Care to have a go at explaining the Doedee rationale to me mate? I’m just not seeing it, 20 odd games and coming back from an ACL, no sample scoring in 6/6/6, seems to be fairly prominent considering all that so I’m not sure if I’m missing something.
I'm probably not Doedee's biggest advocate, but he's on my shortlist. I've actually had Roberton ahead of him, but was considering switching as more info has come to light. I think the key positives for me are:
- Structurally I quite like having one player around that price point in defence and the forward line, so long as there's a decent candidate. Mid pricers work best there, often because a DEF or FWD eligible player gets a better role, and because the threshold for premium scoring is lower.
- I was erring on Roberton because he's more proven, which obviously hasn't changed. This is usually my tendency.
- Another poster pointed out that Doedee had an injury affected game in 2018, which I hadn't previously realised. If you take this out, he averaged a little over 85. That's very good going for his first year and I'd be surprised if he doesn't have much better than that in him (given it was his first year), the question is whether it is this year.
- I don't have a strong view on the ACL impact at this stage, but that's obviously key. With that said, the year on year natural improvement would usually be highest in year two, which is essentially what he's going into. He's had the benefit of last year's pre season, and potentially this year's as well, so I think expecting improvement makes sense ex the ACL impact. Last year he scored 56 from 27% TOG in his only game. It's an extremely small sample, but nonetheless a positive indicator.
- The sixth best def averaged 98. I think that's actually high versus history, and I would bet against Hurn, Houli and maybe others backing it up. Doedee would "only" need to improve 15% to be scoring at top def level, and he's an obvious lock if you think he will do this (given his discounted price). That's not what I'm expecting, but it is a useful comparison in my view. If he improves by, say, half that then he'd be close enough to a top def to not be worth trading for the sixth best option (say a 91 average vs a 98 average would be around 77 points I find you upgraded him mid year - and a trade is worth more than that). He then gives you $260k of loose change, which is enormous.
- Alternately, if he averages 85, his price will likely get to $425k in the end, or $400k in pretty good time. That's $126k of cash generation even if he doesn't improve at all, which is better than what most of our rookies will likely generate.
So essentially he's a good young player who has already been not too far off keeper level, with an extra preseason or two and some natural improvement in his favour, plus a very cheap price that creates a lot of loose change. Alternately he's a pretty good cash cow (just with another $100k or so invested generating a reasonable return, in a points sense). His fitness is obviously a key risk and something to watch.
What are your thoughts? Is there another mid pricer you prefer, or are you avoiding them down back?
