Questions for Rowsus

[minidee]

Hi Rowsus, my name is minidee and I'm a trade-a-holic

I'm more interested in finishing as high as possible than leagues so do I trade to upgrade or do I hold? I've go two more upgrades left, one in defence and one in the ruck.
I'm thinking of getting Clisby for Thurlow then upgrading Blicavs to Ryder leaving me $53,300 and 2 trades left. Good trades? I can then upgrade Vlas or Goodes hopefully to Hanley or just sit.

My current team is:-

Goddard Hibberd Gibbs McKenzie Duffield Goodes (Vlas Thurlow)
Ablett Pendles Swan JPK Barlow Jelwood Cotchin Hodge (Titchell Crouch)
Maric Nicholls (Blicavs McBean)
Cox Bartell Martin Franklin Nic Nat SJ (Daniher Staker)

$50,000 and 4 trades

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Having both Cox and NicNat makes your choice a little easier.
It becomes a simple question of who you think will get a higher P.I.T. score in the last 9 weeks. Sandi could be a monster when he gets back, but I just get the feeling they will get some game time into him, and give him a little cuddle, to make sure he is ok for the finals. That means a drop in score in some games, so while his good scores might be good, he's likely to have some 70's or 80's when he is cuddled. Of course, there is the ever present risk of him missing games again, too.
To my mind that leaves Goldy, Minson, Bartel, Rioli. That's just my order, your may be different.

Cheers mate, very much appreciated. The order in which you have them there is also the order that I would have them in.
A quick one, if I was to add Ryder to the list (and possibly get him this week instead of Watson), where would yo feature him on the list??

 

[doc ron]

Hey Rowsus, do you think its better value to have 2 playing bench players for each of the 3 main positions for the rest of the year or would I get better value having a permanent donut on each line to use the E loophole with? currently just outside the top 500 so the 50k is gone but still want a high finish and a chance for league wins. also for this week who to play out of omeara and mitchell or should I take a risk and play both seeing they should ton up and risk putting swan or jelwood on the pine?

 

[Rowsus]

I'm thinking McEvoy to Bartel (Cox/NicNat as R2) to re open the link. Have cover for a WCE ruck out this week and get rid of McEvoy and blocking the POD of Bartel against me.

I'm also Keen on Roguhead.

So do I trade leaving me with 4 trades no money.

and if so Roughead vs Bartel lol

also not licking Hickey being named. No doubt it's only due to playing FRE but all the same hickey pops up every few games and McEvoy suffers IMO

To add before you have answered lol. In which order (needing to replace) would you put these three players

McEvoy
Priddis
Rockliff.

Am I better off sticking with McEvoy and trading out rockliff? My intitial thoughts are rockliff at least has an easy run so he should equal McEvoy with a potential to sneak in a 140 once or twice. And thinking a bit ahead to the final round GF week the saints play Freo. So in comes hickey. But at the same time Rockliff plays at geelong lol.

