Another way for
@Juzzo to look at it:
QI is 24/73, with a minimum of 5 selections to come.
That makes him 29/(73 +
Points to be scored)
Juzzo is 32/76 with potentially 18 selections to come.
Assuming QI makes the minimum number of selections, he finishes on:
(73 +
P)/29 =2.5172 +
P/29
Juzzo, if he can score
X number of 4's from here is: (76 + 4
X)/(32 +
X)
After complicated back and forths, you get:
X = (132 + 32
P)/(43 -
P)
So, for
Points QI scored by, Juzzo can see how many
4's he needs to score.
ie, if QI scores
6 points from here, then Juzzo needs
X = (132 + 32*
6/(43 -
6) = 8.76,
so Juzzo would need
9 out of
9 4's to catch QI.
Conversely, if QI scored 13 points from his last 5 selections, Juzzo cannot catch him!
X = (132 + 32*13)/(43-13) = 18.2, with Juzzo only having 18 possible picks to come.