Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

[Bermi]

Houston switching to pure mids always preferred for me. Post round 11 (ave 92.3 excl injury score of 62/71% TOG so maybe could be included) he seemed to have 3 poor scores, one injury impacted, one he played def/fwd and one hard to tell if mids or def.

Dawson is playing the same role and he did have some soft scores whilst playing defence, 4 scores <80 post round 11 (ave 92). Can see him improving to at least 92, not sure he will not be one of those frustrating players who doesn't quite get there. They seem to be the ones who throw a 60's in during SC finals which is my focus.

Both similar post round 11 average (both pivotal weeks for them), the last 4 weeks stand out more for Houston. Neither player is that discounted and if I can take them up to a bona fide premium I will.

What I dislike about Houston is he seems an outside player, CP lowish.

Every season my greatest mistake is being forced to hold onto a weak premium/value defender who started in my team.

RE: …….What I dislike about Houston is he seems an outside player, CP lowish……….

I have a note written down that Houston, in Rd11, .....made his midfield debut. Houston attended the second-most centre bounces (22) for the Power — behind only Travis Boak…….

I don't know, maybe his role changed after that game

 

[GrainFedBeef]

RE: …….What I dislike about Houston is he seems an outside player, CP lowish……….

I have a note written down that Houston, in Rd11, .....made his midfield debut. Houston attended the second-most centre bounces (22) for the Power — behind only Travis Boak…….

I don't know, maybe his role changed after that game

Maybe I am being a bit hard, given his CP is around 30-35%, not quite seagull basement level.

What is noticeable round 11 and round 20 he had 7 and 6 clearances, the last three games he had 6 clearance in total.

Many of his clearances are not in the centre it seems, round 20 he had 6 clearances and 1 centre clearance. HIs tackle count can very, seems to get a lot of uncontested marks, hallmarks of a good seagull. Training with the mids a positive.

Hard to pin down what went wrong in his poor games, the heat maps do suggest he played some games on the wing, including round 23 where he scored well. It does suggest a varying role change, slightly impacted by when Ollie Wines was in and out of the team and fit.

 

[freowho]

Can you find that article?

He just said he would play where the team needed him. If that meant forward then he would play forward. Usual AFL speak. He was probably talking to a pesky journalist who had one eye on the story and one eye on their supercoach team.

 

[Ironhawk]

Can you find that article?

It’s the midfield where Dunkley believes his game thrives, but is happy to do what is best for the team.

“My best footy is probably inside, but you look around the teams that have been successful over the last few years – and Richmond is a classic example – you’ve got a lot of players that can go through the midfield and each player has to play their role for the team,” Dunkley said.

“And if my role is a little bit more forward then I will do that for success. My first year I remember that clearly I was playing a lot more forward and I needed to pinch hit in the middle when Bonti was cooked in that finals series.

“I played my role and if that’s what I’ve got to do in 2020 then that’s what I’ve got to do. I’m happy to sacrifice the individual accolades for the team success.”

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/4c97eba602c58b299c0874f9c1119b67

 

[lipsunited]

Rowell ( m6 with hill as d4) vs Dylan Roberton (d4 with hill as f4)

 

[Ironhawk]

Rowell ( m6 with hill as d4) vs Dylan Roberton (d4 with hill as f4)

Rowell.

I am personally not a fan of Hill. I know he is a popular choice, but I'm likely not starting him due to injury risk. Adding Roberton is adding another player coming back from serious injury.

 

[Snowman]

$190k S.Hill. You’d be a brave man to leave him out if he’s right to go rnd1

 

[Bermi]

Thanks for that.
That clarifies my fear, 'if Dunkley is needed there, then he will play forward', as opposed to 'he will play forward'.

By the way, in that article it said that he and Bont again went to USA for more specialised training, that's got to be good.
…...….he credits a trip to the United States with Bontempelli last pre-season for specialist training camps in Los Angeles and San Diego for helping lay the foundations for his performances...…...We went away this year, too, so hopefully we see some more improvement........

 

[Herbie66]

@Darkie or anyone

Do you know roughly what the following players would have to average to make that magic $ 150k profit :-

Doedee
Roberton
Hill

Lynch
Steven
Smith

I guess with the last 3 if they were 90+ they would be almost keepers anyway.

Cheers

 

[Darkie]

@Darkie or anyone

Do you know roughly what the following players would have to average to make that magic $ 150k profit :-

Doedee
Roberton
Hill

Lynch
Steven
Smith

I guess with the last 3 if they were 90+ they would be almost keepers anyway.

Cheers

The approximation I use is:

(Starting price + 150,000) / 5000 = what they would need to average to likely stabilise at this price, late in the season

(Starting price + 150,000 + 25,000) / 5,000 = what they would need to average to likely make $150,000 in reasonable time


So taking Doedee as an example:

(274k + 150k) / 5k = 85

and

(274k + 150k + 25k) / 5k = 90


The second figure will always be 5 more than the first, obviously (25k / 5k = 5). This extra buffer just helps to ensure that the cash gain accrues quickly enough to be useful.

