Questions for Rowsus

[minidee]

Hi minidee, I have the same disease!
I think you are running some huge coverage risks, but sometimes you need to take the risks to get the rewards.
Thurlow to Clisby isn't my preferred option. It makes you $115k, which is good, but given you only have 4 trades left, you have to max your return on them.
I don't think I'd trade this week. Let Crouch moo a little more, take him down to Atkins to open a link, and make more money than Thurlow-Clisby. This will let you get someone better than Ryder for Blicavs, like Goldy or Minson. From there, you'd have 2 trades, and a better idea if you have any fires to put out.
Good luck

Thanks for replying Rowsus. How about like you say Crouch to Atkins in a couple of weeks and Blicavs to Roughy. Leaves mid/fwd and ruck/fwd links. Then later Thurlow to X Richards creating def/fwd link with Staker and Goodes/Vlastuin to premium def?

Sounds pretty good, and gives you a couple of weeks to look at things, in case disaster strikes.

Rowsus, after our chat last week I took your advice and didn't trade and wait for crouch to fatten up. One week later Vlas pulls a 35 and drops buckets of $$$. I'm worried if I keep waiting he will lose so much that upgrading him to anyone decent will be difficult. I've got $47k plus Vlas makes $407500 for a defender with 1 trade. At that price it doesn't leave much to choose from. Do you think trading Thurlow to X Richards now would be a good idea to allow me to get a quality defender? If yes do you think Hanely will be a good fit leaving me $111900 and 2 trades but still with a ruck to upgrade?

 

[Rowsus]

Just as a counterpoint, here are some successful zags from this year..

Priddis - Ave 108 since I brought him in for 451k (Rd8)
Franklin - Ave 100 for me, 433k (Rd9) - not including his Rd15 score, since I took Stakers 110
Pendlebury - Ave 135, paid 610k (Rd11)
Selwood - Ave 113, paid 492k (R13)

All very popular trades at the time which have all given small wins..

Zagging is good sometimes, too! As I said, sometimes the pack is moving in that direction for good reason. But as you point out, they are nearly by definition, small wins. Because no matter how big the win is, if nearly everyone has the same win, then the size of the win has little significance/impact.
It is only the Zigging wins that can have the greatest consequence. Of course, if you Zig, when the pack Zags, and the pack has one of those big wins, you risk being the minority that actually defined that Zag as a win! (For without any Ziggers, there can be no wins for the Zaggers!!!)

LOL, boy I hope that made sense!

 

[Zim^zuM]

I'm back for another week Rowsus lol.

I have Watson to deal with and 5 trades. Do I just nip it in the bud and trade in Swan? It would be easier if the pies didnt play first up.

I can also EMG Crouch and take a look at his score. If it's no good I can play Mitchell or trade to someone else.

Bump lol

 

[inwhiterooms]

Cheers for the replies guys, at this stage I'm thinking I might have a gamble on just the one trade for Harbrow given his improved scoring and possession counts from the past month, I just don't think the bridge between himself and McKenzie is enough to justify the second trade when I'm running so low.

I see Harbrow capable of going at ~90PPG maybeeee a touch more, McKenzie somewhere around 95 PPG so really on projections is a 5-10PPG gain worth using the trade?

As much as I do prefer McKenzie I just can't fully commit. The DPP has me very interested via the Atkins link rather than the Watts suggestion but that's where I'm currently at.

It's really line ball and I wonder if I'd just end up getting caught short with a late out (say Rockliff pulls out late and I already have Staker locked in down back meaning I'd cop a donut)

It's a difficult one

 

[inwhiterooms]

Watson-Swan seems a bit of a switch off brain and trade for mine provided you have the funds and no other issues.

Should you have other positions desperately in need of attention then I don't mind the trade down and look to field Mitchell at M8.

 

[Saintellica]

Thanks Rowsus for the advice. Feeling a little sheepish after reading some of your advice tonight. Will be looking to zig a bit more to finish off the year. Some great reading on this site. Really appreciate the advice you give to all as it opens the eyes to moves not thought of.

 

[Rowsus]

Kære Rowsus,

I although I probably won't be trading this week (although I was considering JPK > Swan, except that JPK plays GWS), I have 3 trades left and just over 100k so have the possibility to probably do two upgrades and 1 downgrade this year at some stage.
My key targets are from: Minson, Swan, Griffen, Shaw or Rioli, while my trade-bait is likely from Gawn, Nicholls, Kmart, Hartlett, JPK, Fyfe or even Franklin with Hayden Schloithe or McBean as downgrade options.. Probably not a realistic chance at overall from here (more than 600 points off the leader), but I am aiming to be in the top 50 by years end..

