Position Defender Discussion

[BigRuss]

I'm struggling with my backline.
Laird is the only one I really like and even then only because it feels safe.
I can't bring myself to pick Lloyd at his price.
Hurn has peaked but is still probably a decent pick.
Not having a hot Docherty and Sicily scares me so they are in contention.
No one else stands out.
Houston, Dawson and Blakely are on my watch list. I think Blakely had issues with Ross and he has shown he can score at a mid keeper level when he is up and about. Freo could give us lots of breakout players this year with the chains being released but who?
I'm having trouble narrowing the field on other lines so I'm hoping the good rookies are in the backline. Laird and 7 rookies.

The backline seems very cut and paste for me this year, can pretty confidently take the underpriced Laird, Sicily and Doc and be fairly confident you have 3 of the top 8 backs for under 1.5mil. Hinges on the rookies turning up and Hill being fit but at this point in the year there’s no point worrying about that.

The more I tinker with my side the more I think that a safe backline coupled with a risky forward line will end up the “correct” structure this season.

 

[pizza safety]

I'm struggling with my backline.
Laird is the only one I really like and even then only because it feels safe.
I can't bring myself to pick Lloyd at his price.
Hurn has peaked but is still probably a decent pick.
Not having a hot Docherty and Sicily scares me so they are in contention.
No one else stands out.
Houston, Dawson and Blakely are on my watch list. I think Blakely had issues with Ross and he has shown he can score at a mid keeper level when he is up and about. Freo could give us lots of breakout players this year with the chains being released but who?
I'm having trouble narrowing the field on other lines so I'm hoping the good rookies are in the backline. Laird and 7 rookies.

Haha yeah I agree Laird is the only safe and valuable selection in the back line and I really rate the pick, but I would probably add Docherty to that category as well.

Even if he's done two ACL's he's coming off a very high base with a 114 average in 2017, so even if he drops 20 points he'll still be at 94 - very worthwhile at that price. Brodie Smith came back and actually improved his average after the ACL and I trust Docherty to have a very high level of determination and come back as well as possible given the circumstances. He does run a lot but I'd say he doesn't rely heaps on pace or lateral movement. He should also see a degree of points come from the new kick in rule.

Like Houston a spick personally, I'm ok on the Dawson pick but don't love it - especially with that awful bye and Blakely could be a genius pick but carries some risk - still think it's a decent option at a good price, particularly if you have a swing player who can help you out if he doesn't work - there should be a few forward options to trade him to.

 

[Grundogging]

I'm surprised he made it up to 100 contested possessions for the season. More than I remembered.

The proximity of an opponent needed for a contested possession tends to stretch a bit for the seagull at the SCG.

 

[THCLT]

Apology if this has been discussed already (haven't looked back at previous post as I'm doing this on the fly whilst on holidays).

Any coaches has an opinion on Harris Andrews...?

He was 'hot' property at some point over the past 2 seasons and is someone who has my interest at that price point. Has shown glimpses that he can absolutely boss some games, but his inconsistency through a season has me questioning his potential credential as an out and out DEF premium.

If we use Rance as his benchmark, then maybe he doesn't have much scope for upsides based on his output from the past 2 seasons. I don't think that he's a ball magnet in their transition out of defence like say a Hurley is for ESS, so hard to see any further padding up of his scorings to date.

 

[Ben's Beasts]

Apology if this has been discussed already (haven't looked back at previous post as I'm doing this on the fly whilst on holidays).

Any coaches has an opinion on Harris Andrews...?

He was 'hot' property at some point over the past 2 seasons and is someone who has my interest at that price point. Has shown glimpses that he can absolutely boss some games, but his inconsistency through a season has me questioning his potential credential as an out and out DEF premium.

If we use Rance as his benchmark, then maybe he doesn't have much scope for upsides based on his output from the past 2 seasons. I don't think that he's a ball magnet in their transition out of defence like say a Hurley is for ESS, so hard to see any further padding up of his scorings to date.

As an owner from the start last season, I won’t be going near him this season.

There were some games where he took a few intercept marks and/or had a few spoils and/or used the ball well which obviously equates to good SC scores but more often than not he just didn’t get near the footy enough to score well.

Too much of a key defender role at this stage in his career but a switch to a more rebounding role would have me very interested. I can’t see that happening though as he’s one of the best one-on-one defenders in the league imo.

 

[Darkie]

Apology if this has been discussed already (haven't looked back at previous post as I'm doing this on the fly whilst on holidays).

Any coaches has an opinion on Harris Andrews...?

He was 'hot' property at some point over the past 2 seasons and is someone who has my interest at that price point. Has shown glimpses that he can absolutely boss some games, but his inconsistency through a season has me questioning his potential credential as an out and out DEF premium.

