Hi P17, welcome back.
ignoring Grundy's late season prices, his lowest price last season was $655,100 after Round 8, a drop of $53,100 from his opening price. Not what you and I were hoping for! After Round 5 in 2018 his price never got below $600k again, and was mostly $610-$620k, after opening $534,700. Grundy's early draw (Bulldogs, Tigers, Hawks, Lions) would indicate, that while he might drop a little in price, if we are waiting/hoping that he'll get to $600k or lower, it might happen too late! Grundy is a lock to start in my team, because of that early draw. He plays game 2, game 1, game 3 and game 1 of the Round in those first 4 Rounds, and seems the easiest and best VC pick in those weeks. Remember, when picking your team, you should start with your C/VC options first, then your Ruck strategy, then build from there. Grundy fits both criteria.
If I was going to start without one of Gawndy this season, it would be Gawn. Partly because his prep hasn't been ideal, and partly because I'm always tempted by the option of a cheap R2 returning better points than his opening price, and giving you extra dollar making potential. Apart from the Eagles away in Round 1, Gawn's draw isn't horrific, but it's not as friendly as Grundy's. Keep in mind, if Gawn scores an 80 in Round 1, that only sits in his pricing cycle for one price change, so it won't overly affect his buy in price, if you are waiting for him to drop in price. Like Grundy, in 2019 Gawn only dropped by $52,200 from his opening price (after Round 5), ignoring very late in the season prices. Also like Grundy, once his price went north of $600k in 2018, it stayed there, until Round 22 anyway. I'm open to starting both, but my preferred option is Grundy, with a value pick at R2. We just need to see if that value pick presents itself.
Not sure I want to pay $604,100 (Whitfield) or $591,400 (Lloyd) if they are to finish the season outside of the top 3 for their line. Their ownership %'s sit at 60% (W), and 31% (L). If Whit stays up around 60%, I might just risk not starting him. Dusty is 58% and I probably need to start at least one of the two, but Dusty is $61,100 cheaper, so he's nearly a lock in my starting team. What you need to look at, is what you expect them to score, particularly in the first 8-10 Rounds. If you think you can save $80-$100k by getting them later, and the dollars saved in by-passing them improve another selection to a rock solid pick, then by-pass them. Otherwise, you nearly need to just suck it up, and pay the top dollar, if you're pretty sure they are top 3 in their line.
Good luck
ignoring Grundy's late season prices, his lowest price last season was $655,100 after Round 8, a drop of $53,100 from his opening price. Not what you and I were hoping for! After Round 5 in 2018 his price never got below $600k again, and was mostly $610-$620k, after opening $534,700. Grundy's early draw (Bulldogs, Tigers, Hawks, Lions) would indicate, that while he might drop a little in price, if we are waiting/hoping that he'll get to $600k or lower, it might happen too late! Grundy is a lock to start in my team, because of that early draw. He plays game 2, game 1, game 3 and game 1 of the Round in those first 4 Rounds, and seems the easiest and best VC pick in those weeks. Remember, when picking your team, you should start with your C/VC options first, then your Ruck strategy, then build from there. Grundy fits both criteria.
If I was going to start without one of Gawndy this season, it would be Gawn. Partly because his prep hasn't been ideal, and partly because I'm always tempted by the option of a cheap R2 returning better points than his opening price, and giving you extra dollar making potential. Apart from the Eagles away in Round 1, Gawn's draw isn't horrific, but it's not as friendly as Grundy's. Keep in mind, if Gawn scores an 80 in Round 1, that only sits in his pricing cycle for one price change, so it won't overly affect his buy in price, if you are waiting for him to drop in price. Like Grundy, in 2019 Gawn only dropped by $52,200 from his opening price (after Round 5), ignoring very late in the season prices. Also like Grundy, once his price went north of $600k in 2018, it stayed there, until Round 22 anyway. I'm open to starting both, but my preferred option is Grundy, with a value pick at R2. We just need to see if that value pick presents itself.
Not sure I want to pay $604,100 (Whitfield) or $591,400 (Lloyd) if they are to finish the season outside of the top 3 for their line. Their ownership %'s sit at 60% (W), and 31% (L). If Whit stays up around 60%, I might just risk not starting him. Dusty is 58% and I probably need to start at least one of the two, but Dusty is $61,100 cheaper, so he's nearly a lock in my starting team. What you need to look at, is what you expect them to score, particularly in the first 8-10 Rounds. If you think you can save $80-$100k by getting them later, and the dollars saved in by-passing them improve another selection to a rock solid pick, then by-pass them. Otherwise, you nearly need to just suck it up, and pay the top dollar, if you're pretty sure they are top 3 in their line.
Good luck
