Position Forward Discussion
- Thread starter IDIG
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Some fascinating stats here.
If you took a 3 year average of 90+ as a starting point for a proven forward keeper, it looks like only 12 players make the cut.
Of those, arguably only four do not have questionable durability: Martin, Heeney, Hawkins and Gray (who is approaching 32).
Combined with so many discounted potential premiums being available (eg Smith, Buddy, Steven, McDonald etc), going quite mid-priced may be a very logical approach next season.
If you took a 3 year average of 90+ as a starting point for a proven forward keeper, it looks like only 12 players make the cut.
Of those, arguably only four do not have questionable durability: Martin, Heeney, Hawkins and Gray (who is approaching 32).
Combined with so many discounted potential premiums being available (eg Smith, Buddy, Steven, McDonald etc), going quite mid-priced may be a very logical approach next season.
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D Smith:
Avg between 2014-2018: 89.11 from 91
Avg at Bombers: 90.83 from 29
Avg at Bombers:
Disposals: 21.07
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 99.14 from 13 (3/13 below 80, 6/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 22: 84.06 from 16 (6/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
Contested possessions: 8.14
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 100.7 from 10 (2/10 below 80, 4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 9: 85.63 from 19 (7/19 below 80, 13/19 below `00, 2/19 120+)
Tackles: 7.83
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 8: 99.64 from 14 (2/14 below 80, 6/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 8: 82.6 from 15 (7/15 below 80, 11/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
Avg between 2014-2018: 89.11 from 91
Avg at Bombers: 90.83 from 29
Avg at Bombers:
Disposals: 21.07
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 99.14 from 13 (3/13 below 80, 6/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 22: 84.06 from 16 (6/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)
Contested possessions: 8.14
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 100.7 from 10 (2/10 below 80, 4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 9: 85.63 from 19 (7/19 below 80, 13/19 below `00, 2/19 120+)
Tackles: 7.83
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 8: 99.64 from 14 (2/14 below 80, 6/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 8: 82.6 from 15 (7/15 below 80, 11/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)
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I Heeney:
Wins: 100.25 from 36 (16/36 below 100, 8/36 120+)
2017: 100.36 from 14
2018: 103.29 from 14
2019: 94.75 from 8
Losses: 90.52 from 25 (17/25 below 100, 3/25 120+)
2017: 87.75 from 4
2018: 85.86 from 7
2019: 93.64 from 14
Pre Bye: 99.19 from 31 (8/31 below 80, 15/31 below 100, 7/31 120+)
2017: 97.67 from 6
2018: 107 from 13
2019: 91.5 from 12
Post Bye: 91.3 from 30 (8/30 below 80, 18/30 below 100, 4/30 120+)
2017: 97.5 from 12
2018: 82 from 8
2019: 97.1 from 10
2017-2019 Avg: 96.26 from 61
2017-2019 Disposals Avg: 20.44
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.78 from 27 (1/27 below 80, 8/27 below 100, 7/27 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 86.32 from 34 (15/34 below 80, 25/34 below 100, 4/34 120+)
Wins: 100.25 from 36 (16/36 below 100, 8/36 120+)
2017: 100.36 from 14
2018: 103.29 from 14
2019: 94.75 from 8
Losses: 90.52 from 25 (17/25 below 100, 3/25 120+)
2017: 87.75 from 4
2018: 85.86 from 7
2019: 93.64 from 14
Pre Bye: 99.19 from 31 (8/31 below 80, 15/31 below 100, 7/31 120+)
2017: 97.67 from 6
2018: 107 from 13
2019: 91.5 from 12
Post Bye: 91.3 from 30 (8/30 below 80, 18/30 below 100, 4/30 120+)
2017: 97.5 from 12
2018: 82 from 8
2019: 97.1 from 10
2017-2019 Avg: 96.26 from 61
2017-2019 Disposals Avg: 20.44
SC Avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.78 from 27 (1/27 below 80, 8/27 below 100, 7/27 120+)
SC Avg when disposals below 21: 86.32 from 34 (15/34 below 80, 25/34 below 100, 4/34 120+)
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I've got a sneaky eye on Darcy Parish this preseason. In 2 games last year (one Shiel missed) he went back to back 130+'s while getting 10 & 9 clearances with his 31 odd touches. He has played 75 games now and was a high draft pick. I know the Bombers have gotten Hibberd in to help protect Merrett and Shiel more in the midfield but it will be interesting to see who gets increased stoppage time out of McGrath & Parish, maybe our local Bomber guru's have some insight?
