Position Forward Discussion

[Bomber18]

Still doing a lot of flip-flopping between Brayshaw and Petracca up forward. I have Petracca right now with a 102k R3 (can't afford the more expensive options).

If a playing R3 is selected on Thursday night I think i'll downgrade Trac to Brayshaw for the funds.

Anyone have any solid thoughts on Petracca vs Brayshaw this season? Both players topping their teams CBA's over both Marsh games looks promising to me.

Brayshaw's TOG numbers might be some concern though. Trac topped the CBAs and also averaged around 87% TOG.

Brayshaw had 60% and 82% for an average of around 70%.The lack of tank to push 80% TOG consistently might limit his potential to the low 90s bracket. Trac could hit 105 with TOG closer to 87-90%. Trac the much safer pick in my books, floor of maybe 90 over 22 games with 85-90% TOG and 65%+ midfield time.

 

[Merv Neagle]

Fellas need some advice , help.
In a supercoach keepers league. 15 players in squad. 11 starters. The league has rookie keepers rule if you select a players from this years drafts x 3 you can keep them forever.
So the question is this which players from this years draft will be the best supercoach scorers. Ideally forwards and defenders are the priority.

 

[Diabolical]

I just read an exchange between @inwhiterooms and @Bomber18 with interest in the XvY thread - both coaches who have a much better record than I!

Their predictions for Petracca are for 95 and 100 respectively but I just can’t see it.

His career games/averages are:
2016 - 17/72.7 (2 games above 95 of which both games were above 100)
2017 - 22/78.8 (5>95, 3>100)
2018 - 21/81.5 (7>95, 5>100)
2019 - 22/81.3 (5>95, 3>100)

To me, he needs to make a massive jump to just get to that 95 level. I understand that he will get more inside mid time, but will he do it week after week? It is his lower range scores that are concerning me.

If I was to break his seasons into thirds (highest third scores, middle, and lowest third scores) his averages are:
2016: 92.3, 70.0, 55.3
2017: 99.9, 78.4, 59.1
2018: 106.0, 96.7, 56.7
2019: 98.3, 82.5, 62.9

The way I see it, if he can match ALL of his best thirds (top two from 2018 and bottom third from last year) that will get him to an 88.5 average this year, so he will need a great improvement across the board, not just with his ceiling. It is those lowest third of scores that are concerning me, but I am happy to be convinced otherwise.

 

[randomcliche]

Fellas need some advice , help.
In a supercoach keepers league. 15 players in squad. 11 starters. The league has rookie keepers rule if you select a players from this years drafts x 3 you can keep them forever.
So the question is this which players from this years draft will be the best supercoach scorers. Ideally forwards and defenders are the priority.

Pretty sure there is a thread for draft leagues, Green is my pick #1 pick, prolly Budarick from fwd...but relocate for more considered opinions...

 

[randomcliche]

I just read an exchange between @inwhiterooms and @Bomber18 with interest in the XvY thread - both coaches who have a much better record than I!

Their predictions for Petracca are for 95 and 100 respectively but I just can’t see it.

His career games/averages are:
2016 - 17/81.3 (2 games above 95 of which both games were above 100)
2017 - 22/81.5 (5>95, 3>100)
2018 - 21/78.8 (7>95, 5>100)
2019 - 22/72.7 (5>95, 3>100)

To me, he needs to make a massive jump to just get to that 95 level. I understand that he will get more inside mid time, but will he do it week after week? It is his lower range scores that are concerning me.

If I was to break his seasons into thirds (highest third scores, middle, and lowest third scores) his averages are:
2016: 92.3, 70.0, 55.3
2017: 99.9, 78.4, 59.1
2018: 106.0, 96.7, 56.7
2019: 98.3, 82.5, 62.9

The way I see it, if he can match ALL of his best thirds (top two from 2018 and bottom third from last year) that will get him to an 88.5 average this year, so he will need a great improvement across the board, not just with his ceiling. It is those lowest third of scores that are concerning me, but I am happy to be convinced otherwise.

