Discussion Rookie Discussion

[Herbie66]

Forward seems to have anumber of reasonable options at the cheap end of the scale. I wonder if we'll have to make sacrifices in our "premium" or "breakouts" here to get the stronger rookies.

One option is of course (I think @Herbie66 looked at this) to start one of likes of smith/steven/brayshaw in midfield and swing them forward in due course.

Sure did

Essentially it is about following the rookies at the start to as where they are named.

eg forward line of Lynch + 7 , start your DPP forwards in the mid line then make changes as necessary

some of these cheaper forward rookies might even have better JS than the likes of Serong , Green etc

just an idea I had

 

[Herbie66]

Plenty of likely round 1 starters - the trick is working out who will stick with the AFL team long enough to make enough cash before the first round of downgrades.

I guess that's the next thing going through the injury/suspension lists of each team and seeing who is out and when they are due back or who is going to start in VFL etc

 

[Herbie66]

I think the Marsh cup averages will be a good indicator for Davis, Sturt and King's scoring levels. Probably your 40-50 avg rookies that peak at 220k. King has shown some potential for a spike game so I prefer him to Davis/Sturt.

Taylor showed a good ceiling, but realistically I think probably 55-60. Rankine is hyped so purely based on that I think at least 60.

Serong is really role and TOG dependent. Could see him averaging 65 easily if he gets an inside mid role, but if stuck forward could be closer to a 50 avg. Maybe Serong is the one I try get in the hope that he does string a few together and plays inside mid.

Jackson is the big unknown for me. They're saying things like playing him in the midfield as a midfielder not ruck. Wondering whether to take him if named R1 as it'd be a good indicator of JS and recognition of his potential.

Imagine if Jackson did play in the midfield and took Petracca's time ?

 

[Herbie66]

I think the Marsh cup averages will be a good indicator for Davis, Sturt and King's scoring levels. Probably your 40-50 avg rookies that peak at 220k. King has shown some potential for a spike game so I prefer him to Davis/Sturt.

Taylor showed a good ceiling, but realistically I think probably 55-60. Rankine is hyped so purely based on that I think at least 60.

Serong is really role and TOG dependent. Could see him averaging 65 easily if he gets an inside mid role, but if stuck forward could be closer to a 50 avg. Maybe Serong is the one I try get in the hope that he does string a few together and plays inside mid.

Jackson is the big unknown for me. They're saying things like playing him in the midfield as a midfielder not ruck. Wondering whether to take him if named R1 as it'd be a good indicator of JS and recognition of his potential.

Thanks for such a detailed response , very much appreciated.

JS for the likes of Davis , King , Rankine , Sturt types might be more important at the early-mid stage of the season and just lower expectations on how much $ they can make.

Maybe use someone else in a position to make "extra" money.

Serong is a interesting one , on first glance Freo seems to have a lot of players due to return though so I will need to do some more research

 

[Grundogging]

I have been a bit too optimistic taking probably the best winger in the AFL as an example haha.

But Lachie Whitfield is also one of the best in the comp atm and he went 73. Andy McGrath (although played defence) went at 71 and he had terrible scoring in the preseason as well.

Angus Brayshaw went at 65 in his first season (but copped a few sub vests as well).

Bascially, I think 65+ is possible for Anderson considering his pedigree as a top 2 pick, but yes of course, preseason scoring isn't that promising.

Depends on his confidence level with his run and carry and which way he leans with his kicking (ie. short or long) I guess.

The zero points for a kick < 40m to a contest thing might be a bit of an issue if he can't find that confidence early against bigger-bodied and harder running opponents who aren't just going to let him wander up and down the wing as he pleases.

 

[Spots]

Waiting on price drops for many of the fully priced premiums, such as Gawn, Macrae, Lloyd and Whitfield; and choosing to start the lower end premiums such as Oliver, Houston and Steven may be even more important this year to fit in all these high priced rookies.
I know it sounds obvious but taking Macrae and Whitfield down to Oliver and Houston has allowed me to maintain 14 premiums, while having the high priced rookies that appear to have strong job security

Makes sense to me.. you need a few top priced uber premium players as your C/VC option but other premiums should be selected on a value basis.. get those other guys in when its upgrade time!

