Opinion Player X vs. Player Y
- Thread starter Darkie
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Tough one. I think both are in for good years. I guess it'd depend on the rest of your forwards and mids - Whitfield is almost a guaranteed lock for being one of the top 6 forwards this year, Bont is a very good chance of being a top 8 mid, but not a certainty. Based on that - Whitfield if I had to choose one with no other data.
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Agree with Ironhawk, Whitfield more probability of being a top player in his row. Risk for Whitfield is injury and Bont is role.
Interesting last 4 games of the year where Bont and Dunkley didn't have big scores in the same game (although scores respectable for the lower one). Heatmap suggests Bont's role was still changing and when he did play more midfield time, it may have impacted Dunkley.
Currently have Dunkley and even if his role is mainly mid, nervous that his scores could be lower if Bont play more mids. Mindful that Doggies won those four game. The final Bont barely picked up a centre clearance, which I think was driven by the DeBoer tag and he played elsewhere.
Interesting last 4 games of the year where Bont and Dunkley didn't have big scores in the same game (although scores respectable for the lower one). Heatmap suggests Bont's role was still changing and when he did play more midfield time, it may have impacted Dunkley.
Currently have Dunkley and even if his role is mainly mid, nervous that his scores could be lower if Bont play more mids. Mindful that Doggies won those four game. The final Bont barely picked up a centre clearance, which I think was driven by the DeBoer tag and he played elsewhere.
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Neale vs Dunkley for 5th mid (can see last post is questioning Dunkley).
The tag was always going to come Neale's way, took a bit longer than I thought last year, however, he did wear a few. although no correlation in poor score and Brisbane losing so maybe gets less attention 2020.
Dunkley blistering 2H, does he get more attention. Think in GWS final tag was on Bont and when he went forward it went to Dunkley. still did solid. Risk is Bont more mid time will limit the ceiling for Dunkley.
R12 vs R14 bye.
The tag was always going to come Neale's way, took a bit longer than I thought last year, however, he did wear a few. although no correlation in poor score and Brisbane losing so maybe gets less attention 2020.
Dunkley blistering 2H, does he get more attention. Think in GWS final tag was on Bont and when he went forward it went to Dunkley. still did solid. Risk is Bont more mid time will limit the ceiling for Dunkley.
R12 vs R14 bye.
I'm not seeing a down side for either. A down game scoring over 100 means a player is still better than just about anyone else in the comp. Especially as a M5. Both only had 2 really low games in the 80-90 range (post R7 for Dunkley), the rest 100+. Both lifted their average significantly - Neale at a new club, Dunkley with more mid time.
Pick both if you can. Dunkley is cheaper and probably the way to go. I personally slightly prefer Neale, I think most will say Dunkley, but I'd be more than happy with both.
Pick both if you can. Dunkley is cheaper and probably the way to go. I personally slightly prefer Neale, I think most will say Dunkley, but I'd be more than happy with both.
Given you’re pivoting an M-F rookie and that F6 is unchanged and solid in both cases, I think this is a tough call. I agree with a lot of what has been posted above.
Overall I see Whitfield as higher upside and downside risk, Bont as the safer pick - so I’d probably choose based on how much of your “risk budget” is left over after your picks elsewhere.
Overall I see Whitfield as higher upside and downside risk, Bont as the safer pick - so I’d probably choose based on how much of your “risk budget” is left over after your picks elsewhere.
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I think it's fair to assume that Dunkley will play the vast majority of his time in the midfield given how well he played there. Neale has never really averaged more than 112ish over a long period of time (he started the season like a house on fire), and can struggle with the tag (while Bont and Macrae will always get tagged before Dunkley). So I'd be more confident in Dunkley maintaining his average.
Interested in coaches opinion on the following value/break out candidates as I feel that these core group of players will be pivotal in deciding our overall structure and starting team. I've provided my brief summation below as a starting point, feel free to add in yours.
S Docherty - Was on his way to becoming one of those rare SC defender capable of punching out midfield like numbers prior to the misfortune of rupturing his ACL's in consecutive preseasons. No doubt over his ability to score at Keeper level, but how quickly can he return to those lofty numbers? He's ticking all the right boxes thus far during the preseason so here's hoping.