Here's my team currently....
Goddard, Gibbs, Ellis, Hanley, Heppell, Hartlett (Goodes, Xrichards)
Ablett, Pendlebury, Dangerfield, Barlow Jselwood, Priddis, JPK, Fyfe (Tmitchell, Kmartin)
Goldstein, Cox (Nicholls, Gawn)
SJ, Bartel, Walker, Martin, Jjkennedy, Rockliff (Franklin, Staker)
Trades: 3, Cash: 102.8k

These are some of my thoughts so far..

• Save them!
• JPK > Swan .. hold 2 trades
• Wait a week or 2, Gawn > Minson, Kmartin > McBean with Rockliff moving to mids, Cox into forwards.
• Wait a week or 2, Gawn > McBean, Kmartin > Rioli
• wait a week or 2, Gawn > McBean, JPK > Griffen, Fyfe > Swan
• Kmartin > Schliothe, JPK > Swan... 1 trade left..

Can you think of any out-of-the-box ideas for ways I can effectively use my last 3 trades (saving them might be as crazy as it gets though )

tack!

Kaere Tracy,
desvaere har jeg ikke et dansk tastatur, saa er jeg noedt til at skrive paa den gamle maade.
Svenks er meget lig dansk, saa jeg er sikker paa du kan laese dette.
Bare saa andre maa laese hvad jeg har skrevet, vil jeg skrive resten paa engelsk.

I will go leftfield, because your own ideas are good, and there's no need for me to walk that path again for you.
Of course, when doing these things, it's hard to predict the future, but that's exactly what we're trying to do.
We are in one sense, a long way from the end of the season, but in another, we're not.
Is it possible you have too much bench cover? The immediate answer is: "No, you can't have too much bench cover!".
But you can, if it comes at the expense of improving your team!
I think JPK and Fyfe might be around 107-108 from here. I also think Swan and Griffin might be around 120 from here.
To go Fyfe to Swan this week costs $83k, and according to SC Gold, JPK to Griffen next week will cost $157.7k, let's call it $180 to allow for "errors".
That's a total of $263k needed and you have $103k, so we need to raise $140-$160k to roll the dice.
The most obvious is Gawn, next week.
So as a leftfield suggestion:
This week: Fyfe to Swan
Next week: Gawn to McBean, JPK to Griffen.
This works with a Fwd upgrade too. So maybe,
Next week: Gawn to McBean, Rocky/JJK to Minson (via Cox) - (even better for more DPP's! )
I think you're in a good enough coverage position to go for two good upgrades, as soon as you can!
Held og lykke

 

[Rowsus]

Rowsus, after our chat last week I took your advice and didn't trade and wait for crouch to fatten up. One week later Vlas pulls a 35 and drops buckets of $$$. I'm worried if I keep waiting he will lose so much that upgrading him to anyone decent will be difficult. I've got $47k plus Vlas makes $407500 for a defender with 1 trade. At that price it doesn't leave much to choose from. Do you think trading Thurlow to X Richards now would be a good idea to allow me to get a quality defender? If yes do you think Hanely will be a good fit leaving me $111900 and 2 trades but still with a ruck to upgrade?

Vlastuin has pretty much backed his Coaches into a corner. It's decision time on him for everyone that has him. Hold onto him as some sort of bench cover, or trade him, up or down, doesn't matter which. His B/E 155 means he will bleed cash now. Change in cash flow, causes a change of circumstances and plans.
I think you might have to promote Mitchell to playing stock, and bone Hodge. There is a danger Hodge will be vested and/or rested in the run to finals, so maybe you need to cash him, and play Mitchell.
Hodge to Atkins, Vlastuin to Hanley this week.
Then Blicavs to Goldstein next week.
It makes your benches look this:

Def: Goodes/Duffield, Thurlow
Mid: Crouch, Atkins (+ Bartel, SJ)
Ruc: Nicholls, McBean (+ Cox, NicNat)
Fwd: Daniher, Staker

Leaving you one trade a bit of cash for back up, and/or a final upgrade.

Alternatively
This week: Duffield, Vlastuin to Richards, Hanley
Next week: Blicavs to Goldstein

making your benches

Def: Richards, Thurlow (+ Staker)
Mid: Hodge/Mitchell, Crouch
Ruc: Nicholl, McBean (+ Cox, NicNat)
Fwd: Staker, Daniher (+ Richards)

and once again, cash and a trade left for back up, or a final upgrade.
Damn that Vlastuin!!!!
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

I'm back for another week Rowsus lol.

I have Watson to deal with and 5 trades. Do I just nip it in the bud and trade in Swan? It would be easier if the pies didnt play first up.

