Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

[Ironhawk]

Jack Steven and Dev Smith
vs.
Whitfield and Rookie

Whitfield and Rookie for me.

From experience, the gun/rookie combo has a much better success rate than taking a punt on two mid priced players. I do expect Steven and Smith will score reasonably still, and could well be the better option, but I got burned with picking a lot of mid priced players last year and I'm hesitant with all mid pricers now.

Saying that, I think I do currently have both Steven and Smith, I never learn it seems...

 

[Grundogging]

Possibly biased in this one, but I prefer Sicily. Depends how much of a risk taker you are and how much variation you want from your score each week.

Laird is a lot of a safer bet and you know what you are getting every week - consistent 90-110 scores. I expect he'll probably be averaging slightly nearer the lower end of his range (95-100 ish), as I'm not sure about how good the Crows will be this year.

Sicily has a much larger range of scoring, sometimes role dependent, sometimes he just has shockers. These bad games seem to be getting less common now and barring injuries I would expect he spends a lot of time this season in his higher scoring defender role. He has a higher ceiling and lower floor on his scoring compared to Laird, expect to be frustrated with him at times if you do select him, but I'm expecting (hoping?) for an average in the 100-105 range (which will be inconsistent - 70 one week, 140 the next).

Patton will also be key to Sicily's SC fortunes - if he can stay on the paddock and be an effective foil for Gunston, Breust and possibly Lewis then Clarko wont have the temptation to swing Sicily forward as often (or at all) in 2020.

 

[Darkie]

Whitfield and Rookie for me.

From experience, the gun/rookie combo has a much better success rate than taking a punt on two mid priced players. I do expect Steven and Smith will score reasonably still, and could well be the better option, but I got burned with picking a lot of mid priced players last year and I'm hesitant with all mid pricers now.

Saying that, I think I do currently have both Steven and Smith, I never learn it seems...

I agree with your take on the success rate of mid pricers, and am going closer to GnR myself this year than normal (like for like), partly as a result of this.

With that said, I think the success rate of mid pricers is much higher when they're fallen premiums than when they're speculative breakout type players.

Subject to fitness, I'll say Smith and Steven. Smith has 3 of his last 6 seasons at 89+, most of it before he started playing more mid. Steven has 6 of his last 8 seasons at that level, with three of them 103+. They've obviously had injury issues, but Steven was actually very durable until this year, and Smith is only 26, and I think broke the tackles and pressure records in 2018.

Whitfield is a gun player but I think the risk/reward of starting him could be skewed to the downside. He hasn't been at elite level for long, and I reckon players tend to have a softer patch after they reach that level (through a reversion in form, attention, etc). GWS should also have more mids available this year, so perhaps there could be some impact to his role? Might not be huge, but he looks more like an upgrade target to me.

The other thing is that's forward rookies are generally weak, with a shallow pool. The X vs Y probably includes about the 4th or 5th best forward rookie (we will already have #1, 2 and 3 regardless) so if it's like earlier years, it could even be a struggle to find someone who will play the first six weeks or so with any confidence.

I agree with your take generally, but in the circumstances I'm inclined to err the other way.

 

[TopBillings]

Heeney v Greenwood

 

[Ironhawk]

Heeney v Greenwood

I'm assuming you mean Hugh Greenwood, not Levi.

Probably Heeney, even at an extra 50K. I think he is a good chance for more mid time this year and if not, at worst he is still one of the top scoring forwards.

I do expect the Suns to improve a bit this year, they have some good ins, but I am not sure Greenwood will be one to take advantage of this as much as others. They still have a reasonably weak forward group and I'd expect Greenwood will be mainly played there rather than in the guts. I'm not positive where most of his scoring came from at the Crows, but I'd expect a lot of it was when he was playing midfield, rather than forward. Bit of a risk for me, but it could pay off.

 

[Darkie]

I'm assuming you mean Hugh Greenwood, not Levi.

Probably Heeney, even at an extra 50K. I think he is a good chance for more mid time this year and if not, at worst he is still one of the top scoring forwards.

I do expect the Suns to improve a bit this year, they have some good ins, but I am not sure Greenwood will be one to take advantage of this as much as others. They still have a reasonably weak forward group and I'd expect Greenwood will be mainly played there rather than in the guts. I'm not positive where most of his scoring came from at the Crows, but I'd expect a lot of it was when he was playing midfield, rather than forward. Bit of a risk for me, but it could pay off.

Heeney for me for similar reasons with potentially one tweak.

I’m certainly no GC expert, but I would have thought Greenwood would play mid there given how bad they are (?).

