Position Defender Discussion

[Eagling]

Im pretty sure he's joking about not trading at all until then. I had a good chuckle when he said "if you've made a mistake you sit and think about what you've done and you let the punishment occur".

In all srsness, if you downgrade a rookie rd 5 youre probably sacrificing a little too much $$ wise. Round 6 or 7 seems about right for genuine one up, one down moves

Oddly enough, it's not as ludicrous as I'm making it.

A lot of issues arise when coaches knee-jerk react to bad starts and sometimes make things worse.

 

[pizza safety]

What are people doing instead of Starting Houston?

 

[Eagling]

Im pretty sure he's joking about not trading at all until then. I had a good chuckle when he said "if you've made a mistake you sit and think about what you've done and you let the punishment occur".

In all srsness, if you downgrade a rookie rd 5 youre probably sacrificing a little too much $$ wise. Round 6 or 7 seems about right for genuine one up, one down moves

Rookies are the exception. Ideally you'd know to start ROB last year etc but I didn't so Round 5 last year I made my first trade and got ROB in.

 

[Spots]

Oh no worries. If those coaches first traded in Round 7 they'd have finished top 0 instead of the paltry achievement of winning the competition.

Cool. I must need a good sleep I think... I took this far too literally. Perhaps should have read all other messages around it for context

 

[Bomber18]

What are people doing instead of Starting Houston?

I’ve gone down to JSteven and am using the cash to get Noble and BZT types in defence

 

[Eagling]

What are people doing instead of Starting Houston?

Simplest way is Houston to Laird funded by Heeney to Petracca.

But I'm also thinking of just grabbing Devon Smith F3 and gambling on him being close to F6 level.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Ok, I'm not singling you out mate but I am curious to know what the peoples views are on this who are regularly at the pointy end... When do they look to make first downgrades to bank some cash for upgrades? We have lots of guys who make top 1000 every year here. Personally I would've thought if your first trade is round 7 then you're probably already behind?

@All is Wells @Dimmawit @Impromptu @NT.Thunder @Damion23

I apologise to anyone else who feels they belong in the above company that I haven't tagged.. my memory is not photographic

I get the gist of what's being said but changes every year. I've had years where I've burnt 6 trades starting round 4 and I've had years like last year where I had no correction trades ad first trades probably around 6 or 7 for whatever reason, you just need to play the cards dealt each week on their merits. The secret is to set yourself up to lessen the risk of some of the **** cards being dealt like poor rookies, injury prone players, poor scorers or picking some like Harry Himmelberg because he looks like a greek god, or Thor, or whichever Hemsworth brother is the good one......not gay or anything.........not saying there's anything wrong with that either.......I digress.
Winning I imagine is breaking the game down into a few seperate areas and doing each of them well, I used to say luck plays no part I've learnt my lesson on this. Make good decisions with your start team, structure, rookies, trades, byes and if you get through that in a good place with a high ranking with half a dozen rounds to go, play your competition.

I'll just add also, I've often been out of trades with 4 or 5 weeks left to play and ranked okay, I've also been hurt by this but sometimes it isn't always making stupid trades that wern't necessary. Last year I ended up with a full squad probably 3 weeks out and ended with 2 trades going into the final round and no problems to address. Just changes every year. If it didn't, I wouldn't come back.

 

[pizza safety]

@Bomber18

I still think this is only worth 1 extra player and it can only be one extra player because you already have the player you are gonna slingshot in if you were to start Houston i.e.

Say you start:

Laird, Sicily and Docherty

about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Daniel


Round 11:

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Doc (4 premiums)


Round 12 (trade in Houston):

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):

Daniel, Laird, Stewart, Sic, Houston (5 premiums)

Round 14:

Stewart, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)

A total of 17 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Say you start:

Sicily, Houston, Docherty

and about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:

Daniel, Sic, Doc (3 premiums)

Round 12 (trade in Laird)

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):

Daniel, Stewart, Laird, Sic, Houston (5 premiums)

Round 14:

Stewart, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)



A total of 16 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


You're double counting Houston because you slingshot him in, but if you were to trade in a player you would have started ahead of Houston in round 12 (i.e. Laird) your team composition is the same at the start of the byes and the only difference is that he missed round 11.

 

[Dimmawit]

My 2c

Perhaps look at it in a different way - "potential zeros"or perhaps even better "potential rookie scores"

In rd 11 if you have no Saints/Port players you are not exposed to any 'extra zeros'. If you started Houston (and any others in that bye round) you've got that many hard-and-fast zeros to cover. Like it or not they are not playing.

Say your choice is Sicily/Houston.

If you start Sicily in rd 11 you have nothing extra to worry about. If you start Houston you have to bring a rookie onto the field (or another player). Forget trading for now. Lets say that player you bring in (we'll call him the rookie) scores exactly the same score as Sicily.