I like your thinking Zim. McEvoy is a concern, and Hickey is a big part of that. StKilda will want to get time into him, now their season is toast.
I think from a pure points point of view, McEvoy to Bartel is better than McEvoy to Roughie. I think both Bartel and Roughie are a chance to get a rest in the run home. We can only guess on that, but it looks like it to me. Here is the problem. When you look at their draws, Roughie looks like a rest in round 20 against StKilda, while Bartel's most obvious rest is round 23 against Brisbane! Given you have expressed an interest in doing well in finals, not just in overall, your answer comes down to this question. Will Bartel be rested in round 23? If you think yes, then take Roughie, get a few points less per week, but have even better Ruck link back up, and a better GF score. If no, just take Jimmy.
To answer the 2nd question, it is more important to know who you can replace them with.
We have seen you can replace McEvoy with Roughie or Bartel.
According to SC Gold McEvoy is worth 85.2/week. I think given his Hickey problem, that might be close. SC Gold of course, aren't factoring in Hickey. Without Hickey I believe he could be 95-100. I will give him a 90/week overall.
SC Gold have Roughie at 107.6. Once again, I think they're close. I'm going to give him 105, but also factor in a rest, where Staker plays Richmond at the MCG to replace him, so let's call that a 70. This reduces Roughie down to a P.I.T. average of 101.1.
SC Gold have Bartel at 110.9. I think he's a little lower. Maybe 107. If we assume Staker replaces him in round 23, then you get Staker against Geelong at Simmonds in your GF! I'll give Staker a 65 that day, which reduces his 107 to 102.3.
MvEvoy to Roughie on SC Gold gets 22.4/week. On my estimation, it's actually only 10.1 week, but when Roughie plays Sydney at ANZ Stadium in round 23, his 100 will probably be better than Staker's 65 replacing Jimmy down at Simmonds.
McEvoy to Bartel on SC Gold gets 25.7/week. My estimation has it at 12.3/week. Bartel gets you an extra 30 point or 21 points for the rest of the season over Roughie, but if they rest Bartel in round 23, you'll wish you had Roughie instead to win your GF.
Rockliff is pegged to score at 75.5 by SC Gold, and I think he'll be closer to 87-88. Upgrading Rocky looks like using the same 2 players above, so it comes down to the same conclusion. Personally, I don't like NRoo, JRoo, Walker or Petrie. This leaves Rioli as about the only viable third choice. If you trust him to get through, he is probably in roughly the same ball park as Roughie, on score. SC Gold have him a little higher than both, and his one game at ANZ got 111, so he might be your best GF option.
Priddis is Mr Consistent. Unfortunately, his first name is "Just short of Premium", and his middle name is "But".
I'll back him to not miss any games, and score at 107 from here. SC Gold are saying 103.8. The hardest part of this question is, who can you afford, and what do you think they'll average: Barlow, Swan, Griffen, Dangerfield seem like the obvious choices. I actually like Dangerfield to top score from here out of those 4, and he's a lot cheaper than Griffen.
SC Gold give Danger a 125.3 from here, and that's very close to my 125. SC Gold say he gets you 21.2/week, and I say 18/week.
From a pure points perspective, it looks like the upgrade order should be:
SC Gold: Rockliff, McEvoy, Priddis
Rowsus: Rockliff, Priddis, McEvoy
I think you need to look beyond just a points point of view, and look at flexibility of back up.
That being the case, I'd go McEvoy (to Roughie), and toss a coin between upgrading Priddis and Rocky.
I hope this has helped.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Cheers mate, very much appreciated. The order in which you have them there is also the order that I would have them in.
A quick one, if I was to add Ryder to the list (and possibly get him this week instead of Watson), where would yo feature him on the list??

Never been a Ryder fan, so I'm going to sit him 5th on that list. His average last season was totally skewed by his first few games. Every player has a few scores that skew their average, Ryders skewed his more, and came in a clump at the start of the season. That's a bad sign.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Never been a Ryder fan, so I'm going to sit him 5th on that list. His average last season was totally skewed by his first few games. Every player has a few scores that skew their average, Ryders skewed his more, and came in a clump at the start of the season. That's a bad sign.

So with that in mind you would probably suggest I look elsewhere with my Rowe ---> Ryder trade??

Was thinking about doing this:
Thurlow ---> Hanely
Rowe ---> Ryder

 

[Rowsus]

WOW! Before I start replying, I would really like to thank you for all the time and effort you put into helping me with my options!

Your suggestions have really made me think and building up those DPP's whilst also even moving Rocky to the bench makes me quite comfortable with my team. My only concern is the amount of trades left, I really don't want any less than 2 when there's still a chunk of rounds to play. I'm confident my links can fill in for spots but I'm worried about injuries, LTI's.

The point you brought up about the weakness of my R1/R2/F6 has made me think I am really going to have to blow all my trades. Leaving me with less "what ifs" come seasons end.

Also just curious as to why you didn't suggest the Docherty > Richards downgrade this week too? It means I must play Clisby on field this week. Thinking I'll make that trade too (just read back over the original post) as I believe Staker with outscore Clisby by more than 15-20 points.

Trading Kennedy > Atkins and Docherty > X.Richards (is it a fixture thing that makes him more appealing?? I'm not sure.) leaves me with 240K in the bank. Meaning I can upgrade Nicholls in one or two rounds time. This brings me a little back to what I said above. Just roughly I think Nicholls is predicted to go up 35K each for the next two rounds, and 30K in three rounds from now, that'll make him 100K more than he is priced at now. I know I'm a real outside chance to win the whole lot but would it be worth waiting an extra round or two to upgrade Nicholls? Meaning I have more than $0 in my bank?

