Position Forward Discussion

[TommyGobbler]

For what it worth I think Smith's role will be exactly what it was in 2018, a tad more mid than forward, a role he won the B & F in that year. He is the hardest defensive working mid in the team by a country mile and I expect he will lead the tackle count comfortably.

SC wise I expect he will get similar numbers to 2018. So my thinking is we are paying $336k for a likely 98 average. The litmus test or question then when selecting him is would you happy with that? Answer that and you have a fair idea if you should or should not select him.

"Likely 98 average" is wishful thinking for a bloke who has only achieved it once in his 8 year career.

Would be interesting to take a look at Dev's 2018 heat map and CBA numbers too. I thought he played more of an inside role that year.

CBAs from Marsh 1
Shiel 22
Merrett 18
McGrath 18
Parish 17
Smith 9

Small sample size but I'd expect him to play less inside and more on a wing this year.
Also worth noting Merrett and Parish both had low TOG.

IMO it's very unlikely that he averages 98 and even more unlikely that he plays 22 games.

 

[freowho]

"Likely 98 average" is wishful thinking for a bloke who has only achieved it once in his 8 year career.

Would be interesting to take a look at Dev's 2018 heat map and CBA numbers too. I thought he played more of an inside role that year.

CBAs from Marsh 1
Shiel 22
Merrett 18
McGrath 18
Parish 17
Smith 9

Small sample size but I'd expect him to play less inside and more on a wing this year.
Also worth noting Merrett and Parish both had low TOG.

IMO it's very unlikely that he averages 98 and even more unlikely that he plays 22 games.

He's become a 50/50 pick for me after the first preseason game. It does look like the landscape at Essendon has changed but given the lack of on ground forward rookies he might still be handy at $330k. Hard not to see him making at least $100k.

 

[dlanod]

"Likely 98 average" is wishful thinking for a bloke who has only achieved it once in his 8 year career.

That's a pretty deceptive point because there was a team change in there. His years at GWS is basically irrelevant when it comes to figure out whether he can repeat at Essendon, because they were so committed to keeping him as a forward - and part of the reason for his move to Essendon was to play in the middle. So we've got one year of a 98 average, one year of injuries, and a lot of speculation as to how he's going to put it together this year.

 

[Hasnoshoes]

Would it be the end of the world if you ended up with Smith as floating mid/fwd cover for the back half of the year for $330k?

 

[Ricky Bobby]

Would it be the end of the world if you ended up with Smith as floating mid/fwd cover for the back half of the year for $330k?

Depends what he is averaging at the time and whether he has any spike scores which can be looped I suppose

 

[Agent 47]

Would it be the end of the world if you ended up with Smith as floating mid/fwd cover for the back half of the year for $330k?

Bold of you to assume he'll still be playing by then

 

[jobeywatto]

I think people are trying too hard to find reasons not to pick Smith.

He only averaged 1 centre square clearance per game in 2018 when he averaged 98. He doesn't need 20 CBAs a game to score well. He gets involved around the ground.

 

[Bomber18]

For what it worth I think Smith's role will be exactly what it was in 2018, a tad more mid than forward, a role he won the B & F in that year. He is the hardest defensive working mid in the team by a country mile and I expect he will lead the tackle count comfortably.

SC wise I expect he will get similar numbers to 2018. So my thinking is we are paying $336k for a likely 98 average. The litmus test or question then when selecting him is would you happy with that? Answer that and you have a fair idea if you should or should not select him.

Nice one @Philzsay
It seems more convincing coming from you!

I think every Essendon supporter is in agreement that Devon will play predominantly in the mids due to his ability to apply pressure around stoppages (which no other Essendon mid can replicate). Broke the tackles record in 2018 and he himself said he will play similar mid time to 2018..!

 

[jarrad_]

maybe snelling can do smiths job in the forward line?

 

[Blue Dragons]

Nice one @Philzsay
It seems more convincing coming from you!

I think every Essendon supporter is in agreement that Devon will play predominantly in the mids due to his ability to apply pressure around stoppages (which no other Essendon mid can replicate). Broke the tackles record in 2018 and he himself said he will play similar mid time to 2018..!

I am deciding between Smith and Brayshaw. My only concern with Smith is that tackle number from 2018. He had to break the tackles record to get that 98 - do you think if he drops off by a couple per game he will still be able to score enough?

There are the points for the tackle plus any holding the ball free kicks and the possession that comes from that too. His disposal efficiency was only 63.6% so I guess there can still be some improvement there.

Interested to hear your thoughts.

