Opinion Questions For Rowsus

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus, Hope you’re well.

As a fellow member of the ’Grawndyless’ ruckline for last year, I was wondering what your thoughts on the two are this year and even Lloyd and Whitfield who were all comfortably ahead of the rest of the position for last year.

Is their price worth it despite their possible drop in average in order to get a ‘guaranteed’ top 1-6 player on their respective line.
Hi P17, welcome back.
ignoring Grundy's late season prices, his lowest price last season was $655,100 after Round 8, a drop of $53,100 from his opening price. Not what you and I were hoping for! After Round 5 in 2018 his price never got below $600k again, and was mostly $610-$620k, after opening $534,700. Grundy's early draw (Bulldogs, Tigers, Hawks, Lions) would indicate, that while he might drop a little in price, if we are waiting/hoping that he'll get to $600k or lower, it might happen too late! Grundy is a lock to start in my team, because of that early draw. He plays game 2, game 1, game 3 and game 1 of the Round in those first 4 Rounds, and seems the easiest and best VC pick in those weeks. Remember, when picking your team, you should start with your C/VC options first, then your Ruck strategy, then build from there. Grundy fits both criteria.
If I was going to start without one of Gawndy this season, it would be Gawn. Partly because his prep hasn't been ideal, and partly because I'm always tempted by the option of a cheap R2 returning better points than his opening price, and giving you extra dollar making potential. Apart from the Eagles away in Round 1, Gawn's draw isn't horrific, but it's not as friendly as Grundy's. Keep in mind, if Gawn scores an 80 in Round 1, that only sits in his pricing cycle for one price change, so it won't overly affect his buy in price, if you are waiting for him to drop in price. Like Grundy, in 2019 Gawn only dropped by $52,200 from his opening price (after Round 5), ignoring very late in the season prices. Also like Grundy, once his price went north of $600k in 2018, it stayed there, until Round 22 anyway. I'm open to starting both, but my preferred option is Grundy, with a value pick at R2. We just need to see if that value pick presents itself.
Not sure I want to pay $604,100 (Whitfield) or $591,400 (Lloyd) if they are to finish the season outside of the top 3 for their line. Their ownership %'s sit at 60% (W), and 31% (L). If Whit stays up around 60%, I might just risk not starting him. Dusty is 58% and I probably need to start at least one of the two, but Dusty is $61,100 cheaper, so he's nearly a lock in my starting team. What you need to look at, is what you expect them to score, particularly in the first 8-10 Rounds. If you think you can save $80-$100k by getting them later, and the dollars saved in by-passing them improve another selection to a rock solid pick, then by-pass them. Otherwise, you nearly need to just suck it up, and pay the top dollar, if you're pretty sure they are top 3 in their line.
Good luck :)
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,
How much emphasis do you place on jumps in scoring in the 2H of the year? Neale was one who slowed up in the back half of the year, while a number of other top mids increased their output. Are those who finish the year better more likely to outperform their starting price?
Hi I50,
you really need to look at it from a player by player perspective. What caused the low early season scoring, or conversely, what caused the improvement later in the season. As a general rule, if they are a 2nd, 3rd or 4th season player, and have made that second half of the year improvement, it might pique your interest to see if they can continue to progress. You'd still need to look at the why did they improve question. Was it an injury to a team mate, that provided greater opportunity? etc.
For the most part, I think some people put too much emphasis on late season bursts, when picking their team the following year.
"Oh! He averaged 110 over the last 6 games, when he was only 90 before that! We better jump on, as he is sitting on a discount in Round 1!".
Totally wrong thinking. Nearly every player will have a patch of 4 to 8 games, where their scoring is 10-15 higher than the rest of their season. Logically, this patch can happen anytime, so the fact it happened later in the season doesn't make that player a better pick for the next season. I would generally only use this sort of hint to picking a player, if he was a younger player, and I could see the opportunity for it to continue, and I could generally get a feel as to it was genuine improvement, and not temporary opportunity, that caused the change.
 
