Opinion Player X vs. Player Y
- Thread starter Darkie
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Dunkley for me.
I trust a breakout year going forward more for a younger player and he’s two years younger. I think it’s more likely to highlight genuine improvement rather than an outlier season, but I do think Bont genuinely improved so I would be happy to pick him. I guess Bont just had a relative breakout year as an elite premium and Dunkley a full blown breakout
128 avg after he got turned into a pure mid from round 7 onwards for Dunkley.
I just reckon Dunkley is more of a monster.
Both take their football very seriously and are determine to be elite.
I trust a breakout year going forward more for a younger player and he’s two years younger. I think it’s more likely to highlight genuine improvement rather than an outlier season, but I do think Bont genuinely improved so I would be happy to pick him. I guess Bont just had a relative breakout year as an elite premium and Dunkley a full blown breakout
128 avg after he got turned into a pure mid from round 7 onwards for Dunkley.
I just reckon Dunkley is more of a monster.
Both take their football very seriously and are determine to be elite.
Overall, Dunkley and Fyfe. I'd probably go for Dunkley and Danger as starters though.
Think I have already reviewed Dunkley and Danger, really there's not much to separate them. Dunkley is coming into his prime, Danger is closer to the end, both put up really good numbers. Probably Dunkley for age reasons and because I expect the Dogs to do better than the Cats this year.
I'm staying clear of Kelly until he can show he can stay injury free consistently - he has missed a lot of games the last two seasons. I expect Fyfe will miss games too, it's why I'm considering him as an upgrade target rather than a starter. Both usually offer good value when they play though, that's undeniable.
Think I have already reviewed Dunkley and Danger, really there's not much to separate them. Dunkley is coming into his prime, Danger is closer to the end, both put up really good numbers. Probably Dunkley for age reasons and because I expect the Dogs to do better than the Cats this year.
I'm staying clear of Kelly until he can show he can stay injury free consistently - he has missed a lot of games the last two seasons. I expect Fyfe will miss games too, it's why I'm considering him as an upgrade target rather than a starter. Both usually offer good value when they play though, that's undeniable.
That's a tough one. I currently have both. As you said both potentially underpriced. If I had to choose one I would go for youth and take Dunkley as Danger is just heading towards that point where numbers begin to fade.
I've chosen Kelly over Fyfe due to both his bye round and an apparently faultless preseason. Possibly slightly underpriced also given his scoring ability.
I've chosen Kelly over Fyfe due to both his bye round and an apparently faultless preseason. Possibly slightly underpriced also given his scoring ability.
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Current team has $200k left over, options are:
Upgrade a Doedee to a Dawson type break out player
Cut a $630k mid (tom Mitchell) to a fwd premium in the mids (Walters/Heeney) and upgrade Doedee to Houli.
Latter leads to 10 premiums, 2 injury returning potn premiums (Doc and Devon), 1 break out (Houston), 4 injury returning <$250k plus one expensive $200k rookie.
Will cut back the last few if the rookies materialise or those returning don't get there.
Upgrade a Doedee to a Dawson type break out player
Cut a $630k mid (tom Mitchell) to a fwd premium in the mids (Walters/Heeney) and upgrade Doedee to Houli.
Latter leads to 10 premiums, 2 injury returning potn premiums (Doc and Devon), 1 break out (Houston), 4 injury returning <$250k plus one expensive $200k rookie.
Will cut back the last few if the rookies materialise or those returning don't get there.
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Houston switching to pure mids always preferred for me. Post round 11 (ave 92.3 excl injury score of 62/71% TOG so maybe could be included) he seemed to have 3 poor scores, one injury impacted, one he played def/fwd and one hard to tell if mids or def.
Dawson is playing the same role and he did have some soft scores whilst playing defence, 4 scores <80 post round 11 (ave 92). Can see him improving to at least 92, not sure he will not be one of those frustrating players who doesn't quite get there. They seem to be the ones who throw a 60's in during SC finals which is my focus.
Both similar post round 11 average (both pivotal weeks for them), the last 4 weeks stand out more for Houston. Neither player is that discounted and if I can take them up to a bona fide premium I will.
What I dislike about Houston is he seems an outside player, CP lowish.
Every season my greatest mistake is being forced to hold onto a weak premium/value defender who started in my team.
Dawson is playing the same role and he did have some soft scores whilst playing defence, 4 scores <80 post round 11 (ave 92). Can see him improving to at least 92, not sure he will not be one of those frustrating players who doesn't quite get there. They seem to be the ones who throw a 60's in during SC finals which is my focus.
Both similar post round 11 average (both pivotal weeks for them), the last 4 weeks stand out more for Houston. Neither player is that discounted and if I can take them up to a bona fide premium I will.
What I dislike about Houston is he seems an outside player, CP lowish.
Every season my greatest mistake is being forced to hold onto a weak premium/value defender who started in my team.
@GrainFedBeef
Given your two posts above, I think a different alternative might help improve your team more.
- Personally I don’t think starting Mitchell is wise given his recovery seems to be lagging. Getting him to a less risky premium would be my priority, especially given he’s not that cheap.
- Doedee looks pretty good to me, and I assume he’s too cheap to fit the bill of the type of player you usually get stuck holding (?). Him to Houli is obviously an upgrade, but for $300k I think there are likely to be much better uses of funds. It wouldn’t totally surprise me if you could straight swap these players at some point.
- Out of interest, who are your returning players under $250k? Maybe putting some cash into making these names more solos could be an option.