This one isn't about the #s... it's a new fitness coach, a fitter player in a role he couldn't run out a game doing the past. Looking at past numbers will only confirm that he couldn't run out a match in the mids and score well enough consistently enough. His junior wraps haven't fallen off completely...in fact some are being stuck back on as we speak... He was in my side and out my side...I'd love to have him, A Brayshaw, Parish, Macpherson and Ceglar but Whitfield, Dusty, TJL I have above them all and I like the cash generation and upside on Steven and Smith more... given I don't have the cash to upgrade either to the first 4.... Brayshaw/Machperson I probably like the least from that list... if you put the SC gun to my head.

 

[Kidult]

This one isn't about the #s... it's a new fitness coach, a fitter player in a role he couldn't run out a game doing the past. Looking at past numbers will only confirm that he couldn't run out a match in the mids and score well enough consistently enough. His junior wraps haven't fallen off completely...in fact some are being stuck back on as we speak... He was in my side and out my side...I'd love to have him, A Brayshaw, Parish, Macpherson and Ceglar but Whitfield, Dusty, TJL I have above them all and I like the cash generation and upside on Steven and Smith more... given I don't have the cash to upgrade either to the first 4.... Brayshaw/Machperson I probably like the least from that list... if you put the SC gun to my head.

Also with the Demons fwd line he isn't needed as much up there with the injury free players back

 

[Bomber18]

I just read an exchange between @inwhiterooms and @Bomber18 with interest in the XvY thread - both coaches who have a much better record than I!

Their predictions for Petracca are for 95 and 100 respectively but I just can’t see it.

His career games/averages are:
2016 - 17/81.3 (2 games above 95 of which both games were above 100)
2017 - 22/81.5 (5>95, 3>100)
2018 - 21/78.8 (7>95, 5>100)
2019 - 22/72.7 (5>95, 3>100)

To me, he needs to make a massive jump to just get to that 95 level. I understand that he will get more inside mid time, but will he do it week after week? It is his lower range scores that are concerning me.

If I was to break his seasons into thirds (highest third scores, middle, and lowest third scores) his averages are:
2016: 92.3, 70.0, 55.3
2017: 99.9, 78.4, 59.1
2018: 106.0, 96.7, 56.7
2019: 98.3, 82.5, 62.9

The way I see it, if he can match ALL of his best thirds (top two from 2018 and bottom third from last year) that will get him to an 88.5 average this year, so he will need a great improvement across the board, not just with his ceiling. It is those lowest third of scores that are concerning me, but I am happy to be convinced otherwise.

This one isn't about the #s... it's a new fitness coach, a fitter player in a role he couldn't run out a game doing the past. Looking at past numbers will only confirm that he couldn't run out a match in the mids and score well enough consistently enough. His junior wraps haven't fallen off completely...in fact some are being stuck back on as we speak... He was in my side and out my side...I'd love to have him, A Brayshaw, Parish, Macpherson and Ceglar but Whitfield, Dusty, TJL I have above them all and I like the cash generation and upside on Steven and Smith more... given I don't have the cash to upgrade either to the first 4.... Brayshaw/Machperson I probably like the least from that list... if you put the SC gun to my head.

Yep, @randomcliche has nailed it. It's more about the numbers of past breakout picks at similar stages in their career after making a move to the midfield rather than Trac's historical numbers themselves.

Also sorry, but I think you have his career averages the wrong way around as well. Fanfooty has Trac going 22/81.2 in 2019. He had an interrupted preseason in 2019 and finished the second half of the year better than the start (pre-bye 78, post-bye 87). Prospectus 2020 states that Trac spent his lowest game time in the midfield in 2019 since his debut season, but as a general forward, ranked elite for disposals and CPs, "No.1 in the AFL for forward 50 groundball gets alongside Gary Ablett".

My conservative prediction for Trac is 90-95 over 22 games but I can definitely see him hitting that 100 mark or close to this season after improving his fitness enough to play closer to 70%+ midfield time and lose his fwd status.

 

[Diabolical]

Yep, @randomcliche has nailed it. It's more about the numbers of past breakout picks at similar stages in their career after making a move to the midfield rather than Trac's historical numbers themselves.

