Position Forward Discussion

[Connoisseur]

D Smith:







Avg between 2014-2018: 89.11 from 91
Avg at Bombers: 90.83 from 29

Avg at Bombers:
Disposals: 21.07
SC avg when disposals equal/exceed 22: 99.14 from 13 (3/13 below 80, 6/13 below 100, 3/13 120+)
SC avg when disposals below 22: 84.06 from 16 (6/16 below 80, 11/16 below 100, 1/16 120+)

Contested possessions: 8.14
SC avg when contested possessions equal/exceed 9: 100.7 from 10 (2/10 below 80, 4/10 below 100, 2/10 120+)
SC avg when contested possessions below 9: 85.63 from 19 (7/19 below 80, 13/19 below `00, 2/19 120+)

Tackles: 7.83
SC avg when tackles equal/exceed 8: 99.64 from 14 (2/14 below 80, 6/14 below 100, 3/14 120+)
SC avg when tackles below 8: 82.6 from 15 (7/15 below 80, 11/15 below 100, 1/15 120+)

 

[BigRuss]

i don’t think I’m as confident in Smith as some others around here but he is just so hard to ignore at that price. Coupled with fact that he lets most sides push up to 14/15 non rookies on field when paired with a Roberton type makes him an almost must start in my view.

If he plays 18/90, do we count that as a win?

 

[Hot Shame]

i don’t think I’m as confident in Smith as some others around here but he is just so hard to ignore at that price. Coupled with fact that he lets most sides push up to 14/15 non rookies on field when paired with a Roberton type makes him an almost must start in my view.

If he plays 18/90, do we count that as a win?

depends on his ave. If he can roll around with an ave of 95ish then its def a win imo. Say an ave of 90 then maybe not so much.

 

[Bomber18]

i don’t think I’m as confident in Smith as some others around here but he is just so hard to ignore at that price. Coupled with fact that he lets most sides push up to 14/15 non rookies on field when paired with a Roberton type makes him an almost must start in my view.

If he plays 18/90, do we count that as a win?

90 avg makes about 100k, there doesn’t seem to be many better fwd rookies so worst case that would make some decent cash?

I wouldn’t count 18/90 as a loss but games missed would definitely be annoying from a keeper perspective

 

[Bermi]

If D Smith's knee operations were successful, then he shouldn't miss games, if.
Anyway, he's fit and under-priced.

Monday, 20 January 2020
After a horror 2019 ruined by injury, Devon Smith is targeting a round one return in 2020.
"Yeah, I'll be good to go from day one," Smith said of his 2020 prospects.
"I've completed all the sessions and I've got my eyes on round one. This is probably the most of a pre-season I've completed since 2016, so I'm actually feeling pretty good."
Staff writers for AFL.com.au

Tuesday, 21 May 2019
Devon Smith is set to have surgery on his troublesome knee and will miss the rest of the 2019 season.
Smith has carried a chronic knee posterior cruciate ligament injury in his knee from his time at Greater Western Sydney, and will have that operated on as well.
After consultation with a specialist, the club confirmed the midfielder would require surgery on his trochlear, underneath the kneecap. Smith had also suffered from PCL deficiency, so the decision was made to address both injuries through surgery.
Callum Twomey for AFL.com.au

 

[BigRuss]

90 avg makes about 100k, there doesn’t seem to be many better fwd rookies so worst case that would make some decent cash?

I wouldn’t count 18/90 as a loss but games missed would definitely be annoying from a keeper perspective

His career average is 17 games and the current state of the Bombers list doesn’t lend a lot of confidence to their fitness regime. If the fallback plan is that he’ll at minimum make money, the question has to be asked if there are better options in that relative price range? Outside of Kennedy, who comes with his own set of issues, I’m just not seeing them.

He’s high on the watch list and has been set in my side since SuperCoach opened but I’m not sure those that don’t start him open themselves up to a great deal of punishment outside of starting structure.

 

[Bomber18]

His career average is 17 games and the current state of the Bombers list doesn’t lend a lot of confidence to their fitness regime. If the fallback plan is that he’ll at minimum make money, the question has to be asked if there are better options in that relative price range? Outside of Kennedy, who comes with his own set of issues, I’m just not seeing them.

He’s high on the watch list and has been set in my side since SuperCoach opened but I’m not sure those that don’t start him open themselves up to a great deal of punishment outside of starting structure.

Is the career average of games a fair indicator? He’s had seasons of 21/91, 20/89 and 22/98 before. Had a poor preseason last season which is not the case this year.

If he goes at 95+ at 335k, I reckon those who leave him out will definitely be punished. Missing out on such a value pick can really leave you behind the eight ball, especially when owned by nearly 50% of the comp

 

[stephen]

i don’t think I’m as confident in Smith as some others around here but he is just so hard to ignore at that price. Coupled with fact that he lets most sides push up to 14/15 non rookies on field when paired with a Roberton type makes him an almost must start in my view.

If he plays 18/90, do we count that as a win?

depending on when he misses the games, and just how low-scoring the forward rookies are, I think that's probably the line. If he played all games to the bye at 90 I would consider it a win. pity he can't be slingshotted (slungshot?) but is relatively easy to cash him in then.

obviously if he misses four games between RD6 and RD10 then he's a big failure.

 

[Bermi]

I think there is too much emphasis on D Smith's possibility of missing games. The operation, and his good preseason, increases his odds of not missing games. I'm playing the odds, but if you are not confident, then there are other low priced players to gamble on.

