It's actually quite funny seeing Terlich as a trade in option! Not to say you are wrong, just that some coaches with him, are weighing up trading him out!
Definitely creating a link for Staker is something worth considering. I would suggest Richards over Oxley, as he has better use a floating donut, as he has more later games than Oxley. They are both $96,200 in price.
If you are really keen to go for broke, I have a leftfield suggestion for you at the end of my reply!
Option 1a - vanilla
Vlastuin to Pearce D/Harbrow/Adcock/Watts/Henderson/Goodes/Scotland
Nothing there that is making me salivate. Questionable improvement on a few in that list, and no guaranteed improvement over 5/game from any of them. Verdict - no thanks, too bland.
Option 1b - vanilla with sprinkles
Webster to Richards - cash goes up to $126,200.
Vlastuin to Taylor/Thompson SD/McKenzie/Houli/Enright/Mackie
Of those options I lean towards McKenzie and Enright. SDT's average is hanging on 1 good score, that has bumped it up 4-5/game. McKenzie has upside, and Enright has history. If you're shooting for a finish around 150th, you could go this route and cross your fingers.
Option 2 - You really want to go for broke? - RockyRoad with 24ct gold flakes!
The gold could be valuable, or it could lead to heavy metal poisoning!
The only chance I can see that you can make an extraordinary amount of ground, is to go a bit ballsy, and force some PODS. You need to try for a double edged sword. Cut a player that most of the teams above you have, hope he fails from here, and make combinations that probably don't exist in too many teams above you! If the player fails (ie scores about 10-15 less than those that have him hoped for), and you replace him with someone that goes considerably above that score, you nearly double your improvement.
Here's what I'm thinking. Back Mitchell to score within the ball park of JPK, and trade JPK out!
Since round 10 Mitchell has gone: 87, 126, 84, 99, 106 - average 100.4. If we want to be really generous, we can say his debut match was only 2.5 quarters. If you factor that in, his average jumps up to 108.5.
In that same stretch of games, JPK went: 126, 86, 107, 88, 96 - average 100.6. You can see, it's not a complete long shot that Mitchell might nearly cover JPK's score for you! Remember, he doesn't have to cover it exactly, if you use the money from JPK well! 71% of the top 100 teams have JPK. If he "fails", or just covers Mitchell's score, you create a great POD by not having him!
Part 2 of the plan. Create combination POD's!!!
What are combination POD's? - let's look at some of MarkM's great work. Lot's of top 100 Coaches have:
Mitchell (100% - but how many are playing him? 50%?) Ablett - 99% and Pendlebury 96%.
Fewer top 100 Coaches have:
Swan 80%, Selwood 60%, Dangerfield 59%, Griffin 27%
We started out with this premise, hoping that in rough mathematical terms, that Mitchell = JPK. So let's forget for the moment only (maybe) 50% of Coaches have Mitchell playing, and just say they cancel each other out.
Looking at the 6 players above, and using the the top 100 Coaches %'s we see that:
0.99 x 0.96 x 0.80 x 0.60 x 0.59 x 0.27 = .0727, or 7.27% of Coaches mathematically will own all 6 of those players! It still leaves you with one player. In your case, we are talking either Cotchin (56%) or Fyfe (30). Add those in, and we could say only 4 or 2 to 3 Coaches have those 8 on the ground in the top 100.
Now let's look at the Rucks. Goldstein 57%, Minson 33%, Leuenberger 7%.
Leuey's a POD, but will he keep pace with the other 2?
In their last 4 matches, since Leuey returned, they have averaged:
Goldy 113.8, Leuey 112.5, Minson 104.3
Your opinion is most probably different to mine, but I can see one of the three possibly falling off the pace, and giving up 10-15 points to the other 2. I like Goldy to not be that Ruck! If you like Goldy, this a chance to take him! Or if you don't like Goldy, and think the other 2 will score just as well, look elsewhere for improvements.
You're starting to get the picture now. Convention says, the winner wins because his D6, M8, R2 and F6 out perform his nearest rivals. They share most of the same Super Premiums and Premiums. But what if you build a SUPER TEAM. A team that has all the top 16 players, but that every other team only has 13 or 14 of those top 16 players!
Trade JPK down to Atkins, it creates a DPP link M/F for further back up, and gives you $65k + $398k = $463k to go upgrading.
