forwards and I don't see any real motivation, gun players just tend to attend centre bounces and the 35% rule is just a hard number to reach.
Your info could well be correct. That is why I qualified my post with a ? against the FF positions and how CD work out the dpp positions. CD run the show so I guess they can make any rules they like and make any exceptions. It is my personal opinion only that if, for example, Danger, Dusty, Fyfe and say Bont all met the 35% rule (if that is the criteria) that CD not have them all as m/f. IMO they would make an exception/s.

For the info in FF select Dusty, scroll down to career stats and choose 2018. A table appears with 2018 stats by game and one column is News. Hover over the symbol in the news column and a comments box appears. It often says where they started, who they played on and some other general info. Eg a padlock means he was tagged. In Rd 19 it says tagged by Greenwood
 
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Your info could well be correct. That is why I qualified my post with a ? against the FF positions and how CD work out the dpp positions. CD run the show so I guess they can make any rules they like and make any exceptions. It is my personal opinion only that if, for example, Danger, Dusty, Fyfe and say Bont all met the 35% rule (if that is the criteria) that CD not have them all as m/f. IMO they would make an exception/s.

For the info in FF select Dusty, scroll down to career stats and choose 2018. A table appears with 2018 stats by game and one column is News. Hover over the symbol in the news column and a comments box appears. It often says where they started, who they played on and some other general info. Eg a padlock means he was tagged. In Rd 19 it says tagged by Greenwood
Yeah I understand for sure that that's a possibility if it's close but I just reckon most players we hope are DPP are not playing in the forward line enough, based on what I've gathered from sources and watching the game. I don't think articles would say Danger is at 39% forward time after Round 13, that Fantasy Freako would tweet that finals will determine Dangers position and then that Danger's last game would arbitrarily determine his position when he started in the square 15/17 times . With regards to fanfooty some of their information is false or lazily written, I've seen players barely be tagged and get a lock and other players get tagged more heavily and not get a lock. Also in the demons game, like I said, Danger was in the centre square on 15/17 occasions and on the bench once but fanfooty said he was rotating mid-forward. I actually assumed that meant he was a forward til I went back and watched the tape and found that to be incorrect. I hope that at least two out of Heeney, Bont, Parker and Dunkley get dpp for my sake hahaha. Also 35% is definitely the criteria.
 
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Thoughts on Josh Kelly guys. Pure class and all but will teams really put the clamps on him this year?
They no how damaging he is and no Shiel. I get the feeling he's going to cop it like Sloane does quiet a bit next year and am not sure if he's a great starting pick because of this.
 
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Yeah I understand for sure that that's a possibility if it's close but I just reckon most players we hope are DPP are not playing in the forward line enough, based on what I've gathered from sources and watching the game. I don't think articles would say Danger is at 39% forward time after Round 13, that Fantasy Freako would tweet that finals will determine Dangers position and then that Danger's last game would arbitrarily determine his position when he started in the square 15/17 times . With regards to fanfooty some of their information is false or lazily written, I've seen players barely be tagged and get a lock and other players get tagged more heavily and not get a lock. Also in the demons game, like I said, Danger was in the centre square on 15/17 occasions and on the bench once but fanfooty said he was rotating mid-forward. I actually assumed that meant he was a forward til I went back and watched the tape and found that to be incorrect. I hope that at least two out of Heeney, Bont, Parker and Dunkley get dpp for my sake hahaha. Also 35% is definitely the criteria.
Could Taranto be another one who keeps forward status and gets more midfield time next year with Shiel leaving? I've got too many forwards on my short list at the moment so not bothered if we lose a few.
 
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Thoughts on Josh Kelly guys. Pure class and all but will teams really put the clamps on him this year?
They no how damaging he is and no Shiel. I get the feeling he's going to cop it like Sloane does quiet a bit next year and am not sure if he's a great starting pick because of this.
Kelly is right in the zone for an uber premium breakout. 24 next year, 99 games.
 
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Could Taranto be another one who keeps forward status and gets more midfield time next year with Shiel leaving? I've got too many forwards on my short list at the moment so not bothered if we lose a few.
Yeah I think you're right Freo he is definitely someone worth looking at, he averaged 88 this year with only 20 disposals per game, so he has a fairly high ceiling. Also in his 3rd year and looks to be on track for a break out. I think he should get DPP because he didn't play in the back line and seemed to rotate a lot through the middle and forward line. I would probably pick him at this very early stage if Dunkley isn't DPP next year or if some of the premium players I hope get DPP don't get it.
 
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Thoughts on Josh Kelly guys. Pure class and all but will teams really put the clamps on him this year?
They no how damaging he is and no Shiel. I get the feeling he's going to cop it like Sloane does quiet a bit next year and am not sure if he's a great starting pick because of this.
I think he does get tagged more, he started to get tagged more often as the season went on, but I think he's got the talent to be unaffected by tags as he gets more used to them. It's also a bit difficult to tag him because he rotates to the wing a fair bit and because of GWS's deep midfield (it's still pretty deep). His ceiling is absolutely massive in my opinion so he's completely locked in my side barring some injury.