 

[NT.Thunder]

Waiting on price drops for many of the fully priced premiums, such as Gawn, Macrae, Lloyd and Whitfield; and choosing to start the lower end premiums such as Oliver, Houston and Steven may be even more important this year to fit in all these high priced rookies.
I know it sounds obvious but taking Macrae and Whitfield down to Oliver and Houston has allowed me to maintain 14 premiums, while having the high priced rookies that appear to have strong job security

Makes sense to me.. you need a few top priced uber premium players as your C/VC option but other premiums should be selected on a value basis.. get those other guys in when its upgrade time!

Yep this is always great in theory, I seem to find it much harder in reality. Some of these guys don't move much in price and for those hoping for a slow start sometimes the base price for these guys comes a little too early and the coin needed isn't there in the rookies yet, especially this year where there doesn't appear to be enough fast cash generation options to let go early, will probably need Rowell right up to the bye period.

That said, might be very little other options available. I find the structures I'm prefering atm do include some of the lower premiums like Cogs, Zerrrett and Oliver.

I would certainly make sure you have some really good captain/VC choices though that align with the early season draw period.

 

[Muffin Head]

Every year everyone starts with one donut. At this stage I'm happy to start with 2 donuts. Not ideal but if you are happy with your structure (which I am) why not. Worse case scenario you might have to burn one or two trades early for corrections.

 

[NT.Thunder]

Every year everyone starts with one donut. At this stage I'm happy to start with 2 donuts. Not ideal but if you are happy with your structure (which I am) why not. Worse case scenario you might have to burn one or two trades early for corrections.

Is that because you want to take someone like a Gould or Hibberd type that is likely to play early or you're not a fan of cash generation

But seriously, one I get, 2 is something hardcore Impromptu style!

 

[TigerTime]

Yep this is always great in theory, I seem to find it much harder in reality. Some of these guys don't move much in price and for those hoping for a slow start sometimes the base price for these guys comes a little too early and the coin needed isn't there in the rookies yet, especially this year where there doesn't appear to be enough fast cash generation options to let go early, will probably need Rowell right up to the bye period.

That said, might be very little other options available. I find the structures I'm prefering atm do include some of the lower premiums like Cogs, Zerrrett and Oliver.

I would certainly make sure you have some really good captain/VC choices though that align with the early season draw period.

It's looking like a tough year and we will really need to get those lower end premiums correct.

 

[Herbie66]

seems to be a "fear" of actually picking rookies that are going to be named , if it's not possible having a lovely mid bench of 3 x $ 123,000.00 or less players then look for alternative options around it or plan your draft teams with the likes of Serong , Green , Starcevich etc on the bench.

You might actually surprise yourselves that you still have 11-13 premiums and your side still looks ok.

My side has 8 super premiums , 4 underpriced 90+ players and a Roberton + $ 335 k leftover if I need a premium D1.

 

[stephen]

I reckon Hately is more likely to make 100k+ than some rookies being talked about. Would rather him at M6 and rotate Green and Pickett of the bench than have Anderson on the bench

 

[Bomber18]

I reckon Hately is more likely to make 100k+ than some rookies being talked about. Would rather him at M6 and rotate Green and Pickett of the bench than have Anderson on the bench

Interesting strategy but man that Hately burn from last season, still feeling it.... Imagine if it was him who got dropped for Ward.....

Anderson appeals as it seems he has solid JS more than anything

 

[Connoisseur]

Can our twitter guru @Professor @Connoisseur tweet out a petition to SC to change Jackson to a R/F as I wouldn't mind a 'cheapish' DDP forward...

Sorry but I don’t have and do not want a twitter account. I’m sure Professor will happily oblige to the request.