Who are the potential up grades?
Griffen - $664,900, B/E 152 - by trading out
Cotchin - $495,500, B/E 93 - struggling for big scores this season. Averaging 108 for the season, and 97 his last 6! OR
Fyfe - $497,900, B/E 155 - also struggling for WOW scores. Season average 104, last 4 average 90!
Given we're trying to max our POD's, keep Fyfe, ditch Cotchin. This week that cost $169,400. According to SC Gold, it will cost $158,100 next week.
Goldstein - $551,800, B/E 104 - SC Gold predict his next 3 prices to be: $557,500, $566,000, $567,400
Shifting Minson, or Leuey, to goldy will only cost a mere $50k at most. Easily done if you desire.
Nicholls - $325,500, B/E 16 - SC Gold predict his next 3 prices to be: $361,000, $393,200, $416,300
Vlastuin - $360,500, B/E 155
I still think the best options are McKenzie and Enright, even though you can afford who ever you want. McKenzie cost you $115,500, and Enright $109,800.
My thoughts?
This week:
JPK to Atkins, Vlastuin to McKenzie - money left in bank $347,500.
Next week:
Cotchin to Griffen, which SC Gold says leaves you $232,000.
Nicholls to Goldstein which SC Gold says will cost $196k
Final team
Goddard, Gibbs, Hanley, Shaw, Heppell, McKenzie (Clisby, Webster)
Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Danger, Selwood, Griffen, Mitchell, Fyfe (Atkins, Martin)
Minson, Luey (Goldstein, Hannath)
Bartel, Cox, SJ, Naita, Rockliff, Buddy (Staker, Hitchcock)
You get to loophole the best out of your Rucks most weeks, as Fremantle play after at least 2 of the others nearly every week!
If Hitchcock doesn't play, you can loophole your Fwd's.
You Def has little cover for outs, so you might decide to delay Nicholls to Goldy a couple of weeks, just in case you need cover there.
It's risky, but there's no great reward without risk!
Remember - no one ever stole 2nd base, by keeping their foot on 1st base!
Which ever way you jump, I hope it works out well, and you finish higher than you are now!
Good luck!
Definitely creating a link for Staker is something worth considering. I would suggest Richards over Oxley, as he has better use a floating donut, as he has more later games than Oxley. They are both $96,200 in price.
If you are really keen to go for broke, I have a leftfield suggestion for you at the end of my reply!
Option 1a - vanilla
Vlastuin to Pearce D/Harbrow/Adcock/Watts/Henderson/Goodes/Scotland
Nothing there that is making me salivate. Questionable improvement on a few in that list, and no guaranteed improvement over 5/game from any of them. Verdict - no thanks, too bland.
Option 1b - vanilla with sprinkles
Webster to Richards - cash goes up to $126,200.
Vlastuin to Taylor/Thompson SD/McKenzie/Houli/Enright/Mackie
Of those options I lean towards McKenzie and Enright. SDT's average is hanging on 1 good score, that has bumped it up 4-5/game. McKenzie has upside, and Enright has history. If you're shooting for a finish around 150th, you could go this route and cross your fingers.
Option 2 - You really want to go for broke? - RockyRoad with 24ct gold flakes!
The gold could be valuable, or it could lead to heavy metal poisoning!
The only chance I can see that you can make an extraordinary amount of ground, is to go a bit ballsy, and force some PODS. You need to try for a double edged sword. Cut a player that most of the teams above you have, hope he fails from here, and make combinations that probably don't exist in too many teams above you! If the player fails (ie scores about 10-15 less than those that have him hoped for), and you replace him with someone that goes considerably above that score, you nearly double your improvement.
Here's what I'm thinking. Back Mitchell to score within the ball park of JPK, and trade JPK out!
Since round 10 Mitchell has gone: 87, 126, 84, 99, 106 - average 100.4. If we want to be really generous, we can say his debut match was only 2.5 quarters. If you factor that in, his average jumps up to 108.5.
In that same stretch of games, JPK went: 126, 86, 107, 88, 96 - average 100.6. You can see, it's not a complete long shot that Mitchell might nearly cover JPK's score for you! Remember, he doesn't have to cover it exactly, if you use the money from JPK well! 71% of the top 100 teams have JPK. If he "fails", or just covers Mitchell's score, you create a great POD by not having him!