It would be a massive pain if I, for example, had to trade Duffield when he makes his return due to a LTI, when he drops in price significantly and I have no money to upgrade. With that being said, I have to decide what's more valuable out of immediate points and potential future trades & cash.

Thanks Rowsus.

EDIT - Staker may have to play if Cox pulls out late. Considering WCE play after Brisbane, I may have to keep Staker in the FWD line just in case... meaning I must play Clisby and risk not playing Staker.

Yes, purely a fixture thing. If you allocate 1 point for a Friday night game, and 9 points for a late Sunday game, Richards beats Oxley 35 points to 21 points. You need your donuts to play late to be of any use for loopholing. Collingwood have 4 Friday games, which means 4 out of 9 weeks you have no use of the loophole with Oxley.

The main reason I didn't do it, is the potential to wring some extra cash out of Docherty. This was with the Duffield problem still in mind. Duffield has a B/E of 132, so will probably drop $20-$25k when he comes back. Docherty has a B/E of 16. If he can play next week he might rise that same amount. It means waiting on upgrading Nicholls, but that also makes money too. It gives you the option of reaching your goal with a little cash in hand, if Docherty get's picked next week.

The sum looks like this, I guess. If you think the chance of Docherty getting picked next week is lower than the worth of having Staker instead of Clisby this week, pull the pin this week and go Docherty -> Richards. You also nearly need to decide this week, if you are going to risk holding Duffield for the rest of the season. If you can't see him giving you what you want/need, you probably should go the option in the "ps" in my original post. It might be difficult to change Duffield in a few weeks, if he fails, and Docherty hasn't played to increase his value. Your choice comes down to risk Duffield is ok, and have 2 trades (but will probably need to burn both, or risk a lesser player to fix him, if he fails). Don't trust Duffield and have 1 trade left.
A very tough decision. My own opinion keeps changing. Given you would have great coverage, maybe getting Ibbo in, and having 1 trade left is a good option.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

So with that in mind you would probably suggest I look elsewhere with my Rowe ---> Ryder trade??

Was thinking about doing this:
Thurlow ---> Hanely
Rowe ---> Ryder

Given you are facing a donut this week, it does offer Ryder a unique advantage. If he scores say 96, and your choice is Ryder or a donut, then if you choose the donut so you can get someone better than Ryder next week, that player has to beat Ryder by an average of 8/game.
If you can't afford Hanley and Roughie, then Hanley and Ryder might be your best option.

 

[Demolished]

A very tough decision. My own opinion keeps changing. Given you would have great coverage, maybe getting Ibbo in, and having 1 trade left is a good option.
Good luck

If I was to get Ibbo in, I wouldn't be able to get a premium in for Nicholls?
Thinking I'll go Docherty > Richards (thanks for the clarification) this week.
Might keep Kennedy one more week as emergency in the forward line incase Roughy or Cox are late outs.
I think I'm going to keep Duffield and hope Staker will almost score just as much if not 10 points less both outings.

Still undecided though. Cheers

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, do you think its better value to have 2 playing bench players for each of the 3 main positions for the rest of the year or would I get better value having a permanent donut on each line to use the E loophole with? currently just outside the top 500 so the 50k is gone but still want a high finish and a chance for league wins. also for this week who to play out of omeara and mitchell or should I take a risk and play both seeing they should ton up and risk putting swan or jelwood on the pine?

Tough question, doc ron.
It really comes down to the quality and JS of those bench players. I think the best way to answer your question is to look at the near perfect scenario. To me, that is 1 player on each line that has great JS, and can score a reasonable score, couple with a DPP donut. The donut can be invaluable, even if it is looking at 1 Premiums score before choosing between him, and another Premium. Having said that, if your one bench cover is a poor scorer, and/or has poor JS, then you are much better with 2 on the bench.
As to playing O'Meara or Mitchell in front of Swan or Jellwood, that would appear to be very risky. I'd be loathed to ever recommend such a move, but if you want to roll the dice on something like that, I'd be more inclined to go Mitchell against Melbourne in front of Priddis.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

If I was to get Ibbo in, I wouldn't be able to get a premium in for Nicholls?
Thinking I'll go Docherty > Richards (thanks for the clarification) this week.
Might keep Kennedy one more week as emergency in the forward line incase Roughy or Cox are late outs.
I think I'm going to keep Duffield and hope Staker will almost score just as much if not 10 points less both outings.