With that said, I recall doing some stats last year, and their midfield has been so weak that even the best of them is often below premium level. I was looking at Miles as a stepping stone (similar average required to a forward keeper, maybe an even lower bar?) and concluded that he was a good chance to not be a worthwhile pick, even after dominating in the VFL for a couple of years. As it turns out he averaged 84 this year.

 

[pizza safety]

Zach Merrett vs Elliot Yeo

 

[Ironhawk]

Zach Merrett vs Elliot Yeo

Haven't looked at these two in depth yet, but initial thoughts are I'd probably be leaning towards Merrett.

With Kelly joining, the Eagles now have 6 mids priced at $485K+ (Yeo, Gaff, Kelly, Shuey, Sheed and Redden). Essendon have 3 in this range - Merrett, Shiel and Heppell. I can't see the Eagles maintaining 6 midfielders averaging 89+ consistently, Kelly's points have to come from somewhere. I would expect Yeo's scoring to drop off a bit, and I don't see as much competition for points for Merrett.

 

[pizza safety]

I agree with your take on the success rate of mid pricers, and am going closer to GnR myself this year than normal (like for like), partly as a result of this.

With that said, I think the success rate of mid pricers is much higher when they're fallen premiums than when they're speculative breakout type players.

Subject to fitness, I'll say Smith and Steven. Smith has 3 of his last 6 seasons at 89+, most of it before he started playing more mid. Steven has 6 of his last 8 seasons at that level, with three of them 103+. They've obviously had injury issues, but Steven was actually very durable until this year, and Smith is only 26, and I think broke the tackles and pressure records in 2018.

Whitfield is a gun player but I think the risk/reward of starting him could be skewed to the downside. He hasn't been at elite level for long, and I reckon players tend to have a softer patch after they reach that level (through a reversion in form, attention, etc). GWS should also have more mids available this year, so perhaps there could be some impact to his role? Might not be huge, but he looks more like an upgrade target to me.

The other thing is that's forward rookies are generally weak, with a shallow pool. The X vs Y probably includes about the 4th or 5th best forward rookie (we will already have #1, 2 and 3 regardless) so if it's like earlier years, it could even be a struggle to find someone who will play the first six weeks or so with any confidence.

I agree with your take generally, but in the circumstances I'm inclined to err the other way.

I agree with your take on Devon Smith, with a very bare forward line you'd basically take an 89 average at his price. People say that he won't get as much mid time with Shiel in the team but they forget that he actually improved and got better the more he got to spend time in the midfield in 2018 and could carry that improvement with him and he's averaged 89 and 91 at GWS with much less mid time than he will have next year.

With Whitfield I reckon it's a huge decision not to start him, which could either work incredibly well, or could back fire tremendously. I think he is more or less overpriced, has a had a bad preseason so far, and all of a sudden seems very fragile to injury. Those are very good and legitimate reasons not to start him but his ceiling as a player is completely and utterly ridiculous so you run the risk of being left behind everybody else who is riding an amazing run of form by him. He is prone to a tag but if he's not getting tagged he can put up absurd numbers and then if you don't have him you'll be feeling like "you need him" and it will be hard to be patient and wait for him to calm down. I just don't want to take that risk personally and would rather go down with everybody than be left behind. That said it could be a stroke of genius. As a player I think he's the most talented outside midfielder I can recall seeing since I've been watching footy, he just doesn't quite have the runs on the board yet.

 

[pizza safety]

Haven't looked at these two in depth yet, but initial thoughts are I'd probably be leaning towards Merrett.

With Kelly joining, the Eagles now have 6 mids priced at $485K+ (Yeo, Gaff, Kelly, Shuey, Sheed and Redden). Essendon have 3 in this range - Merrett, Shiel and Heppell. I can't see the Eagles maintaining 6 midfielders averaging 89+ consistently, Kelly's points have to come from somewhere. I would expect Yeo's scoring to drop off a bit, and I don't see as much competition for points for Merrett.

Cheers mate that's pretty much my sentiment regarding Yeo, I'd prefer him to Zerrett if TKelly had not moved to the club and although I still think he has upside in the sense he still only averages 23-24 disposals a game and has some ceiling it's probably negated this year by TKelly's arrival.

Zerrett is just a safe pick at that price point with the potential to go just above 110, I think you need a mid in the 540-590k price range otherwise you will probably compromise the rest of your team.

It looks like bias but I will defend my bias by saying I didn't start or trade in a single Essendon premium last year and even though I was close to getting Merrett a few times as I expressed on here to everyone there was always a better option or trade to be made (in Round 8 I was really about to get Zerrett but I got Dunkley instead)

 

[Ricky Bobby]

I agree with your take on Devon Smith, with a very bare forward line you'd basically take an 89 average at his price. People say that he won't get as much mid time with Shiel in the team but they forget that he actually improved and got better the more he got to spend time in the midfield in 2017 and could carry that improvement with him and he's averaged 89 and 91 at GWS with much less mid time than he will have next year.