S Coniglio - The captaincy indicates that he's invested in the club long term. Has the capacity to go big, but this is countered by his tendency to throw in some really bad scores, not a desirable traits for one of our precious starting midfield spot. Add in the too many chiefs at GWS and it makes it hard to start him with any confidence.
D Smith - A stellar 1st season in the red & black, but was that one out of the box...? Signs during his 7 games prior to his season ending injury last year points towards that being the case. Nudging towards the 150 games mark and has only 2 seasons in the 90+ range. The Bombers are crying out for more bigger body midfielders so does he fit that mould...?
J Steven - Will be 30yo in March and I'm not sure whether footy is his most important priority at this point in his life. Coupled with the 'old man' calf niggles and that's enough of a red flag for mine.
T Doedee - Averaged 82 in his first season so it's not beyond him. Could be a more than viable alternative to a high end Rookie who we know can score if he returns to his intercepting role.
D Roberton - If the doctors gives him the all-clear to start the season, then he has to be in serious discussion. Unlike other injuries, his heart condition can be treated and monitored and he's had some time to do that.
D Houston - Word is that he's going to continue through the midfield similar to his back half of 2019 where he put up some encouraging numbers.
J Dawson - Like Houston above, relished the switch to the backline post bye but no confirmation from any sources whether this is going to be a thing for 2020.
Both Houston and Dawson are in that awkward price range where the margin for success or failure is a fine one. They have age on their side and their DPP status provides some comfort. I'm of the opinion that whether you take none, one or both will be dependent on how many other from the above you're carrying in your starting team. Regardless of how confident you are with any of the above selections, they all carry an element of risk to my eyes.
S Docherty - Was on his way to becoming one of those rare SC defender capable of punching out midfield like numbers prior to the misfortune of rupturing his ACL's in consecutive preseasons. No doubt over his ability to score at Keeper level, but how quickly can he return to those lofty numbers? He's ticking all the right boxes thus far during the preseason so here's hoping.
S Coniglio - The captaincy indicates that he's invested in the club long term. Has the capacity to go big, but this is countered by his tendency to throw in some really bad scores, not a desirable traits for one of our precious starting midfield spot. Add in the too many chiefs at GWS and it makes it hard to start him with any confidence.
D Smith - A stellar 1st season in the red & black, but was that one out of the box...? Signs during his 7 games prior to his season ending injury last year points towards that being the case. Nudging towards the 150 games mark and has only 2 seasons in the 90+ range. The Bombers are crying out for more bigger body midfielders so does he fit that mould...?
J Steven - Will be 30yo in March and I'm not sure whether footy is his most important priority at this point in his life. Coupled with the 'old man' calf niggles and that's enough of a red flag for mine.
T Doedee - Averaged 82 in his first season so it's not beyond him. Could be a more than viable alternative to a high end Rookie who we know can score if he returns to his intercepting role.
D Roberton - If the doctors gives him the all-clear to start the season, then he has to be in serious discussion. Unlike other injuries, his heart condition can be treated and monitored and he's had some time to do that.
D Houston - Word is that he's going to continue through the midfield similar to his back half of 2019 where he put up some encouraging numbers.
J Dawson - Like Houston above, relished the switch to the backline post bye but no confirmation from any sources whether this is going to be a thing for 2020.
Both Houston and Dawson are in that awkward price range where the margin for success or failure is a fine one. They have age on their side and their DPP status provides some comfort. I'm of the opinion that whether you take none, one or both will be dependent on how many other from the above you're carrying in your starting team. Regardless of how confident you are with any of the above selections, they all carry an element of risk to my eyes.
Thanks all! Good points about Whitfield more likely to be in his top bracket. Probably why Whitfield’s ownership % is 60% and Bont is 10%.
I’m drawn to Bont more than Dunkley this season fwiw. I’m always skeptical in taking a player after a big +20 ppg boost. I think it was Rowsus historical analysis that suggested that much more often than not, a player that goes +20ppg over 102avg for the first time, doesn’t improve their average in the next season for whatever reason. I remember not too long ago, I avoided starting MCrouch, JKelly and Oliver right after their huge breakout years. Only Oliver was worth starting that year. Dunkley will be a wait and see for me. I reckon Bont/Macrae are the better players AFL wise.