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The elephant in the room with Heeney is actually a Horse.
If the Horse in question is cooperative then Heeney is certainly capable of putting up a 105+ season (probably 110+), but as soon as that happens he'll'll run the risk of losing FWD eligibility the following year (at best he'll be riding a very fine line).
If the Horse in question is cooperative then Heeney is certainly capable of putting up a 105+ season (probably 110+), but as soon as that happens he'll'll run the risk of losing FWD eligibility the following year (at best he'll be riding a very fine line).
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I must admit I have looked at Buddy as a possible Pinch Hitter, whereby you pick him with the hope of getting one massive 175 score, roll it through his price changes for three weeks and then immediately sell him off.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
I must admit I have looked at Buddy as a possible Pinch Hitter, whereby you pick him with the hope of getting one massive 175 score, roll it through his price changes for three weeks and then immediately sell him off.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
His big scores (150+) in the last few years have been against:
Brisbane (round 6)
Carlton (round 4)
Collingwood
Freo
GWS (round 5)
West Coast (round 8)
Might still be a good price boost in there, if he can go massive once or twice in that stretch.
I must admit I have looked at Buddy as a possible Pinch Hitter, whereby you pick him with the hope of getting one massive 175 score, roll it through his price changes for three weeks and then immediately sell him off.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
This looked very tasty - although it turns out Buddy has never scored more than 121 against Gold Coast!
His big scores (150+) in the last few years have been against:
Brisbane (round 6)
Carlton (round 4)
Collingwood
Freo
GWS (round 5)
West Coast (round 8)
Might still be a good price boost in there, if he can go massive once or twice in that stretch.
His big scores (150+) in the last few years have been against:
Brisbane (round 6)
Carlton (round 4)
Collingwood
Freo
GWS (round 5)
West Coast (round 8)
Might still be a good price boost in there, if he can go massive once or twice in that stretch.
as long as he gets through the first 6 rounds without injury I’m pretty sure I’d be happy enough selecting him
Franklin is definitely value if he can stay healthy, I hope for his sake he does. He is priced based on his average from last year (72.6) which is his lowest average since his second year in 2006. His career average is 93.2, so it was a very bad year.
The thing I look at is his season PIT (Points In Team) average (basically total SC points scored for the year / 22) - if he isn't playing, you either cop a 0 or a trade. Last year this PIT value was 33 - lower than his minimum score for the year (39). If you kept Buddy for the entire year you would have got 33 points a week on average. Obviously that's not good at all.
Looking at the last 3 years, his season PIT is 71 - this 3 year period includes his second best PIT year in his career (98.3 in 2017). He seems fairly priced based on that - 1.6 points difference. Franklin's career PIT is 77.9 - not much higher than where he is priced either.
Would I select him? No, but only as I got badly burned by key forwards last year which rules him out straight away. I prefer Lynch at a similar price (5.4K cheaper) if you really want a key forward.
(Note: I may be using the incorrect term here - correct me if I'm wrong. Fairly sure I remember reading about this method for measuring players performance last year but I have possibly mucked up some terminology, calculations etc. I think it was coined by Rowsus, so he would have more idea.)
The thing I look at is his season PIT (Points In Team) average (basically total SC points scored for the year / 22) - if he isn't playing, you either cop a 0 or a trade. Last year this PIT value was 33 - lower than his minimum score for the year (39). If you kept Buddy for the entire year you would have got 33 points a week on average. Obviously that's not good at all.
Looking at the last 3 years, his season PIT is 71 - this 3 year period includes his second best PIT year in his career (98.3 in 2017). He seems fairly priced based on that - 1.6 points difference. Franklin's career PIT is 77.9 - not much higher than where he is priced either.
Would I select him? No, but only as I got badly burned by key forwards last year which rules him out straight away. I prefer Lynch at a similar price (5.4K cheaper) if you really want a key forward.
(Note: I may be using the incorrect term here - correct me if I'm wrong. Fairly sure I remember reading about this method for measuring players performance last year but I have possibly mucked up some terminology, calculations etc. I think it was coined by Rowsus, so he would have more idea.)