 

[frosty1]

My thinking is that Smith might average about 85, for 330k, which is ok in the context of my team, but that at some point he will spike up from that for a month, at which point the state of my team and of the forward scorers in general, will dictate whether I move him on, or hold in the hope that he averages 95 from then on.

I have a lot of experience in butchering mid priced choices, and will most likely end up going from a Smith at 440k to a Joe Daniher at 330k at some point in a desperate grab for cash. My take on mid pricers is that (if everything goes to plan) they will at some stage spike up towards the high 400s, at which point the temptation is to hold, as they seem to be scoring as well as anyone, and you have other problems, and they may be a keeper. At that point you should (especially in the mids) trade up to a 580k fallen premo, who doesn't appear to be going as well. Reversion to the mean from both happens, and it's the hardest thing to convince yourself that you should ditch player X who has averaged 108 for the last month for player Y who has averaged 98 for the last month (and pay 100k for the privilege) but that's what you have to do with these spiking mid pricers.

Of course we all want to find the break out type, but they are much much rarer.

 

[Bomber18]

I am deciding between Smith and Brayshaw. My only concern with Smith is that tackle number from 2018. He had to break the tackles record to get that 98 - do you think if he drops off by a couple per game he will still be able to score enough?

There are the points for the tackle plus any holding the ball free kicks and the possession that comes from that too. His disposal efficiency was only 63.6% so I guess there can still be some improvement there.

Interested to hear your thoughts.

It is a good point re the tackles record. I did have similar concerns on Titchell when he broke the disposal record for 118SC, but then he went 130 odd SC the following season so was still a good starting (probably the exception though).

If Devon was priced at 500k, it would be a fair enough reason not to start him but at 335k, those sort of risks are already priced into his discounted starting price. 90-95 would be a huge win at his price, I’m expecting 95 as I think he will get similar mid time to 2018.

 

[NT.Thunder]

It is a good point re the tackles record. I did have similar concerns on Titchell when he broke the disposal record for 118SC, but then he went 130 odd SC the following season so was still a good starting (probably the exception though).

If Devon was priced at 500k, it would be a fair enough reason not to start him but at 335k, those sort of risks are already priced into his discounted starting price. 90-95 would be a huge win at his price, I’m expecting 95 as I think he will get similar mid time to 2018.

That's the key take-away I need to keep coming back to. At $335k presents very little risk, if you weren't going to take him it would be largely around injury and missed games. If he's fit I'll start him I think. If he was over $435k I probably wouldn't.

 

[THCLT]

I'm constructing my starting team without Smith (or Robertson in DEF) for the meantime. I see them as my 'break glass' fall back options if I find myself short of fund after locking in my Rookies. Of the two, I prefer Smith over Robertson as he has the potential to be more within reach of that acceptable level for their respective positions.

The ideal scenario is that I don't have to fall back on either of them, however, I wouldn't be too disappointed if I had to start with one or both.

 

[jaca]

Is that because you’re trying to go more GnR or because you feel they could become lost cloggers.

I realise there are other reasons, those are just a few that come to mind.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

Someone mentioned in the midfielders thread about just how many teams are rolling with premo rucks and especially 5 premo mids over Olivers 590k range.

In years gone by you couldn't afford it because each year you need to find some value, so many end up with 500-550k guys at M4 and M5, it also depends where the injured premiums are each year of course.

It's guys like Smith, Lynch, Tmac, Acres, Brayshaw, Wingard, Steven, Greenwood, Petracca ect and Doc down back that are allowing this.

Some of these guys are gonna spud, either thru performance, injury, fitness w/e but pick a few that go alright and it affords you the luxury of starting 5 (maybe even 6!) big dogs in the mids.

So why wouldn't anyone stack the mids with 600k blokes and chase value up forward and down back instead on punting on guys like Prestia or Brad Crouch in the 500-550k bracket in the midfield?

 

[THCLT]

Is that because you’re trying to go more GnR or because you feel they could become lost cloggers.

I realise there are other reasons, those are just a few that come to mind.

I just have other MP's who I have a stronger lean towards in their place for now.

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I just have other MP's who I have a stronger lean towards in their place for now.

Sharing is caring.....

 

[THCLT]

Sharing is caring.....

That's all I seems to do around these traps...

Follow the RMT thread and you'll know that I'm true to my words...post #1,186 to give you a 'friendly' nudge...off you go.

 

[dlanod]

In years gone by you couldn't afford it because each year you need to find some value, so many end up with 500-550k guys at M4 and M5, it also depends where the injured premiums are each year of course.

My most successful years have been picking a couple of fallen elite guys in that price range and backing them to bounce back, to the point where I am for it each time... They're definitely missing this year, which doesn't bode well for me.