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At the end of the 2019 season an SC article was published that showed the optimum team would have won by over 8000 pts and in R23 would have had Nic Newman, Dane Rampe, Adam Treloar, Jarryd Lyons, Michael Walters, Todd Goldstein, James Worpel and Toby Greene all sitting on the bench. It would inconceivable to match that but hey, I'd be happy to win by 1000 pts. What interests me most is the starting line-up had lots of mid-pricers. Only 4 of the starting 30 were over $600K. Doesn’t that suggest that the conventional G & R approach may not be that reliable.
Correct, GnR is an outdated mode, anyone these days with a time machine or 100% hindsight can beat it easily! lol

didn't that team pick the best captain score as well, rather than the most likely.
 

Rowsus

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Great work Rowsus and spot on. Return on investment in team B is higher earlier on, with the key to success post trade analysis is you need the mid pricer (or one of those 3) to be a keeper and not sub optimal at the end of the season (faux premium).

The offset is did Team A also picked the right premium and doesn't need to sideways trade him.

Whilst easier for 400k mid price to improve and become a premium, I often find it is that one that hurts me at the end of the year, unable to upgrade them and haven't made much money from them. A Doe/Robbo/Smith at least should all make money this year assuming they stay on the park.

Until I read a piece of yours yesterday I had considered a no premium def backline, using Roberton, Doedee, Smith up front etc. I then swung the other way as premiums had whittled down to 9-10, now balanced it with just one of the them.
You're right about the risk of having to sideways trade a player.
However, when picking your starting team, I think you have to assume that all your $450-$470k+ players are there for the season. All of them have the risk of needing a sideways trade, but if you are picking a player who is a high risk of needing that (like NicNat), you had better have a strong opinion that that player will give a really good, and quick, return on your investment. While it can be easier to sideways a value pick like Robbo, if the need arises, it still in the end, a trade you didn't want to make.
 

Rowsus

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Gday Rowsus

I find myself keep coming back to Andrew Brayshaw ($382k) in the forwards.

I’m lured in by the fact that he’s a no. 2 draft pick coming into his third year, with an average pattern (60.5, 70.5, ?) that screams breakout. When he got his chance in the mids in the second half of last year his scoring rate increased dramatically, and with Hill & Langdon departing, there’s little chance he doesn’t see even more mid time this year.

On the flip side, it’s just an awful price and all logic says to avoid these kind of picks ... penny for your thoughts?
Gday Zb,
he's certainly one to keep an eye on during the Marsh series. It will possibly be deceptive, as Mundy will likely not be there, but will be back at some stage. Hill and Langdon weren't really Mid beasts, only averaging around 4 clearances and 4.5 Tackles between them. Still it does open the door for Brayshaw a little more. I'm a little worried he might get a negating role now and then. You're right about his price, as he's too expensive to be a Stepping Stone. I'll probably skip him, but I will be very interested in his preseason performances.
 

Rowsus

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Amazing work as always Rowsus.
for those consider 4 prem mids and going extra mid rookie over defender rookie, how does that analysis compare on depth.

If we assume normal is 5 prem mids plus midpricer plus 5 rookies vs going 6 rookies. This would result for defenders going down from 4 rookies to 3 (assumes 4 prem midpricer def goes to 5).

Thus compare 4th def vs 6th rookie.

Think this is the seing for most, rather than fwds.
One of the problems with trying to compare the 6th Mid Rookie with the 4th Def Rookie, is that by the time you get that low on your Rookie choices, you are usually putting some DPP Rookies in there anyway. The 2017 numbers showed we actually had no choice, well before we even got to the 6th Mid Rookie.
 

Rowsus

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Now that you've found your grove for season 2020, thought I would throw out a few of the break out candidates to get your opinion on how you see their prospect for the season ahead. Some are popular whilst some are those that I have my eyes on...:)

I acknowledge that there's a few names below so no stress if you can't get to them all and/or don't currently have an opinion either way.