If we use Rance as his benchmark, then maybe he doesn't have much scope for upsides based on his output from the past 2 seasons. I don't think that he's a ball magnet in their transition out of defence like say a Hurley is for ESS, so hard to see any further padding up of his scorings to date.

I owned him last year, and he and Westhoff were the bane of my existence for periods through the season. He can score extremely quickly, but equally he can go missing for large periods of time, and can be deeply frustrating to own as a result.

He is only 23 and was extremely highly rated (top couple in the competition) on some stats even a year ago, so he's definitely not on my never again list, but personally I'd need to see him much cheaper to appeal this year. Hodge's departure could potentially help, but I can't see a specific reason to take a risk on him as things stand. I'm inclined to wait until he shows he can sustain premium scoring before seriously considering him again.

 

[Connoisseur]

Apology if this has been discussed already (haven't looked back at previous post as I'm doing this on the fly whilst on holidays).

Any coaches has an opinion on Harris Andrews...?

He was 'hot' property at some point over the past 2 seasons and is someone who has my interest at that price point. Has shown glimpses that he can absolutely boss some games, but his inconsistency through a season has me questioning his potential credential as an out and out DEF premium.

If we use Rance as his benchmark, then maybe he doesn't have much scope for upsides based on his output from the past 2 seasons. I don't think that he's a ball magnet in their transition out of defence like say a Hurley is for ESS, so hard to see any further padding up of his scorings to date.

As an owner from the start last season, I won’t be going near him this season.

There were some games where he took a few intercept marks and/or had a few spoils and/or used the ball well which obviously equates to good SC scores but more often than not he just didn’t get near the footy enough to score well.

Too much of a key defender role at this stage in his career but a switch to a more rebounding role would have me very interested. I can’t see that happening though as he’s one of the best one-on-one defenders in the league imo.

I owned him last year, and he and Westhoff were the bane of my existence for periods through the season. He can score extremely quickly, but equally he can go missing for large periods of time, and can be deeply frustrating to own as a result.

He is only 23 and was extremely highly rated (top couple in the competition) on some stats even a year ago, so he's definitely not on my never again list, but personally I'd need to see him much cheaper to appeal this year. Hodge's departure could potentially help, but I can't see a specific reason to take a risk on him as things stand. I'm inclined to wait until he shows he can sustain premium scoring before seriously considering him again.

H Andrews:






A drop in his marks and disposals in 2019 would likely explain his performance last season in failing to deliver/live up to our expectations.

H Andrews since 2018:
SC Avg: 85.51 from 37
Disposals Avg: 14.35 from 37

SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 15: 104.29 from 17
SC avg when disposals below 15: 69.55 from 20

SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 12: 93.81 from 27
SC avg when disposals below 12: 63.1 from 10

SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 10: 90.63 from 32
SC avg when disposals below 10: 52.8 from 5

2018:
1 match below 10 disposals
3 matches below 12 disposals
7 matches below 15 disposals

2019:
4 matches below 10 disposals
7 matches below 12 disposals
13 matches below 15 disposals

 

[Connoisseur]

J Howe:





2019 was Howe's 1st season at Collingwood below 90 (avg of 92.67 from 58 matches prior)
2019- Lowest disposals avg since 2015, lowest tackles avg since 2013, highest DE% of his career, lowest contested marks avg since 2015.
3/19 matches below 10 disposals in 2019 compared to 3 below 10 disposals from his previous 68 matches.

Wins: 85.57 from 42 (31/42 below 100, 4/42 120+)
2016: 101.25 from 8
2017: 87.33 from 9
2018: 86.45 from 11
2019: 74.79 from 14

Losses: 92.94 from 34 (19/34 below 100, 7/34 120+)
2016: 85.83 from 12
2017: 96.36 from 11
2018: 101 from 6
2019: 92.8 from 5

 

[Connoisseur]

J Crisp:





Recorded career high averages in disposals and marks in 2019 but dropped by approximately 7 to an avg below 90.

 

[NT.Thunder]

J Crisp:
View attachment 15076
View attachment 15077

View attachment 15078

Recorded career high averages in disposals and marks in 2019 but dropped by approximately 7 to an avg below 90.

Started him last year, carried all season. Player that I love watching but his DT to SC ratio was cringe worthy.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

J Howe:
View attachment 15068

View attachment 15069

View attachment 15070
2019 was Howe's 1st season at Collingwood below 90 (avg of 92.67 from 58 matches prior)
2019- Lowest disposals avg since 2015, lowest tackles avg since 2013, highest DE% of his career, lowest contested marks avg since 2015.
3/19 matches below 10 disposals in 2019 compared to 3 below 10 disposals from his previous 68 matches.