Given your two posts above, I think a different alternative might help improve your team more.
- Personally I don’t think starting Mitchell is wise given his recovery seems to be lagging. Getting him to a less risky premium would be my priority, especially given he’s not that cheap.
- Doedee looks pretty good to me, and I assume he’s too cheap to fit the bill of the type of player you usually get stuck holding (?). Him to Houli is obviously an upgrade, but for $300k I think there are likely to be much better uses of funds. It wouldn’t totally surprise me if you could straight swap these players at some point.
- Out of interest, who are your returning players under $250k? Maybe putting some cash into making these names more solos could be an option.
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Thanks Darkie and A47.
The players on the return include Bonar, Hill, Cockatoo and Roberton (not quite 250k). Doedee could easily be swapped for Roberton.
Doedee did reached over $400k last time, although, not a guarantee a complete swap for Houli. The latter has injury risk, although, may not have the downside risk of a Lloyd in his price. Doedee coming off injury does need to bring caution, usually a 10% drop off is expected, same for Tom Mitchell (ACL and broken legs statistically are against them).
Mindful if the rookies don't come, then the $200-250k will need to get a look at more than normal. Last year ran with GC $170k back over Darcy Moore and gave better bang for buck, ideally should have started both. Houli could easily be Daniels/Laird who are a step above a Dawson as proven in their positions (Laird>Daniels).
Last year I did well eliminate as many mid pricers and few expensive $180-250k. Thinking though I I sacrifice one premium, I can improve the early scoring power for only one trade down the line. as long as the returning injured players outperform the bargain rookies.
Darkie - why Dawson over Houston?
The players on the return include Bonar, Hill, Cockatoo and Roberton (not quite 250k). Doedee could easily be swapped for Roberton.
Doedee did reached over $400k last time, although, not a guarantee a complete swap for Houli. The latter has injury risk, although, may not have the downside risk of a Lloyd in his price. Doedee coming off injury does need to bring caution, usually a 10% drop off is expected, same for Tom Mitchell (ACL and broken legs statistically are against them).
Mindful if the rookies don't come, then the $200-250k will need to get a look at more than normal. Last year ran with GC $170k back over Darcy Moore and gave better bang for buck, ideally should have started both. Houli could easily be Daniels/Laird who are a step above a Dawson as proven in their positions (Laird>Daniels).
Last year I did well eliminate as many mid pricers and few expensive $180-250k. Thinking though I I sacrifice one premium, I can improve the early scoring power for only one trade down the line. as long as the returning injured players outperform the bargain rookies.
Darkie - why Dawson over Houston?
I actually don’t really have a preference between those two to be honest. They’re not the type of player I’m keen to start this year, so unless a breakout type looks like an obvious pick, I’ll probably favour an established premium, rookie or a discounted player returning from injury. I think JLT will be key for that type of pick, so I’d be inclined to put the dearer of the two in for now and just decide later, assuming you want one of them. If forced to pick now I’d go the one who should have the better role, which I gather is Houston.
Personally I have Doc, Laird and Sicily ahead of those two, and I think that will be enough for me in that sort of price range.
@NT.Thunder posted some good info on ACLs in the RMT thread earlier today so that may well be of interest.
Your cheap injury players look reasonable (I’m less bullish on Bonar given his NEAFL scoring was only moderate, and AFL is a big jump up in standard), although if you have a few of those, perhaps erring on more reliable premium picks could be desirable to help balance things up.
Personally I have Doc, Laird and Sicily ahead of those two, and I think that will be enough for me in that sort of price range.
@NT.Thunder posted some good info on ACLs in the RMT thread earlier today so that may well be of interest.
Your cheap injury players look reasonable (I’m less bullish on Bonar given his NEAFL scoring was only moderate, and AFL is a big jump up in standard), although if you have a few of those, perhaps erring on more reliable premium picks could be desirable to help balance things up.
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I agree on Dawson, he definitely has potential but I find it hard to gauge what role he'll be playing. Freako tweeted his averages were 91 in defence from 8 games, 98 from 5 games on the wing and 71 from 7 in the forward line from 7. Even though he got moved to defence in the second half of the year he still played a game as a half-forward in round 22. My concern would be that if he's playing a forward role his floor is reasonably low and I just don't know what to make of him unless they clearly define a role for him and I think the Swans won't do that.
I've done a fair bit of research on Houston that I've posted on here (defenders thread post #116). Basically the 3 games where he scored poorly were where he wasn't playing inside midfield and all the other games from round 11 he played inside midfield. The 8 games where he played inside mid from round 11 he averaged 101.5. He doesn't have huge contested possession numbers but he's had a few games where he's won a reasonable amount of inside ball or had big tackle numbers, mostly I think he's playing there due to how good of a kick he is. I like him as a pick as long as he's playing inside midfield as has been spoken about over preseason. I think he showed in the 1st half of the year that even as a defender his floor is not incredibly low, but that 3 game stretch is a concern where he played mostly wing or defence.
Both are at an awkward price where you are paying a lot for somebody who isn't safe and can burn you, so hopefully that won't happen.
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Thanks, good analysis. Agree on question mark over both of them. Houston has a better ceiling the only thing I am mindful of. Dawson heat maps don't support him plus inconsistency in role. if you can find the $$, may be easier too start a Laird type player. Houston not that cheap where he will badly burn you, worst case is he has a few scores over 100 and pushes to $525k-550k.