Christian Salem, D $491,200
Age during 2020 = 25yo
2019: 20/91
2018: 21/82
2017: 16/80
Preseason talk: Continue on that rebounding role, very much in the Houli mould

Dan Houston, D/M $484,800
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 21/89
2018: 22/78
2017: 16/73
Preseason talk: More midfield opportunity

Lachie Weller, D $481,100
Age during 2020 = 24yo
2019: 17/89
2018: 22/74
2017: 22/72
Preseason talk: Settled into role and new club

Jordan Dawson, D/F $467,800
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 20/86
2018: 4/60
2017: 1/32
Preseason talk: Better mark and ball user compared to Lloyd

Tim Kelly, M $561,800
Age during 2020 = 26yo
2019: 22/104
2018: 22/93
2017: NA
Preseason talk: New club equal new opportunity to shine ala Neale of 2019

Tim Taranto, M $555,900
Age during 2020 = 22yo
2019: 22/102
2018: 21/89
2017: 12/67
Preseason talk: Can he overcome the 'too many cooks' phenomenon

James Worpel, M $527,00
Age during 2020 = 22yo
2019: 22/97
2018: 9/73
2017: NA
Preseason talk: Can he sustain his trajectory with Mitchell back in the fold

Jacob Hopper, M $520,200
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 19/96
2018: 19/79
2017: 10/62
Preseason talk: If not Taranto, then maybe Hopper as he's one year older and longer in the system

Jack Steele, M $515,900
Age during 2020 = 24yo
2019: 20/95
2018: 21/94
2017: 20/91
Preseason talk: Is this the year he takes that next big step

Hugh McCluggage, M $510,700
Age during 2020 = 22yo
2019: 21/94
2018: 22/77
2017: 18/54
Preseason talk: Is this the guy we should really be talking about at the Lions

Darcy Parish, F/M $465,400
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 20/86
2018: 15/80
2017: 19/76
Preseason talk: Has he got the capacity to play more midfield or will he remain to be that 'almost' guy

Jade Gresham, F/M $456,400
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 19/84
2018: 22/79
2017: 22/66
Preseason talk: Will he be the main beneficiary which exist in their midfield

Patrick Lipinski, F/M $441,500
Age during 2020 = 22yo
2019: 13/81
2018: 17/59
2017: 1/53
Preseason talk: Had great impact when he secured a spot in the starting 22 but the focus is obviously on their Big 3

Christian Petracca, F $441,300
Age during 2020 = 24yo
2019: 22/81
2018: 21/82
2017: 22/79
Preseason talk: Will this be the year

Jaidyn Stephenson, F $436,200
Age during 2020 = 23yo
2019: 12/80
2018: 22/64
2017: NA
Preseason talk: Was building nicely before his suspension

Connor Rozee, F $422,100
Age during 2020 = 20yo
2019: 22/78
2018: NA
2017: NA
Preseason talk: Not many 20yo & 2nd year player has done it but he's a special talent
Just the 16 players for me to look at!

Salem - Has played 6 seasons, and 90 games. If he's going to break out, this is technically his last chance to do it. I think he found his level, and he's 19-21/86-92 player. Yet to have a 22 game season. If I'm taking a player that I think is closer to an D/M/F6, than a D/M/F3 from the start, I would want to be confident of 21+ games. He's done that once.

Houston - Interests me. Clearly played up the ground more as the season went on (R50's went down, Clearances + I50's went up, TOG went down as Mid players run more, and need more rest.). Is very probably in my team, depending on role in the Marsh.

Weller - Hasn't shown me much/enough, seems a bit of a trap. Greenwood arriving doesn't help.

Dawson - If it all started tomorrow, he'd probably be in my starting team. I like his DPP, and his potential. Having said that, I'm really glad I get the opportunity to see him in the preseason, before having to lock him in.

Kelly T - Will likely find a place in my team. Can play inside/outside whatever. Can only see him improving, especially as he's happily back home. Hard to see him going backwards.

Taranto - A few too many unknowns. Ward back, Kelly hopefully at full powers, Hopper still improving etc. I can see Taranto improving his 102 from last season, but I'm not confident he can crack 110. Won't be a bad pick, I'm just not confident he'll be a strong pick, either.

Worpel - Would only be under strong consideration if he still had his DPP. Can't see him pushing into 107+ this season.

Hopper - I love his 53% CPR (Contested Possession Rate). Will probably improve his disposal a little, but needs to. He and Taranto might cut each others lunch, when it comes to improving their SC, plus GWS have a lot of depth in their Mids. Will be in the low 100's, I think.

Steele - WYSIWYG. I can't see much improvement, or not enough to make him SC Mid Prem.

