Opinion Questions For Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,


Does Hewett returning worry you in terms of Florent's role? To be honest don't really watch the Swans alot but would think he'd play alot more outside when Hewett returns? Also would love your thoughts on bringing in Long/Fort/Bewley. I rank them in that order, and genuinely believe the first 2 could average 95+ and be keepers. I'm not as concerns for Fort's job security as others seem to be.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus,


Does Hewett returning worry you in terms of Florent's role? To be honest don't really watch the Swans alot but would think he'd play alot more outside when Hewett returns? Also would love your thoughts on bringing in Long/Fort/Bewley. I rank them in that order, and genuinely believe the first 2 could average 95+ and be keepers. I'm not as concerns for Fort's job security as others seem to be.
Hi C98,
I'm not too concerned about Hewett affecting Florent's role. I'm not 100% bringing Florent in yet, as I have to see how many fires I need to put out. Even if it pushes Florent to the Wing for some of the Centre Bounces, I can still him playing a good role.

If your opinion of Long and Fort is 95+ I'd be bringing them both in this week for sure. I'm not quite as bullish as you, nor as sure of Fort's JS. I do believe you have the order right.
I'm not sold on Bewley's role for now, I'm just not sure once the new Coach dust has settled, where he fits in.
Long is cheap enough to take a risk on ($283,100 BE -10), I am bit concerned that his score was one of those totally unrealistic scores that Round 1 threw up. 7 Kicks, 7 H'ball @ 78% DE, 5 Turnovers, 78% CP rate is not sustainable, and 11 intercepts is also not likely to continue. A DT : SC of 51 : 118 must ring some alarm bells! You probably need him to average 80 to be considered a toss up between a win or break even, and I'm not 100% certain he will. With your 95+ projection, it's safe to say, you are!
Fort needs to average 75-80 to be a good pick, and if the Rucks continue to be awarded HTA's at the rate they were in Rnd 1, then I have no doubt he can do it, too. I'm not convinced the Ruck bounty continues. One Round is not a big enough sample. I'm not sold on his JS either. 2 Marks and 8 Disposals isn't fitting the model of a modern Ruck, and if he doesn't give them more, I can see Stanley coming in.

I actively encourage you, if you still hold the opinion of either Long or Fort continuing in anything like a 85+ direction, ignore my opinion, and get them both in this week.

Good luck. :)
 

Rowsus

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Harley Bennell or Trent Rivers who has the better job security and scoring potential?

Thank you for taking time to reply
I'm very confident Bennell has both the better JS and scoring potential.
I'm also fairly confident that Rivers will play more games than Bennell by seasons end!
As a Melbourne supporter I'll be thrilled if we can get 8-10 useful games out of Bennell, as a SC'er, I'd be amazed.
The question with Rivers is, does he play those games early enough in the season, or does he clog your list, with groups of missed games early on?
As it looks right now, because we are back to two trades next week, I am likely to punt on Rivers this week. I'm prepared to wait and see how Harley does this week, or even if he can get through the game!

A lot depends on selections of course, but if BZT or Starcevich miss, i'm likely to take Rivers this week, and cross my fingers!
 

lappinitup

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Agreed Juzzo.

Got both he and Roberton - theory was go two high priced rookies who I hoped could score more than one "low range mid-price" and a rookie. (My last two spots in the team filled)

Normal season I would give them both one more week to see a pattern. However, whilst not using the 5 trades this week tempting to correct early.
 

Rowsus

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Row,

Can't remember if you were a fan of Zac Bailey pre season? Were you?
I have Zac Bailey, little underwhelming round 1, hoping he can push his average to 80 plus.
Agreed Juzzo.

Got both he and Roberton - theory was go two high priced rookies who I hoped could score more than one "low range mid-price" and a rookie. (My last two spots in the team filled)

Normal season I would give them both one more week to see a pattern. However, whilst not using the 5 trades this week tempting to correct early.
lapp,
no it wasn't me, though i'm sure I saw someone mention his name. Maybe even Juzzo.
He needs to average at least 75 to be a chop out, which is about what he averaged in the pre-season.
In 28 games he has only had two scores that were 75+, which makes him a bit risky for my liking.
With Roberton being dropped, it might make your decision easy, and chopping both in favour of a Rookie + ???? might be the best move.
Good luck.
 
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Hi Row;

Bit of a slower question for you. I've got Gawndy+Comben. I'm looking to get Pitto R3 (Probably with a BZT and Green double trade next week), using DPP and bringing in the best rookie to fund the switch.