Wins: 85.57 from 42 (31/42 below 100, 4/42 120+)
2016: 101.25 from 8
2017: 87.33 from 9
2018: 86.45 from 11
2019: 74.79 from 14

Losses: 92.94 from 34 (19/34 below 100, 7/34 120+)
2016: 85.83 from 12
2017: 96.36 from 11
2018: 101 from 6
2019: 92.8 from 5

D.Moores move to the backline must have affected Howe.
I assumed this early in the season last year then forgot about it due to owning Moore from the start and Howe becoming irrelevant.

 

[Connoisseur]

D.Moores move to the backline must have affected Howe.
I assumed this early in the season last year then forgot about it due to owning Moore from the start and Howe becoming irrelevant.

J Howe:
Avg with D Moore: 72.5 from 12
Avg without D Moore: 91.57 from 7

 

[Tails]

J Howe:
Avg with D Moore: 72.5 from 12
Avg without D Moore: 91.57 from 7

Do have my eye on Crisp ...

 

[Grundogging]

Apology if this has been discussed already (haven't looked back at previous post as I'm doing this on the fly whilst on holidays).

Any coaches has an opinion on Harris Andrews...?

He was 'hot' property at some point over the past 2 seasons and is someone who has my interest at that price point. Has shown glimpses that he can absolutely boss some games, but his inconsistency through a season has me questioning his potential credential as an out and out DEF premium.

If we use Rance as his benchmark, then maybe he doesn't have much scope for upsides based on his output from the past 2 seasons. I don't think that he's a ball magnet in their transition out of defence like say a Hurley is for ESS, so hard to see any further padding up of his scorings to date.

I don't think Andrews has been the same since he was laid out - might get a bit more confidence back this year but I think the days of him being a fearless intercept marker and elite spoiler of the ball with superior timing on both fronts might be over to some degree. The evenness of the Lions list and increased ability to turn the ball over in the midfield has probably impacted on his opportunities a bit too, although a player like Josh Walker (who eats into intercept marks in the D50) leaving wouldn't hurt.

 

[Santoz]

If you find the time please @Connoisseur, could you please do Nic Newman?

I did a quick search and don't think he's been covered yet.

I've got my eye on him as a Doch alternative as Doc may take a while to get going again and is an injury risk in a season with many decent mid priced forward options.

 

[Diabolical]

What changed for Dane Rampe last year?

A long history of 75-85 averages, then from round 11 onwards he averaged around 105. Could this continue?

I’m just going through the defenders list looking for PODs as my defence feels a bit vanilla with all the higher ownership players. He caught my eye as he wasn’t someone that I had on my shortlist.

 

[Connoisseur]

If you find the time please @Connoisseur, could you please do Nic Newman?

I did a quick search and don't think he's been covered yet.

I've got my eye on him as a Doch alternative as Doc may take a while to get going again and is an injury risk in a season with many decent mid priced forward options.

N Newman:






Career Disposals Avg: 20.42 from 48
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.16 from 19 (1/19 below 80, 8/19 below 100, 4/19 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 21: 72.14 from 29 (15/29 below 80, 29/29 below 100)

 

[Santoz]

N Newman:
View attachment 15100

View attachment 15101

View attachment 15102

Career Disposals Avg: 20.42 from 48
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.16 from 19 (1/19 below 80, 8/19 below 100, 4/19 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 21: 72.14 from 29 (15/29 below 80, 29/29 below 100)

Thanks heaps for that.

21 touches a game definitely isn't out of the realms of possibility for him I feel.

 

[chels]

Thanks heaps for that.

21 touches a game definitely isn't out of the realms of possibility for him I feel.

I was disappointed when Sydney traded him - am an unabashed Nic Newman fan. His number of touches per games is only partly down to Nic. If the coach says "don't leave the goal square" then we will be disappointed. However, if he is given a carte blanche to use that left boot then the sky is the limit. I am stuffed if I can figure out how Docherty's return, Daisy's departure, Simmo's pension, Teague's game plan (and no doubt other factors) affect him.

 

[All is Wells]

N Newman:
View attachment 15100

View attachment 15101

View attachment 15102

Career Disposals Avg: 20.42 from 48
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 21: 108.16 from 19 (1/19 below 80, 8/19 below 100, 4/19 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 21: 72.14 from 29 (15/29 below 80, 29/29 below 100)

Averaging 4.5 points per touch is insane numbers, had barely considered him until this point. Like @chels said, Simpson being phased out and Thomas gone can only help but with Docherty back he might lose a few kicks outs. Will be interesting to see how he goes during the JLT