 

[NT.Thunder]

I think there is too much emphasis on D Smith's possibility of missing games. The operation, and his good preseason, increases his odds of not missing games. I'm playing the odds, but if you are not confident, then there are other low priced players to gamble on.

Not worried about him missing, just his role.

 

[Bermi]

Not worried about him missing, just his role.

D Smith said earlier this month "I think (my role) will be similar to 2018 when I was probably a little bit more mid than forward"
Now that is not concrete, but ESS's midfield is not the strongest in the comp.

(Can I buy a crystal football to predict the future on ebay )

 

[Rowsus]

i don’t think I’m as confident in Smith as some others around here but he is just so hard to ignore at that price. Coupled with fact that he lets most sides push up to 14/15 non rookies on field when paired with a Roberton type makes him an almost must start in my view.

If he plays 18/90, do we count that as a win?

I don't think 18/90 is a win, unless you've developed such an amazing side, that you can have him floating/looping as F6-7/M9.
In the end it will give him a PIT60 84.5. You need better from your F6!
I think he's worth starting, with an eye to dump him at first sign of trouble, or look to make him one of your last upgrades.

 

[NT.Thunder]

D Smith said earlier this month "I think (my role) will be similar to 2018 when I was probably a little bit more mid than forward"
Now that is not concrete, but ESS's midfield is not the strongest in the comp.

(Can I buy a crystal football to predict the future on ebay )

Which is why it has me worried ?

 

[Diabolical]

Always happy to help.

Any particular/key reason you prefer Parish over Petracca?

I like how Parish is building. His last 4 years have gone 72-76-80-85. He improved last year even though he had his lowest time on ground for the 4 years of 73%. His effective disposals dropped off slightly last year too to 71%. Improvement in those two areas and maybe a very slight increase in his contested possession rate (usually 40%) could see him go 95+.
Petracca seems to flatlining at around 80. His time on ground last year was 88% so I can’t see that increasing, particularly if he gets a bit more midfield time. He also has a contested passion rate already of 50%, so it is hard to see that getting larger. The one area he could improve is his disposal efficiency which is less than 70%.
I feel to lean towards Petracca you are thinking he is going to become a midfield beast - something he has shown glimpses that he can do, but I doubt that it will be week after week. Parish just looks to be steadily improving, so I feel that he is the safer pick to get to mid 90s.

 

[Beg2Differ]

Remember that avoiding a perceived injury prone player (like some believe Smith is) does not immunise your side from injury risk. There is no guarantee that your alternative won’t get injured and Smith (or whoever) stays on the park. It would think there would be quite a few times over the years that I have gone x over y on the basis of reliability and x has fallen over whilst y marches on.

 

[THCLT]

Poll has been reset after Marsh 1.

 

[lipsunited]

I like how Parish is building. His last 4 years have gone 72-76-80-85. He improved last year even though he had his lowest time on ground for the 4 years of 73%. His effective disposals dropped off slightly last year too to 71%. Improvement in those two areas and maybe a very slight increase in his contested possession rate (usually 40%) could see him go 95+.
Petracca seems to flatlining at around 80. His time on ground last year was 88% so I can’t see that increasing, particularly if he gets a bit more midfield time. He also has a contested passion rate already of 50%, so it is hard to see that getting larger. The one area he could improve is his disposal efficiency which is less than 70%.
I feel to lean towards Petracca you are thinking he is going to become a midfield beast - something he has shown glimpses that he can do, but I doubt that it will be week after week. Parish just looks to be steadily improving, so I feel that he is the safer pick to get to mid 90s.

I have both

 

[Philzsay]

D Smith said earlier this month "I think (my role) will be similar to 2018 when I was probably a little bit more mid than forward"
Now that is not concrete, but ESS's midfield is not the strongest in the comp.

(Can I buy a crystal football to predict the future on ebay )

Which is why it has me worried ?

For what it worth I think Smith's role will be exactly what it was in 2018, a tad more mid than forward, a role he won the B & F in that year. He is the hardest defensive working mid in the team by a country mile and I expect he will lead the tackle count comfortably.

SC wise I expect he will get similar numbers to 2018. So my thinking is we are paying $336k for a likely 98 average. The litmus test or question then when selecting him is would you happy with that? Answer that and you have a fair idea if you should or should not select him.

 

[stephen]

For what it worth I think Smith's role will be exactly what it was in 2018, a tad more mid than forward, a role he won the B & F in that year. He is the hardest defensive working mid in the team by a country mile and I expect he will lead the tackle count comfortably.

SC wise I expect he will get similar numbers to 2018. So my thinking is we are paying $336k for a likely 98 average. The litmus test or question then when selecting him is would you happy with that? Answer that and you have a fair idea if you should or should not select him.

If you are not happy with that you have led too charmed a life.

 

[NT.Thunder]

For what it worth I think Smith's role will be exactly what it was in 2018, a tad more mid than forward, a role he won the B & F in that year. He is the hardest defensive working mid in the team by a country mile and I expect he will lead the tackle count comfortably.

SC wise I expect he will get similar numbers to 2018. So my thinking is we are paying $336k for a likely 98 average. The litmus test or question then when selecting him is would you happy with that? Answer that and you have a fair idea if you should or should not select him.

Meh, okay I guess I'd be happy with that.

But in all seriousness, especially this year it seems, anything 95+ in the forwards looks gold and like you say, especially if it's sub $350k