I think you have it mostly right, other than the fact that PIT assumes you at least get a rookie score in place of your 0. So for mids, when they miss a game, if you substitute in 60 pts from the bench you are computing a PIT60 average.
I think people generally use 50 or 55 for forward rookies, so for a PIT50 average for Buddy, swap in a 50 for each game he misses.
I think people generally use 50 or 55 for forward rookies, so for a PIT50 average for Buddy, swap in a 50 for each game he misses.
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I must admit I have looked at Buddy as a possible Pinch Hitter, whereby you pick him with the hope of getting one massive 175 score, roll it through his price changes for three weeks and then immediately sell him off.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
Then I noticed he plays Gold Coast in Rd 3, the first round that one's score will be in 3 weeks of price hikes.
Pinch hitting would be the only real way I would use him this year, he is just too injury prone for anything else, and not very SC consistent.
This looked very tasty - although it turns out Buddy has never scored more than 121 against Gold Coast!
His big scores (150+) in the last few years have been against:
Brisbane (round 6)
Carlton (round 4)
Collingwood
Freo
GWS (round 5)
West Coast (round 8)
Might still be a good price boost in there, if he can go massive once or twice in that stretch.
His big scores (150+) in the last few years have been against:
Brisbane (round 6)
Carlton (round 4)
Collingwood
Freo
GWS (round 5)
West Coast (round 8)
Might still be a good price boost in there, if he can go massive once or twice in that stretch.
barring something bad happening in preseason I’ll definitely be starting Buddy.. at that price there’s little downside really... until he gets injured of course as long as he gets through the first 6 rounds without injury I’m pretty sure I’d be happy enough selecting him
as long as he gets through the first 6 rounds without injury I’m pretty sure I’d be happy enough selecting him
2007: 95.58 from 12
2008: 115.29 from 17
2010: 113.44 from 9
2011: 119.13 from 15
2012: 127.08 from 12
2013: 96.38 from 16
2014: 108.4 from 15
2016: 95.76 from 14
2017: 104.14 from 14
2018: 118.42 from 12
In 2019 L Franklin:
Recorded his lowest disposals avg since 2006 and only the 2nd time below 15 disposals since 2007 (other occurrence was 2015).
Recorded less than 6 marks a game after recording 6.7, 6.6 and 6.0 in the previous 3 seasons.
Lowest goals avg since 2006 and only the 3rd time since 2007, that he has averaged less than 3 goals a game.
Career low tackles avg
Sydney 2020 Fixture RD1-6
Adel at AO
Ess at SCG
GC at MS
Carl at SCG
GWS at SCG
Bris at Gabba
Avg against above teams since 2007 and last 3:
Adel: 83.13 from 15 (low of 28 and a high of 137, 9/15 below 100, 2/15 120+)
Last 3: 74.33 from 3 (low of 48 and a high of 98, 2/3 below 80, 3/3 below 100)
Ess: 118.83 from 12 (low of 52 and a high of 189, 3/12 below 100, 5/12 120+)
Last 3: 83.67 from 3 (low of 52 and a high of 116, 2/3 below 100)
GC: 81.38 from 8 (low of 41 and a high of 121, 6/8 below 100, 1/8 120+)
Last 3: 77 from 3 (low of 61 and a high of 101, 2/3 below 100)
Carl: 108.43 from 14 (low of 61 and a high of 183, 5/14 below 100, 5/14 120+)
Last 3: 116.33 from 3 (low of 61 and a high of 183, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
GWS: 102.82 from 11 (low of 54 and a high of 161, 3/11 below 100, 2/11 120+)
Last 3: 128.33 from 3 (low of 106 and a high of 161, 1/3 120+)
Bris: 109.25 from 12 (low of 23 and a high of 171, 4/12 below 100, 4/12 120+)
Last 3: 108.67 from 3 (low of 60 and a high of 160, 1/3 below 100, 1/3 120+)
It’s obviously early days and I do appreciate the number breakdown but surely a man who is doing his first preseason in years (is actually on the training track for the first time in a long time) is going to spit out better numbers than last year.. the question marks for me are about his durability but weren’t most of his problems related to the same thing which is now presumably resolved?