I'm leaning towards not starting Titch due to some early tags (someone on here convinced me when I thought about it) and then bringing him in asap. Edit: Actually it was Freo
 
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Who is thinking of starting Joe Daniher? I know my team logo suggest bias but at about 285k he could be amazing value if fit.
As long as he plays preseason games he is locked in for me. I love a good forwards rollercoaster. Below are some of the price increases from this year.
Hawkins, round 7 to 20, $132,900
McDonald, round 8 to 15, $108,600
Breust, round 1 to 8, $103,600 and round 13 to 18, $135,400
Reiwoldt, 14 to 22, $253,900
Hogan, 1 to 6, $109,600
Darling, 1 to 11, $185,700
Brown, 4 to 7, $115,000
They are volatile with their scoring but predictable in that if they have a big drop in price they are likely to follow up with a big jump in price. I would only pick one at the bottom of their price cycle, high $300's to low $400's, and a couple of potential high scoring games on the horizon. Given Daniher's low starting price he should see an early spike of some sort. But I would keep a trade in reserve for them and be ready to move them on when they spike. I also have Tom Lynch on my current list of possible starters (should be just above $400k) and would even consider Charlie Curnow and Peter Wright (now that Lynch isn't at Gold Coast).
 
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New rookie rules: Clarke, Mumford free to join club of choice

FORMER Fremantle ruck-forward Zac Clarke is one step closer to joining Essendon, with the AFL ruling him eligible to sign with the Bombers under new rookie rules.

AFL.com.au reported on Tuesday night that Clarke and Essendon were waiting on AFL approval to enable the 101-gamer, who played in the WAFL this year, to join the club and avoid the draft.

It is a similar arrangement that will allow Shane Mumford to come out of retirement and rejoin Greater Western Sydney without the risk of a rival team swooping in the draft.

They have the opportunity to sign as Category A rookies in the pre-season supplemental selection period between December 1 and March 15, after next week's drafts are over.
 
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Who is thinking of starting Joe Daniher? I know my team logo suggest bias but at about 285k he could be amazing value if fit.
Depending on what positions Bont , Danger , Dusty , Parker etc get and if he has a full pre-season think I will be locking him in at F3/F4.

Looks like Tobias will have a slow pre-season , so Joey and JJK look like the 2 under valued forwards to start.
 
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Only if desperate to fill my Fwd line.
(approximately) Averages 64 and multiply by $5000 = $320,000, hmmm.

Year Games Average:
2013 5 50.6
2014 20 59.4
2015 22 60.7
2016 22 68.8
2017 22 86.0
2018 7 56.9
did you factor in his discount for playing 7 or less games in a season ?
To figure out his price you do 56.9 x 5555 (the number was 5497 last year and is going up by about 55 each year) and then times 0.9 to account for his 10% discount for playing 7 games or less. His is price is about 284.4k. Last year was his break out year, not an unusual time for a key forward and this year he was playing injured from round 2 onwards until his groin injury turned into OP.
 
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As long as he plays preseason games he is locked in for me. I love a good forwards rollercoaster. Below are some of the price increases from this year.
Hawkins, round 7 to 20, $132,900
McDonald, round 8 to 15, $108,600
Breust, round 1 to 8, $103,600 and round 13 to 18, $135,400
Reiwoldt, 14 to 22, $253,900
Hogan, 1 to 6, $109,600
Darling, 1 to 11, $185,700
Brown, 4 to 7, $115,000
They are volatile with their scoring but predictable in that if they have a big drop in price they are likely to follow up with a big jump in price. I would only pick one at the bottom of their price cycle, high $300's to low $400's, and a couple of potential high scoring games on the horizon. Given Daniher's low starting price he should see an early spike of some sort. But I would keep a trade in reserve for them and be ready to move them on when they spike. I also have Tom Lynch on my current list of possible starters (should be just above $400k) and would even consider Charlie Curnow and Peter Wright (now that Lynch isn't at Gold Coast).
For me he can be what many hoped Christensen would be this year, a player who can get you points and be a good stepping stone, but there's also the possibility he can be a keeper due to his high potential. Joe is our most talented player at the end of the day, last year was his break out and we basically saw none of him this year because he was injured in round 2 and played injured the next 6 weeks. By Anzac Day I was already saying he is definitely injured because he just wasn't running up and jumping at the ball and his field kicking had deteriorated to an extreme point and it turned out to be the case. The fact he's a key forward means a big jump in price if he has a few good weeks, which is what we want to see.
 

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285k is great value for JD if that's the starting price. If he has a solid preseason, I'd start him over Greene. Was considering starting both initially but another interrupted preseason for Greene sounds like a worry.
Bonus that he plays for essendon :)

I'm keen on Hanners too if he's about 330k. Edit: Just on hanners, saw a presser where he sounded like he had a point to prove. It may be all buzz words and cliches as he's at a new club, but you never know - he could click.
 
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