Just thought I'd check with your statistical analysis whether you have any reason not to plunk $236k on the bench.
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row;

Bit of a slower question for you. I've got Gawndy+Comben. I'm looking to get Pitto R3 (Probably with a BZT and Green double trade next week), using DPP and bringing in the best rookie to fund the switch.

Just thought I'd check with your statistical analysis whether you have any reason not to plunk $236k on the bench.
Hi Eagling,
given the way the Rucks have been scoring, and that Pittonet, Naismith, and possibly Cameron look like being some of the best earners, in a potentially tough earning year, I'd say you'd be crazy not to be heading in that sort of direction.
 

Bomber18

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Hi Row;

Bit of a slower question for you. I've got Gawndy+Comben. I'm looking to get Pitto R3 (Probably with a BZT and Green double trade next week), using DPP and bringing in the best rookie to fund the switch.

Just thought I'd check with your statistical analysis whether you have any reason not to plunk $236k on the bench.

Good analysis here as well
 
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Hi Rowsus.

What are you thoughts on trading out Josh Kelly? I am considering doing this for someone like Devon Smith. I would use the 240K to upgrade a mid pricer to a fallen premium (maybe Bont or even Kelly himself in 2 to 4 weeks)

Any other year I would know the answer to this question but this year I am not 100% sure
 

Darkie

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Hello Rowsus,

A question for you at what seems a potentially pivotal time.

With one extra, post-lockdown round of info available, to what extent do you believe that (1) game style, and (2) SC scoring independent of game style, are different this year?

And to what extent do you think this changes our preferred strategy?

Thanks,

Darkie
 
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Hi Rowsus,

I somehow brought in Nic Nat.
Do I offload for Pittonet ? Have Grundy and Terri at R3.
By completing this trade I cannot with the cash (at this stage) use it to upgrade a rookie to a premo.

The other question was what to do with Toby Greene aswell as Houston. I am thinking hanging onto Greene but he will leak cash.
Houston though I think is a regrettable pick
 

Rowsus

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Hi Row;

Bit of a slower question for you. I've got Gawndy+Comben. I'm looking to get Pitto R3 (Probably with a BZT and Green double trade next week), using DPP and bringing in the best rookie to fund the switch.

Just thought I'd check with your statistical analysis whether you have any reason not to plunk $236k on the bench.
He Eagling,
all the Pittonet discussion made me post the following in the trade thread. I hope it answers your question.

I think most should be trying to get him, even if it means parking him at R3 for a short period. If Pittonet goes:
72/72 he makes $100.7k after Rnd 4 (BE 51)
77/77/77 he makes $120.9k after Rnd 5 (BE 54)
91/91/91 he makes $152.0k after Rnd 5 (BE 44)
You are likely to be selling Rookies later in the season, that have made a lot less than those numbers above!
Some of you are worried about parking so many dollars on the bench, and feel they should be working for you. Well, let's look at that.
48.9% of Coaches have between them Xerri/Conroy/Williams/Comben in their teams, costing $102k and $124k, that are effectively parked, doing nothing! "Loopholes!" I hear you cry! I would wager over 90% of those Coaches now have other players in their list of 30, that can facilitate a Captains loophole. At least with the $236,200 Pittonet costs, it is actually actively working for you, as an investment, making dollars. Now let's look at the lost opportunity. People will say that points cost the value of the MN. I disagree, particularly when it comes to the spending of loose change. Theory will tell you, that the $113k spent to get Pittonet would net around 21 points, if used elsewhere. This rarely proves to be the case, in my experience, and instead of dividing by the MN, try dividing the loose change by 10,000, and you might get a more realistic figure. Let's work with both the 21 points in lost opportunity, and the 11 points.
My guess is, that Pittonet might get down to an average of around 88 by the time we're ready to cash him in. I'm not as bullish on his scoring from here as some. If he scores 81's from here until Rnd 9, his season average is 88, his price is $401,600 (+$165,400 BE 69). That will mean you held him for 7 Rounds, and made $165k. Now let's compare the opportunity lost, with the opportunity created.
Lost 7 Rounds @ 21 = 147, or @ 11 = 77 points lost.
Created 8 Rounds @ 165,400/5150 = 256, @16.5 = 132
So if you are using the MN method to say you have too many dollars parked on the bench, you are actually 109 points better off by having parked those dollars, and if you use the conservative $10,000/point approach, you are 55 points better off!

Now, having made what I hope is a convincing argument to get him, I'm going to argue the otherside for a moment.
I've seen people post thoughts along the lines of, if I trade player A to player B I will have enough money to turn Xerri into Pittonet.
To those people I say

STOP!!!!