Part 2 of the plan. Create combination POD's!!!
What are combination POD's? - let's look at some of MarkM's great work. Lot's of top 100 Coaches have:
Mitchell (100% - but how many are playing him? 50%?) Ablett - 99% and Pendlebury 96%.
Fewer top 100 Coaches have:
Swan 80%, Selwood 60%, Dangerfield 59%, Griffin 27%
We started out with this premise, hoping that in rough mathematical terms, that Mitchell = JPK. So let's forget for the moment only (maybe) 50% of Coaches have Mitchell playing, and just say they cancel each other out.
Looking at the 6 players above, and using the the top 100 Coaches %'s we see that:
0.99 x 0.96 x 0.80 x 0.60 x 0.59 x 0.27 = .0727, or 7.27% of Coaches mathematically will own all 6 of those players! It still leaves you with one player. In your case, we are talking either Cotchin (56%) or Fyfe (30). Add those in, and we could say only 4 or 2 to 3 Coaches have those 8 on the ground in the top 100.
Now let's look at the Rucks. Goldstein 57%, Minson 33%, Leuenberger 7%.
Leuey's a POD, but will he keep pace with the other 2?
In their last 4 matches, since Leuey returned, they have averaged:
Goldy 113.8, Leuey 112.5, Minson 104.3
Your opinion is most probably different to mine, but I can see one of the three possibly falling off the pace, and giving up 10-15 points to the other 2. I like Goldy to not be that Ruck! If you like Goldy, this a chance to take him! Or if you don't like Goldy, and think the other 2 will score just as well, look elsewhere for improvements.
You're starting to get the picture now. Convention says, the winner wins because his D6, M8, R2 and F6 out perform his nearest rivals. They share most of the same Super Premiums and Premiums. But what if you build a SUPER TEAM. A team that has all the top 16 players, but that every other team only has 13 or 14 of those top 16 players!
Trade JPK down to Atkins, it creates a DPP link M/F for further back up, and gives you $65k + $398k = $463k to go upgrading.
Who are the potential up grades?
Griffen - $664,900, B/E 152 - by trading out
Cotchin - $495,500, B/E 93 - struggling for big scores this season. Averaging 108 for the season, and 97 his last 6! OR
Fyfe - $497,900, B/E 155 - also struggling for WOW scores. Season average 104, last 4 average 90!
Given we're trying to max our POD's, keep Fyfe, ditch Cotchin. This week that cost $169,400. According to SC Gold, it will cost $158,100 next week.
Goldstein - $551,800, B/E 104 - SC Gold predict his next 3 prices to be: $557,500, $566,000, $567,400
Shifting Minson, or Leuey, to goldy will only cost a mere $50k at most. Easily done if you desire.
Nicholls - $325,500, B/E 16 - SC Gold predict his next 3 prices to be: $361,000, $393,200, $416,300
Vlastuin - $360,500, B/E 155
I still think the best options are McKenzie and Enright, even though you can afford who ever you want. McKenzie cost you $115,500, and Enright $109,800.
My thoughts?
This week:
JPK to Atkins, Vlastuin to McKenzie - money left in bank $347,500.
Next week:
Cotchin to Griffen, which SC Gold says leaves you $232,000.
Nicholls to Goldstein which SC Gold says will cost $196k
Final team
Goddard, Gibbs, Hanley, Shaw, Heppell, McKenzie (Clisby, Webster)
Ablett, Pendles, Swan, Danger, Selwood, Griffen, Mitchell, Fyfe (Atkins, Martin)
Minson, Luey (Goldstein, Hannath)
Bartel, Cox, SJ, Naita, Rockliff, Buddy (Staker, Hitchcock)
You get to loophole the best out of your Rucks most weeks, as Fremantle play after at least 2 of the others nearly every week!
If Hitchcock doesn't play, you can loophole your Fwd's.
You Def has little cover for outs, so you might decide to delay Nicholls to Goldy a couple of weeks, just in case you need cover there.
It's risky, but there's no great reward without risk!
Remember - no one ever stole 2nd base, by keeping their foot on 1st base!
Which ever way you jump, I hope it works out well, and you finish higher than you are now!
Good luck!
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