I can also EMG Crouch and take a look at his score. If it's no good I can play Mitchell or trade to someone else.

Keeping it simple is sometimes the best idea.
Watson to Swan, or Dangerfield if you have the coin, seems like the best plan.
What about Vlastuin? Have you decided to keep him as bench cover?
If you haven't, you should bone him to Richards this week.
Good luck

 

[Rowsus]

Damn Rowsus, your time, effort and analysis here simply fantastic. Dips' me lid to you.

Hi praise, from someone I hold in high esteem, and have great respect for.
Thanks, Courtesans.

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Hey Rowsus, instead of the original trades, what do you think about Buddy/Watson >> Stevie J/Hanley?
Especially if Buddy doesn't get up and play this week, I will need to take Caff's score.
Some of the implications that I can foresee with this trade:

1. I get to keep Duffield and that means my DEF is now complete
2. Don't have to worry about playing Mitchell or Rocky, get to play both
3. Might not be able to get in Dangerfield next week with Hrovat, unless I choose to trade out Mitchell instead
4. If I'm gonna use Blicavs to bring in Goldy in the next 2 weeks, there is no real need for Buddy. Will have enough FWD cover
5. Might look a bit thin in the MID for the next 2 weeks

What do you think?

 

[Rowsus]

Hey Rowsus, instead of the original trades, what do you think about Buddy/Watson >> Stevie J/Hanley?
Especially if Buddy doesn't get up and play this week, I will need to take Caff's score.
Some of the implications that I can foresee with this trade:

1. I get to keep Duffield and that means my DEF is now complete
2. Don't have to worry about playing Mitchell or Rocky, get to play both
3. Might not be able to get in Dangerfield next week with Hrovat, unless I choose to trade out Mitchell instead
4. If I'm gonna use Blicavs to bring in Goldy in the next 2 weeks, there is no real need for Buddy. Will have enough FWD cover
5. Might look a bit thin in the MID for the next 2 weeks

What do you think?

It could work, though I'm loathed to recommend anyone trade Buddy out. Having said that, I haven't had him in my team this year, and currently count that as one of my few wins for the year!
You still might end up with Caff's score, as there is a chance NicNat will be a late out.
You might need some luck with price changes, to really make it work, as it's best to hang onto Mitchell if you can.
It's one of those line ball decisions, that you probably won't know which is right, until we see what Buddy can do in the next 8 weeks.
Good luck

 

[Zim^zuM]

Phew traded in swan

 

[Rowsus]

Phew traded in swan

Well done!

 

[Prochard]

SOOOOOOOOOOO CLOSE, Watson>Johnson u saved me from this dangerous bullet.

 

[Rowsus]

SOOOOOOOOOOO CLOSE, Watson>Johnson u saved me from this dangerous bullet.

LOL, if people here make the right decisions it makes me happy, whether I pushed that direction or not! Well done!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

It could work, though I'm loathed to recommend anyone trade Buddy out. Having said that, I haven't had him in my team this year, and currently count that as one of my few wins for the year!
You still might end up with Caff's score, as there is a chance NicNat will be a late out.
You might need some luck with price changes, to really make it work, as it's best to hang onto Mitchell if you can.
It's one of those line ball decisions, that you probably won't know which is right, until we see what Buddy can do in the next 8 weeks.
Good luck

Yeah it's gonna be a tough call this one, guess I have till tomorrow to decide!
If Nic Nat is out, I will have Nicholls's score as Nic Nat is in my rucks.
Seeing how low Dangerfield scored tonight, I might have a chance next week or 2 weeks later

 

[Grant]

Yeah it's gonna be a tough call this one, guess I have till tomorrow to decide!
If Nic Nat is out, I will have Nicholls's score as Nic Nat is in my rucks.
Seeing how low Dangerfield scored tonight, I might have a chance next week or 2 weeks later

Presuming his shoulder is fine. I'm expecting him to miss next week.

 

[Rowsus]

Yeah it's gonna be a tough call this one, guess I have till tomorrow to decide!
If Nic Nat is out, I will have Nicholls's score as Nic Nat is in my rucks.
Seeing how low Dangerfield scored tonight, I might have a chance next week or 2 weeks later

He should be down to $613k, with a B/E of ~173.
I was hoping he'd beat his B/E tonight, and that would just about put him out of reach of those Coaches that didn't have him.
Now nearly everyone with space and trades will have him in the next 2 or 3 weeks!
Oh well!

 

[Monya Meow Meow]

Presuming his shoulder is fine. I'm expecting him to miss next week.

Whose shoulder? Nic Nat or Dangerfield?
A bit lost here sorry