McLuggage - If CEY doesn't step on his toes, I can see him continue his improvement. 18/54, 22/77, 21/94 so why not 21/105?! Makes him an interesting prospect.

Parish - Would have like to have seen a more consistent game count: 20. 19, 15, 20 worries me, when I'm not confident he takes the step in scoring required to make him a good pick.

Gresham - Too worried he plays too many minutes in that SC poisonous small Fwd role. That will give him enough poor scores to counter his good ones, and make him regrettable.

Lipinski - Was a sneaky good bargain buy late last season, can't see him getting there this season, but also prepared to be proven wrong.

Petracca - Can't see him getting enough Mid time, and won't cut it off the HFF. Missing tank?

Stephenson - Tallest small Fwd in the game. Pass.

Rozee - 7 of his 8 x 85+ scores had him kicking 2+ goals. Will likely improve, but not sure he is a second year 95 point type player.
 

Rowsus

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Hello Rowsus!

Assuming he is 100% fit come round 1, just wondering what your thoughts are on Jack Steven’s prospects this season?

Is he worthy of a spot in our starting teams?
Hello BB,
Steven $361,700 - Will be 30 (just), and playing his 12th season when it kicks off.
He only needs to show me he's fit, and got his mind on the job, in the Marsh, and he's in my team. I'd much rather take a punt on Steven than Smith, as he has YEARS of good SC history.
Let's start at 2012: 21/90, 22/110, 17/85, 22/104, 22/103, 20/91, 22/95, 7/74
His last 8 seasons have produced 2 results you wouldn't be happy with, 2 you'd wonder if you won or lost, and 4 where you clearly won, if he was chosen as a Fwd. With Kelly gone, and clouds over Selwood and Duncan, I think if he looks like his mind is on the job, he's a gift!
 

Rowsus

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Hello Rowsus

What is your opinion on Sean Darcy with 211 retired and Lobb reportedly playing forward?
Hello TooTig,
Darcy $402,800 - has been in the 70's all 3 seasons so far. Even had a game with 39 Hitouts, that only produced a 53!!!
A couple of points to consider.
Never believe clubs reporting on role changes. They're usually exaggerating. Lobb will still play a fair bit of Ruck.
Darcy actually scored better last season, when 211 played! 5/85 with 211, 6/66 without 211.
Not under consideration for my team.
 

Rowsus

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Hey Row,

I'm considering a starting Ruck lineup of:

Grundy, Jacobs, Naismith

The theory I'd like to test is - is $250k too much money to be sitting on the bench?

I think a few questions need to be considered to determine the answer.

1. How much money does Naismith need to make to be a better pick than a basement price rookie? And therefore, what does he need to average?

2. How much value do we attribute to dollars sitting on the bench - assuming that the rest of the starting lineup is okay?

I believe Naismith has the potential to make good money (similar to Witts in his first year at the Sun's). Not sure if R3 if feasible though, and I can't see how I can start without Grundy.

Cheers!
This thread should give you a pretty good indication of what a $250K player needs to do compared to a Rookie priced player.

https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/

I think Naismith's real value would only be obtained if you have an early injury to Grundy, in particular, and/or Jacobs.
Thanks mate great thread. Probably best to give him a miss then. He's a potential trade down option if something goes wrong with Grundy or Jacobs in the first 2 weeks, that's prob a better way to approach it.
Hey TG, welcome back.
$250k is too much for the bench, especially in Round 1.
If you think you need him at R3, as Grundy/Jacobs are high risk of missing a game early, then probably need to question if you start Grundy/Jacobs. If you think Naismith is a good thing to make good money, then you probably should start Grundy/Naismith! I know some good judges are considering just that!

Anyone considering cheapies or Stepping Stones really should read @KLo30 's excellent thread on the topic. Linked below.

https://supercoachscores.com/thread...s-a-fine-line-between-pleasure-and-pain.2799/
 
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Hey Row, love your work!

Fancy taking a look back over the last few years and finding which players had the best 6 week run during any point of the season? Maybe by position too if you can muster it?

Neale's start last year was ridiculous and he pretty much killed the season of anyone who didn't start him. He's the kind of guy we need, not the Dusty and Heeney types who don't really go on a season crushing run IMO.
 