Do not make 2 trades, if one of them is compromised, just to force a good cow into your team! This is very important. You do not want to to make 2 trades to get a $150k-$200k earning Cow. The first trade needs to be able to stand on it's own! ie. forget the trade that brought Pittonet in, just look at the other trade you made. Is it a trade you are happy with? Is it a trade you would make, if Pittonet didn't score 134 last week, and only scored 80? If the answer to either of these questions is "No", then I suggest Pittonet is not for you! He is not worth 2 trades, and that is what you are paying, if one of them is compromised, just to get him in!

EDIT - I can see a flaw in my logic above. The reality is a lot more complicated, and I was trying to simplify it, which isn't sitting well with me, on review.
The complication sets in, in 2 areas. Did Pittonet get used to cover a missing a R1/R2 score while sitting at R3? If so, obviously big bonus. Would the $113k got you to a Keeper, even a Psuedo Keeper? Even a weak old D6 leaking points, but saving you a trade by holding him. Then you might be better off not parking the extra dollars on the R3 bench, if the scenario pans out as explained above. If it pans out better than above, and he scores higher, makes the dollars quicker, and can be utilised quicker, then it's all the better, of course. The above scenario sort of assumes, that the player you used the $113k on, in turn, needs upgrading himself. It's a very complicated scenario, to try and compare dollars used in Rnd 3 against a much larger sum used in say Rnd 9.
Sorry if this edit has muddied the waters.
The general premise still stands. If you can get Pittonet in one trade, you should more than likely do it!
 

Rowsus

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Hi Rowsus.

What are you thoughts on trading out Josh Kelly? I am considering doing this for someone like Devon Smith. I would use the 240K to upgrade a mid pricer to a fallen premium (maybe Bont or even Kelly himself in 2 to 4 weeks)

Any other year I would know the answer to this question but this year I am not 100% sure
Hi Mudflap,
I too own Kelly, but have only had fleeting thoughts of trading him. GWS look out of sorts to me, but seem to be too good, to stay down for too long. Watching them on the weekend, they looked like most of them had their boots on the wrong foot, and things just weren't gelling for them. I think they, and hopefully Kelly, will play themselves into form.
I really don't like the idea of trading Kelly out, to bring him back in 2 to 4 weeks.
Let's look at a couple of scenarios.
If Kelly scores 100 from here, he drops $71k in 2 weeks, and $93k in 4 weeks.
No matter what you did with loose change of trading him out, as an isolated set of transactions, you have used 2 trades to net you either $71k or $93k!
If Kelly scores at 80 from here, he drops $95k in 2 weeks, or $153k in 4 weeks.
Now as yourself this, are you really going to trade him back in, if he's gone 80, 80, 80, 80?
I never like the I'll trade him out now, and back in a little later plans. There's too much that needs to go right for it to ever work, and is very counter-intuitive. I usually encourage counter-intuitive thinking, but not in this scenario.
If you don't think Kelly can resurrect his season, and get to 105+ from here, then I encourage you to trade him out, just not with the plan of getting him back again, especially not in the short term.
I'm holding for the forseeable future.
 
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He Eagling,
all the Pittonet discussion made me post the following in the trade thread. I hope it answers your question.

I think most should be trying to get him, even if it means parking him at R3 for a short period. If Pittonet goes:
72/72 he makes $100.7k after Rnd 4 (BE 51)
77/77/77 he makes $120.9k after Rnd 5 (BE 54)
91/91/91 he makes $152.0k after Rnd 5 (BE 44)
You are likely to be selling Rookies later in the season, that have made a lot less than those numbers above!
Some of you are worried about parking so many dollars on the bench, and feel they should be working for you. Well, let's look at that.
48.9% of Coaches have between them Xerri/Conroy/Williams/Comben in their teams, costing $102k and $124k, that are effectively parked, doing nothing! "Loopholes!" I hear you cry! I would wager over 90% of those Coaches now have other players in their list of 30, that can facilitate a Captains loophole. At least with the $236,200 Pittonet costs, it is actually actively working for you, as an investment, making dollars. Now let's look at the lost opportunity. People will say that points cost the value of the MN. I disagree, particularly when it comes to the spending of loose change. Theory will tell you, that the $113k spent to get Pittonet would net around 21 points, if used elsewhere. This rarely proves to be the case, in my experience, and instead of dividing by the MN, try dividing the loose change by 10,000, and you might get a more realistic figure. Let's work with both the 21 points in lost opportunity, and the 11 points.
My guess is, that Pittonet might get down to an average of around 88 by the time we're ready to cash him in. I'm not as bullish on his scoring from here as some. If he scores 81's from here until Rnd 9, his season average is 88, his price is $401,600 (+$165,400 BE 69). That will mean you held him for 7 Rounds, and made $165k. Now let's compare the opportunity lost, with the opportunity created.
Lost 7 Rounds @ 21 = 147, or @ 11 = 77 points lost.
Created 8 Rounds @ 165,400/5150 = 256, @16.5 = 132
So if you are using the MN method to say you have too many dollars parked on the bench, you are actually 109 points better off by having parked those dollars, and if you use the conservative $10,000/point approach, you are 55 points better off!