 

[NT.Thunder]

seems to be a "fear" of actually picking rookies that are going to be named , if it's not possible having a lovely mid bench of 3 x $ 123,000.00 or less players then look for alternative options around it or plan your draft teams with the likes of Serong , Green , Starcevich etc on the bench.

You might actually surprise yourselves that you still have 11-13 premiums and your side still looks ok.

My side has 8 super premiums , 4 underpriced 90+ players and a Roberton + $ 335 k leftover if I need a premium D1.

I don't think there's any fear of picking rookies or the rookies not being there, it's more the quality of rookies, well, not even so much the quality of rookies but more the scoring potential of rookies, especially at rookie prices. This year the majority of rookies are in that higher bracket - $130k and up, with several $180k and up. This is what burns through your cash and it's harder for them to make $150k then a good $106k bargain base player.

I'd usually be stacking a team with $123k and less players, maybe take a Rowel/Walsh type or two. Players like Taylor/Davis etc might give you a 60+ one week but my gut says they're more your 40-60 type.

 

[stephen]

Interesting strategy but man that Hately burn from last season, still feeling it.... Imagine if it was him who got dropped for Ward.....

Anderson appeals as it seems he has solid JS more than anything

If you have Green as well then it's not a terrible way to o***et risk. Trade out the one who gets dropped and you've still got the other one on field so your structure survives.

Not a move I'd consider any other year but I'm keeping my mind open to it.

 

[Bomber18]

If you have Green as well then it's not a terrible way to o***et risk. Trade out the one who gets dropped and you've still got the other one on field so your structure survives.

Not a move I'd consider any other year but I'm keeping my mind open to it.

Hadn’t thought of it myself but I could do it as well if needed. Would you consider Daicos in the same role? He’s 260k and scored 80s in both preseason games?

 

[TigerTime]

Yep this is always great in theory, I seem to find it much harder in reality. Some of these guys don't move much in price and for those hoping for a slow start sometimes the base price for these guys comes a little too early and the coin needed isn't there in the rookies yet, especially this year where there doesn't appear to be enough fast cash generation options to let go early, will probably need Rowell right up to the bye period.

That said, might be very little other options available. I find the structures I'm prefering atm do include some of the lower premiums like Cogs, Zerrrett and Oliver.

I would certainly make sure you have some really good captain/VC choices though that align with the early season draw period.

Having Heeney instead of those lower premium mids in the midfield saves some handy cash and you can be confident in his ability to be a top 8 fwd when u eventually swing him there.
At the moment I'm liking Whitfield and Heeney in the mids next to Macrae, Neale and Cripps. Still allows me to have Dusty, Petracca, Steven and Smith up forward; 4 lower end premium defenders; and the higher priced rookies I need

 

[NT.Thunder]

I reckon Hately is more likely to make 100k+ than some rookies being talked about. Would rather him at M6 and rotate Green and Pickett of the bench than have Anderson on the bench

I think this could be a really good strategy this year, it's uber risky in terms of making you sure you get it right but grabbing players that contribute a higher points score on field each week that won't be a keeper but still make $150k for Hately that would mean an average of 93 to get to the byes.

On the flip, someone like Serong to make $150k he would need to average roughly 70 to the bye.

So, can you use $125k to make an additional ~ 25ppg elsewhere. Some cases - rookie defender to Roberton maybe, high end rookie like Noah Anderson to Devon Smith?

 

[NT.Thunder]

Having Heeney instead of those lower premium mids in the midfield saves some handy cash and you can be confident in his ability to be a top 8 fwd when u eventually swing him there.
At the moment I'm liking Whitfield and Heeney in the mids next to Macrae, Neale and Cripps. Still allows me to have Dusty, Petracca, Steven and Smith up forward; 4 lower end premium defenders; and the higher priced rookies I need

I'm watching Heeney, not keen to go in with him from the start. I'm really wary about where the Swans are this year.