If that happens, well done, you lose nothing. You still have Houston and you lost no points on the player who started Sicily.

Instead if that rookie scores a 40 and Sic scores 100. You are now down 60 pts for having started Houston.....of course Houston might outscore Sic by 60 up to then sure....and that is the variable you gotta make a call on.

Rd 12 comes along.

If you started Sic, you can now bring in Houston. Avoiding a potential zero and you do it knowing Houston plays each of the next byes.

If you started Houston, great you still have him playing through the byes but you aren't going to trade anyone in this round cause everyone you can still has their bye to play. So right now you are faced with playing a rookie again. Yes, the 18 start thing limits the risk but hey who knows what else you are dealing with at that time.

So - the person who doesnt start Houston avoids 2 goes (in theory) of relying on a rookie score vs the person who did (1st in rd 11 covering Houston's bye and 2nd when don't have the option of bringing in Houston to push a rookie out of the 18)

 

[BlueNwhiteHoops]

I’ve gone down to JSteven and am using the cash to get Noble and BZT types in defence

Dunno if I am comfortable paying 190k for a KPD rookie, at least the running hb types like Ash and Young (if he ever plays) will score better but I understand you wanting better perceived JS.

Jack Steven is a weird one, quotes like ''still building fitness'' from a coach is a worrying sign, combine that with the strain he had and i think the warning signs outweigh Danger pumping him up, also now countered by Scott playing down expectations.

I don't think Steven will be a good starting pick, If he remains uninjured i can see him getting better as the season roles on though, let's see if he can blow our minds in Marsh two I guess

 

[pizza safety]

My 2c

Perhaps look at it in a different way - "potential zeros"or perhaps even better "potential rookie scores"

In rd 11 if you have no Saints/Port players you are not exposed to any 'extra zeros'. If you started Houston (and any others in that bye round) you've got that many hard-and-fast zeros to cover. Like it or not they are not playing.

Say your choice is Sicily/Houston.

If you start Sicily in rd 11 you have nothing extra to worry about. If you start Houston you have to bring a rookie onto the field (or another player). Forget trading for now. Lets say that player you bring in (we'll call him the rookie) scores exactly the same score as Sicily.

If that happens, well done, you lose nothing. You still have Houston and you lost no points on the player who started Sicily.

Instead if that rookie scores a 40 and Sic scores 100. You are now down 60 pts for having started Houston.....of course Houston might outscore Sic by 60 up to then sure....and that is the variable you gotta make a call on.

Rd 12 comes along.

If you started Sic, you can now bring in Houston. Avoiding a potential zero and you do it knowing Houston plays each of the next byes.

If you started Houston, great you still have him playing through the byes but you aren't going to trade anyone in this round cause everyone you can still has their bye to play. So right now you are faced with playing a rookie again. Yes, the 18 start thing limits the risk but hey who knows what else you are dealing with at that time.

So - the person who doesnt start Houston avoids 2 goes (in theory) of relying on a rookie score vs the person who did (1st in rd 11 covering Houston's bye and 2nd when don't have the option of bringing in Houston to push a rookie out of the 18)

Like I've shown above, if you start with Houston by trading in a round 14 bye player at round 12 it leaves your team in the same position that it would be in if you started with that round 14 bye player and traded Houston into your team at round 12.

 

[donnybuang]

so in terms of corrective trades early, what's an acceptable number? I can see a few occurring.

I aim for no rookie trades until round 3, no midpricers changes until round 6 and no premium trades at all.

What are people doing instead of Starting Houston?

Got him in he mids for now.

 

[Dimmawit]

Like I've shown above, if you start with Houston by trading in a round 14 bye player at round 12 it leaves your team in the same position that it would be in if you started with that round 14 bye player and traded Houston into your team at round 12.

Maybe you have the same number of premiums in your side at any point in time but I'm trying to highlight that when they come is determines your exposure to the rookie score. If you trade in that rd 14 guys in rd 12 you solve a problem then but you have to cover them at the upcoming bye. If you assume you are going so well that your plans allow the same number of premos in the 18 come rd 14 then sure there is no difference.

But the inescapable fact remains you face more potential rookie scores by starting Houston - not so many that I'm saying you shouldn't....if there was a deadset simple swap for a player in his price range that we all agreed was a great starter I reckon this conversation ends sooner. Houston looks like a good pick (even accounting for the above) so back him in i reckon

 

[Eagling]

Maybe you have the same number of premiums in your side at any point in time but I'm trying to highlight that when they come is determines your exposure to the rookie score. If you trade in that rd 14 guys in rd 12 you solve a problem then but you have to cover them at the upcoming bye. If you assume you are going so well that your plans allow the same number of premos in the 18 come rd 14 then sure there is no difference.