Still undecided though. Cheers

You can get Ibbo, and a Premium for Nicholls. You just have to get every dollar you can, to do it. If you hold onto Kennedy this week, you lose around $10k (potentially), so it would become very difficult. In that idea, I had you going Duffield to Richards this week. Once again, that was in the faint hope of getting some dollars out of Docherty, and a few more out of Nicholls before the final upgrades. It may mean upgrading Staker, and losing that link, but that is something you could decide in a week or two.
If you keep Kennedy this week, and have SJ on your Mid bench, then maybe put SJ on the ground, pit Swan on the bench with the (E) on him. If he fails tonight, you can swap Mitchell onto the ground, and get his score instead. If he goes big, you get his score as emergency for Johnson.

 

[Goodie's Guns]

Given you are facing a donut this week, it does offer Ryder a unique advantage. If he scores say 96, and your choice is Ryder or a donut, then if you choose the donut so you can get someone better than Ryder next week, that player has to beat Ryder by an average of 8/game.
If you can't afford Hanley and Roughie, then Hanley and Ryder might be your best option.

Yeah unfortunately can't afford Roughie and Hanley, this would have been perfect.
Just looking at ownership for Ryder, as far as I can gather he is from MarkM's thread he is barely owned by anyone in the top 1000, if any, and in 5.72% of teams in the whole comp. Whether this trade works in the long run, or I am burned, then I'll learn from it and hopefully put the lessons into practice next season. Essentially I will take a couple of POD's to try and improve my ranking for the remainder of the season, thanks for your help and thoughts mate.

 

[Rowsus]

Hi Rowsus, my name is minidee and I'm a trade-a-holic

I'm more interested in finishing as high as possible than leagues so do I trade to upgrade or do I hold? I've go two more upgrades left, one in defence and one in the ruck.
I'm thinking of getting Clisby for Thurlow then upgrading Blicavs to Ryder leaving me $53,300 and 2 trades left. Good trades? I can then upgrade Vlas or Goodes hopefully to Hanley or just sit.

My current team is:-

Goddard Hibberd Gibbs McKenzie Duffield Goodes (Vlas Thurlow)
Ablett Pendles Swan JPK Barlow Jelwood Cotchin Hodge (Titchell Crouch)
Maric Nicholls (Blicavs McBean)
Cox Bartell Martin Franklin Nic Nat SJ (Daniher Staker)

$50,000 and 4 trades

Hi minidee, I have the same disease!
I think you are running some huge coverage risks, but sometimes you need to take the risks to get the rewards.
Thurlow to Clisby isn't my preferred option. It makes you $115k, which is good, but given you only have 4 trades left, you have to max your return on them.
I don't think I'd trade this week. Let Crouch moo a little more, take him down to Atkins to open a link, and make more money than Thurlow-Clisby. This will let you get someone better than Ryder for Blicavs, like Goldy or Minson. From there, you'd have 2 trades, and a better idea if you have any fires to put out.
Good luck

 

[doc ron]

Thanks for the feedback Rowsus. I got Priddis at his cheapest point and I knew that he would never go huge but would get me 90-110 week in week out so I know what I'll get with him, with swan and jelwood I'm not so sure, would be a huge risk to go ahead with such a move and I've never been a big risk taker.

 

[minidee]

Hi minidee, I have the same disease!
I think you are running some huge coverage risks, but sometimes you need to take the risks to get the rewards.
Thurlow to Clisby isn't my preferred option. It makes you $115k, which is good, but given you only have 4 trades left, you have to max your return on them.
I don't think I'd trade this week. Let Crouch moo a little more, take him down to Atkins to open a link, and make more money than Thurlow-Clisby. This will let you get someone better than Ryder for Blicavs, like Goldy or Minson. From there, you'd have 2 trades, and a better idea if you have any fires to put out.
Good luck

Thanks for replying Rowsus. How about like you say Crouch to Atkins in a couple of weeks and Blicavs to Roughy. Leaves mid/fwd and ruck/fwd links. Then later Thurlow to X Richards creating def/fwd link with Staker and Goodes/Vlastuin to premium def?

 

[Rowsus]

Thanks for replying Rowsus. How about like you say Crouch to Atkins in a couple of weeks and Blicavs to Roughy. Leaves mid/fwd and ruck/fwd links. Then later Thurlow to X Richards creating def/fwd link with Staker and Goodes/Vlastuin to premium def?

