Strategy Round 6: Trades

[frosty1]

What's the go with Milera? I was looking at moving on Burgess and Parker for a quick cash grab with a couple of rookies on the bubble if I could do it, but if Milera is going to be out for a significant number of weeks I'll need to do something... (starts trawling through the lower mid priced defenders for a medium term fix that will allow at least an "up" trade from Parker.... )

Hmm, If I go down to a rookie defender (eg if Rotham gets a call up at the Eagles), then I can afford a forward who I'd consider a "keeper" (there's a few I like in the 450k bracket), while having a few dollars spare. Or I an go full mid pricer and trade Milera and Parker for say Redman and Toby Greene or Charlie Curnow

Hmm, need to make the decisions pretty quickly

 

[manyproblems]

What's the go with Milera? I was looking at moving on Burgess and Parker for a quick cash grab with a couple of rookies on the bubble if I could do it, but if Milera is going to be out for a significant number of weeks I'll need to do something... (starts trawling through the lower mid priced defenders for a medium term fix that will allow at least an "up" trade from Parker.... )

Hmm, If I go down to a rookie defender (eg if Rotham gets a call up at the Eagles), then I can afford a forward who I'd consider a "keeper" (there's a few I like in the 450k bracket), while having a few dollars spare. Or I an go full mid pricer and trade Milera and Parker for say Redman and Toby Greene or Charlie Curnow

Hmm, need to make the decisions pretty quickly

Milera owner here, high grade AC joint is trouble so has to go. I think if you dont have seagull then this is the time. Its going to take 3 trades later on. I will use Milera as a Loop as I want Ross/Baker this week, then get seagull for Milera next week.

 

[randomcliche]

Will watch Buddy closely tonight, if he looks fit he's in.

What is the verdict?

300k burning a hole in my back pocket, and it’s time to grab a def premium.

Hurn ~560k pricy, but just keeps knocking out big scores. Seems to be really benefiting from the new kickout rule. I’m still wary of overpaying though as I recall buying him last year only to see him knock out a 60.

Laird/Sicily ~530k Nice price for what these two are capable of. Suspension threat is always there with Sicily but it’s difficult to justify buying somewhat unproven Stewart types when these two are available for essentially the same price.

Stewart ~530k Looks incredible, getting very high possession counts and taking all kickout duties but will this continue once Touhy returns? Tricky to pay the price without knowing. Touhy likely back next week makes him a very tricky buy IMO.

Lloyd ~610k Would likely need another downgrade to get there but he’s probably worth it. Will have a high BE next week though so might be best giving the cows another week before nabbing a sub 600k Lloyd with a bit of luck.

Love the summary. Laird = b.c Milera (not first on here mention) Then Sicily because seems value. Then seagull because points. Then Hurn, although Sicily could be down here as well, because anger. Avoid Stewart at this price given options above

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

What’s everyone’s thoughts on Shiel?

Gets a ton of it but frequently inaccurate with his disposal. Expect some ~ 35 possession games that barely nudge triple figures in SC

 

[BlufBlufShuv]

Not sure I see the point of moving Burgess on, the DPP plus the trade has a lot more value to it than the $ made? The earliest I can see him traded in my team is their bye, but likely not at all.

 

[Maso]

Milera to Lloyd most likely
or i will go Milera to Baker via Moore and also grab Ross

 

[Santoz]

Andrews & Milera. Milera needs to go considering my bench cover is Clark & Burgess

With Reilley O'Brien looking solid I might be able to flick Goldy & bring in Baker via DPP. Then turn Milera into Laird.

Week after that grab Hately (for Butters/Scott/Setterfield) and turn Clark into another premo defender. Not starting either Whitfield or Lloyd has been a massive pain in the backside, but I'm not going to pay overs for them now.

 

[Bermi]

Milera owner here, high grade AC joint is trouble so has to go. I think if you dont have seagull then this is the time. Its going to take 3 trades later on. I will use Milera as a Loop as I want Ross/Baker this week, then get seagull for Milera next week.

Yeah, as an owner too, Milera has to go. BTW, who is Seagull?
I'm thinking the logical replacement choice would be Laird, as Milera might have been taking some of his SC points. Since Milera didn't play mainly in the second half, I thought Laird might have scored more in the second half, to prove my theory, but Laird scored the same (1/2 time 47pts and 2nd half 46 points), hmmm.
Then I'm thinking why is Laird scoring so low this year, 2 scores under 90 for a 95 avg and last year he averaged 108 and the year before 100. He's 25yo, so age is not the problem.
I checked Lairds scoring last year and he has scored under 90 pts 4 times, so I suppose it's not unusual for him to score below 90, so he seems like a genuine bargain priced player.
Am I on the right track?

 

[benlions]

Is Hately role secure with Ward's unfortunate injury? Feels like it is, just wondering if there is one any senior players missing from the side who could easily replace him (none come to mind).

I watched the GWS / Suns reserves game.
Bonar, Shipley the only two inside mids who would be in with a shout.
Bonar played very well in the first quarter but only finished with 19 touches
Shipley (maybe because I don't recognise him) was inconspicuous but ended with 34 possessions.

So no. Can't see Lately being usurped.