I’m drawn to Bont more than Dunkley this season fwiw. I’m always skeptical in taking a player after a big +20 ppg boost. I think it was Rowsus historical analysis that suggested that much more often than not, a player that goes +20ppg over 102avg for the first time, doesn’t improve their average in the next season for whatever reason. I remember not too long ago, I avoided starting MCrouch, JKelly and Oliver right after their huge breakout years. Only Oliver was worth starting that year. Dunkley will be a wait and see for me. I reckon Bont/Macrae are the better players AFL wise.
Few quick thoughts!
Doch - too cheap not to start for me considering historical potential. I think his ownership % will be too high not to start either. Seems like his preseason has been pretty smooth so far so I would just lock him in and deal with whatever happens during the season.
Cogs - I was initially keen at $550k but he seems to be a step below the more elite mids at 590k+. Feels way too expensive to be a list clogger. Could give you a 105-108 avg but also with injury risk. Pass for me
DSmith - seems like skeptics are growing after seeing his ownership %. Lock and load for me at $330k. If he can average 90-95, that’s clearly keeper level. Has done a 90 avg before even as a forward. He will still get enough mid time imo.
J Steven - I was keen before the calf injury. Comment that he will be “eased” into the season as a forward initially has me concerned. Crossed off but still a watch if he shows fitness and gets a mid role.
T Doedee/Roberton - both offer value but I think Roberton offers more. Roberton has gone ~90 before. Doedee is more 80-85. Traditionally def rookies are better scoring so I think it’s not worth getting both of these guys, pick only one. I prefer Roberton - better ceiling and he seems to be training okay too. Roberton could be a quasi keeper as well if he pushes a 90avg. Should get the kick outs.
Houston - worried about role changing throughout the year. Watch for me but currently not that bullish on him.
Dawson - D/F is huge. Also a watch for me. Can the Sydney back line produce two def keepers...? I’d prefer Houston to Dawson at this stage.
Doch - too cheap not to start for me considering historical potential. I think his ownership % will be too high not to start either. Seems like his preseason has been pretty smooth so far so I would just lock him in and deal with whatever happens during the season.
Cogs - I was initially keen at $550k but he seems to be a step below the more elite mids at 590k+. Feels way too expensive to be a list clogger. Could give you a 105-108 avg but also with injury risk. Pass for me
DSmith - seems like skeptics are growing after seeing his ownership %. Lock and load for me at $330k. If he can average 90-95, that’s clearly keeper level. Has done a 90 avg before even as a forward. He will still get enough mid time imo.
J Steven - I was keen before the calf injury. Comment that he will be “eased” into the season as a forward initially has me concerned. Crossed off but still a watch if he shows fitness and gets a mid role.
T Doedee/Roberton - both offer value but I think Roberton offers more. Roberton has gone ~90 before. Doedee is more 80-85. Traditionally def rookies are better scoring so I think it’s not worth getting both of these guys, pick only one. I prefer Roberton - better ceiling and he seems to be training okay too. Roberton could be a quasi keeper as well if he pushes a 90avg. Should get the kick outs.
Houston - worried about role changing throughout the year. Watch for me but currently not that bullish on him.
Dawson - D/F is huge. Also a watch for me. Can the Sydney back line produce two def keepers...? I’d prefer Houston to Dawson at this stage.
I’m currently not a fan of either as a starting selection but if I had to choose it’d be Dunkley. I think Neale has tag risk and potentially a tougher draw to last season (as the Lions finished top 4). He may also lose some inside ball to others like Lyons and CEY.
I made some points about Dunkley above but I see the alternate argument as well. I just prefer to wait and see on a player like him.
I made some points about Dunkley above but I see the alternate argument as well. I just prefer to wait and see on a player like him.
My 2c worth
My 2c worth
Doch. I think he will go around 95 early on. Great player but a long time away, different coach and Newman is in the backline now as well. Hill will go close to 90 hopefully so for maybe 5-10 points I will take the cash and use it elsewhere. If he starts off slow and builds as the season goes Doch could be an upgrade target for coaches not starting with him.