Also sorry, but I think you have his career averages the wrong way around as well. Fanfooty has Trac going 22/81.2 in 2019. He had an interrupted preseason in 2019 and finished the second half of the year better than the start (pre-bye 78, post-bye 87). Prospectus 2020 states that Trac spent his lowest game time in the midfield in 2019 since his debut season, but as a general forward, ranked elite for disposals and CPs, "No.1 in the AFL for forward 50 groundball gets alongside Gary Ablett".

My conservative prediction for Trac is 90-95 over 22 games but I can definitely see him hitting that 100 mark or close to this season after improving his fitness enough to play closer to 70%+ midfield time and lose his fwd status.

Whoops .. my bad .. corrected! Looks like I had everything else the right way around!

 

[Meltingpot38]

https://www.afl.com.au/news/386258/...h-star-recruit-but-two-other-big-names-are-in

Uh oh....Jack Steven needs to be replaced...

 

[Dustman]

Yep, @randomcliche has nailed it. It's more about the numbers of past breakout picks at similar stages in their career after making a move to the midfield rather than Trac's historical numbers themselves.

Also sorry, but I think you have his career averages the wrong way around as well. Fanfooty has Trac going 22/81.2 in 2019. He had an interrupted preseason in 2019 and finished the second half of the year better than the start (pre-bye 78, post-bye 87). Prospectus 2020 states that Trac spent his lowest game time in the midfield in 2019 since his debut season, but as a general forward, ranked elite for disposals and CPs, "No.1 in the AFL for forward 50 groundball gets alongside Gary Ablett".

My conservative prediction for Trac is 90-95 over 22 games but I can definitely see him hitting that 100 mark or close to this season after improving his fitness enough to play closer to 70%+ midfield time and lose his fwd status.

Whist I agree and understand all the points you made are good indicators for a breakout,as we know,it is not always the case. Last year Chad Wingard spent more time in the midfield than attack,for the first time in his career, and his average dropped from 88 to 75.
Not a great example,I know,because his season was interrupted,but just shows it’s a bit of a guessing game.

 

[BigRuss]

Gary Ablett anyone?

 

[Juzzo]

Gary Ablett anyone?

Maybe, but not a good early draw I think.

 

[PC]

Gary Ablett anyone?

Renaissance.

 

[JMAC]

Anyone taking a gamble on Ben Crocker at 150k?

 

[BigRuss]

Renaissance.

Would love to give the little master the swan song he deserves.

I’m questioning the Whitfield pick, shorter quarters really limits him of the opportunity to use his running power late.

The shortened quarters is such a ridiculously huge change to the game that I can’t quite wrap my head around it yet. I foresee a good amount of changes to my side after tomorrow nights test run.

 

[AngryAnt]

Would love to give the little master the swan song he deserves.

I’m questioning the Whitfield pick, shorter quarters really limits him of the opportunity to use his running power late.

The shortened quarters is such a ridiculously huge change to the game that I can’t quite wrap my head around it yet. I foresee a good amount of changes to my side after tomorrow nights test run.

Heeney could be a beneficiary of the shorter quarters as he scores plenty of points in bursts, impact player.

 

[Rumbler]

Who's everyone replacing J.Steven with? Or are you just going to pick him and hope he plays from round 2 onwards....

 

[lavenderbandit]

Who's everyone replacing J.Steven with? Or are you just going to pick him and hope he plays from round 2 onwards....

Turns 30 in 10 days. 7 games last year, already out round 1 to risky to hold for mine.

He was in my side, but i couldn't tell you who I'm replacing him with as I'm totally messing my side up now with the last minute panic!

 

[Connoisseur]

Who's everyone replacing J.Steven with? Or are you just going to pick him and hope he plays from round 2 onwards....

Turns 30 in 10 days. 7 games last year, already out round 1 to risky to hold for mine.

He was in my side, but i couldn't tell you who I'm replacing him with as I'm totally messing my side up now with the last minute panic!

JJK?

 

[Professor]

Anyone taking a gamble on Ben Crocker at 150k?

Had him most preseason, traded out atm due to JS, if named I might change my mind. Too many similar types trying to get a game in Adelaide's forward line. Jones, Murphy, Poholke, McAdam, Crocker, Gallucci, Stengle and Davis.