Position Forwards Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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I think with your age profile you'll get better production out of your list. You've got a middle of the pack age profile, but they've played nearly the 4th or 5th most games each on average. Maybe it's just Cotch, JRoo & Rance lifting it? Your mids aren't traditionally large SC pie stealing players bar Dusty's once off year and I don't think that changes. Cotchin won't improve. Dusty a little? Edwards won't. I think the improvement in scoring will come from your (IMO) more important players, your small forwards in Higgins, Butler & Rioli.
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For anyone considering Boak that isn’t scared off by his age here’s a little bit of a plus minus regarding some knowledge about him:
Travis Boak
(+) will definitely playing more midfield minutes this year. This is highlighted with Wingard and Polec leaving and Ebert now being pushed into a forward role (confirmed by the coaches at the members convention).
(+) very consistent scorer. Although he hasn’t had massive games in the last couple of years, his really bad games are few and far between (11 scores under 70 in his last 87 games)
(+) super durable. He has played 22, 21, 22, 22, 21 games in the last 5 seasons. Missed just 2 home and away games in his last 110.
(+) he was dealing with issues the last 2 years regarding a bad split with his long term girlfriend. There was a lot of rumours he was struggling mentally and the burden of the captaincy was having an effect on him (see Beams improvement when released from the captaincy and freed up). He has all that weight off of his shoulders now and no expectations regarding his role in the team and the team isn’t expect to do well this year.
(-) Doesn’t have a huge ceiling (8 scores 110+ in his last 3 seasons (65 games)).
(-) age is a worry. He is now 30 and although he is durable there are a lot of miles in his legs.
(-) Hasn’t performed as a premium in the last 3 years and it’s been 5 years since he averaged over 100.
(-) Port aren’t expecting to win many games this year. Although this can be a positive as the team often goes the opposite of what many people expect in the last 4-5 years.
If you’re looking for a reliable 85-95 scorer every week and are taking too many risks across other positions in your team then he looks like a good durable, consistent selection. There is upside with his move back into a more midfield orientated role and he did look very fit and score pretty well in JLT games as well.
Travis Boak
(+) will definitely playing more midfield minutes this year. This is highlighted with Wingard and Polec leaving and Ebert now being pushed into a forward role (confirmed by the coaches at the members convention).
(+) very consistent scorer. Although he hasn’t had massive games in the last couple of years, his really bad games are few and far between (11 scores under 70 in his last 87 games)
(+) super durable. He has played 22, 21, 22, 22, 21 games in the last 5 seasons. Missed just 2 home and away games in his last 110.
(+) he was dealing with issues the last 2 years regarding a bad split with his long term girlfriend. There was a lot of rumours he was struggling mentally and the burden of the captaincy was having an effect on him (see Beams improvement when released from the captaincy and freed up). He has all that weight off of his shoulders now and no expectations regarding his role in the team and the team isn’t expect to do well this year.
(-) Doesn’t have a huge ceiling (8 scores 110+ in his last 3 seasons (65 games)).
(-) age is a worry. He is now 30 and although he is durable there are a lot of miles in his legs.
(-) Hasn’t performed as a premium in the last 3 years and it’s been 5 years since he averaged over 100.
(-) Port aren’t expecting to win many games this year. Although this can be a positive as the team often goes the opposite of what many people expect in the last 4-5 years.
If you’re looking for a reliable 85-95 scorer every week and are taking too many risks across other positions in your team then he looks like a good durable, consistent selection. There is upside with his move back into a more midfield orientated role and he did look very fit and score pretty well in JLT games as well.
I like Boak. He's a solid bet to push back towards 95-100 range with more midfield time, the reality is he's a tackle and a kick basically from that level which should come pretty easily if he plays 10-20% more of his time in the midfield, there's nothing physically about him that suggests to me he can't get back close to his prime scoring levels, especially with Wines out early giving him a prime chance for a hot start (a big factor in starting him). They seem very committed to Gray rotting in a pocket and Ebert forward and then you've lost Wingard as their top midfielder to finish last year and Polec as their top outside guy, a role Boak does float about in a bit as well. I really like their kids but it's seriously hard to mount a case of them being used over Boak when all are just as competent as forwards as him anyway. I do think Boak is a guy who will fade later in the season as I agree that Port don't look good to win a lot of games to me and thus somewhere around round 14 they might prioritise the kids, of course that could be countered by them finally firing Hinkley and an interim coach that's coaching for a job will pretty quickly stop the stupid Gray and Boak as forward pockets thing and put their two best midfielders back in the guts to try and be better as a team.
Really I think Boak has the strongest case to improve about 7 points in that price bracket (that isn't injured at least).
The other factor for me is that I look at the top forwards coming in and I see Westhoff, Hawkins and Franklin with very strong cases to drop 5+ points. Menegola is also super inconsistent and does have a lot of competition, only takes a couple less 130 games and a couple more 70 games and he also drops 5 very easily. Remove those 4 and then it's case of trying to find players to go 100+ to replace them and the list is pretty short and very speculative, imo. Basically I think the F3-6 range is probably going to be closer to 95 this year than 100+ which again means that Boak's low ceiling actually is on the higher end for the position.
Really I think Boak has the strongest case to improve about 7 points in that price bracket (that isn't injured at least).
The other factor for me is that I look at the top forwards coming in and I see Westhoff, Hawkins and Franklin with very strong cases to drop 5+ points. Menegola is also super inconsistent and does have a lot of competition, only takes a couple less 130 games and a couple more 70 games and he also drops 5 very easily. Remove those 4 and then it's case of trying to find players to go 100+ to replace them and the list is pretty short and very speculative, imo. Basically I think the F3-6 range is probably going to be closer to 95 this year than 100+ which again means that Boak's low ceiling actually is on the higher end for the position.
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I’ve already touched on the fact he has played 129/132 possible games in the last 6 years.
However, another thing about people being concerned with Boak’s age and where he’s trending...The top 10 forwards last year on averages and their age:
Hawkins (30)
Westhoff (32)
Menegola (27)
Buddy (32)
D.Smith (25)
T.McDonald (26)
Heeney (22)
Gray (30)
Mundy (33)
Gunston (27)
A lot around the age that Boak is right now (30).
However, another thing about people being concerned with Boak’s age and where he’s trending...The top 10 forwards last year on averages and their age:
Hawkins (30)
Westhoff (32)
Menegola (27)
Buddy (32)
D.Smith (25)
T.McDonald (26)
Heeney (22)
Gray (30)
Mundy (33)
Gunston (27)
A lot around the age that Boak is right now (30).
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