Cogs. Agree with your assessment. Also I think he is a injury risk.
Smith. Not completely sold but if he can go 90 plus then he could be a fair pick. I have him for now but finding an F3 I like is getting tricky (and I can afford)
Steven. The niggle calf has put me off. Would need to be convincing in preseason to have me reconsider. Could also be a query on his role. Some say he is there to replace Kelly but not sure on that. But on his form would be a solid pick. The word BUT is the critical one.
Doedee. Agree with your assessment. Not sure he is doing full training yet. If he was fit then would not surprise me to go 90 plus. Another one that might start slow and could be a target later on.
Roberton. Still in contention for mine. Can go 90 plus. Trouble is you cannot have them all at that lower price range. Be dangerous to have all of Hill, H Young, Roberton.
Houston. Purely a decision based on if he becomes a mid. Problem is if he starts off mid and then goes back to fill a hole eg injury to another defender. I suppose if he starts mid and scores well for 5-10 games and then goes back to defence you trade him out.
Dawson. Bit like Houston. Depends on where they play him. If he is used as a switch between fwd and def then it could get ugly. Also it is a fair point that if he plays back he could cut into Lloyd scoring.
My 2c worth
Doch. I think he will go around 95 early on. Great player but a long time away, different coach and Newman is in the backline now as well. Hill will go close to 90 hopefully so for maybe 5-10 points I will take the cash and use it elsewhere. If he starts off slow and builds as the season goes Doch could be an upgrade target for coaches not starting with him.
Cogs. Agree with your assessment. Also I think he is a injury risk.
Smith. Not completely sold but if he can go 90 plus then he could be a fair pick. I have him for now but finding an F3 I like is getting tricky (and I can afford)
Steven. The niggle calf has put me off. Would need to be convincing in preseason to have me reconsider. Could also be a query on his role. Some say he is there to replace Kelly but not sure on that. But on his form would be a solid pick. The word BUT is the critical one.
Doedee. Agree with your assessment. Not sure he is doing full training yet. If he was fit then would not surprise me to go 90 plus. Another one that might start slow and could be a target later on.
Roberton. Still in contention for mine. Can go 90 plus. Trouble is you cannot have them all at that lower price range. Be dangerous to have all of Hill, H Young, Roberton.
Houston. Purely a decision based on if he becomes a mid. Problem is if he starts off mid and then goes back to fill a hole eg injury to another defender. I suppose if he starts mid and scores well for 5-10 games and then goes back to defence you trade him out.
Dawson. Bit like Houston. Depends on where they play him. If he is used as a switch between fwd and def then it could get ugly. Also it is a fair point that if he plays back he could cut into Lloyd scoring.
This is a great question keen to give my thoughts and see if others agree
Docherty: Lock for me you just have to take the punt at that price and deal with whatever happens during the season, so many others will be doing the same so it won't hurt too much if it goes wrong.
Coniglio: I'm a big fan of him as a player think he is such a versatile mid capable of doing a bit of everything but that's his biggest weakness as an sc player and it's why i'll go no where near starting him. He can go on a hot streak of averaging 110-120 if he has a good draw but he will also have runs of 90-100 where you're going to be able to get him much cheaper than his starting price.
Dev Smith: Lock for me much like Docherty he's way too cheap, has too good of a role, just have to deal with whatever happens if things go wrong, also good that his ownership is so high so it won't hurt too much if he fails.
Steven: Again massive fan of him as a player he's one of the few players in the comp who can carry his side to victory on his own back. Can't see for the life of me why Geelong would recruit a player of his quality to not give him a consistent run in the mids if he's fit enough, but that's the concern he's currently injured and will be why I don't start him because more than anyone he needs a good preseason.
Doedee: At first I hated this pick and couldn't understand why people were interested but the more I thought about it he could be quite decent a few big intercepting games could get him to 350-400k. In the mean time he should put up better scores than your average rookie which is important, his second lowest score in his debut season was 57 which shows his floor isn't bad for the price. Don't have him currently but somewhat interested.
Roberton: Really don't like this pick, his heart issues are a real concern and it would be good news just to see him get back out there we can't expect too much of him as an sc pick imo.