Now, having made what I hope is a convincing argument to get him, I'm going to argue the otherside for a moment.
I've seen people post thoughts along the lines of, if I trade player A to player B I will have enough money to turn Xerri into Pittonet.
To those people I say

STOP!!!!

Do not make 2 trades, if one of them is compromised, just to force a good cow into your team! This is very important. You do not want to to make 2 trades to get a $150k-$200k earning Cow. The first trade needs to be able to stand on it's own! ie. forget the trade that brought Pittonet in, just look at the other trade you made. Is it a trade you are happy with? Is it a trade you would make, if Pittonet didn't score 134 last week, and only scored 80? If the answer to either of these questions is "No", then I suggest Pittonet is not for you! He is not worth 2 trades, and that is what you are paying, if one of them is compromised, just to get him in!

EDIT - I can see a flaw in my logic above. The reality is a lot more complicated, and I was trying to simplify it, which isn't sitting well with me, on review.
The complication sets in, in 2 areas. Did Pittonet get used to cover a missing a R1/R2 score while sitting at R3? If so, obviously big bonus. Would the $113k got you to a Keeper, even a Psuedo Keeper? Even a weak old D6 leaking points, but saving you a trade by holding him. Then you might be better off not parking the extra dollars on the R3 bench, if the scenario pans out as explained above. If it pans out better than above, and he scores higher, makes the dollars quicker, and can be utilised quicker, then it's all the better, of course. The above scenario sort of assumes, that the player you used the $113k on, in turn, needs upgrading himself. It's a very complicated scenario, to try and compare dollars used in Rnd 3 against a much larger sum used in say Rnd 9.
Sorry if this edit has muddied the waters.
The general premise still stands. If you can get Pittonet in one trade, you should more than likely do it!
Thanks for the very excellent advice.

In my case, it will be two trades to get Pittonet, but two trades I'd be making anyway - Green and BZT out, so I really see it as rookie adjustment myself.

I wondered if it's better to double-up on the cheaper rookies but figured the chance of Pitto ripening faster was much better.
 

Rowsus

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Hello Rowsus,

A question for you at what seems a potentially pivotal time.

With one extra, post-lockdown round of info available, to what extent do you believe that (1) game style, and (2) SC scoring independent of game style, are different this year?

And to what extent do you think this changes our preferred strategy?

Thanks,

Darkie
Hello Darkie,
to my eye, the game is quicker, and generally there is more pressure this season, due to the shorter quarters, longer breaks, and fresher players. I also think the umpires are paying a few more free kicks than previously, which I like. Stoppages make for too much scrum play, and repeat stoppages.
With quarters 20% shorter, it would be a bit simplistic to say all the stats would also be down by 20%. Let's have a look at some, and see, comparing this season with last season.
Kicks down 22.4%
H'balls down 21.7%
Marks down 26.6% - players getting to more contest, spoiling more marks
Contested Marks down 26.6%
Goals down 17.2% - players in general less tired when shooting for goal
Behinds down 30.2%
Tackles down 26.1% - combination more frees, faster play
Frees down
15.3% - more being paid!
Bounces down
47.7% - players don't get as much freedom to run away from tired players!
Hitouts down 21.7%
I'm not sure any of this helps us from a SC point of view, unfortunately.
In theory, everything is worth 25% more now, as there is 20% less happening. Theory, but not practice, as we can see.
Some will think that should read 20% higher, but reduce it to a very simple example. Say previously there were 5 scoring acts in a quarter, worth 1 point each. total given 5 points. There are now only 4 scoring acts (20% less), so each needs to be worth 1.25 points (25% more), to maintain the 5 points given.
To my eye, goals, particularly goals early in a quarter/game are getting well rewarded. I think it's even more important to find goal kicking Mids this season, rather accumulators. Contested Possession are down 21.2%, so in line with expectations. They also seem to be getting well rewarded. I still think i'd rather a Mid that kicked 1-2 goals each game, with a CP rate of say 40%, than a mid that averages 0.5 goals, with a CP rate of 55%.
 
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