Opinion Player X vs. Player Y

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I agree with the general premise that Steven carries risks and questions remain whether he can return premium scores as a forward, but
I'm reticent in arriving at that position to place too much stock in the proclivity of St Kilda to get arse-****ed at the trade table, particularly in respect of a player who seeks a trade to another club to try to address mental health issues.
 
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Not necessarily but did you ever see a player get traded for a pick that low and average premium numbers the next year ? Not saying he’s defective just saying it raises suspicion that he’s not worth much at the moment.
Just last year Carlton got Nic Newman for a fourth-round pick and he averaged 97. I'm sure there are a few more examples throughout the years.
 
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Wasn't that in reference to my original point that him being traded for pick 57 raises suspicion and makes me question whether he will be a premo?
I agree with the general premise that Steven carries risks and questions remain whether he can return premium scores as a forward, but
I'm reticent in arriving at that position to place too much stock in the proclivity of St Kilda to get arse-****ed at the trade table, particularly in respect of a player who seeks a trade to another club to try to address mental health issues.
Geelong held all the cards in that trade, proclivities aside.... but I personally won't be starting with him unless he does something remarkable in the JLT..
 

Darkie

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@pizza safety

Let’s say you factor in the injury and trade risk for Kelly (say via a PIT average less the probability weighted cost of a trade?) would you say he is cheap?

If so, I think he’s viable for you. Otherwise he seems like an unnecessary risk as a starting pick. You can obviously always upgrade into him.
 
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Darkie

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Rowell. Haven't seen him play, but isn't he meant to be as good/better than Walsh? If so, it's an easy decision.

Bonar looked decent in the NEAFL, but that is very low standard compared to AFL from what I understand. I'm always a bit hesitant with players at new clubs, but he should be able to get more of a chance at the Roos.
Exactly. I believe he averaged 94 which I think is a strong sign that he won't score well at AFL level. Some players rack up massive scores in the NEAFL.
 
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I think I prefer option 1 if both look very good in preseason, otherwise option 2.

Jack Steven carries a number of risks and I think we're all failing to look at. My concerns are the following:

- He has been spoken of by the club as playing a mid-forward role. In the past when picking mid-forwards I've always picked guys who were going to get a jump in midfield time - so if I knew that they were played 55% midfield and had 4 clearances per game the year prior with x number of contested possessions, disposals and tackles I could project how those numbers and scores would increase with more midfield time. With the coaches and preseason predicting a jump in midfield time I'd pick them and once they got moved to more midfield time contested possessions, clearances, disposals and tackles would go up. This is how I picked Devon Smith, Tim Kelly and Travis Boak as starters over the past two years.
Spot on. Houston looks in this camp, Dawson doesnt IMO. Anyone else standing out to do research on. Smith back from injury one to watch. Just building momentum on researching of players.
 
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My latest team had this interesting x v y:
Gawn and Rowell (ie. Walsh of 2020, maybe ??)
vs
NN and Walsh (Walsh of 2019 :p)

In 2018, NN averaged 102 up to the bye and missed one match. At this point in his career he was already having his TOG managed, so it sat ~60%. So probably a realistic estimate is 100. If I think Walsh goes at 100 and Rowell at 70, with Gawn at 125 then perhaps you're ahead on points with option B.

Trade into Gawn after the bye and you avoid a R13 mess?
 
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My latest team had this interesting x v y:
Gawn and Rowell (ie. Walsh of 2020, maybe ??)
vs
NN and Walsh (Walsh of 2019 :p)

In 2018, NN averaged 102 up to the bye and missed one match. At this point in his career he was already having his TOG managed, so it sat ~60%. So probably a realistic estimate is 100. If I think Walsh goes at 100 and Rowell at 70, with Gawn at 125 then perhaps you're ahead on points with option B.

Trade into Gawn after the bye and you avoid a R13 mess?
I would be leaning to the Gawn/Rowell combo personally. NN/Walsh could work out better, but I'm not confident NN will score 100 to his bye. I'd like to see it, as I love watching him when he is in form, but he misses way too much footy for me to pick him.
 
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I would be leaning to the Gawn/Rowell combo personally. NN/Walsh could work out better, but I'm not confident NN will score 100 to his bye. I'd like to see it, as I love watching him when he is in form, but he misses way too much footy for me to pick him.
Yeah I probably agree as well really.
I think I'm looking for ways to be different and find an edge but got a feeling this isn't it.
 
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My latest team had this interesting x v y:
Gawn and Rowell (ie. Walsh of 2020, maybe ??)
vs
NN and Walsh (Walsh of 2019 :p)

In 2018, NN averaged 102 up to the bye and missed one match. At this point in his career he was already having his TOG managed, so it sat ~60%. So probably a realistic estimate is 100. If I think Walsh goes at 100 and Rowell at 70, with Gawn at 125 then perhaps you're ahead on points with option B.

Trade into Gawn after the bye and you avoid a R13 mess?
Don’t mind it, but wouldn’t pick Walsh if you only see him averaging 100. Would leave you with a subpar M8.
 
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Spot on. Houston looks in this camp, Dawson doesnt IMO. Anyone else standing out to do research on. Smith back from injury one to watch. Just building momentum on researching of players.
Hi GFB
Are you saying No to Houston, Yes to Dawson and Yes to Devon Smith as possibilities?
 
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Laird v Houston
Heeney v Wingard
Laird. Super consistent, you know you'll get a keeper score. Selecting Houston has some level of risk - up to you if you want to take it.

Heeney. I think the Hawks will use Wingard up forward at times, Heeney has shown better form as a forward. If Wingard was guaranteed significant midfield time I'd consider him more.

I know I did pick the more expensive options in both, but generally you get what you pay for.
 
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Spot on. Houston looks in this camp, Dawson doesnt IMO. Anyone else standing out to do research on. Smith back from injury one to watch. Just building momentum on researching of players.
Cheers GFB. I’m the other way round on Houston and Dawson, what’s your reasoning for why one is good but not the other?
 
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