But the inescapable fact remains you face more potential rookie scores by starting Houston - not so many that I'm saying you shouldn't....if there was a deadset simple swap for a player in his price range that we all agreed was a great starter I reckon this conversation ends sooner. Houston looks like a good pick (even accounting for the above) so back him in i reckon

Completely restructuring your side would seem to be a better option than a straight swap.

 

[Bomber18]

@Bomber18

I still think this is only worth 1 extra player and it can only be one extra player because you already have the player you are gonna slingshot in if you were to start Houston i.e.

Say you start:

Laird, Sicily and Docherty

about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Daniel


Round 11:

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Doc (4 premiums)


Round 12 (trade in Houston):

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):

Daniel, Laird, Stewart, Sic, Houston (5 premiums)

Round 14:

Stewart, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)

A total of 17 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


Say you start:

Sicily, Houston, Docherty

and about 8-9 rounds in you trade in Caleb Daniel

Round 11:

Daniel, Sic, Doc (3 premiums)

Round 12 (trade in Laird)

Daniel, Laird, Sic, Houston, Doc (5 premiums)

Round 13 (trade in Stewart):

Daniel, Stewart, Laird, Sic, Houston (5 premiums)

Round 14:

Stewart, Houston, Doc (3 premiums)



A total of 16 premiums playing over these 4 weeks.


You're double counting Houston because you slingshot him in, but if you were to trade in a player you would have started ahead of Houston in round 12 (i.e. Laird) your team composition is the same at the start of the byes and the only difference is that he missed round 11.

Like I've shown above, if you start with Houston by trading in a round 14 bye player at round 12 it leaves your team in the same position that it would be in if you started with that round 14 bye player and traded Houston into your team at round 12.

Interesting example again. I think Team B is in the same position premium numbers wise by taking a player with an upcoming bye in R12, but Team B wouldn’t have “slingshot” a player so would have maybe less overall players playing through the byes. Perhaps the comparison also doesn’t work well when including R14 bye player who cannot be “slingshot” anyway, I think I used Ryan previously who was a R13 player.

The point I wanted to highlight in the “1-2 extra premium score” example was to respond to the point where both Team A and B intended to “slingshot” a player however Team B would need to wait longer before they could “slingshot” that player.

Perhaps what your example shows that in such scenario maybe the “slingshot” by Team B isn’t as valuable and Team B should upgrade in R12 to get an extra premium over rookie score sooner. Could apply generally to what the best strategy in the first multi bye round is.

 

[ScoringFreely]

Couldn't you also start Houston and trade in another port/stk player post r11? Gresham, Rozee etc Depends how bullish you are on Houston and another port/stk option presenting.

 

[Spots]

Couldn't you also start Houston and trade in another port/stk player post r11? Gresham, Rozee etc Depends how bullish you are on Houston and another port/stk option presenting.

Yes I think this is where the discussion has been a bit stuck... the people that think Houston is the only keeper they would want to trade in after Round 11 out of Saints & Port are in the camp not wanting to start with Houston.... but if there were other trade in targets then the discussion is moot.

Either way I think most are saying that the value presented based on Houstons starting price probably makes it a 50/50 decision anyway

 

[Zagbag]

I think the big one is Marshall. He's already done with Grundy and NicNat by the time his bye rolls around. Has Gawn in Rd 17 but apart from that has a great ruck draw in the second half...

 

[Spots]

I think the big one is Marshall. He's already done with Grundy and NicNat by the time his bye rolls around. Has Gawn in Rd 17 but apart from that has a great ruck draw in the second half...

Yeah it really does make the R2 midpricer much more attractive... and from what I saw last year I don't expect Ryder at his stage of footy to be having a huge impact on him

 

[pizza safety]

Interesting example again. I think Team B is in the same position premium numbers wise by taking a player with an upcoming bye in R12, but Team B wouldn’t have “slingshot” a player so would have maybe less overall players playing through the byes. Perhaps the comparison also doesn’t work well when including R14 bye player who cannot be “slingshot” anyway, I think I used Ryan previously who was a R13 player.

The point I wanted to highlight in the “1-2 extra premium score” example was to respond to the point where both Team A and B intended to “slingshot” a player however Team B would need to wait longer before they could “slingshot” that player.

Perhaps what your example shows that in such scenario maybe the “slingshot” by Team B isn’t as valuable and Team B should upgrade in R12 to get an extra premium over rookie score sooner. Could apply generally to what the best strategy in the first multi bye round is.

Team B has less players in round 11 but otherwise the same number across the rest of the byes. They already have the “slingshot player” in Houston (you’re not slingshotting him in but you have him already) and can bring in any other player who they would have started instead of Houston in round 12 (except round 12 bye players) - so that the team is the same on paper at the start of the byes.