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im pretty sure I know what your opinion of Sam Walsh will be but I will ask anyway lol

could he be this years Oliver?

apart from being different types of mids and different body shapes if anyone his shape and size could do a Oliver it would have to be him surely?

and the fact that he continually finds a way back in every time I take him out has to be a good sign surely lol
 
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Hi warewolves.
Good to see a long time lurker post!
I encourage you to do it more often. :)
Yes a long time since I posted, but for some reason I had the impression this site had shut down. But on my point (trailing post) - I reckon mid-pricers are bad-mouthed a bit unfairly. If that's the way the optimum 2019 team started out, it's strong evidence that the G&R strategy is questionable.
 
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Yes a long time since I posted, but for some reason I had the impression this site had shut down. But on my point (trailing post) - I reckon mid-pricers are bad-mouthed a bit unfairly. If that's the way the optimum 2019 team started out, it's strong evidence that the G&R strategy is questionable.
It's playing the percentages. Mid-Prices have the biggest upside due to their price, but they come off so rarely (relative to premium selections) that you're better off going Guns and Rooks for the most part.

With the benefit of hindsight, your team would be full of mid-pricers, but looking at "perfect" Supercoach teams is a bit of a fallacy....because no one can play the perfect game. Looking at "Winning" teams is a much better strategy, and you'll note very few (usually 1-3) mid-pricers in their starting teams.

Think about it like golf. You don't fire at every pin, or take Driver every hole, if the danger is too big. You play it as smart as possible. Playing the powerball might have the biggest pay-off, but investing in the stockmarket will get you a better return...
 

Rowsus

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At the end of the 2019 season an SC article was published that showed the optimum team would have won by over 8000 pts and in R23 would have had Nic Newman, Dane Rampe, Adam Treloar, Jarryd Lyons, Michael Walters, Todd Goldstein, James Worpel and Toby Greene all sitting on the bench. It would inconceivable to match that but hey, I'd be happy to win by 1000 pts. What interests me most is the starting line-up had lots of mid-pricers. Only 4 of the starting 30 were over $600K. Doesn’t that suggest that the conventional G & R approach may not be that reliable.
Correct, GnR is an outdated mode, anyone these days with a time machine or 100% hindsight can beat it easily! lol

didn't that team pick the best captain score as well, rather than the most likely.
As I'm a maths nerd, let's take a purely mathematical approach to this.
We'll make some assumptions, just for the point of the exercise.
Let's look at 2 Coaches.
Coach A is G'n'R all the way. He also doesn't mind paying top dollar, for what he assumes is quality.
He starts a 12-0-18 (12 Prem, 0 Midpricers, 18 Rookie) team, and has Gawndy. His Prem structure is 3.4.2.3
Coach B is a value hunter. He has Gawndy, but likes taking a risk. He shops for value, and only has a few top dollar picks.
He starts a 11-4-15, and has a Prem/Midprice structure of 4.5.2.4

Coach A picks his Prems from the top 8 priced Defs/Fwds + top 10 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
If Coach A wrote down all the Prem structures possible from those picks, he'd have:
56 x 210 x 1 x 56 = 658,560 different Prem structures to pick from. A really difficult task, but at least they are players with good recent history.

Coach B picks his Prems from the top 12 priced Def/Mids (he's looking for some value!) + top 15 priced Mids. He has Gawndy.
Coach B now needs to find his 4 Midpricers he's going to punt on. He picks 4 players from the 334 players priced from $280k to $450k.
Coach B got his computer to print out all the possible Prem/Midpricer teams he had to choose from. It came to:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 509,267,001 = 37,472,000,000,000,000
Coach B faints, and says "No way!"
I'll pick my Midpricers from these 8 players (what are the chances he's got all the right Midricers in there?!)
Coach B cranks the computer up, and prints out the teams again.
He now has:
495 x 3,003 x 1 x 495 x 70 = 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.

While some will correctly argue, that you can reduce both Coach A and Coach B's choices down, by eleminating injured players, interrupted preseasons etc, it is still very indicative.

Coach A has 658,560 teams to choose from.
Coach B, even if he has the right 8 Midpricers, has 5,150,000,000 teams to choose from.
That's 78,000 times more teams.

Who do you think has the greater possibility of success?
 
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