Spike scores will obviously influence price, but if you get the average correct, then any spike score (let's say upwards) is obviously o***et by scores in the other direction (eg a downward spike, or several modestly below average scores).

I agree with your take on the forward options. If you think that Smith makes a $150k profit then either that's a 102 average (if he makes it by around upgrade season) or 97 average (over the season) ... or you're banking on some big spikes happening at the right time.

 

[Herbie66]

The approximation I use is:

(Starting price + 150,000) / 5000 = what they would need to average to likely stabilise at this price, late in the season

(Starting price + 150,000 + 25,000) / 5,000 = what they would need to average to likely make $150,000 in reasonable time


So taking Doedee as an example:

(274k + 150k) / 5k = 85

and

(274k + 150k + 25k) / 5k = 90


The second figure will always be 5 more than the first, obviously (25k / 5k = 5). This extra buffer just helps to ensure that the cash gain accrues quickly enough to be useful.

Spike scores will obviously influence price, but if you get the average correct, then any spike score (let's say upwards) is obviously o***et by scores in the other direction (eg a downward spike, or several modestly below average scores).

I agree with your take on the forward options. If you think that Smith makes a $150k profit then either that's a 102 average (if he makes it by around upgrade season) or 97 average (over the season) ... or you're banking on some big spikes happening at the right time.

Awesome , thanks so much for that.

Definitely gives me a idea now to play around with some different players now

Cheers

 

[Spots]

@Darkie or anyone

Do you know roughly what the following players would have to average to make that magic $ 150k profit :-

Doedee
Roberton
Hill

Lynch
Steven
Smith

I guess with the last 3 if they were 90+ they would be almost keepers anyway.

Cheers

It does depend how quickly you want to make the magical $150k profit too

 

[Agent 47]

Can you find that article?

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/4c97eba602c58b299c0874f9c1119b67

 

[Bermi]

There was an article floating about where Dunkley was talking about playing forward again for the good of the team. Red flag.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...s/news-story/4c97eba602c58b299c0874f9c1119b67

Thanks for finding the article for me, as I was concerned, and needed to be sure, that Dunkley was not in WBDs plans to play forward this year. There seems to be a chance that Dunkley may play forward if injuries occur, but I think that Bontempelli would play forward before Dunkley.

 

[BIGB0Y]

laird vs sicily. thoughts leaning more towards laird.

 

[Darkie]

laird vs sicily. thoughts leaning more towards laird.

I agree. Probably similar ceilings but Laird's floor is higher. He's a bit dearer but I think it's probably worth paying the difference for the certainty/expected points.

I have both and am pretty comfortable with them.

The reason above could make Sicily a better upgrade target, if you can't accommodate both to start with.

 

[Ironhawk]

laird vs sicily. thoughts leaning more towards laird.

Go with what you think. I prefer Sicily personally, as I think he's going to be a dead set must have this year, expecting him to do really well. Probably more wishful thinking as a Hawks fan, I will admit I'm biased on this one.

 

[Bontempele]

laird vs sicily. thoughts leaning more towards laird.

Can't trust Sicily these days.

 

[Herbie66]

The approximation I use is:

(Starting price + 150,000) / 5000 = what they would need to average to likely stabilise at this price, late in the season

(Starting price + 150,000 + 25,000) / 5,000 = what they would need to average to likely make $150,000 in reasonable time


So taking Doedee as an example:

(274k + 150k) / 5k = 85

and

(274k + 150k + 25k) / 5k = 90


The second figure will always be 5 more than the first, obviously (25k / 5k = 5). This extra buffer just helps to ensure that the cash gain accrues quickly enough to be useful.

Spike scores will obviously influence price, but if you get the average correct, then any spike score (let's say upwards) is obviously o***et by scores in the other direction (eg a downward spike, or several modestly below average scores).

I agree with your take on the forward options. If you think that Smith makes a $150k profit then either that's a 102 average (if he makes it by around upgrade season) or 97 average (over the season) ... or you're banking on some big spikes happening at the right time.

I have just used your second formula to calculate some players :-

Doedee 89.74
Roberton 87.08
Hill 73.12
Young 71.06
Starcevich 64.54
Williamson 64.26
Brander 61.60

Rowell 76.46
Anderson 75.56

Lynch 112.26
Steven 107.34
Smith 102.16
Bonar 75.56
Flanders 67.46
Cockatoo 64.66

Totally agree that if you start Lynch , Steven & Smith you would be hoping they would be keepers.

Not sure if Doedee & Roberton can get to 80+ or not.

Was interesting to calculate , sometimes though perceived JS might be better for some of these rookies.

 

[teatai]

J Dawson D/F vs H Greenwood M/F (for POD F3 possibly)