With Whitfield I reckon it's a huge decision not to start him, which could either work incredibly well, or could back fire tremendously. I think he is more or less overpriced, has a had a bad preseason so far, and all of a sudden seems very fragile to injury. Those are very good and legitimate reasons not to start him but his ceiling as a player is completely and utterly ridiculous so you run the risk of being left behind everybody else who is riding an amazing run of form by him. He is prone to a tag but if he's not getting tagged he can put up absurd numbers and then if you don't have him you'll be feeling like "you need him" and it will be hard to be patient and wait for him to calm down. I just don't want to take that risk personally and would rather go down with everybody than be left behind. That said it could be a stroke of genius. As a player I think he's the most talented outside midfielder I can recall seeing since I've been watching footy, he just doesn't quite have the runs on the board yet.

Can you shed any light on the bad preseason? Is he injured, had surgery, or just late back to training etc..?

 

[pizza safety]

Can you shed any light on the bad preseason? Is he injured, had surgery, or just late back to training etc..?

https://www.afl.com.au/news/320626/where-s-your-club-at-injury-list-training-latest-who-s-flying

"Lachie Whitfield: The gun Giant had ankle surgery the week after the Grand Final but is already into his running program and will increase his training in January."

So not awful but not the type of preseason you want for an expensive starting pick.

 

[BigRuss]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/320626/where-s-your-club-at-injury-list-training-latest-who-s-flying

"Lachie Whitfield: The gun Giant had ankle surgery the week after the Grand Final but is already into his running program and will increase his training in January."

So not awful but not the type of preseason you want for an expensive starting pick.

Wasn’t just a cleanup either, full ankle reconstruction supposedly.

 

[jaca]

I can wait on him.

 

[Leroy]

Zach Merrett vs Elliot Yeo

I think Yeo is actually a bit underrated. After toe surgery in preseason last year and not hitting a full training load until Feb, he took a while to warm up. But once he did he averaged nearly 114 after R5, including 11 tons and 4 90s and was super consistent.

I had him in until like others have mentioned I remembered Tim Kelly. Not so sure now

 

[pizza safety]

Wasn’t just a cleanup either, full ankle reconstruction supposedly.

Hmmm that's not good if true....I do think he and JKelly have very very high fitness bases to start with which is why they're both able to score well whilst being limited in training. After round 10 in 2018 he played the year with a meniscus injury which meant he couldn't train much and meant he swam a lot. He could have had surgery that would have put him out for 4-6 weeks but decided to keep playing.

It's hard to say what impact this injury has this far out and any significant surgery will impact him to an extent.

"For the rest of the year I only really trained when I had too, so I did a lot of swimming and just made sure I was right to play."

https://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/63685/meet-the-dash-brothers-

 

[pizza safety]

I think Yeo is actually a bit underrated. After toe surgery in preseason last year and not hitting a full training load until Feb, he took a while to warm up. But once he did he averaged nearly 114 after R5, including 11 tons and 4 90s and was super consistent.

I had him in until like others have mentioned I remembered Tim Kelly. Not so sure now

Yeah it's definitely another thing Yeo has going for him and I reckon he could be good but I just don't know what sort of impact TKelly has on him. It can occasionally help a player to have an extra elite player around them but most of the time I feel like it's a negative as it takes away points.

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Wasn’t just a cleanup either, full ankle reconstruction supposedly.

@pizza safety - tried to quote you also but I’m struggling to do the multi quote properly ?

Thanks guys. I hadn’t been paying attention, but this is good to know.

 

[Santoz]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/320626/where-s-your-club-at-injury-list-training-latest-who-s-flying

"Lachie Whitfield: The gun Giant had ankle surgery the week after the Grand Final but is already into his running program and will increase his training in January."

So not awful but not the type of preseason you want for an expensive starting pick.

Wasn’t just a cleanup either, full ankle reconstruction supposedly.

I can wait on him.

So if he needed a full ankle reco you're telling me he played on one fit leg last year and still punched out the average he did?

If he's right to go Round 1 then bloody sign me up.

 

[pizza safety]

Wasn’t just a cleanup either, full ankle reconstruction supposedly.

So the club did say he had ankle reconstruction four days after the GF. https://www.gwsgiants.com.au/news/308846/different-preseason-familiar-for-giants


Apparently it's about a 3 month recovery but only involves ligaments, not bones. It's done when there's repeat sprains and instability in the ankle joint. Sooooo not good and worse than I had expected.