Houston: Really enjoy watching him his disposal is so clean just doesn't miss targets, as an sc pick I can see the appeal but for me personally his skill set is very suited to playing on the half back line and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me why Hinkley used him as a mid so I wouldn't exactly pick him expecting mid time. Having said that I think his skill set is good enough that he can be a very reliable scorer in defence if he does play there. Wait and see for me too many question marks and will be pretty easy to trade in I assume.
Dawson: Great player but really not interested in starting him. His versatility will mean his scoring will be very difficult to predict think you've gotta just try and trade him in when he's playing half back and get some of his best scores.
Docherty: Lock for me you just have to take the punt at that price and deal with whatever happens during the season, so many others will be doing the same so it won't hurt too much if it goes wrong.
Coniglio: I'm a big fan of him as a player think he is such a versatile mid capable of doing a bit of everything but that's his biggest weakness as an sc player and it's why i'll go no where near starting him. He can go on a hot streak of averaging 110-120 if he has a good draw but he will also have runs of 90-100 where you're going to be able to get him much cheaper than his starting price.
Dev Smith: Lock for me much like Docherty he's way too cheap, has too good of a role, just have to deal with whatever happens if things go wrong, also good that his ownership is so high so it won't hurt too much if he fails.
Steven: Again massive fan of him as a player he's one of the few players in the comp who can carry his side to victory on his own back. Can't see for the life of me why Geelong would recruit a player of his quality to not give him a consistent run in the mids if he's fit enough, but that's the concern he's currently injured and will be why I don't start him because more than anyone he needs a good preseason.
Doedee: At first I hated this pick and couldn't understand why people were interested but the more I thought about it he could be quite decent a few big intercepting games could get him to 350-400k. In the mean time he should put up better scores than your average rookie which is important, his second lowest score in his debut season was 57 which shows his floor isn't bad for the price. Don't have him currently but somewhat interested.
Roberton: Really don't like this pick, his heart issues are a real concern and it would be good news just to see him get back out there we can't expect too much of him as an sc pick imo.
Houston: Really enjoy watching him his disposal is so clean just doesn't miss targets, as an sc pick I can see the appeal but for me personally his skill set is very suited to playing on the half back line and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me why Hinkley used him as a mid so I wouldn't exactly pick him expecting mid time. Having said that I think his skill set is good enough that he can be a very reliable scorer in defence if he does play there. Wait and see for me too many question marks and will be pretty easy to trade in I assume.
Dawson: Great player but really not interested in starting him. His versatility will mean his scoring will be very difficult to predict think you've gotta just try and trade him in when he's playing half back and get some of his best scores.
Houston: Really enjoy watching him his disposal is so clean just doesn't miss targets, as an sc pick I can see the appeal but for me personally his skill set is very suited to playing on the half back line and it doesn't make a lot of sense to me why Hinkley used him as a mid so I wouldn't exactly pick him expecting mid time. Having said that I think his skill set is good enough that he can be a very reliable scorer in defence if he does play there. Wait and see for me too many question marks and will be pretty easy to trade in I assume.
The whole reason he is being considered as a selection is because he played in the mids. He is currently training with the mids and Port are saying they will most likely use him there. His form as a pure back would not put him under consideration as I think it is low 80's. His time in the mids at the end of last season saw him at 105.
Hinkley - "He's learnt his craft the right way. He's learnt it as a defender to become a midfielder and there is a good message in that for any young midfielder - if you can learn how to defend first, then come into the midfield then you can be pretty successful."
The whole reason he is being considered as a selection is because he played in the mids. He is currently training with the mids and Port are saying they will most likely use him there. His form as a pure back would not put him under consideration as I think it is low 80's. His time in the mids at the end of last season saw him at 105.
Hinkley - "He's learnt his craft the right way. He's learnt it as a defender to become a midfielder and there is a good message in that for any young midfielder - if you can learn how to defend first, then come into the midfield then you can be pretty successful."
You make a very valid point and I can't argue any of that I'm just personally not exactly sure on it yet preseason should give me a better idea, I just prefer Daniel Laird Sicily and Newman at this stage. Houston's price isn't really good enough value for me to consider him over others with a higher sample size of consistent scoring. Cheers for that Hinkley quote though that's pretty helpful.