 

[IDIG]

Yeah, as an owner too, Milera has to go. BTW, who is Seagull?
I'm thinking the logical replacement choice would be Laird, as Milera might have been taking some of his SC points. Since Milera didn't play mainly in the second half, I thought Laird might have scored more in the second half, to prove my theory, but Laird scored the same (1/2 time 47pts and 2nd half 46 points), hmmm.
Then I'm thinking why is Laird scoring so low this year, 2 scores under 90 for a 95 avg and last year he averaged 108 and the year before 100. He's 25yo, so age is not the problem.
I checked Lairds scoring last year and he has scored under 90 pts 4 times, so I suppose it's not unusual for him to score below 90, so he seems like a genuine bargain priced player.
Am I on the right track?

Lloyd

 

[WO FAT]

Can someone tell me how much Milera drops this week?

 

[Darkie]

Both he and Merrett have tonned up 4/5 times this season. With Shiels lowest being 92 against Melb.. Merrett 560k, Sheil 511k ?

My initial reaction was that one is a proper premium and one isn’t. It looks like I may not be alone in that assessment.

 

[inwhiterooms]

Lloyd

How do you feel about trading into him at 610k this week?

 

[Darkie]

Yeah, as an owner too, Milera has to go. BTW, who is Seagull?
I'm thinking the logical replacement choice would be Laird, as Milera might have been taking some of his SC points. Since Milera didn't play mainly in the second half, I thought Laird might have scored more in the second half, to prove my theory, but Laird scored the same (1/2 time 47pts and 2nd half 46 points), hmmm.
Then I'm thinking why is Laird scoring so low this year, 2 scores under 90 for a 95 avg and last year he averaged 108 and the year before 100. He's 25yo, so age is not the problem.
I checked Lairds scoring last year and he has scored under 90 pts 4 times, so I suppose it's not unusual for him to score below 90, so he seems like a genuine bargain priced player.
Am I on the right track?

There was a view, which I subscribed to, that Laird may not get as many chip around the back line touches this year given the new rules. I recall he may have been the #1 player for marking kickins at Adelaide. The new rules thread could clarify.

With all of this said, I am considering him as a near term trade in option. He’s not that cheap but a lot of proven players are still a bit dear given the c. 10% start of year premium, and I think he could benefit from Milera and also Seedsman being out near term. I’m open to being corrected on the latter though.

My current main reservation on trading in Laird is that the def rookies are better, so it may only be a 20-30 point upgrade.

 

[Herbie66]

re Laird

just wondering with Brown missing is Laird playing more of a defensive role this season ?

Geelong & Hawthorn both have shown that Laird & Smith are first stopped although watching the replay looks like Pyke had them (finally) playing "run and gun".

From watching Laird doesn't seem to be picking up those possessions like he used to around the back end of the centre square.

Not sure if it relates to Brown missing or they are/were trying to use Milera & Smith as outlet transitional runners.

After yesterday more attention might be used trying to restrict Smith , certainly will gain more metres than Laird.

 

[Darkie]

re Laird

just wondering with Brown missing is Laird playing more of a defensive role this season ?

Geelong & Hawthorn both have shown that Laird & Smith are first stopped although watching the replay looks like Pyke had them (finally) playing "run and gun".

From watching Laird doesn't seem to be picking up those possessions like he used to around the back end of the centre square.

Not sure if it relates to Brown missing or they are/were trying to use Milera & Smith as outlet transitional runners.

After yesterday more attention might be used trying to restrict Smith , certainly will gain more metres than Laird.

Interesting question, I recall Brown being important for Laird's scoring years ago.

Do any Crows fans/other observers have a view on Laird?

Edit: the main changes in his stats are handballs down 4-5, and clearances down from 1.2/game to 0.4. The clearances could be a B Crouch/Sloane thing also?

I did say in preseason that I thought it was highly unlikely he would remain the fourth best accumulator in the comp as a defender (32.2 per game).

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/pc-adelaide-crows--rory-laird

 

[Herbie66]

Interesting question, I recall Brown being important for Laird's scorinG years ago.

Do any Crows fans/other observers have a view on Laird?

It's hard trying to gauge on TV watching the games , as a lot of modern day commentators don't like calling players names and a lot of the Crows look the same to me.

Doesn't seem to be racking the possies up around HB like he used too.

 

[bomberboy]

Caleb Daniel hasn't scored below 93 this year.

Parker to Daniel looks very likely.

Scott to Baker via Drew also interests me a lot.

 

[Darkie]

It's hard trying to gauge on TV watching the games , as a lot of modern day commentators don't like calling players names and a lot of the Crows look the same to me.

Doesn't seem to be racking the possies up around HB like he used too.

In BT's case, I think that's because he doesn't know them ... although Dwayne Russell is fighting the good fight and focusing almost exclusively on it.

 

[Darkie]

Caleb Daniel hasn't scored below 93 this year.

Parker to Daniel looks very likely.

Scott to Baker via Drew also interests me a lot.

Just did some digging on this. From what I can tell:

- He started playing back in round 20 last year. Has since scored 100, 120, 75 and 112, followed by 104, 120, 96, 93 and 100. That's 102 to end last year and 103 this year.

- His lowest score since that time was in a game when he only had one R50, versus a minimum of 4 in the others. So he may not have actually played defence in that game.

- Role uncertainty seems to be a bit of an issue, given pre season comments and that he's coached by Beveridge. See below.

- He had an interrupted preseason with a knee surgery late last year, but he said in Jan that it's "sweet - all fine".