Sounds pretty good, and gives you a couple of weeks to look at things, in case disaster strikes.

 

[Rowsus]

If I was to get Ibbo in, I wouldn't be able to get a premium in for Nicholls?
Thinking I'll go Docherty > Richards (thanks for the clarification) this week.
Might keep Kennedy one more week as emergency in the forward line incase Roughy or Cox are late outs.
I think I'm going to keep Duffield and hope Staker will almost score just as much if not 10 points less both outings.

Still undecided though. Cheers

You can get Ibbo, and a Premium for Nicholls. You just have to get every dollar you can, to do it. If you hold onto Kennedy this week, you lose around $10k (potentially), so it would become very difficult. In that idea, I had you going Duffield to Richards this week. Once again, that was in the faint hope of getting some dollars out of Docherty, and a few more out of Nicholls before the final upgrades. It may mean upgrading Staker, and losing that link, but that is something you could decide in a week or two.
If you keep Kennedy this week, and have SJ on your Mid bench, then maybe put SJ on the ground, pit Swan on the bench with the (E) on him. If he fails tonight, you can swap Mitchell onto the ground, and get his score instead. If he goes big, you get his score as emergency for Johnson.

I've got my fingers crossed, that you saw Kennedy was sub, and traded him out!

 

[Polarbear]

Hey Rowsus,

Can you please help assist me with this one.
Traded Rowe out for McBean last night to free up a little cash but cannot decide who should go in backline.
Vlaustin, Terlich or Goodes if they all play for Ibbotson

Vlaustin was in my plans due to him losing cash but looking at it he is averaging almost 96 if you ignore his first game (sub I think) and his last game when he was injured.
Terlich in good form lately but averaging only 77. Goodes consistent but may not play.
Now leaning towards Terlich even though he has cash too make.
Any thoughts?

B:Godd,Gibbs,Shaw,Goodes,Vlaustin,Terlich (Clisby ,brown)
M:Swan,Pendles,JPK,Deledio,Fyfe,Omeara,Mitchell (ABLETT,Crouch)
R:Kreuzer,Minson (Nicholls,McBean)
F:Cox,Bartel,Martin,Rocky,franklin,McCaffer (SJ,Staker)

11 trades $143k

 

[yakka]

hello Master..
I'll start off by introducing my self and then my issues.
It's alec here and where do I start.
SJ on bench with Big Ivan, Abblet out.
Question 1 Are nick nat and cox playing tonight?
Question 2 Do I trade out Gazz

This is my team

Goddard Shaw Hepple Hanley Harlet Mckenzie (Staker,Thurlow)
Abblet Danger Jack Barlow Priddis Ball Goodes Mitchell (Mayes, hrovat)
Coxy Ivan (Rowe Daw)
Nat SJ Dusty Rocky Buddy Zork (LeCras Winderlick)

Now can you sort of see what im up against..
110,000 left 6 trades
Get rid of gazz for Josh k and make 170.000?

 

[Rowsus]

hello Master..
I'll start off by introducing my self and then my issues.
It's alec here and where do I start.
SJ on bench with Big Ivan, Abblet out.
Question 1 Are nick nat and cox playing tonight?
Question 2 Do I trade out Gazz

This is my team

Goddard Shaw Hepple Hanley Harlet Mckenzie (Staker,Thurlow)
Abblet Danger Jack Barlow Priddis Ball Goodes Mitchell (Mayes, hrovat)
Coxy Ivan (Rowe Daw)
Nat SJ Dusty Rocky Buddy Zork (LeCras Winderlick)

Now can you sort of see what im up against..
110,000 left 6 trades
Get rid of gazz for Josh k and make 170.000?

Hi yakka,
sorry for the late reply, it's only 7.30am here in Denmark.
I'm having the same bad luck as you, with the same 3 players. All the signs point to one of NicNat and Cox getting a rest, all we can do is hope they both play. Yep, I've got both of them, as well.
Don't trade Gaz. I think we need to take them at their word, and assume he is out for one week only. Let's assume JPK scores 130 this week. Given you have Mayes and Hrovat, who may score say 70, it means you are only getting 60 for your JPK trade. Your last 6 trades are worth more than 60 points each. Sometimes, when the bad things happen, you just have to cop it on the chin, and ride it out.
Good luck